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Government hints at boosting Canada’s military spending

I'd add that we need to better utilize and expand the quantum physics/computing knowledge that resides within the University of Waterloo.

Sure. But that requires a precursor industry. Semiconductors. And then an industry to use those quantum computers. Ie. Electronics (particularly comms). We can't just randomly employ Quantum physicists and computational specialists. Unfortunately. This is who they would be competing with.


By the way, the feds tried with a small start-up (D-TA) for the OTH Radar contract. Unfortunately, the risk was too much to accept. Unfortunately, I think incidents live ArriveCan have massively reduced risk appetite for using small companies in Canada.

 
The F35's is next up. Legally we have to take the first 16 of the 88, after that its up for grabs. Buying the remaining 72 or 49 or a number somewhere in between is actively being discussed. This is mostly likely where a large European purchase will be made.

Give the 16 F-35s to the Snowbirds and have the pointy end of the RCAF operate 72 Gripens.
 
Give the 16 F-35s to the Snowbirds and have the pointy end of the RCAF operate 72 Gripens.

Gross. No.

Any discussion to replace the Hornet with ITAR vulnerability reduction should begin and end with the only contender that prioritizes reducing American components: the Rafale.

The US vetoed Gripen sales to Colombia. What makes people think they wouldn't do that to us?

If we're going down the road, make it a mixed fleet. Some American. And something else that the Americans will never be able to meddle with.

I would also like to see an explicit policy for ammunition and ordinance to reduce ITAR vulnerability. See the River Class dropping the British CAMM for the American RIM-116. The CAMM could have been used in some form by all three services. This is an area I wouldn't mind politicians imposing. Distasteful as it might be to some in the CAF and at DND.
 
It's arguably more 1:1 with some ships and armour and guns, etc. where technology effects aren't a step change.

But this is not the case on the air side. And especially not the case with fighters. Yet, people will keep talking about how we used to have 138 Hornets and are only getting 88 Panthers, as though is a reduction in capability. Truthfully, the F-35 is so capable that we could probably go 2:1 and still do much, much more than the Hornets did in the 80s.
we seem to ignore the simple truth that when we ordered 138 hornets we were maintaining bases and squadrons in Germany and were active participants on the ground in Europe. These pages are full of memories of Lar and Baden.
Item 2: 88 panthers may be the equivalent combat muscle as our previous 138 but they cannot provide cover over the same area: far from it. Ukraine is a little country comparatively speaking but even there the drones and missiles get through because there is just too much airspace to protect all of it.
 
we seem to ignore the simple truth that when we ordered 138 hornets we were maintaining bases and squadrons in Germany and were active participants on the ground in Europe. These pages are full of memories of Lar and Baden. 88 panthers may be the equivalent combat muscle as our previous 138 but they cannot provide cover over the same area: far from it. Ukraine is a little country comparatively speaking but even there the drones and missiles get through because there is just too much airspace to protect all of it.
Using 5th gen fighters is a stupidly expensive way to defend against cheap drones and missiles.

Here's a concept to consider: cost asymmetry.

If your plan is on the wrong side of that, you'll lose. Sooner or later.

Think about this famous incident:

 
Sure. But that requires a precursor industry. Semiconductors. And then an industry to use those quantum computers. Ie. Electronics (particularly comms). We can't just randomly employ Quantum physicists and computational specialists. Unfortunately. This is who they would be competing with.


By the way, the feds tried with a small start-up (D-TA) for the OTH Radar contract. Unfortunately, the risk was too much to accept. Unfortunately, I think incidents live ArriveCan have massively reduced risk appetite for using small companies in Canada.

I completely understand what your saying and where you're coming from but little point of us having a solid quantum physics/computer science programme right in the manufacturing heart of Canada unless we try to may use of it and incorporate it into our future plans. Otherwise, all that we'll be doing is subsidizing future US geniuses and millionaire/billionaires after they graduate and leave. Its the old maxim - if you don't use it then you lose it.
 
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Using 5th gen fighters is a stupidly expensive way to defend against cheap drones and missiles.

Here's a concept to consider: cost asymmetry.

If your plan is on the wrong side of that, you'll lose. Sooner or later.

Think about this famous incident:

If the drone were in the range band of a .50 cal HMG it could have taken it down.
 
Sure. But that requires a precursor industry. Semiconductors. And then an industry to use those quantum computers. Ie. Electronics (particularly comms). We can't just randomly employ Quantum physicists and computational specialists. Unfortunately. This is who they would be competing with.


By the way, the feds tried with a small start-up (D-TA) for the OTH Radar contract. Unfortunately, the risk was too much to accept. Unfortunately, I think incidents live ArriveCan have massively reduced risk appetite for using small companies in Canada.

I just randomly picked this particular Prof at U of Waterloo Institute of Quantum Computing.


