Quebec sovereignty?

[lenaitch]

Another issue Quebec would need to consider is the need to negotiate trade deals with the US, as they would be a sovereign state not covered under USMCA, or other Canadian trade deals.

And First Nations.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

And First Nations.

This. It's also a huge strike against Canadian Republicanism, as the AFN has very clearly said any treaties negotiated by the Crown would become void and need to be renegotiated (on far better terms I would imagine as well).

I imagine a New Quebec would face the same reality.

All this because General Wolfe decided to play musket ball catch with his chest in 1759...

 

[QV]

This. It's also a huge strike against Canadian Republicanism, as the AFN has very clearly said any treaties negotiated by the Crown would become void and need to be renegotiated (on far better terms I would imagine as well).

I imagine a New Quebec would face the same reality.

All this because General Wolfe decided to play musket ball catch with his chest in 1759...

Perfect time to offer up $$ and land buy out to all FN and abolish the Indian Act, reservations, and treaties with the Crown altogether.

Congrats you're now citizens with the same rights as everyone else. You can sell your land if you want to also.

 

[KevinB]

And First Nations.

I suspect Quebec would just decide that they had no rights as part of their newly found Constitution.
Annex the land, and say sue us, in our new Supreme Court of Quebec...

 

[Remius]

Quebec has been pretty good at dealing with its own treaties. I suspect they will just offer the same or better deals and try to get them onside. That they would be better served in a newly independent Quebec than in a fractured Canada.

I doubt they go the annex route.

 

[lenaitch]

Perfect time to offer up $$ and land buy out to all FN and abolish the Indian Act, reservations, and treaties with the Crown altogether.

Congrats you're now citizens with the same rights as everyone else. You can sell your land if you want to also.

Considering that many say 'this' (in this discussion, Quebec) is all theirs, buying them out would amount to buying the entirety of Quebec. I wonder what the new nation's credit limit would be.

I'm not sure 'the same rights as everyone else' would satisfy all FNs but, then again, everything does have a price.

Quebec has been pretty good at dealing with its own treaties. I suspect they will just offer the same or better deals and try to get them onside. That they would be better served in a newly independent Quebec than in a fractured Canada.

I doubt they go the annex route.

They did come to a several billion dollar agreement to let them essentially dam and divert most of the northern part of the province, so I guess that could be considered a treaty. Most of the FNs within the province actually aren't covered by treaty.

 

[lenaitch]

I suspect Quebec would just decide that they had no rights as part of their newly found Constitution.
Annex the land, and say sue us, in our new Supreme Court of Quebec...

It might be tough to get recognized as a legitimate nation by the rest of the world when you start out acting like a bully. Besides, who's going to enforce it?

 

[QV]

Considering that many say 'this' (in this discussion, Quebec) is all theirs, buying them out would amount to buying the entirety of Quebec. I wonder what the new nation's credit limit would be.

I'm not sure 'the same rights as everyone else' would satisfy all FNs but, then again, everything does have a price.


They did come to a several billion dollar agreement to let them essentially dam and divert most of the northern part of the province, so I guess that could be considered a treaty. Most of the FNs within the province actually aren't covered by treaty.

For the purpose of negotiating a buyout I suppose 'all of it' is as good a starting point as any for one side... I'm sure the new nation of Quebec and former FN could find a number that is palatable for all citizens.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I know I'm repeating myself, from years ago, but one of there first major problems that a newly independent Québec will face is separatism. Several regions will have voted "Non," and it is likely that the largest of those "Non" votes will have been in the resource right James Bay region.

The largely indigenous people of that region will declare their own independence, citing the UNDRIP, and when, eventually, an international tribunal rules on Canada/Québec issues the James Bay and Ungava regions will be recognized, by Québec, as an independent state from which both Canada and Quebec will buy the hydroelectricity that Québec, with Canadian support, developed in the 1990s.

Other parts of Québec will also not be happy in the new state and some, maybe the Pontiac (parts of the National Capital and parts of the Abitibi-Témiscamingue) region in West Québec which are contiguous to Canada and which vote "Non," on a very large scale will be allowed to secede and join Canada.

 

[Eaglelord17]

This. It's also a huge strike against Canadian Republicanism, as the AFN has very clearly said any treaties negotiated by the Crown would become void and need to be renegotiated (on far better terms I would imagine as well).

I imagine a New Quebec would face the same reality.

All this because General Wolfe decided to play musket ball catch with his chest in 1759...

