US Presidential Election 2020

[brihard]

Well lets just hope for a peaceful and decisive outcome,.....however it falls.  I wish politicians  knew they work for the people, not the party.

Yup. However this plays out, tomorrow neighbours will still be neighbours. There will be a Democrat party, a Republican party, each will hold some portion of the federal and state legislature, some distribution of governorships... There will then be midterms, and a next presidential election. There will be court cases, house debates, fillibusters and legislative wrangling... all of the normal mechanisms of legislature and governance, in all their ugliness.

Whatever the result, America and Americans - and everyone else - will have to learn to live with it. If it’s a change in presidency, there must, must, MUST be a peaceful transition of power. The survival of America’s democratic experiment depends on that. If there is not a change in presidency, both parties have some deep soul searching to do for different reasons.

A new generation of voters is coming of age, and it’s terribly important that they don’t think that what we’ve seen as a style of governance and politics has to be the accepted norm. However wins, America in its entirety has to do better than what we’ve seen. There’s a dignity and decency that has been lost in politics and that must be rebuilt.

 

[PMedMoe]

Watching the Trump rally in MI. The video compilation they put together on Biden is gold!

Yeah, I guess it's hilarious for Trump to make fun of Biden.  :

"The Biden video at yesterday’s rally was paired with a clip of a sputtering Jim Carrey from the 1997 film Liar Liar. It was a shrewd, crude attack: Carrey’s character in the movie is incoherent every time he’s about to lie, which is often, and Carrey now plays Biden on Saturday Night Live. Bumbling equals stuttering equals slapstick equals Biden. Or maybe he’s just a liar? On it goes. Trump’s campaign staged five rallies yesterday and another five are scheduled for today. The president grips the podium, fearmongers across disparate topics, the Biden blooper reel rolls, and thousands of Americans laugh at the guy who can’t talk.

Joe Biden does not need our pity. He is a 77-year-old wealthy white man with a loving family and a beach house on the Delaware coast. By running for president this third and final time, Biden has opted in to a level of criticism that few can fathom. Biden’s platform and policies deserve scrutiny, as do his votes in the Senate. He doesn’t require kid gloves—the media have and will continue to talk about his role on the Senate Judiciary Committee during the Clarence Thomas hearings, his sponsorship of the 1994 crime bill, his criticism of federally mandated busing, his current stances on fracking and court packing, and other contentious aspects of his record.

But Biden, along with the 3 million other Americans who wake up every morning and try to manage the neurological disability known as stuttering, is worthy of simple decency and respect when attempting to speak. Trump is incapable of offering either."

Source: The Banality of Trump’s Hatred

 

[mariomike]

Watching the Trump rally in MI. The video compilation they put together on Biden is gold!

Yeah, I guess it's hilarious for Trump to make fun of Biden.  :

Here's one for the trumpsters. 

Trigger warning!
https://twitter.com/donwinslow/status/1323404202442280961

 

[dapaterson]

“Donald Trump closes his re-election campaign with a supercut of himself dancing to a song about cruising for gay sex” is not an eventuality for which queer theory was prepared.

https://twitter.com/benwritesthings/status/1323541104386605056?s=09

 

[Retired AF Guy]

In case anyone is interested here s a list of when the polls close state-by-state:

-6 pm ET: Indiana (Eastern time region), Kentucky (E)

-7 pm ET: Florida (E), Georgia, Indiana (Central time region), Kentucky (C), New Hampshire (varies by municipality), South Carolina, Virginia, Vermont

-7:30 pm ET: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia

-8 pm ET: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida (C), Illinois, Kansas (C), Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan (E), Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire (varies by municipality), New Jersey, North Dakota (C), Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota (C), Tennessee, Texas (C), Washington, DC

-8:30 pm ET: Arkansas

-9 pm ET: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas (Mountain time region), Louisiana, Michigan (C), Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota (M), South Dakota (M), Texas (M), Wisconsin, Wyoming

-10 pm ET: Idaho (M), Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Oregon (M), Utah

-11 pm ET: California, Idaho (P), Oregon (P), Washington
    Midnight ET: Alaska (Alaska time region), Hawaii
   
-1 am ET: Alaska (Hawaii-Aleutian time region)

Link  Also lists state closures alphabetically.

 

[dimsum]

I'm usually pretty wary of the "listen to me - I'm a war vet!" article, but this has some good points.

