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Election 2009?

There are only a few of us here old enough to remember the UI mess when it was introduced circa 1972. The qualifying period was ridiculously low because the NDP dictated the terms in return for supporting the Liberal minority government. The press was full of stories of young people who spend the winter skiing (with UIC Ski Team T Shirts) on pogey. That was only the most obvious abuse and it set off an orgy of boondoggles.

It may be that Iggy and his gang see this as a way to gain popularity with the world owes me a living crowd.

Rifleman62. I think you are correct about her husband.
 
Although we have a thread in which this subject is discussed, I put this item, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the CBC website, here because I think it might be a suitable “trigger” for a fall election if the Liberals get either caught or smart on the EI issue:

http://www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2009/08/21/ottawa-nortel-opposition-review-sale-ericsson.html
Nortel sale review required by law: Opposition

Friday, August 21, 2009

CBC News

The Liberal Opposition wants the federal government to review the $1.13 billion sale of Nortel's wireless assets to Sweden's Ericsson, insisting it is required by law.

"This technology was developed with the support of Canadian taxpayers," said Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff in a statement Friday. "If Stephen Harper and [Industry] Minister [Tony] Clement do not review this sale, they are wilfully turning their backs on their own law and the future of Canada's technology sector."

Nortel, a telecommunications company that was once the crown jewel of Canada's high-technology sector, filed for bankruptcy protection in January in Canada and the United States and is liquidating its assets. Courts in both countries approved the wireless sale to Ericsson on July 28.

At that time, Clement had said the government was reviewing the bid. Prime Minister Stephen Harper confirmed Aug. 11 that the federal government won't block the sale.

Clement's spokesman, Darren Cunningham, told CBC News on Friday afternoon that by law, the minister was unable to comment on the matter.

Under the Investment Canada Act, transactions involving foreign takeovers are automatically reviewed if their book value exceeds $312 million and the industry minister has 45 days to determine whether or not to allow the investment.

Although the sale of the wireless unit was for $1.13 billion US, Nortel said the book value of the assets was only $149 million US.

In response to Ignatieff, Ericsson Canada Inc. president and CEO Mark Henderson reiterated that the book value of what his company is buying is far below the level that triggers a review.

Henderson also said the technology Ericsson wants to buy from Nortel is not taxpayer-supported because much of the work was done outside of Canada and therefore not eligible for government grants or tax credits.

Liberal Industry critic Marc Garneau said in a statement that Clement "can't play games with the numbers."

"If Ericsson is willing to pay $1.1 billion US for Nortel's wireless assets, that's what they're worth. Before the deal can go through, it must be subject to a mandatory review," he said.

Earlier this week, Research in Motion issued a statement also calling for a review. The Waterloo-based BlackBerry smartphone maker has claimed certain conditions kept RIM from bidding for Nortel.

As I mentioned, elsewhere, there are two problems with this as a “trigger:”

1. Ericsson is not an American conglomerate. Being anti-foreign can be “good” but being anti-American is a sure fire way to win votes; and

2. There is a big time Québec vs. Ontario issue here. Québec wants this deal; Ontario isn’t keen but is somewhat reluctant to make too much noise.

________________

Mods: might a name change be in order? Say to just Summer Election 2009? A summer election is, now, a practical impossibility.
 
Harper’s Tories open big lead over Liberals, poll says
Andrew Mayeda, Canwest News Service  Published: Sunday, August 23, 2009
Article Link

OTTAWA -- Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives have surged to a big lead over the opposition Liberals in the eyes of Canadian voters, reveals a new poll, a trend that could dampen speculation of a fall election.

In a discouraging sign for the Liberals, party leader Michael Ignatieff trails the prime minister on bread-and-butter issues at the forefront of many Canadians' minds, such as the ability to steer the economy through recovery and rebalance the country's finances. If the trend continues, Ignatieff could soon be facing roughly the same poll numbers as his beleaguered predecessor, Stephane Dion.

