Liberal Minority Government 2021 - ????

[QV]

The US was already our major trading partner (accounting for two thirds of our global trade) and most goods crossed the borders in both directions duty free due to CUSMA. How much closer can you get without becoming the 51st State?

An EU like relationship.

 

[GR66]

An EU like relationship.

The EU is 27 nations that have come together to find mutually agreeable standards to apply to all members...and certainly not all Europeans are happy with the results of the compromises that have been necessary to get those agreements.

Canada and the US are just two countries with one partner having massive economic and demographic dominance over the other. What chances are there that the "negotiations" on the common standards on things like immigration rules, industrial policy, environmental standards, etc. will see compromise rather than adoption of US standards/rules across the board?

If we are to simply adopt US policy on everything then aren't we just Americans in everything other than name?

 

[Jarnhamar]

and even the conservatives shelve their beliefs to get elected. This is all to common.

Fair.

I keep reading about Poilievre not having a plan. Have you heard about what Carneys plan is? I've only seen him say he hopes to speak to Trump sometime soon.

 

[Remius]

An EU like relationship.

The US won’t give up its dollar and will not share an equal seat with us.


A non starter. The EU is a multilateral arrangement. That won’t work bilaterally.

We already had one of the best bilateral arrangements in the world. It’s now being thrown out by our partners to the south.

 

[QV]

The EU is 27 nations that have come together to find mutually agreeable standards to apply to all members...and certainly not all Europeans are happy with the results of the compromises that have been necessary to get those agreements.

Canada and the US are just two countries with one partner having massive economic and demographic dominance over the other. What chances are there that the "negotiations" on the common standards on things like immigration rules, industrial policy, environmental standards, etc. will see compromise rather than adoption of US standards/rules across the board?

If we are to simply adopt US policy on everything then aren't we just Americans in everything other than name?

I won't situate the estimate. I want to see details.

 

[Remius]

Fair.

I keep reading about Poilievre not having a plan. Have you heard about what Carneys plan is? I've only seen him say he hopes to speak to Trump sometime soon.

From what I see from Carney is smaller gvt, more investment in industry (deficit spending limited to that). A need to expand to other markets to get off US reliance. Looks like initial messaging that any new defence spending should be made elsewhere other than the US. A walk back on consumer carbon tax. Among other stuff but it all has an economic bent to all of it. Basically he wants to move the party to the fiscal center.

 

[Remius]

I won't situate the estimate. I want to see details.

There are no details because there is no plan for that. You are proposing that. No one at any level has. Not Carney and not PP. all we have from the US is an annexation offer.

 

[PuckChaser]

Trump just showed us that the US is a single point of failure.

We should never be in that position again.

We're going to be. Canadians are polling support for the party that put us there over the last 10 years. No pipelines, no tankers, industrial carbon tax... take your pick. They won't remove that stuff either, they owe their support to the true believers of green shift.

 

[Remius]

We're going to be. Canadians are polling support for the party that put us there over the last 10 years. No pipelines, no tankers, industrial carbon tax... take your pick. They won't remove that stuff either, they owe their support to the true believers of green shift.

It isn’t just that party that put us there.

It’s time to shift away from the US. As mentioned, if we want to expand to other markets those markets are demanding an industrial carbon tax to play with them.

We’ll never be completely cut from the US but we don’t have to sacrifice our economic sovereignty to them either.

The damage with the US is done. Let’s see what’s on offer going forward.

Those here in Canada that wanted trumpism are getting what they want. Just not in the way they thought it would down.

 

[QV]

There are no details because there is no plan for that. You are proposing that. No one at any level has. Not Carney and not PP. all we have from the US is an annexation offer.

The first offer was put out, the first answer came. There is somewhere in the middle to land that isn't status quo. We'll get there.

 

[Remius]

The first offer was put out, the first answer came. There is somewhere in the middle to land that isn't status quo. We'll get there.

The middle is where we were to begin with. Nothing else is being offered and the first offer is being repeated.

No is not answer they seem to understand.