War veteran: Principles belong to people, not political parties | COMMENTARY

As veterans, we were taught during our military training that if we find ourselves lost in battle, listen for the gunfire, then run toward it. For most civilians this is counterintuitive — deliberately putting yourself in harm’s way. Yet for service members, that’s where your brothers and sisters are, and they need help.

As veterans we understand what it means to serve others, to have an overriding purpose and mission that is greater than any one of us. We came together to serve from all over the country and the world, but we all raised our right hands and swore to defend the same Constitution. We came from different backgrounds, worshipped God in different ways and had different colors of skin, but we learned to see beyond all that. We learned to do so because the more time we spent with each other, the less those differences mattered. Those differences made us stronger. They made us better. For us, that is precisely what e pluribus unum means. Out of many, we became one.

We were taught the importance of honor and integrity and that the greatest trait a leader can possess is character. We were taught the importance of doing the harder right instead of the easier wrong. The harder right. We’re given that challenge because moral courage doesn’t come easy. To be morally courageous is to perpetually look at the paths we have before us and consistently choose the right path, especially when it’s difficult. It’s a challenge to our own integrity, to take the path we know to be right because it’s a matter of principle.

Principles don’t belong to a political party, they belong to us. The values and principles that were imprinted upon us in the military made us better leaders; leaders who have an obligation to instill those values and principles in others. We can teach others what it means to do the harder right because leadership is not about cutting corners and shunning responsibility. Leadership is about setting the example for others to make them want to be better themselves. That is what leadership is supposed to be.

Yet, for too long we have glorified those who believe leadership to be synonymous with swagger and bluster. They decry violence on the streets of America, yet by their own conduct have encouraged it. They purposefully exploit our differences so that we confront others not as fellow citizens, but as enemies to be subjugated and conquered. Using worn out slogans and obsolete dogmas they cling to a vision of America where our greatness resides in some distant past, not on the horizon before us. It is a sordid leadership, devoid of character, that sends us searching for scapegoats and conspiracies and only with a reckoning in our own hearts can we begin to cleanse this sickness from our souls. We must have the courage to admit that these are not the actions of a leader. This is not leadership.

Like the veterans of the World War II and Vietnam generations before us, our time to lead has come. Whether we’re coaching our children’s softball teams, working to better our communities or choosing to run for office ourselves, we can all play our part reminding others that we are more than our differences, that the greatness of our country cannot be built upon the shattered dreams of other human beings. The greatness of our country can only be built upon the character of its citizens. This goal, this common purpose, we can all work toward instilling in others. We are all uniquely qualified to begin helping heal the wounds of division that have been inflicted upon us to show that we are all brothers, sisters and countrymen in this great land of ours.

Like a freight train, history is barreling fast toward us; it will lay a heavy hand. If we choose to be mere spectators in the arena, then years from now when our grandchildren ask what we did at this moment in history, our inaction, our indifference will consume our souls. We’ll know we chose to look the other way when our consciences demanded otherwise.

The challenge we face is finding enough of us who have the courage to stand up and say, “Not on my watch.” So take a moment and listen to the world around you. If you can hear the sounds of gunfire in the not too far-off distance, then what are you waiting for? Can you fight?

Gabriel Gough (gabe.gough21@gmail.com) served as a special assistant and adviser to three secretaries of Veterans Affairs. He is a veteran of the war in Iraq where he was awarded a Bronze Star for Valor and holds a master’s degree in International Relations from Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service.

https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/op-ed/bs-ed-op-1103-principles-partisan-20201102-6do227oz2reozfb6xgh5cmdfzy-story.html?fbclid=IwAR0lUEINYxPWg7cru33nnbM6kTP6KsyKyUaiPRffs8I39C2vmoMZ7SsOCyE

 

[Brad Sallows]

In case it wasn't already linked, Play with 538's model.

The prediction odds dramatically shift from the default with contrary assertions of only 1 or 2 of the "battleground" state results.  So the prediction is sensitive.

 

[Remius]

In case it wasn't already linked, Play with 538's model.

The prediction odds dramatically shift from the default with contrary assertions of only 1 or 2 of the "battleground" state results.  So the prediction is sensitive.

Awesome tool.  Thanks for sharing.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Politico.com has a live map showing the votes as they come in. It can be viewed here.

 

[OldSolduer]

Politico.com has a live map showing the votes as they come in. It can be viewed here.

The tire fire has commenced. Let's hope it all ends well and America gets proper leadership at some point.