The Conservatives now command 39% in support among decided voters, compared with 28% for the Liberals, according to the survey, conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National by Ipsos Reid. Since the last Ipsos poll two months ago, the Tories have climbed five percentage points, while the Grits have slumped seven points.

The NDP stand in third at 14% of the vote, up one point; followed by the Green party at 10%, up two points. The Bloc Quebecois posted 8% in support nationally, while 7% of respondents were undecided.
More on link
 
According to this, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail, the  Canwest News Service-Global Nationa/Ipsos Reid poll may have been anomalous:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tories-liberals-mired-in-dead-heat/article1262562/
Tories and Liberals mired in dead heat
Amid talk of fall election, Harris-Decima survey suggests parties remain in statistical tie

Ottawa — The Canadian Press
Monday, Aug. 24, 2009 03:10PM EDT

A new poll suggests the Conservatives and Liberals remain locked in a dead heat amid rumblings of a possible fall election.

The Harris-Decima survey conducted for The Canadian Press put the parties in a statistical tie, with 32 per cent support for the Liberals and 31 per cent for the Tories.

The NDP were at 16 per cent, the Greens at 11, and the Bloc Québécois at nine.
The numbers have barely budged throughout the summer, a period in which voters are typically disengaged.

Some Liberals have been pushing for an autumn election while the Tories have been trashing the idea, saying it would hurt the economic recovery.

The survey of just over 2,000 respondents was conducted Aug. 13-23 and is considered accurate to within 2.2 percentage points 19 times in 20.

My suspicion is that it was that magical 20th time (out of 20) for Ipsos Reid, but the Liberals should have gained on several Tory missteps over the summer – but they didn’t.

See: http://v1.theglobeandmail.com/cartoon

They, the Liberals, appear to have wasted the summer.

 
Any bets the LPC will try and make the H1N1 an election issue, i.e. the government contingency plan is inadequate, not enough vaccine, not enough qualified personnel to administer the vaccine, we (LPC) can do better, etc, etc. Delivery of health care is provincial responsibility, but the LPC will be aided by the usual suspects: The Parliamentary Press Gallery, the CBC, etc, etc.
 
I suspect that if you have been a particular political party's polling firm for XXX years, that the pool of respondents canvassed each time depending on the issue doesn't vary all that much.....if you already know how they will respond, and you want to collect a paycheque, then why would you reinvent the wheel each time you do a survey...
 
The Liberals are reported to be gearing up for 9 or 16 Nov 09, according to this item reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-gear-up-for-fall-election-after-an-uneventful-summer/article1262998/
Liberals gear up for fall election after an uneventful summer

Party says it's ‘in good shape' as it prepares campaign, eyeing Nov. 9 and Nov. 16 as potential voting days

Jane Taber
Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2009

Michael Ignatieff's Liberals are stepping up their election readiness, preparing attack ads against the Harper Conservatives and discussing two dates in November as the most likely scenario for a vote.
The Liberal Leader has already posed for campaign pictures at his official residence, Stornoway. And as many as 40 candidates out of a possible 75 in Quebec will be nominated by Labour Day.

Senator David Smith, one of the co-chairs of the national campaign, says the Liberals are in “good shape” in the rest of Canada as well with the bulk of the 233 other candidates ready to go by mid-September.

In an interview that appeared yesterday in the French-language newspaper Le Devoir, Mr. Ignatieff said he is “reflecting on when to call an election.”

The shift in Liberal focus comes amid criticism from political observers of Mr. Ignatieff's lost summer – one that some believe he has squandered, failing to tell Canadians why the Harper government should be defeated and what he would do if he were prime minister.

Many Liberals were in momentary disbelief yesterday after the weekend release of a devastating national opinion poll that showed the Conservatives with an 11-point lead over the Liberals.

But there was deep skepticism around the poll. Even Harper Tories questioned it, sending out “talking points” to their MPs, noting the poll is not consistent with other polling. A Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll released yesterday afternoon put the two parties in a statistical tie, where they have been all summer.

Mr. Ignatieff is in the Northwest Territories this week where he plans to take some holidays in advance of meeting his caucus in Sudbury for its annual summer retreat next week. MPs and senators will be briefed on election readiness and national poll numbers at that time.