Now it seems Canadians want as much distance from the US as they can. None of this is making us closer.

 

[QV]

It isn’t just that party that put us there.

It’s time to shift away from the US. As mentioned, if we want to expand to other markets those markets are demanding an industrial carbon tax to play with them.

We’ll never be completely cut from the US but we don’t have to sacrifice our economic sovereignty to them either.

The damage with the US is done. Let’s see what’s on offer going forward.

Those here in Canada that wanted trumpism are getting what they want. Just not in the way they thought it would down.

I saw a post on X that said they'll happily pay $10 an egg to see where this goes.

Trumpism to many is change. And that's what's coming.

For those in Canada that are on the cancel-everything-USA, including those musing about cancelling the F-35 deal, they are only going to hurt themselves/Canada. Especially if they think Canada will get some magical deal better than anything the US can offer. EU and other countries care even less about Canada than the US does.

 

[Remius]

I saw a post on X that said they'll happily pay $10 an egg to see where this goes.

I can’t say I really care what Americans pay for their eggs. That has more to do with their deregulation of that industry that led to bird flu.

Trumpism to many is change. And that's what's coming.

It is but we don’t have to embrace that.

For those in Canada that are on the cancel-everything-USA, including those musing about cancelling the F-35 deal, they are only going to hurt themselves/Canada. Especially if they think Canada will get some magical deal better than anything the US can offer. EU and other countries care even less about Canada than the US does.

Harper said it best with his Harper Doctrine when it comes to hurting ourselves to save our sovereignty.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Oh I think it did. Free land or Gould would not get my vote. Carney might. And it seems he’s attracting PC types ...

And note Gould - who was noticeably more progressive than others in the leadership race - as well as Guilbeault, didn't make it past the latest cabnet velvet rope, either.

Only one point on the chart, but interesting nonetheless.

Conservatives Crumble: Liberals surge past CPC into majority territory, but Grits’ vote commitment is softer -

Singh’s party down to single digits as left of centre voters stampede away from the NDP March 17, 2025 – A whirlwind first quarter of 2025 has swept up Canadian politics and tossed it back down in an unrecognizable jumble. New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the governing...

angusreid.org

The overall aggregate trends at this point (via 338Canada) ...

... seem to point to a very generally neck-and-neck race. Again, as others say, the only poll that counts is the election, but dumping PMJT seems to have helped more than I would have thought it might.

Also interesting seeing Team Orange continue to sink overall since PMJT jumped ship.

 

[ArmyRick]

Campaigns matter?

You didn't get my point.

If Trudeau was a fresh face in 2025 with his very "heart warming, big smiles" campaigning style, he absolutely could win. However, as reality is, Trudeau had zero chance of winning an election in 2025 no matter how charming and how well he worked the crowd. He had long worn on everyone, including Liberals.

Carney? That man has the charm and friendliness of a hermit crab. The tree branch laying in my front yard has more social skills than Carney.
He is relying on his reputation as a banker and the CBC to campaign for him. Not a good look.

Do you remember what I said some time ago what the most dangerous thing the Liberals could do? I said was to change their leader. And they did.

So then your answer is stay the course. Nothing to see here. Ok.

Thats not what I said and you know it. They need to hold onto the Canada first message, the 4 pillars (Ax the Tax, Build the homes, Stop the crime, grow the economy) and keep digging at Liberal wounds. Now, lets see where else they take this fight. We have an election to get to very soon, and they may have to wait to see what fumbles Carney makes. Then exploit it.

So then the CPC should keep on messsge

Build on the core message. The CPC has been much more consistent. Its a hell of alot better than the Liberals. 4 months ago "Carbon tax is needed, Clean energy blah, blah, blah, don't build pipelines" to now "Bye bye carbon tax (sort of), we need lots of energy and lets build pipelines, somehow by passing Quebec" The Liberal message is inconsistent. You can only fool Canadians for so long.

Lets see what happens when the writ is dropped. If the "scary bad orange man" pipes down for five minutes, the weak Canadians that hyper focus on him will be distracted and then we shall see what happens.

