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The Next Canadian Government

Ducking back into this thread with an observation: a few weeks back we were musing Constitutional amendment to change the Senate, and the difficulty of getting the 7 provinces with 50% of population lines up to support that or any other Constitutional change. I’d say the NDP election in BC, and last night’s Liberal victory in New Brunswick over Blaine Higgs had spiked the guns on lining up enough Conservative provincial legislatures any time soon.

And, generally speaking, Canadians seem to like that. They're ballot choices seem to indicate a preference for a tension between the provinces and Ottawa. They could already be factoring in a change of government at the federal level.
 
And, generally speaking, Canadians seem to like that. They're ballot choices seem to indicate a preference for a tension between the provinces and Ottawa. They could already be factoring in a change of government at the federal level.
I’m not sure most give that any real thought. Personally I suspect it’s because for most Canadians, what the province spends money on more likely to directly impact they and their families than things the feds spend money on, outside of established and fixed benefits like CPP/OAS.
 
Here is the Globe and Mail's John Ibbitson on the impact of suburbs on the next election:

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What Surrey’s shift to the Conservatives may mean for Toronto in the next federal election​

JOHN IBBITSON
PUBLISHED YESTERDAY

In this past Saturday’s British Columbia election, voters in the suburban Vancouver city of Surrey shifted their support massively from the NDP to the Conservatives. At the federal level, this will hearten Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, and dishearten Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.

For as suburban Greater Vancouver goes, so goes suburban Greater Toronto. And as they go, so goes the nation.

Surrey is a city of about 570,000 people in southern Metro Vancouver. About 38 per cent of the population is South Asian, up from 33 per cent in 2016. This reflects both the rapid growth of the city and a marked shift in Canadian immigration patterns.

China, India and the Philippines are the largest source countries of immigrants to Canada; a decade ago, the three sent roughly the same number here each year. But in recent years, the Indian share has grown substantially, accounting for about 140,000 new permanent residents in 2023, with China way back at 32,000 and the Philippines at 27,000.

Whatever troubles the governments in New Delhi and Ottawa are having with each other, Indians are coming to Canada in record numbers. They are an increasingly large component of the multicultural matrix of the country, and Surrey.

In the 2020 provincial election, the NDP won seven of the nine Surrey seats. But in Saturday’s election, at least seven of what are now 10 Surrey seats went for B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad’s party. (One of the three NDP wins is subject to a recount.)

Overall, in this incredibly close result – the New Democrats have only a one seat advantage over the Conservative, with two seats scheduled for a recount – it appears NDP Leader David Eby will be able to carry on as premier, though in a minority government with the help of the Greens. But a long-established governing party with a sophisticated ground game came within an inch of losing power to a party that virtually didn’t exist two years ago, in part because of the voters of Surrey.

Like Surrey, many of the ridings in Toronto’s 905 – the band of suburban areas surrounding the city named after their area code – have large immigrant populations. South Asians account for about half of the population of Brampton, and about a quarter of Mississauga.

People who identify as visible minorities make up 80 per cent of the population of Markham and about a third of the population of Vaughan. Most of them are immigrants or their kin from South and East Asia, the Philippines, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean.

Conventional wisdom used to hold that immigrants vote Liberal because it’s the pro-immigration party. But more recent immigrants, including those from South Asia, tend to be economically and socially conservative, and could be available voters to conservative parties.

Suburban voters in both the 905 and Greater Vancouver tend to vote for the same party, and to vote as a block. In the last federal election, the Liberals virtually swept the 905 and were very strong as well in Metro Vancouver. But Mr. Poilievre’s Conservatives are currently far ahead of the Liberals and the NDP in both Ontario and B.C. in the polls.

And now we have an example of how those poll numbers could play out on the ground. Since a virtual sweep of Surrey for the provincial NDP in 2020 became a virtual sweep for the B.C. Conservatives in the 2024 election, it stands to reason the federal Conservatives could do very well in Surrey and other suburban Vancouver seats in the next vote.

And that means they could also do very well in the 905.

There are more than 40 seats in the 905 and suburban Vancouver combined. If, as usually happens, one party dominates both regions in the next federal election, that party will probably form the government. Saturday’s result in Surrey suggests things are looking very good for Mr. Poilievre.

As for the Liberals and the NDP, it could become a question of what they will be able to hang onto in the city centres and close suburbs.

What we know for a fact is that Surrey voted for continuity in 2020 at the provincial level and for change in 2024. And that could tell us a lot about what is going to happen in the next federal election, whenever it comes.