Your assuming any new nation would be willing to negotiate and accept the first nations as separate entities. It could be a opportunity for true egalitarian action and the abolishment of separate nations within the nation.

Keep in mind most immigrants don’t care for native rights one bit, it only goes anywhere because of white guilt. Right now is a native rights renaissance. Give it a decade or two and if the native issues aren’t resolved by then it might go hard the opposite way.

 

[Spencer100]

When they held the last vote to separate they had a slush fund of billions of dollars and the next day the funds did not materialize as they lost the vote and they put the money back where it was suppose to be. Or the money was never really there.

If they were to have another vote, this would just make the West even more radical about not sending money to Ottawa that is spent on Quebec. Equalization Payments are not equal in any way or shape.

I wonder if Quebec did manage to separate, do they realize the First Nations Land where the Hydro Quebec power dams are located are not in Quebec ? The First Nations as much as they do not like Ottawa and the politics did request RCMP and the Canadian Military to come help secure their lands as they were not going to be a part of the New Quebec.

Governments have money on paper but they have a hard time finding it when it comes to spending it on long term projects.

The question of FNs in a independent Quebec is probably the area that has chance become kinetic. Many FNs believe their treaties are with the crown itself and that responsibility is pasted to Canada by crown to manage. An independent Quebec thus would probmatic in some views.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Of course the big elephant in the room is the United States, because they would worry that foreign elements (China, Russia, etc) could gain influence in the new independent Quebec and the Americans would see that as a threat (justified) to their security.

So, 10 minutes after Quebec declares sovereignty, the !0th Mountain Division moves north, along with the 82nd Airborne and/or 101st Airmobile Division, plus a lot of other formations. In fact, the US might just say the heck with it take over the whole country.

 

[Remius]

Of course the big elephant in the room is the United States, because they would worry that foreign elements (China, Russia, etc) could gain influence in the new independent Quebec and the Americans would see that as a threat (justified) to their security.

So, 10 minutes after Quebec declares sovereignty, the !0th Mountain Division moves north, along with the 82nd Airborne and/or 101st Airmobile Division, plus a lot of other formations. In fact, the US might just say the heck with it take over the whole country.

Yeah no…

A more likely scenario is the US not recognizing QC as a country until a mutual and negotiated deal is achieved. If a separation is peaceful (and it truly would be between Canada and QC as entitities) then the US would:

-move to secure the QC border points.
-seek assurances that the st Laurence River remain open (hint: it would)
-exclude QC from any USMCA initially until QC could negotiate entry
-entertain diplomatic overtures
-exclude them from any military pact initially until properly negotiated (QC would likely not even want to be in NATO a but might be interested in contributing to NORAD)
-the will seek assurances that QC keep providing the US North East with cheap electricity and they will gladly keep that deal going.

At the end of the day, North America has an integrated economy and that includes QC. The US will want to minimise any disruptions to that and will like everyone else try to renegotiate deals to their advantage if they can. A new QC country may be a little too eager to get into those and might get a few raw deals if they aren’t careful (they won’t have the same leverage over various items like a unified Canada would have). I suspect that they could end up on the short end of the stick, they will after all be the smallest economy in North America in the event of a successful separation.

 

[Quirky]

Of course the big elephant in the room is the United States, because they would worry that foreign elements (China, Russia, etc) could gain influence in the new independent Quebec and the Americans would see that as a threat (justified) to their security.

So, 10 minutes after Quebec declares sovereignty, the !0th Mountain Division moves north, along with the 82nd Airborne and/or 101st Airmobile Division, plus a lot of other formations. In fact, the US might just say the heck with it take over the whole country.

We could only be so lucky….

 

[Spencer100]

Of course the big elephant in the room is the United States, because they would worry that foreign elements (China, Russia, etc) could gain influence in the new independent Quebec and the Americans would see that as a threat (justified) to their security.

So, 10 minutes after Quebec declares sovereignty, the !0th Mountain Division moves north, along with the 82nd Airborne and/or 101st Airmobile Division, plus a lot of other formations. In fact, the US might just say the heck with it take over the whole country.

I doubt that. Too expensive and they do not want the pain that running Quebec would bring. They have watched that show already.

I don't think the US would ever annex, incorporate, give statehood to any part of Canada. Even Alberta. First is the two new Sentors would be created. That's no go. Second it's cheaper just buy what they need from whatever part of Canada has it.

I could see defence agreements and basing rights but no wholesale taking over.

A breakup of the country would be mostly peaceful. First Nations being the wildcard. But as long as "free healthcare" goes on not many will care.

