Liberal Minority Government 2019 - ????

[Remius]

Right now the biggest problem is the public seem to see that Trudeau as a man who can do no wrong. Polls still show him high up, so my million dollar question is, what will it take to bring the majority of the public against him?

Give people a good alternative to vote for. And stop hoping that people will vote “against” him. They won’t. So offer people a real alternative.

 

[MilEME09]

Give people a good alternative to vote for. And stop hoping that people will vote “against” him. They won’t. So offer people a real alternative.

I think I've given up on that, I swear Canadian politics is actual a corrupt monopoly needing an anti trust law suit

 

[Altair]

Right now the biggest problem is the public seem to see that Trudeau as a man who can do no wrong. Polls still show him high up, so my million dollar question is, what will it take to bring the majority of the public against him?

This may be a hot take, but 80 percent of Canadians live in urban areas.

That urban population is where the LPC are having their greatest success. The CPC were locked out of the biggest cities in Canada. The CPC didn't win a single riding with a population density of greater than 2500.

The top 66 ridings by population density in the last federal election were all lost by the CPC.

338Canada | Projection per population density

338canada.com

Looking at this list, you need to get to number 67, Edmonton Griesbach, before you get to a CPC riding, population density 2443 km².

So with a Canada increasingly urbanized, the CPC cannot simply give up 66 seats to the LPC, NDP and the BQ. 54 of those 66 went to the LPC.

So those ridings, increasingly multicultural, increasingly progressive, those are the ridings the CPC needs to start winning. And I don't think the CPC can change the political priorities of those ridings, so they best start changing their policies to become more attractive to those ridings.

How they do that without losing their base in rural Canada I have no idea, and perhaps more troubling, I don't think they know either.

But the numbers don't lie. The urban population of Canada in 1971 was 76 percent. In 2021, it's 81 percent. That number is only going to get higher.

Edit: And looking more into the numbers, even amongst the ridings that the CPC won last election, looking at 338, you need to go down to number 76 on the list to find a "safe" CPC riding, Richmond Center, population density 2276 km².

Edmonton Griesbach, Calgary Center, Edmonton Center, Edmonton Mill Woods, are all within the margin of error of the LPC and NDP. So the top 75 seats could all possibly go to a non CPC party.

So 19 percent of seats in Canada are currenly locking out the CPC with the potential of it being 22 percent. That's not good.

 

[Good2Golf]

I am sorry G2G, but that article (opinion, really, not facts) by Spencer Fernando is quite simply bull...

Here is the 25 years oil production trend in Canada: Canada Crude Oil Production | 1973-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast | Historical | Chart (clic on the 25yr at the top of the graph to see the trend).

We have never produced as much crude as we do right now and the trend is constantly towards higher production. The dipping 2020 is simply the worldwide dip that was caused by every nation shutting down due to Covid.

So Canada has not been missing on sales of its oil as a result of any policy currently in place. We are missing, potentially, on overseas sales as a result of the fact that current transportation systems for crude from Alberta are pretty well maxed out at this time. But I say potentially because there is no evidence that we could supply those oversea markets as well as the closer providers such as the Middle-East or Russia, or that these oversea markets would want to purchase Canadian crude from Alberta, which requires a different method of refining than the light crude coming, again, from the Middle-east or Russia.

Thus, to say that we put money in their pockets instead of Canadian ones is simply false. Moreover, the Canadian carbon tax is applied on ALL carbon generating oil, not just the one originating in Canada, and is charged at the pump, so Canadians are taxed the same wherever the oil comes from.

I won't even go into the stupidity of saying that money Russia or the Saudi spend on schools and the military somehow are dollars Canada does not get to spend on its own schools or , god forbids, the Canadian military.

OGBD, I will absolutely give you the point on production. Though it would be interesting to see the increase in production possible if there were intermediate refinement on site or shortly down stream so that the net proceeds would be notably higher and be able to be further reinvested nationally to support increase in sustainable/renewable resources. The difference between WTI (Wester Texas Intermediate) or Brent and WCS (Western Canadian Select) is an average 15-20% ($10-12US/BBL) on WCS, and would most certainly sell higher at a reduced discount. That would be an annual increase of $17B gross revenue which would go a long way (via taxes) to reinvest for greener energy production. With Keystone XL down for the count, and minimal ability to get additional WCS crude to the Gulf refineries, we will likely see production stagnate. Doesn’t seem that the government is doing much to resolve the sales challenges of Canadian crude.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Give people a good alternative to vote for. And stop hoping that people will vote “against” him. They won’t. So offer people a real alternative.

Like Chrystia 'Lipsticked Pitbull' Freeland?

By promoting Chrystia Freeland, Justin Trudeau may have shored up his own support — or strengthened a potential rival​

By promoting Chrystia Freeland, Justin Trudeau may have shored up his own support — or strengthened a potential rival

Freeland’s selection as Canada’s next finance minister was an unsurprising choice, political observers said Tuesday.

www.thestar.com

 

[Altair]

OGBD, I will absolutely give you the point on production. Though it would be interesting to see the increase in production possible if there were intermediate refinement in Siri or shortly down stream so that the net proceeds would be notably higher and be able to be further reinvested nationally to support increase in sustainable/renewable resources. The difference between WTI (Wester Texas Intermediate) or Brent and WCS (Western Canadian Select) is an average 15-20% ($10-12US/BBL) on WCS, and would most certainly sell higher at a reduced discount. That would be an annual increase of $17B gross revenue which would go a long way (via taxes) to reinvest for greener energy production. With Keystone XL down for the count, and minimal ability to get additional WCS crude to the Gulf refineries, we will likely see production stagnate. Doesn’t seem that the government is doing much to resolve the sales challenges of Canadian crude.