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This is the outcome for which Stephen Harper and Jason Kenny worked so hard in the first decade of this century.
 
"Conventional wisdom used to hold that immigrants vote Liberal because it’s the pro-immigration party."

Sensible if you're trying to immigrate, or there are generous provisions for fast-tracking additional relatives. Otherwise the incentives flip once you're in the country competing for housing and employment.
I spoke to a TFW who was managing a burger king yesterday. It came up he was a TFW but he couldn't wait to go back home to India in a few weeks. I asked him why and he said Canada is a lying scamming nation. He went on to add that back home, he shares a large room with 2 adult brothers and here in Canada for a $1,000/month he shares a 2 bedroom apartment with 5 other TFWs. He basically said he felt like he was promised the moon and when he got here the reality was living conditions worse than his home in India.
 
I spoke to a TFW who was managing a burger king yesterday. It came up he was a TFW but he couldn't wait to go back home to India in a few weeks. I asked him why and he said Canada is a lying scamming nation. He went on to add that back home, he shares a large room with 2 adult brothers and here in Canada for a $1,000/month he shares a 2 bedroom apartment with 5 other TFWs. He basically said he felt like he was promised the moon and when he got here the reality was living conditions worse than his home in India.
Not surprised. Immigration and worker brokerages are notorious for doing that.
 
I spoke to a TFW who was managing a burger king yesterday. It came up he was a TFW but he couldn't wait to go back home to India in a few weeks. I asked him why and he said Canada is a lying scamming nation. He went on to add that back home, he shares a large room with 2 adult brothers and here in Canada for a $1,000/month he shares a 2 bedroom apartment with 5 other TFWs. He basically said he felt like he was promised the moon and when he got here the reality was living conditions worse than his home in India.
I hope he puts it squarely on the liberals shoulders, where it belongs.
 
Sounds like he is fighting aged, why isn't he carrying a rifle for his embattled country?
I was chatting with some Ukrainians who live in our apartment. One was from western Ukraine and the other couple were from Crimea and all of them are of fighting age. I have no idea how long they have been in Canada but the Crimea couple indicated they left shortly after the main invasion started.

I am not one to judge and I didn't ask why they were in Canada. Everyone have their own reasons why, and I wonder how attached they are now to their home country.
 
This, from today's Good Grey Globe, is about the USA, but I am pretty sure it overlaps here in Canada and in much iff Europe, too:

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Immigration is top of mind for U.S. voters, even in places where there is practically none​

The importance of immigration and border security to voters in the country’s more remote and rural corners underscores Republican success in using the issue to bolster support
NATHAN VANDERKLIPPEINTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT
MISSOULA, MONT.
PUBLISHED 10 HOURS AGO UPDATED 1 HOUR AGO

The Montana city of Missoula extends along a valley carved by the Clark Fork of the Columbia River between mountain ranges – the Bitterroots to the southwest, the Rattlesnakes to the northeast. Historically, when people here thought of the border, they thought of the 49th parallel, a few hours to the north by car. The nearest crossing to Mexico lies a full day’s drive away, some 2,000 kilometres by road.

In the past year, federal authorities counted 174 refugees who arrived in the entire state. In May, the sole arrival was a single refugee from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. There is little evidence of illegal migrants taking up residence in Montana. The buses dispatched by Republican governors to haul migrants away from Texas and Florida did not bring people here.

Yet as the election approaches, immigration and border security has become one of the issues of greatest concern for many Montanans. That’s true even for people not inclined to vote for former president Donald Trump, who has made issues related to the southern border the centrepiece of his effort to win re-election.

For Montana voters of all political persuasions, “it’s a top-of-mind issue,” said Evan Wilson, a pollster with Peak Insights, which works for Republican campaigns.

Illegal migration is a leading concern for Republican and independent voters across the U.S. But its importance to voters in the country’s more remote and rural corners underscores Republican success in using the issue to bolster support.

“In rural flyover America, immigration is a huge issue, because in rural communities there is an impact,” Mr. Wilson said. People reliant on subsidies, such as farmers, are loath to see federal funds dispensed to the millions of people who have crossed the southern border illegally, he added.

“Every new non-citizen that is included in our country impacts everything,” he said. Such a concern is not reflected in federal data, which show no evident connection between immigration and farm subsidies.

For Republicans, Montana holds unusual importance in this year’s election, as the party seeks to take control of the U.S. Senate by winning the seat now held by local farmer Jon Tester, a Democrat.