Have a read on this person and what they are working on, sounds an awful lot like the above video. This is the type of person that we can't afford to lose to the Americans. The fact that she went to the US for all of her schooling yet came to Waterloo is telling.
 
I just randomly picked this particular Prof at U of Waterloo Institute of Quantum Computing.


Have a read on this person and what they are working on, sounds an awful lot like the above video. This is the type of person that we can't afford to lose to the Americans. The fact that she went to the US for all of her schooling yet came to Waterloo is telling.

There's been a long known gap between in Canada between research and commercialization. You know what would help? More money. But instead governments try to offer tax cuts. Like that helps anybody starting out.

In this particular example, I'll stand by what I said, their talent can't be used outside academia and research because we don't have the industrial base to use that talent. There's only two options here. Leave that talent in academia and research. Or build an electronics industry to mobilize that talent. Given the reaction in this country to Telesat's Lightspeed proposal (especially from the right) which was $5B, I'm (sadly) pessimistic people would support tens of billions to build an electronics industry focused on quantum computing from scratch.
 
To a point. You know what is easier? Defences actually built for counter-UAS:



And eventually DEWS to really defeat cost asymmetry.


Guys with .50 cals aren't stopping a drone swarm. They may get a few before the gunner gets taken out.

True, but, the short range demands lots of firing points to supply ubiquitous coverage. Those DEWS and 30s still only give ranges of 2 to 5 km and cost in the 2 to 20 MUSD range each.

Operating costs go down but capital costs go up.
 
There's been a long known gap between in Canada between research and commercialization. You know what would help? More money. But instead governments try to offer tax cuts. Like that helps anybody starting out.

In this particular example, I'll stand by what I said, their talent can't be used outside academia and research because we don't have the industrial base to use that talent. There's only two options here. Leave that talent in academia and research. Or build an electronics industry to mobilize that talent. Given the reaction in this country to Telesat's Lightspeed proposal (especially from the right) which was $5B, I'm (sadly) pessimistic people would support tens of billions to build an electronics industry focused on quantum computing from scratch.
Trust me I'm well aware. I have a loong list of friends/classmates that have left Canada over the last 2.5 decades for the US and greener economic pastures. I'm well aware that if my wife and I didn't leave Boston that we'd be ahead in terms of dollars and cents if we had stayed.

Its cheaper for us to 'steal' the best and brightest from India, Pakistan, South Africa, Kenya, Lebanon, etc than it is for us to put together a comprehensive programme to keep our 'homegrown' people. Look at the 'sunshine list' for public servants in Ontario - it started in 1996 as a way of informing the public which civil servants were making 100k/yr. Now 100k/yr was alot of money in 1996 but today, 30yrs later, its really not alot of money - so many middle class people are now on this list and people still complain about the list and how individuals on it are 'over paid'. Such 'small ball' talk, from little minded people.

Going back to your 'Telesat' example and the 'right' complaining - again its coming from 'small ball' people who typically are the same people talking about the Sunshine List. The 'right' in Canada has gathered into its flock large numbers of people who traditionally would have voted NDP, thus PP and his crew is having to pander to these groups. I would argue that the same can be said with PP's religious minded followers, again a large number of 'small ball' people. These PP followers would be DEAD against spending that kind of money to build an electronics industry because they and their kids/families wouldn't get anything out of it - it would not be them or their kids or their family members getting the jobs/opportunities to work in that industry because they lack the skills to obtain those jobs. They would rather the money be spent in cutting them a monthly/quarterly cheque for 'dental' or some other 'free' handout for them. They lack the ability in seeing how this investment would benefit the entire country, thus down the road benefiting them.
 
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True, but, the short range demands lots of firing points to supply ubiquitous coverage. Those DEWS and 30s still only give ranges of 2 to 5 km and cost in the 2 to 20 MUSD range each.

Operating costs go down but capital costs go up.

The idea of ubiquitous coverage is silly, impractical and uneconomic. There will never be ubiquitous coverage unless you're a small country like Israel which is a basically a coastal corridor of urban agglomerations.

Low density assets get assigned to High Value Targets. And we go down that list the more assets there are till the enemy can basically only get through to hit cowsheds with no real military value.
 
The idea of ubiquitous coverage is silly, impractical and uneconomic. There will never be ubiquitous coverage unless you're a small country like Israel which is a basically a coastal corridor of urban agglomerations.

Low density assets get assigned to High Value Targets. And we go down that list the more assets there are till the enemy can basically only get through to hit cowsheds with no real military value.

Our neighbour, and partner in NORAD and continental defence seems to aspire to the ubiquitous solution. And who are we to say him nay?

In any event, if we start allocating defences solely to vital points how long before everybody wants to be a vital point?

Which point on a 3000 km pipeline is the vital one?
 
Our neighbour, and partner in NORAD and continental defence seems to aspire to the ubiquitous solution. And who are we to say him nay?
They aren't doing it for drones. They are pursuing that for missile defence. There's a difference.

You can literally read the order here:

 
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