 

[Pelorus]

Yup. However this plays out, tomorrow neighbours will still be neighbours. There will be a Democrat party, a Republican party, each will hold some portion of the federal and state legislature, some distribution of governorships... There will then be midterms, and a next presidential election. There will be court cases, house debates, fillibusters and legislative wrangling... all of the normal mechanisms of legislature and governance, in all their ugliness.

I completely agree with the overall tone of your post and the points you made, but I really think that Americans need to look inwards after this campaign and realize that many things happened this election cycle which are decidedly abnormal, and are increasingly concerning for the future of a country which is by all accounts hyper-partisan and already considered by reputable analysis to be a Flawed Democracy.

Setting aside the past four years and only looking at things which all occurred in the last month or so, these should be quite alarming IMHO for Americans moving forward as a country unless they can "do better" as you've said:

• Despite QAnon being labelled by the FBI as a domestic terrorist threat, multiple QAnon conspiracy theorists are running as endorsed GOP candidates (and looking favourable to be elected). Additionally, a sitting President who flip-flops between saying that he doesn't know anything about them (highly unlikely given the political and national security implications of the group) and referring to them as "people who love our country".
• The President appointing a sycophantic GOP mega-donor (with significant conflicts of interest) to run the formerly-apolitical USPS, quickly resulting in the appointee's order to disassemble millions of dollars worth of specialty mail sorting equipment just before a federal election. Additionally, the now politicized USPS refusing a court order to search for unprocessed ballots, despite evidence that nearly 300,000 ballots had been lost by the system.
• The Texas GOP launching a last-minute lawsuit in an attempt to deny 127,000 legally-cast votes from being counted.
• A sitting president overtly recruiting partisan "poll watchers" and referring to them as his "army", despite his own administration's commission finding no evidence two years prior to support his repeated lies regarding the pervasiveness of voter fraud.
  [*]Multiple reports of Trump supporters trying to deny or otherwise discourage US citizen's right to vote, including [url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/trump-poll-watcher-philadelphia-voting-b1563602.html]trying to unlawfully gain access to polling sites as per the President's encouragement above, at least one former GOP candidate so far showing up armed and being arrested after multiple attempts, trying to intimidate voters at polling sites while decked out in Trump paraphernalia, or armed groups of persons turning away prospective voters from ballot drop-off boxes.
• The President's son encouraging Texas supporters to give a sitting US-senator and VP candidate a "Trump Train welcome" two days in advance of his supporters dangerously surrounding a campaign bus on the highway and attempting to prevent it from completing a campaign stop, which the Biden campaign ultimately cancelled at the last minute citing security concerns. This was followed by the President himself tweeting in support of those actions and attempting to influence the FBI investigation which was launched as a result of the incident.
• Veteran right-wing fraudsters/political operatives being charged with multiple felonies arising from a robocall campaign designed to intimidate and deter urban minority voters from casting their vote.
• The President's personal attorney appearing on election day for an interview on Russia Today, a known Russian state propaganda outlet, to amplify Russian election interference attempts at spreading false claims about Biden's health and fitness for the presidency.

None of the above items (and I'm sure that I've missed at least a few given all that's happened lately) should be acceptable to the American electorate as normal mechanisms of legislative ugliness, no matter how low we view political shenanigans. Given how close the race looks however, I'm not convinced that the message is being heard.

EDIT: Grammar

 

[Brad Sallows]

The US isn't a "flawed democracy"; the Economist made up a list of evaluation points, scored them, and people pretend they measure "democracy" (an "emperor's clothes" concensus).  By any objective standard, the US is more democratic than countries that scored higher, such as Canada (separately elected executive; meaningfully bicameral elected legislature; similar executive and legislative structure in nearly all states; cooperation of executive branch and one part of legislature required for major federal appointments, etc).

Because the US is a democracy, QAnon candidates can run, as well as marxists and various other odd-balls.

The USPS "scandal" is humbug.  The decommissioning and/or repositioning of sorting equipment is something that has been ongoing for years, due to demographic changes and changes in how people correspond and how packages are delivered.  And Sullivan's court order was unreasonable (timelines): "Given the time constraints set by this Court’s order, and the fact that Postal Inspectors operate on a nationwide basis, Defendants were unable to accelerate the daily review process to run from 12:30 pm to 3:00 pm without significantly disrupting preexisting activities on the day of the Election, something which Defendants did not understand the Court to invite or require."

