US Presidential Election 2024 - Trump vs Harris - Vote Hard with a Vengence

[Lumber]

Polls are just measurements; so, yes, they are inaccurate and subject to human orneriness. They're more useful than motivated hope.

A problem with Lichtman's method is operator bias. Someone has to make a judgement call on each question. If bias sways judgement, the output is untrustworthy/indeterminate.

There's also Nate Silver's model. Included here is a chart of win probabilities for ranges of national popular vote polls. You have to use his polling average; looking up the RCP average in the Silver Bulletin chart would be close to meaningless.

Silver has the average at D+1.3 as of yesterday; in the D+1 to +2 bracket that gives Harris a 26.3% chance. (At D+0 to +1 her chance is 7.7%.)

The RCP average today is at "tied".

I doubt two weeks of "Trump is approximately Hitler" is going to sway voters; people have found instances of "the Republican is practically Hitler" going back to Goldwater (60 years). And I see that the Cheney endorsements have aroused reactions from nausea to ire among far left progressives. If Harris loses, the recriminations circus is going to be exceptional this year.

Yes I was very careful to use Licthman as example of the hostile climate, and not as a reference for why I think Harris will win.

I also doubt comparing Trump to Hitler will sway any voters. In fact, I think it will be detrimental to the Democrats as it will fire up Trumps base and encourage more of them to vote.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Yes I was very careful to use Licthman as example of the hostile climate, and not as a reference for why I think Harris will win.

I also doubt comparing Trump to Hitler will sway any voters. In fact, I think it will be detrimental to the Democrats as it will fire up Trumps base and encourage more of them to vote.

Turnout is one thing. Turning off independents is another risk.

 

[brihard]

The LA Times and Washington Post are not endorsing anyone this year... even though the American Mussolini is on the ballot. Goes to show what hot air the dictator accusations really are.

The LA Times editorial board were going to endorse Harris and were ordered not to by the paper’s owner. Several members of the editorial board have resigned in protest. While it’s not clear what precise point you were trying to make, I think you’ll struggle to connect your claim to supporting facts unless you try to dodge context.

Los Angeles Times sees resignations and loss of subscriptions after owner blocks Harris endorsement | Los Angeles Times | The Guardian

Biotech billionaire Patrick Soon-Shiong, who bought the newspaper in 2018, wouldn’t let board endorse Harris

amp.theguardian.com

 

[QV]

The LA Times editorial board were going to endorse Harris and were ordered not to by the paper’s owner. Several members of the editorial board have resigned in protest. While it’s not clear what precise point you were trying to make, I think you’ll struggle to connect your claim to supporting facts unless you try to dodge context.

Los Angeles Times sees resignations and loss of subscriptions after owner blocks Harris endorsement | Los Angeles Times | The Guardian

Biotech billionaire Patrick Soon-Shiong, who bought the newspaper in 2018, wouldn’t let board endorse Harris

amp.theguardian.com

Which is a notable event nonetheless in the context of the final days of this election run.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

It's all the democrats have left. They've gone through their whole bag of tricks trying to make Harris/ Walz palpable to voters, without success. All they can do now is try demonize Trump by calling him hitler, unhinged, imbalanced, a fascist. Clinton and other deranged democrats are crowing about Trump using Madison Square Gardens, just like the nazi gathering there in 1939. In fact there has been 4 DNC Nomination Conventions at Madison Square Gardens, including one for Slick Willie. Does that makes all democrats nazi fascists?

Democrats are desperate and panicking. It'll just get more and more hilariously outlandish until the election.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Would your prefer Elon Goebbels?

I love the way you always showcase your intelligence

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Apparently, this is nothing new. Democrats have for years hauled out the fascist nazi trope as a last ditch effort in desperate times for their party.

Reductio ad Hitlerum: 60 years of Democrats falsely calling the Republican nominee a fascist

Reductio ad Hitlerum: 60 years of Democrats falsely calling the Republican nominee a fascist - Washington Examiner

Democrats have been falsely labeling the Republican presidential candidate a fascist for 60 years. It’s an integral part of their political playbook.

www.washingtonexaminer.com

 

[Lumber]

It's all the democrats have left. They've gone through their whole bag of tricks trying to make Harris/ Walz palpable to voters, without success. All they can do now is try demonize Trump by calling him hitler, unhinged, imbalanced, a fascist. Clinton and other deranged democrats are crowing about Trump using Madison Square Gardens, just like the nazi gathering there in 1939. In fact there has been 4 DNC Nomination Conventions at Madison Square Gardens, including one for Slick Willie. Does that makes all democrats nazi fascists?