Then again. Maybe Trump wants the Liberals to win, so that when ALberta and Saskatchewan separate and join the states, he will have two more aces.

 

[ArmyRick]

dumping PMJT seems to have helped more than I would have thought it might.

Oh wow, look, I guessed that one correctly (Don't believe me, go look at my post history)

Team Orange continue to sink overall

I was correct about this too it appears. I said it many times that there was a price to pay for Singh backing Trudeau to the extent he did. Had he backed a non-confidence vote last October, he could have very well been the Opposition now.

My big unknown? What has the BQ got up their sleeve?

 

[The Bread Guy]

Oh wow, look, I guessed that one correctly (Don't believe me, go look at my post history)

Fair enough - I figured Team Red's ship was already taking on WAY too much water to ever turn around, even with the lightning rod gone.

 

[ArmyRick]

Fair enough - I figured Team Red's ship was already taking on WAY too much water to ever turn around, even with the lightning rod gone.

Carney could surprise us all. If he gets his cabinet to speak more often in public (Dominic Leblanc is good with the media), it may well get him to the finish line. But if everyone is waiting for grand mastery economic and financial plans to be revealed to wow us all, eeek. He doesn't do that well speaking to the media and in layman's terms.

 

[Remius]

You didn't get my point.

Oh I did. In the past you bemoaned that particular saying. Glad you finally came over to campaigns do matter.

If Trudeau was a fresh face in 2025 with his very "heart warming, big smiles" campaigning style, he absolutely could win. However, as reality is, Trudeau had zero chance of winning an election in 2025 no matter how charming and how well he worked the crowd. He had long worn on everyone, including Liberals.

He would have to have come in after a tired government as well. And I agree he had no chance of winning at all. That isn’t the argument but it cements the idea that the other side is not that appealing and is only appealing despite themselves

Carney? That man has the charm and friendliness of a hermit crab.

They said that about Harper. I think people are looking for competence and substance not flash and jingoisms. Bothe Trudeau and PP have those in spades.

The tree branch laying in my front yard has more social skills than Carney.
He is relying on his reputation as a banker and the CBC to campaign for him. Not a good look.

That’s what the opposition is trying to frame. Not everyone is falling for it.

Do you remember what I said some time ago what the most dangerous thing the Liberals could do? I said was to change their leader. And they did.

The most dangerous thing to the CPC yes. Because as I said they are victims of their own success by making Trudeau the villain. The villain is now gone.

Thats not what I said and you know it. They need to hold onto the Canada first message, the 4 pillars (Ax the Tax, Build the homes, Stop the crime, grow the economy) and keep digging at Liberal wounds. Now, lets see where else they take this fight. We have an election to get to very soon, and they may have to wait to see what fumbles Carney makes. Then exploit it.

Your original objection was to the premise that the the current CPC strategy needed a pivot. It included a bunch of stuff about carney and cheering crowds for PP. when asked if that meant staying in the current course then, you didn’t really say no.

Build on the core message. The CPC has been much more consistent. Its a hell of alot better than the Liberals. 4 months ago "Carbon tax is needed, Clean energy blah, blah, blah, don't build pipelines" to now "Bye bye carbon tax (sort of), we need lots of energy and lets build pipelines, somehow by passing Quebec" The Liberal message is inconsistent. You can only fool Canadians for so long.

Perhaps. But the current guy might actually be convincing and more so than what the other side is offering.

Lets see what happens when the writ is dropped. If the "scary bad orange man" pipes down for five minutes, the weak Canadians that hyper focus on him will be distracted and then we shall see what happens.

lol. He won’t. But your statement is exactly why the polls are closing. This election issue is the issue going in. The CPC is missing the mark so far.

Then again. Maybe Trump wants the Liberals to win, so that when ALberta and Saskatchewan separate and join the states.

Maybe. But even in their current polling they don’t seem to keen on that either. Trudeau is gone so they are not nearly as militant about it I think.

 

[ArmyRick]

Lets see what happens when the writ is dropped.

@Remius Lets see. We will find out very soon here this nation stands.