“The border crisis is absolutely impacting Montana,” Tim Sheehy, the Republican Senate candidate in the state, recently told Fox News. “We’ve been feeling that in every community across the state,” he added.

Montana streets are not visibly populated by migrants. Local conservatives have nonetheless warned that illegal migrants have brought with them new dangers.

“Every state has become a southern border state because of this all-out flood of illegal aliens across our southern border that bring in fentanyl and meth – even right here into Montana,” said Aaron Flint, a popular conservative radio host whose show, Montana Talks, is broadcast across the state.

He pointed to Stacy Zinn, who until last year led the Drug Enforcement Agency’s operations in Montana. In an interview, Ms. Zinn said at least two major cartels have expanded into the state, selling drugs on and through Indigenous reservations. Other states, she said, have been so saturated with drugs that prices have fallen. Montana has proven more lucrative for drug sales.

“What we see is that the influx of illegal immigrants coming from across our border has actually now impacted Montana,” she said.

“This is virgin land for those individuals that want to pollute our reservations and sell their drugs.”

Like elsewhere in the U.S., seizures of fentanyl in Montana have risen dramatically. They have increased nearly sevenfold from 2021 to 2023, the state’s Department of Justice has reported.

Ms. Zinn pointed to other areas of concern. A growing Hispanic population is arriving, she said, and “you can tell that they are being labour-trafficked.” Also, she added, she has seen an increase in numbers of Mexican restaurants that “are starting to be more lucrative. It’s money laundering. You can recognize the signs.”


She did not elaborate on the nature of those money-laundering indicators. Brad Griffin, managing director of the Montana Retail Association, said he was not aware of any recent increase in Mexican restaurants. FBI data show violent crime in the state fell 6 per cent from 2021 to 2023. Nationally, violent crime decreased more than 10 per cent in the first half of 2024.

Mr. Trump nonetheless has held migrants responsible for what he has, against all evidence, called rising crime rates, saying new arrivals are “poisoning the blood of our country,” while foreign criminals have “invaded and conquered” cities.

Even among Montanans who say immigration is not their top priority, Mr. Trump’s dark warnings have found resonance.

Roger Vaneps owns a concrete company and has been impressed by the skill and diligence of Mexican workers. Inflation is his primary consideration in the election. But he worries that border problems are harming national security.

“You know, I’m not trying to point out Muslims necessarily, but we can’t have people in our country that do want to do us harm,” he said.

Montana’s population is nearly 90 per cent white, and for many decades the state did not formally accept refugees. That changed in 2016, in part because of the efforts of a group that now runs Soft Landing Missoula, a non-profit in the city that helps with roughly 600 people from more than 30 countries.

Most are refugees from places such as Syria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Afghanistan and Yemen.

Mary Poole, the executive director of Soft Landing, has been frustrated by the ways migration fears have grown more acute.

“Here in our state, there’s no invasion. It’s a very, very low number of refugees and immigrants in comparison to many other states,” she said. Nonetheless, children of refugees have reported being bullied in playgrounds. A Haitian woman told Ms. Poole she and her son were harassed on a bus.

Many Montanans remain supportive of refugees. In Missoula, volunteers continue to sign up, and other cities in the state have begun their own resettlement programs.

But Ms. Poole said the political climate in the state has created new problems.

“Any time you’re going to use a vulnerable population for votes – that’s not something that I would agree with.”

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I don't think this has anything to do with immigration in general; I don't think the people in Montana, Monaco or Manitoba care in Icelanders or Irish or Fijians or Filipinos immigrate here.

I know that former President Trump has a thing about the Southern border but I think he, and many, many 🇺🇸s, 🇨🇦s and e.g. 🇬🇧s and 🇩🇪s and so on are opposed to Muslim immigration and the changes that some - NOT all - Muslims want to make to our countries.
 
More, this time by Konrad Yakabuski, in today's Globe and Mail:

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Religion in public schools is roiling Quebec politics once again​

KONRAD YAKABUSKI
MONTREAL
PUBLISHED 11 HOURS AGO

Some of the biggest political battles ever fought in Quebec have revolved around the role of religion in public schools. And a new one is now unfolding amid revelations that teachers at a multi-ethnic Montreal elementary school have, for years, failed to teach mandatory science and sex-ed curriculum and intimidated colleagues who took issue with their rigid teaching methods.