As for the rest: should be corrected, but the incidences of fraud and other interference are not, as so many repeatedly point out, pervasive.  The entire US need not be "quite alarmed" because  "armed groups turned some voters away at a ballot drop box near a water park in Lane County".

 

[suffolkowner]

kinda looks like Trump won this one with it looks like him taking Michigan and Pennsylvania and Biden maybe carrying Wisconsin and Nevada

 

[Remius]

kinda looks like Trump won this one with it looks like him taking Michigan and Pennsylvania and Biden maybe carrying Wisconsin and Nevada

Some areas are narrowing.  Michigan’s largest county still counting mail in votes.  Places Grand Rapids, Flint and Detroit.

We may have a clearer picture today but I wouldn’t count on it.

Even if, and I say if, Trump loses, he’ll still have beat steep odds and discredited several polls and pollsters.

The stage is set for a lot of court battles. 

The irony is that Fox is the one that took the wind out of Trump’s sails by declaring Arizona for Biden way too early.

 

[Infanteer]

Six states up in the air.

Biden has to take 3 of 6 to win.  He is winning in 2 of 6, and has mail in ballots on his side which means only 1 of the remaining 4 needs to fall to him.  The question is will these ballots be enough to close the gap.

Trump has to take 4 of 6 to win.  He is winning in 4 of 6 but his lead in these has been slimming down over the night.

What is clear is that the American electorate is not ready to repudiate President Trump.  Many people are clearly still unhappy with the Democratic machine.  Also, the initial post mortem on polling is that it seemed to focus on 2016 Trump numbers.  President Trump was able to galvanize millions of new voters, which allowed him to keep up with Biden in many states.

P.S. I put in the current results into Nate Silver's tool (his is one of the best aggregation sites, in my view), and it is tight.  The aggregator still gives the odds to Biden to win.  Here is the scenario I plugged in - Nevada (Biden), Georgia (Trump), North Carolina (Trump), Pennsylvania (Trump), Wisconsin (Biden), Michigan (Biden).  Electoral College outcome for this is 271 to 267.  When you add what looks to be a Democratic House and a Republican Senate, you can probably say that this country is split pretty evenly down the middle....

 

[dimsum]

You know, when even your strongest supporters start publicly calling you out...  :

Republicans have condemned Trump's false claim to have already won the election

Prominent Republicans and conservative commentators have joined the condemnation of President Trump's false claim that he has already won the election.

Trump in the early hours of Wednesday morning told a White House press conference that "frankly, we did win this election."

However, no winner has been declared and millions of votes are yet to be counted.

Trump described the fact that not all votes have been counted on Election Night a "major fraud on our nation" and repeated without evidence his claim that in-mail voting had led to voter fraud.

It follows a report last week by Axios suggesting that Trump planned to declare victory on election night if it appeared that he was "ahead" in early results.

Numerous prominent Republican figures lined up to condemn Trump early Wednesday morning.

Former Republican Senator Rick Santorum said: "I was very distressed by what I heard the president say."

He told CNN: "The president is prone as we know to bluster and fits of pique and being upset about how he's being treated. I don't have any problem... I think Joe Biden said similar things, 'I think I won,' and that's fine. You think you won, that's great.

"But the idea of using the word fraud, and fraud is being committed by people counting votes is wrong."

[More on link]

https://www.businessinsider.com/republicans-condemn-donald-trump-false-claim-win-election-supreme-court-2020-11?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=topbar

 

[brihard]

What a nail biter. We won’t get Nevada results til tomorrow. Biden has pulled slightly ahead in Wisconsin. Trump holds a narrowing lad in Pennsylvania with a lot of mail in ballots yet to come, which will favour Biden- but will there be enough?

Any late moves will be a shift as a result of mail in ballots. Trump has been disingenuously setting the stage for claims of fraud in exactly this eventuality. Even if this breaks for Biden, America’s democracy I’ll face attack from the incumbent and his supporters.

However this goes it’s gonna be ugly.

 

[dapaterson]

If current D leads hold in NE, WI and MI, they reach 270, regardless of PA.

 

[brihard]

If current D leads hold in NE, WI and MI, they reach 270, regardless of PA.

Yup. But it would be damned nice to get that extra state’s worth of certainty.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I don't see Trump winning NV, MI, or WI.  Biden will win.

The Republicans look more likely than not to retain a bare majority in the Senate.

The Democrats might get a tiny rebuke in the House, but not a costly one.

I predict that "pen-and-phone" executive governance will become laudable again, and dissent will flip from "patriotic" to "unpatriotic".