In the end it would be an accountants and lawyers party. Who gets what and who's paying. Quebec will get upperhand, the rest Canada will give in to maintain some kind of access to the east coast, road, rail and the St Lawrence. And I would bet you we give into things like a joint Space agency, joint coast guard...etc. also not much to split in tbe CAF.

Quebec separatism means they still keep everything they have now. All the service jobs and agencies in Quebec that are the Federal governments, plus control over everything Quebec.

 

[Spencer100]

Yeah no…

A more likely scenario is the US not recognizing QC as a country until a mutual and negotiated deal is achieved. If a separation is peaceful (and it truly would be between Canada and QC as entitities) then the US would:

-move to secure the QC border points.
-seek assurances that the st Laurence River remain open (hint: it would)
-exclude QC from any USMCA initially until QC could negotiate entry
-entertain diplomatic overtures
-exclude them from any military pact initially until properly negotiated (QC would likely not even want to be in NATO a but might be interested in contributing to NORAD)
-the will seek assurances that QC keep providing the US North East with cheap electricity and they will gladly keep that deal going.

At the end of the day, North America has an integrated economy and that includes QC. The US will want to minimise any disruptions to that and will like everyone else try to renegotiate deals to their advantage if they can. A new QC country may be a little too eager to get into those and might get a few raw deals if they aren’t careful (they won’t have the same leverage over various items like a unified Canada would have). I suspect that they could end up on the short end of the stick, they will after all be the smallest economy in North America in the event of a successful separation.

Said much better than me.

One thing add. The law of unintended consequences would rear its head for Quebec. The regular French speaking citizen of the New Republic of Quebec in a few years would see less French in their daily life as a result of the split. The remaining part of Canada would soon rescind French labeling regulations, French TV and other programs. Many products and services would be removed from the Quebec shelves or be repriced much higher to comply with Quebec labeling. In the rest Canada a smart move would be harmonize with US laws. So price in Canada would go in opposite direction to Quebec.

Example KFC pulled out of Quebec just because of the costs in marketing, labeling and branding PFK in Quebec.

You will see many companies do the same. Right now the whole Canadian market covers the cost of Quebec but remove that market. Quebec is not worth it to many businesses.

So in the end Quebec will have to loosen the rules or just go with higher cost and/or nothing. Plus that condition can not last over the long run.

 

[Furniture]

Yeah no…

A more likely scenario is the US not recognizing QC as a country until a mutual and negotiated deal is achieved. If a separation is peaceful (and it truly would be between Canada and QC as entitities) then the US would:

-move to secure the QC border points.
-seek assurances that the st Laurence River remain open (hint: it would)
-exclude QC from any USMCA initially until QC could negotiate entry
-entertain diplomatic overtures
-exclude them from any military pact initially until properly negotiated (QC would likely not even want to be in NATO a but might be interested in contributing to NORAD)
-the will seek assurances that QC keep providing the US North East with cheap electricity and they will gladly keep that deal going.

At the end of the day, North America has an integrated economy and that includes QC. The US will want to minimise any disruptions to that and will like everyone else try to renegotiate deals to their advantage if they can. A new QC country may be a little too eager to get into those and might get a few raw deals if they aren’t careful (they won’t have the same leverage over various items like a unified Canada would have). I suspect that they could end up on the short end of the stick, they will after all be the smallest economy in North America in the event of a successful separation.

That lines up with my thinking apart from the bolded bit. Not sure if you read the initial article, but it clearly stated not spending on defense would be part of the savings to make an independent Quebec viable.

That means they likely lose out on CAF and US DoD spending, as NL makes more sense from NORAD fighter base perspective. Why pay a foreign country to house fighters when Goose Bay exists, and would help placate Atlantic Canadians who would feel cut-off from the rest of Canada. I could also see CA and RCN facilities being relocated to Gagetown and Halifax for the same reasons.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Of course the big elephant in the room is the United States, because they would worry that foreign elements (China, Russia, etc) could gain influence in the new independent Quebec and the Americans would see that as a threat (justified) to their security.

So, 10 minutes after Quebec declares sovereignty, the !0th Mountain Division moves north, along with the 82nd Airborne and/or 101st Airmobile Division, plus a lot of other formations. In fact, the US might just say the heck with it take over the whole country.

Why would they want another California?

 

[GK .Dundas]

What makes you think we'd be offered statehood?
Think Puerto Rico or Guam.

 

[OldSolduer]

Quebec has been separating since before I was a teenager. Every few years it comes up and within a few weeks its gone. This will likely be no different,