They bought a pipeline to get crude to the west coast. Politically, that's as much as they are able to do, other than ram a pipeline through Ontario, Quebec, and every Indigenous group in between.

And politically, looking at the breakdown, I am not convinced it was a bad choice. The CPC, biggest booster of pipelines across the nation, won 50 of 230 seats east of Manitoba.

 

[daftandbarmy]

They bought a pipeline to get crude to the west coast. Politically, that's as much as they are able to do, other than ram a pipeline through Ontario, Quebec, and every Indigenous group in between.

And politically, looking at the breakdown, I am not convinced it was a bad choice. The CPC, biggest booster of pipelines across the nation, won 50 of 230 seats east of Manitoba.

They bought a project to double the capacity in an existing pipeline. The hysteria doesn't match up to the reality, sadly

 

[Altair]

They bought a project to double the capacity in an existing pipeline. The hysteria doesn't match up to the reality, sadly

Well, it is a new pipeline, just twined with a existing pipeline.

Semantics.

They had almost nothing to gain from doing so and a lot to lose. AB and SK were never going to appreciate the LPC for doing so and they risked the wrath of Progressive voters in BC and environmentalists across the nation for doing it, but they did it anyways.

Yet all you hear from a certain party and their supporters is talk about how much the LPC has gone out of their way to destroy the oil industry.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Well, it is a new pipeline, just twined with a existing pipeline.

Semantics.

They had almost nothing to gain from doing so and a lot to lose. AB and SK were never going to appreciate the LPC for doing so and they risked the wrath of Progressive voters in BC and environmentalists across the nation for doing it, but they did it anyways.

Yet all you hear from a certain party and their supporters is talk about how much the LPC has gone out of their way to destroy the oil industry.

Because Trudeau is a 'man baby viture signaling idiot', of course.

I'm no lefty, but I'm pretty sure that a Paul Martin or Jean Chretien would have approached the whole situation completely differently, of course.

 

[OldSolduer]

Because Trudeau is a 'man baby viture signaling idiot', of course.

A little harsh don't you think? After all he does have nice hair.

 

[Altair]

Because Trudeau is a 'man baby viture signaling idiot', of course.

I'm no lefty, but I'm pretty sure that a Paul Martin or Jean Chretien would have approached the whole situation completely differently, of course.

Both of them had a sizeable base in Quebec and Ontario, and if the politics on the ground said that people didn't support a pipeline through those provinces, I don't think they go ahead with it either.

Piss of lefties in Ontario and they have a history of going NDP. Piss of Quebecers and they can go NDP or Bloc. There were lessons learned from the 2011 election for the LPC I think. That lesson was the NDP can and will eat their lunch if they allow it, and the CPC voters do not see them as a viable second choice. Ever since 2011, you have seen the LPC chase down the NDP vote. The reasons for that I believe lie in 2011. One of the few things the LPC has done to throw a bone at AB and SK is buy the transmountain pipeline extension, and seeing as the reaction to that has left them open to attacks from the left, and little to no goodwill from the AB and SK, I doubt they make that mistake ever again.

 

[Brad Sallows]

An eastern oil crisis would unsettle some folks.

 

[Good2Golf]

An eastern oil crisis would unsettle some folks.

The whining of the marginal incremental amount to pull some more Saudi oil into Irving refineries and ship slightly Westward would pale in comparison to the self-righteous hue and cry of the Enviro-friendly (expect for now only occasionally dumping raw sewage into the Pacific and shipping hyper-CO2-producing coal to China) West Coasters…

 

[dangerboy]

Politicians are starting to make election promises. They have been talking about this for a long time, while I would love to see an improvement to out rail I just can't see it being like Europe, where it is resonably affordable and fast.

 

[YZT580]

Been promised before, lots of times. Bombardier had a big push on for it around 1990 and Trudeau seniors people were pushing it along with VIA in the early 19 70s. Seems to be a favourite of the liberals as Dalton McGinty had a thing for it too if I remember correctly. They need to look at California and their fiasco before putting any money into it.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Been promised before, lots of times. Bombardier had a big push on for it around 1990 and Trudeau seniors people were pushing it along with VIA in the early 19 70s. Seems to be a favourite of the liberals as Dalton McGinty had a thing for it too if I remember correctly. They need to look at California and their fiasco before putting any money into it.

... and this would also be more sustainable where all the population density is, not necessarily ALL of Canada - then again, that's where the votes are, too.

 

[YZT580]

... and this would also be more sustainable where all the population density is, not necessarily ALL of Canada - then again, that's where the votes are, too.

If government gets involved it will cost 3X what it should regardless of where they start from, will involve Bombardier and Lavelin, try to implement some untested, carbon neutral and ultimately unworkable in the Canadian environment technology.

 

[OldSolduer]

If government gets involved it will cost 3X what it should regardless of where they start from, will involve Bombardier and Lavelin, try to implement some untested, carbon neutral and ultimately unworkable in the Canadian environment technology.

You're a tad cynical don't you think? Think of all the jobs that this will create! Think of all the bonuses Bombardier and SMC will be able to pay their struggling executives!!!!

 

[Brad Sallows]

Figure out the cost and divide by the projected ridership. See how it looks then.

 

[PuckChaser]

Been promised before, lots of times. Bombardier had a big push on for it around 1990 and Trudeau seniors people were pushing it along with VIA in the early 19 70s. Seems to be a favourite of the liberals as Dalton McGinty had a thing for it too if I remember correctly. They need to look at California and their fiasco before putting any money into it.

Monorail. Monorail. Monorail!!!!!