Democrats are desperate and panicking. It'll just get more and more hilariously outlandish until the election.

Seriously, where do you get your info from? Everything you are saying is like a copy and paste of the sycophantic drivel I read on Twitter. You're making all these claims as absolutes with absolutely no basis.

It is not all that democrats have left. They have a huge ground game and they are travelling the country campaigning. There are absolutely no signs that they are desperate and panicking (again, those are exact words I've seen used many many times recently by Trump supporters without any kind of evidence).

Now to your specific claim, form the sounds of it (correct me if Im wrong) you actually believe Harris called Trump Hitler. Except, that never happened.

John Kelly, a REPUBLICAN, is the one who brought it up, and even he didn't call Trump Hitler. He simply claimed that Trump said two things in regards to Hitler, 1. "Well, Hitler did a lot of good things", and 2. that Trump needed “the kind of generals that Hitler had.”. As an overall assessment, he then claimed that Trump fit the definition of a fascist. Oh, and if you or anyone wants to claim that those are just the words of a disenfranchised former employee of Trump, 13 former Trump administration officials (ALL REPUBLICANS) signed open letter backing up John Kelly's criticism of Trump.

How Harris even got brought into this was when asked about Kelly's assessment. Harris: "It is clear from John Kelly's words that Donald Trump is someone who I quote 'certainly falls into the general definition of fascist.' Who in fact, vowed to be a dictator on day one, and vowed to use the military as his personal militia to carry out his personal and political vendettas.' Asked directly if she believes Trump is a "fascist", she said, "Yes I do. And I also believe that the people who know him best on this subject should be trusted."

So, she never said he was Hitler, but she did say he fit the description of a fascist.

Finally, if we want to bring up presidential nominees bringing up bullshit names of others without substantiation:

"Comrade Kamala"..."She’s a Marxist. She’s a fascist,”

 

[RangerRay]

Yes it’s was a mistake of the left to refer to garden-variety conservatives and the liberal right as fascists or “far-right”. It was always ridiculous. Because when the fascists did show up and the left went “Look! Fascists!”, the right said “Yeah, right. We heard that one before”.

Now, we have those on the liberal right saying Trump fits the bill of a fascist. But the left’s damage is done. Everyone shrugs.

The right risks doing the same by calling the liberal left “Marxist” or “communist”.

 

[Remius]

Seems all par for the course. Polarized left call the right facists and the polarized right calling the left Marxists and communists.

Retread scare: Trump and other Republicans evoke another era by calling Democrats 'communists'

Former President Donald Trump's arraignment in federal court has highlighted a popular strategy among Republicans: likening their opponents to "Marxists" and "communists."

www.pbs.org

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Seriously, where do you get your info from? Everything you are saying is like a copy and paste of the sycophantic drivel I read on Twitter. You're making all these claims as absolutes with absolutely no basis.

It is not all that democrats have left. They have a huge ground game and they are travelling the country campaigning. There are absolutely no signs that they are desperate and panicking (again, those are exact words I've seen used many many times recently by Trump supporters without any kind of evidence).

Now to your specific claim, form the sounds of it (correct me if Im wrong) you actually believe Harris called Trump Hitler. Except, that never happened.

John Kelly, a REPUBLICAN, is the one who brought it up, and even he didn't call Trump Hitler. He simply claimed that Trump said two things in regards to Hitler, 1. "Well, Hitler did a lot of good things", and 2. that Trump needed “the kind of generals that Hitler had.”. As an overall assessment, he then claimed that Trump fit the definition of a fascist. Oh, and if you or anyone wants to claim that those are just the words of a disenfranchised former employee of Trump, 13 former Trump administration officials (ALL REPUBLICANS) signed open letter backing up John Kelly's criticism of Trump.