Liberal House Leader Ralph Goodale said several issues will inform Mr. Ignatieff's decision on whether to try to bring down the government, chief among them: determining what progress has been made on the key Liberal issue of reforming employment insurance, the overall state of the fiscal framework and whether the government has moved beyond “photo opportunities and re-announcements of old news” when it comes to infrastructure.

It will take all three opposition parties to defeat the government. And the Liberals will have their first opportunity to bring in a no-confidence motion in late September or early October. If successful, it would trigger an election around the dates in November that are being discussed, Nov. 9 and Nov. 16.

As for a Liberal campaign plane, Mr. Smith was more circumspect, saying that was “under control.” The Liberals had difficulty in the last election securing a plane. Mr. Smith said the recession, which has led to fewer people flying, has given the Liberals more options.

Darrell Bricker, the Ipsos-Reid pollster who conducted the poll showing the huge Tory lead, defended his numbers yesterday, saying the Liberals are lacking momentum, in part because Mr. Ignatieff is a “cipher.” Canadians don't know him or his policies.

But Albina Guarnieri, a senior Ontario Liberal MP who chairs Mr. Ignatieff's early-morning strategy group when the House is sitting, says the summer really isn't the time to do that. No one is really paying attention.

She says Mr. Ignatieff will begin soon to “showcase his ideas and he'll make his case.”

Liberals defend Mr. Ignatieff, saying he has been touring the country, meeting the grassroots. As well, he did not take his usual holiday in Europe, spending time instead in Ottawa in July, working on his speeches and his platform.

“It's notoriously tough for opposition parties to get much national ink (especially in the summer). Where Michael has been coverage has been positive and response has been good,” said Toronto Liberal MP Bob Rae. “Things will come together in Sudbury, and parliamentary life will get refocused at end of September. … Then we'll see.”


I remain hopeful. An elections is, in my view, a good thing because it stops all stimulus spending and, thereby, rescues Canada from an inflationary spiral – better late than never.
 
I work for Service Canada, and a group of us are usually recruited to work for Elections Canada when something is coming up... last week they asked for us to get a team together and have everyone trained by October 1st. So I guess everyone is expecting something to happen soon!
 
It's notoriously tough for opposition parties to get much national ink (especially in the summer). Where Michael has been coverage has been positive and response has been good,” said Toronto Liberal MP Bob Rae.

Bob Rae continues to smoke something causing hallucinations. What a ray of sunshine he is.

 
Well you can't say he hasn't been out there meeting the people!  :)

http://www.liberal.ca/en/michael-ignatieff/videos/16126_quebec-maritimes-tour---gaspe


Michael Ignatieff in Saint John, NB
17 Aug, 2009 | Excerpt from Michael Ignatieff's speech to the Saint John, NB, Board of Trade, August 13, 2009.Michael Ignatieff @ Miramichi Acadien Festival

15 Aug, 2009 | Michael Ignatieff's remarks at the Acadien Festival in Miramichi, NB.MI Visits Tri-Star

12 Aug, 2009 | Michael Ignatieff visits Tri-Star, the ambulance manufacturerMichael Ignatieff @ Port Morien Wharf

11 Aug, 2009 | MIchael talks with Cape Breton lobster fisherman.Quebec Maritimes tour - Gaspé
2 Aug, 2009


What's New?
Liberals recall agriculture committee to get food safety answers
Harper government inaction on border travel devastating tourism industry
Ukrainian Independence Day celebrations
Etobicoke-Lakeshore Protective Services BBQ
Liberals call for public investigation into abandoned Canadians abroad
Harper government playing political games with cancer patient care
Statement by Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff on the observance of Ramadan
 
Well, according to this report, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail, the Liberals understand that EI isn’t the “right” (or left) hot-button issue:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-wont-topple-tories-over-ei/article1267252/
Liberals won't topple Tories over EI
Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff takes questions after speaking to a luncheon audience hosted by the Saint John Board of Trade on Aug. 13, 2009. The Canadian Press
Senior party official dampens election speculation, but notes government could still face no-confidence vote on other issues


Bill Curry
Ottawa — The Globe and Mail

Thursday, Aug. 27, 2009

Having built up employment insurance reform as the single issue that avoided a summer election, Liberals now say it's not an issue worthy of triggering a vote in the fall.