A Quebec Ministry of Education report released earlier this month on the “toxic climate” at École Bedford in Montreal’s Côte-des-Neiges neighbourhood has created a firestorm of controversy by detailing the activities of a “dominant clan” of 11 teachers, mainly of North African origin, who allegedly ran roughshod over their superiors and deprived students of ministry-mandated course content they deemed incompatible with their religious values.

The ministry undertook its investigation after a Montreal radio station last year claimed that some teachers at École Bedford took part in Muslim cleansing rituals and prayers, refused to allow special-education teachers of the opposite sex into their classrooms, prevented girls from playing soccer and spurned teaching art, ethics, history, science and sex-education curriculum to their fifth- and sixth-grade pupils.

Education Minister Bernard Drainville this week retracted the teaching permits of the 11 educators, pending a broader investigation. They had already been suspended from their jobs at École Bedford by the Centre des services scolaires de Montréal, which oversees the city’s French-language public schools. Mr. Drainville further ordered investigations into several other Montreal public schools where reports of similar violations of the Education Act have arisen.

Coalition Avenir Québec Premier François Legault has ordered Mr. Drainville and his Minister Responsible for Secularism, Jean-François Roberge, to examine “all options” for strengthening secularism in public schools. “In Quebec, we decided, long ago, to take religion out of our public schools,” Mr. Legault wrote on X on Tuesday. “We will never accept going backwards.”

The measures being contemplated could include amendments to Bill 21 – the controversial 2019 legislation that bans teachers from wearing religious symbols, while exempting those whose employment predated the law – to cover teaching practices and extracurricular activities carried out on school property.

Truth be told, though, it was not that long ago that Quebec officially purged religion from its public school system.

For most of the province’s history, francophone children attended publicly funded Catholic schools, where catechism classes were mandatory, while most anglophone kids went to Protestant schools, where little or no religious curriculum was taught. The arrangement was even enshrined in the 1867 Constitution.

Complications arose as post-Second-World-War immigration changed the ethnic and religious composition of many Montreal neighbourhoods, and as baby-boomer Quebeckers started leaving the Catholic Church in droves during the 1960s and 1970s. The adoption of Bill 101 in 1977 created further dissonance as the children of immigrants, most of whom were non-Catholics, were required to attend French-language public schools, almost all of which were Catholic institutions.

A 1998 constitutional amendment enabled Quebec to scrap its confessional-school system for a linguistic-based one. But this legacy was not erased overnight. Hundreds of French-language public schools are still named after Catholic saints. And most of those built before 1998 still bear Catholic symbols.

Most Quebeckers do not have a problem with that. They see Quebec’s Catholic heritage as part of what makes it a distinct society. Though few of them are practising Catholics, they still value the traditions of their abandoned faith.

Not surprisingly, Mr. Legault and PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon have been one-upping each other in recent days in their defence of Quebec’s secularist values. After all, l’affaire Bedford also feeds into concerns, stoked by both leaders, that immigration is threatening Quebec’s identity.

“There is a specific problem in our schools, and it involves religious and ideological infiltration. And in the case of École Bedford, it has to do with Islamist infiltration,” Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon declared. “The number of schools where 75 per cent of students were not born in Quebec is quite high in Montreal. We should study how to achieve more mixing of students to avoid the formation of microcosms.”

Mr. Drainville, a former PQ cabinet minister best known for tabling a charter of Quebec values in 2013, is now on the receiving end of PQ attacks as he seeks to come up with a political response to the École Bedford controversy. Mr. Drainville’s charter served as the inspiration for the CAQ’s Bill 21.

Mr. Plamondon is now calling for an end to Quebec’s long-standing system of subsidizing religious private schools, and is promising a four-year moratorium on “economic” immigration if the PQ wins the next election, set for 2026.

For Mr. Legault, the temptation to seize on the École Bedford case to rebuild his own political capital may be too great to resist. Another battle over religion in public schools might suit him just fine.

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The divisions caused by preferential immigration policies and religion reach deeper and deeper into our society. It all goes back to a little boy on a Turkish beach and Prime Minister Trudeau's decision to use it as club to beat Stephen. Harper.
 

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Bloody Religion is a stain on the world. If it was just about community and helping your fellow humans I’d have no issue. But the rest? To hell with them all. 😑
 
Always remember that man (the books say man) was created in HIS image. Which means HE is a hormone driven horny old bastard who makes decision based on what's between his legs rather than what's above his shoulders.
 
Bloody Religion is a stain on the world. If it was just about community and helping your fellow humans I’d have no issue. But the rest? To hell with them all. 😑

Don't confuse religion and church, belief and people.

People can be bastards regardless of what they believe.
 
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