How Harris even got brought into this was when asked about Kelly's assessment. Harris: "It is clear from John Kelly's words that Donald Trump is someone who I quote 'certainly falls into the general definition of fascist.' Who in fact, vowed to be a dictator on day one, and vowed to use the military as his personal militia to carry out his personal and political vendettas.' Asked directly if she believes Trump is a "fascist", she said, "Yes I do. And I also believe that the people who know him best on this subject should be trusted."

So, she never said he was Hitler, but she did say he fit the description of a fascist.

Finally, if we want to bring up presidential nominees bringing up bullshit names of others without substantiation:

"Comrade Kamala"..."She’s a Marxist. She’s a fascist,”

It's an opinion. Just as informed as yours. Just from the opposite side.

I could sit here and write a comparable scree, like yours, outlining the outlandish bullshit coming from your posts.

It's simple, unless I fall in line with your fantasies, you'll continue to perform angry contortions in order to attack me.

In the big scheme of things, neither of us will agree with each other. You get to decide the tone of the the exchanges. Come out at me like your first paragraph and things can get as nasty as you want. My opinions don't sit well with everyone, but neither do yours. If they are not pro democrat, they're bullshit as far as you're concerned. And don't talk to me about absolutes. You wear that same mantle except in your case, there's no absolutes unless they're yours. Show me where I said Harris called Trump hitler. I didn't. Just proves my point about your biased bullshit.

Bottom line.

note:Fundamental freedoms

2 Everyone has the following fundamental freedoms:

• (a) freedom of conscience and religion;
• (b) freedom of thought, belief, opinion and expression, including freedom of the press and other media of communication;
• (c) freedom of peaceful assembly; and
• (d) freedom of association.

You have the right to disagree just as much as I do. But just dismissing another opinion while planting your flag in the same sand isn't discussion, nor does it make you right.

I'm not doing this here, anymore, with you.

HAGO

 

[dimsum]

It's an opinion. Just as informed as yours. Just from the opposite side.

I could sit here and write a comparable scree, like yours, outlining the outlandish bullshit coming from your posts.

It's simple, unless I fall in line with your fantasies, you'll continue to perform angry contortions in order to attack me.

In the big scheme of things, neither of us will agree with each other. You get to decide the tone of the the exchanges. Come out at me like your first paragraph and things can get as nasty as you want. My opinions don't sit well with everyone, but neither do yours. If they are not pro democrat, they're bullshit as far as you're concerned. And don't talk to me about absolutes. You wear that same mantle except in your case, there's no absolutes unless they're yours.

Bottom line.

note:Fundamental freedoms

2 Everyone has the following fundamental freedoms:

• (a) freedom of conscience and religion;
• (b) freedom of thought, belief, opinion and expression, including freedom of the press and other media of communication;
• (c) freedom of peaceful assembly; and
• (d) freedom of association.

You have the right to disagree just as much as I do. But just dismissing another opinion while planting your flag in the same sand isn't discussion, nor does it make you right.

I'm not doing this here, anymore, with you.

HAGO

That is, almost word for word, what I was going to retort with.

Thanks for writing it for me.

 

[Lumber]

That is, almost word for word, what I was going to retort with.

Thanks for writing it for me.

Ugh, I gotta fight with you now too? I

 

[KevinB]

I love the way you always showcase your intelligence

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/25/musk-putin-conversations-investigated-00185543

Musk who is a massive DoD contractor has been having conversations with Putin - which is ILLEGAL.

Then we have John Kelly and others on the state of DJT

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/25/never-trump-former-officials-back-kelly-warning-00185435

and DJT's response to Gen Kelly (USMC ret.)

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/23/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/trump-john-kelly-military-00185207

 

[Fishbone Jones]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/25/musk-putin-conversations-investigated-00185543

Musk who is a massive DoD contractor has been having conversations with Putin - which is ILLEGAL.

Your own quoted article uses the phrase "I don’t know that that story is true." or a variation of the same a number of times. Let's wait until it's proven before going all Russia, Russia, Russia. Unless it's somewhere in the Steele Dossier, then it's a for sure.

I'm not sure what my statement to Lumber has to do with your possibly incorrect comment.

Edit: this is all based on a report in the WSJ and a couple of democrats.

The US is not at war with the Russians. Why would anyone not be allowed to talk to them? There are sanctions, but has Musk broken any of those? Musk is the richest man in the world, with businesses and contacts around the world. Is he supposed to curtail his businesses because of some potentially false rumours started by partisan democrats in the rundown to an election? This reminds me of how pissy the left got when he took over Twitter.