Liberal Senator David Smith, a co-chairman of the national Liberal campaign, said even if his party's talks with the government fail to produce an agreement, that alone will not be enough to warrant an election.

That still leaves open the possibility of a no-confidence vote on other issues, such as the state of the economy, but the senior Liberal is clearly throwing cold water on election speculation as MPs prepare for a caucus retreat in Sudbury.

“To the extent that at some point [the government will fall], I do not believe it will be on unemployment insurance,” Mr. Smith said. “It's an important issue and it's an issue we want to address ... but I don't see that as the defining issue that would trigger an election.”

Mr. Smith said his comments do not rule out a fall election however he went on to say there have already been plenty of elections recently.

“In this minority period that we're now in, we've had three in four years,” he said. “Do you just have non-stop elections? Do Canadians really want that? Look at any of the polls when Canadians are asked ‘Do you want an election?' I remember the one in June was, I think, 81 per cent said no.”

Private negotiations between Liberals and the Conservative government have taken place over the course of the summer and another meeting is scheduled for next week. However participants from both sides have accused the other of being unwilling to compromise.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper also played down the EI issue recently, suggesting to reporters last week that positions of both sides are “a bit different” but that reforms would be announced in the fall.


Maybe I’m just whistling past a graveyard but it appears to me that Harper has recovered from a bad winter/spring - when Iggy might have beaten him, and the economy appears to be recovering (at least it has bottomed and should not get any worse), and Canadians appear to see no compelling reason to “throw the rascals out.”

I remain convinced that the Liberals missed their chance for 2009.

I guess I sortta understand an argument that an election is necessary just to prove that Iggy is not a wimp/clone of Celine Stéphane Dion and that even if the Liberals don’t win they will, likely, pick up a few seats and that will “strengthen” Ignatieff. I sortta understand it, but I don’t buy it.
 
I suspect one of the reasons the Liberals are not keen on an election with EI or the Economy as the trigger is lurking on the Left, rather than across the House.

The NDP can clearly take EI and the economy as "their" issues, and point to clearly articulated positions that clearly predate Mr Ignatieff's pontifications on these subjects. As well, any reading of the Liberal's positions (I can't really say "platform", since there is none) reveals them to be "Socialist Lite". While this is nothing new, what is different is the Liberals have moved much farther left in the last decade or so, and are now fighting in the same ideological territory as the NDP.

Perhaps Prime Minister Harper should make the contest explicit, telling voters the contest is between the CPC and NDP, and the Liberals and Greens are "me too" socialists and irrelevant for voters. An interesting thought....
 
Susan Riley is, pretty much, a charter member of Canada’s loony left, she probably thinks Jack Layton is a reactionary. But I guess she embraces Michael Ignatieff as the last, best hope to unseat Stephen Harper and the hated Conservatives. Anyway, here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Ottawa Citizen, is her advice to the Liberals:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/columnists/Ignatieff+problem/1937471/story.html
Ignatieff's big problem


By Susan Riley, The Ottawa Citizen
August 28, 2009


One thing Michael Ignatieff needs, if he is ever to succeed, is a quick and savage response team -- twitchy, obsessive partisans with no personal lives, no particular need for sleep and a pathological loathing of Conservatives. (Sort of like, well, you know ...)

Liberals have to be faster and more emphatic in answering Tory jibes about Ignatieff's patriotism, his commitment to his job, his alleged eagerness to raise taxes --quicker at countering those nasty Tory mailouts displaying a question mark where Ignatieff's face should be. In fact, they should be doing the attacking, not the defending: heaven knows, the target is large and tempting.