Imagine if Obama and Biden were maintaining contact with Iran while Trump was POTUS. Oh wait.........

 

[KevinB]

Your own quoted article uses the phrase "I don’t know that that story is true." or a variation of the same a number of times. Let's wait until it's proven before going all Russia, Russia, Russia. Unless it's somewhere in the Steele Dossier, then it's a for sure.

Well given Russian links to him, and some of the money he borrowed to acquire Twitter, I see no reason to doubt it, as well as a slew of different articles and leaks from the Intelligence Community

I'm not sure what my statement to Lumber has to do with your possibly incorrect comment.

Well I originally called him a South African Nazi that you took issue with and @Lumber offered a maybe more accurate description.

Edit: this is all based on a report in the WSJ and a couple of democrats.

The US is not at war with the Russians. Why would anyone not be allowed to talk to them?

So we have laws about talking to foreign governments as a private citizen or a company -- It is specifically forbidden, Trump still does it - but I mean par for the course for a convicted felon right?

There are sanctions, but has Musk broken any of those?

More than sanctions - we have actual laws that forbid that -- as well as the fact he holds a US DoD Security Clearance - I guess he takes his guidance for ignoring that from Trump too.

Musk is the richest man in the world, with businesses and contacts around the world. Is he supposed to curtail his businesses because of some potentially false rumours started by partisan democrats in the rundown to an election?

Russia being under sanction and the fact we have three other laws on the books that forbid it?

This reminds me of how pissy the left got when he took over Twitter.

The fact that Twitter took on propagating Russian Disinformation is not a good look.

Imagine if Obama and Biden were maintaining contact with Iran while Trump was POTUS. Oh wait.........

Then they should be charged too. If Trump's DoJ didn't that is not a reason that others can conduct illegal activity too...

 

[KevinB]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2024/trump-harris-policy-quiz/

Not a very detailed poll IMHO - but not shocked I was more closely aligned policy wise with the Trumpster, and if he wasn't such a douche I'd vote for him.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Some of the other election stuff going on there

 

[Lumber]

It's an opinion. Just as informed as yours. Just from the opposite side.

I could sit here and write a comparable scree, like yours, outlining the outlandish bullshit coming from your posts.

It's simple, unless I fall in line with your fantasies, you'll continue to perform angry contortions in order to attack me.

In the big scheme of things, neither of us will agree with each other. You get to decide the tone of the the exchanges. Come out at me like your first paragraph and things can get as nasty as you want. My opinions don't sit well with everyone, but neither do yours. If they are not pro democrat, they're bullshit as far as you're concerned. And don't talk to me about absolutes. You wear that same mantle except in your case, there's no absolutes unless they're yours. Show me where I said Harris called Trump hitler. I didn't. Just proves my point about your biased bullshit.

Bottom line.

note:Fundamental freedoms

2 Everyone has the following fundamental freedoms:

• (a) freedom of conscience and religion;
• (b) freedom of thought, belief, opinion and expression, including freedom of the press and other media of communication;
• (c) freedom of peaceful assembly; and
• (d) freedom of association.

You have the right to disagree just as much as I do. But just dismissing another opinion while planting your flag in the same sand isn't discussion, nor does it make you right.

I'm not doing this here, anymore, with you.

HAGO

You know Fishbone, I really don't give you enough credit. I attack you for coming on here and promoting/pushing unsubstantiated opinions, angry that you haven't looked into their veracity, and parroting (in my opinion) right wing propaganda. However, in reality, sharing them here on and getting push back IS doing your homework and finding out where the weakness lie in the information you consume elsewhere. So, good on you, really.

Oh and by the way:

"Show me where I said Harris called Trump hitler."

Here:

All they can do now is try demonize Trump by calling him hitler, unhinged, imbalanced, a fascist.

Unless "they" democrats doesn't SPECIFICALLY include Harris, in that case, never mind.

(also, I clearly indicated in my post that I wasn't sure if that was what you were actually saying and said in my post that you were free to correct me if I was wrong about your claim)

 

[The Bread Guy]

... par for the course for a convicted felon right? ...

Hey, hey, hey, now - didn't you get the memo saying he's not a "convicted" felon until he's sentenced?