Instead, the Liberal leader spent much of the fast-disappearing summer making dilatory and mostly ignored visits to anointed communities around the country, "thinking thoughts" at Stornoway, working behind the scenes on fundraising, helping triple party membership and searching out potential candidates.

While this might constitute the only serious infrastructure work going on in Ottawa -- and while the listless Liberal party desperately needs rebuilding -- it shouldn't be the only preoccupation of the leader.

Especially not when Prime Minister Stephen Harper is swanning around, unusually visible, looking self-assured, reasonable and dangerous.

If Ignatieff ever awoke from his professorial langour (or so it appears to casual onlookers), he would have noticed opportunities flying by, even in the sleepy summer season.

He has some renown as a champion of human rights. Why didn't he condemn Hamid Karzai's recent endorsement of an edited version of a law that still treats Afghan women as chattels? Why didn't he draw attention to Harper's sudden low profile on the same issue? And if he did speak out, see above: the need for a quick response team to get the message out.

He has been criticized elsewhere for missing a chance to defend Canadian health care in the face of the raging debate in the United States, for failing to exploit his personal ties with the Obama regime, for remaining mute on the harmonized sales tax -- a federal initiative that Harper is trying to blame on the provinces -- or the outrageous official indifference to Canadian citizens who find themselves in trouble abroad.

Lesser Liberals have squeaked about some of these issues. And no one wants to hear the chorus of complaint about everything which is the opposition leader's sorry duty. What the country needs --those who are fed up with Harper's cramped vision, at least -- is intelligent demolition of Conservative nostrums accompanied by optimistic and generous alternatives.

This is usually described as "policy" -- and the clamour for marketable and distinctive Liberal positions is building and will be heard again next week in Sudbury as Liberals hold their pre-session caucus. This will eventually lead to a glossy booklet which will be released amid much fanfare then forgotten -- unless it contains something truly novel (like a Green Shift), in which case it will be mercilessly eviscerated by rivals.

It isn't "policy" the Liberals need, not in the narrow sense, but a different approach to the country and its problems -- less hostile, hidebound and divisive than Harper's. Bob Rae embodies elements of that more "liberal" approach, so does Manitoba NDP Premier Gary Doer, U.S. President Barack Obama, even, on good days, Quebec Premier Jean Charest. So did Jean Chrétien, notwithstanding his authoritarian streak and animus towards separatists.

But does Michael Ignatieff? He appears culturally (fashionably) liberal and temperamentally conservative -- but, mostly, diffident. Diffidence can be a charming personal trait, but a political liability --especially when your opponent is a human blow torch when aroused, fiercely single-minded, utterly convinced of his own rightness, ruthless in incinerating stumbling rivals.

And no amount of aggressive staff work can cover confusion at the centre. After all these months, Ignatieff remains an enigma -- either undecided on key issues, absent, or a conservative trapped in the wrong party.

He once championed a carbon tax and now extols the tar sands. Like Harper, he supports the seal hunt (or did in Britain). In New Brunswick, recently, he endorsed an expansion of nuclear power, an issue by no means settled among Liberals and anathema to environmentalists. At the same time -- again, without conspicuous consultation -- he ended Liberal support for Quebec's small asbestos industry.

He has also promised restored funding for the CBC, public subsidy for the Digby-Saint John ferry and mused about an east-west power grid -- but much of what he says sounds improvised. Meanwhile, he hasn't bothered to defend his proposal to offer jobless benefits after nine weeks of work -- while Tories merrily portray this as a gift to shirkers.

Ignatieff is unusually self-aware, also observant, ambitious and bright. But if he is going to provoke an election this fall, and have any hope of winning, he needs to improve his game -- not just his staff.

Susan Riley writes on national politics. E-mail: sriley.work@gmail.com

© Copyright (c) The Ottawa Citizen


I think Riley is, broadly, correct. The Liberals have failed, thus far, anyway, to capitalize of Harper’s many weaknesses. He stumbled, badly, in the late winter/spring and Ignatieff did not pull the trigger when the target was clear and steady. Since then he (Harper) appears to have recovered (most? some of?) his poise and confidence.

Riley is right: Iggy appears diffident but Harper, more and more, appears confident and competent: essentially what Canadians want.

Canadians do not like Stephen Harper. That would be a problem if, but only IF they like Michael Ignatieff – but they appear not to like him. They do not dislike Ignatieff, but not being disliked (as Mulroney and Harper were actively disliked) is not enough; as Jean Chrétien understood you need more – you need Canadians to like you. Canadians liked Chrétien, as they liked Mike Pearson and Louis St Laurent. They “liked” Bob Stanfield, too, but they were awed by Trudeau and his charisma. Harper will work very hard to make sure that Canadians do not develop any real affection for Ignatieff. Harper will work, even harder, to make sure they respect him (Harper) for his steady hand on the economy.

I agree with Riley that Iggy needs a team of ” twitchy, obsessive partisans with no personal lives, no particular need for sleep and a pathological loathing of Conservatives” to run an aggressive counter-offensive but the “suggestion” (IF I read it right) that Warren Kinsella is the necessary guy to lead it is wrong, I believe. Kinsella has made himself the message, not the messenger; he is past his “best before” date and will do more harm than good by allowing the Tories to do even muddying of the Liberals’ message.



Edit: typo (misspelled Riley)
  :-[
 
"a pathological loathing of Conservatives". Is that not the Canadian media, led by the parliamentry press gallary? Wafergate is a example: 10 days of making news instead of reporting it.

Ignatieff is going to cry "Wolf" once too often. Possibly a walk in a snow storm to contemplate will propel a reason for another election.

 
E.R. Campbell said:
Canadians do not like Stephen Harper. That would be a problem if, but only IF they like Michael Ignatieff – but they appear not to like him. They do not dislike Ignatieff, but not being disliked (as Mulroney and Harper were actively disliked) is not enough; as Jean Chrétien understood you need more – you need Canadians to like you. Canadians liked Chrétien, as they liked Mike Pearson and Louis St Laurent. They “liked” Bob Stanfield, too, but they were awed by Trudeau and his charisma. Harper will work very hard to make sure that Canadians do not develop any real affection for Ignatieff. Harper will work, even harder, to make sure they respect him (Harper) for his steady hand on the economy.

Everyone and I mean everyone in the west loved Diefenbaker.  Talk to someone in Quebec and they hought he was an idiot.  I thought Pearson was a fumling idiot.  I thought Stanfield was a fumbling idiot.  I thought Trudeau should have been tried for treason and shot at dawn for playing regions against each other at election time, almost destroying the country.  I thought Mulroney was a self-centred ass.  I thought Chretien to be a devious fumbling idiot.  I like Harper - no personality cult like Iggy.

We musn't assume what people's general opinions on politicians are.  Based on actual polling results for the last 51 years people really liked Diefenbaker and Mulroney best followed by Chretien and Trudeau.
 
And another poll shows the CPC in the lead (34 to 30) over the Liberals.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/687829
 
Dennis Ruhl said:
Everyone and I mean everyone in the west loved Diefenbaker.  Talk to someone in Quebec and they hought he was an idiot.  I thought Pearson was a fumling idiot.  I thought Stanfield was a fumbling idiot.  I thought Trudeau should have been tried for treason and shot at dawn for playing regions against each other at election time, almost destroying the country.  I thought Mulroney was a self-centred ass.  I thought Chretien to be a devious fumbling idiot.  I like Harper - no personality cult like Iggy.

We musn't assume what people's general opinions on politicians are.  Based on actual polling results for the last 51 years people really liked Diefenbaker and Mulroney best followed by Chretien and Trudeau.


In the 24th general election (1958) Diefenbaker swept Canada, including Québec. Diefnbaker had ups and downs in the West, too. Prairie populism is well named and “the Chief” was adept at playing to it but only four years later, although he was re-elected, parts of the West, especially BC, abandoned him.

I don’t know what polling results you have at hand but while Canadians gave Diefenbaker and Mulroney huge majorities, once each, they did so for the same reason they gave Chrétien three successive majorities: no viable alternative.  “Likeability,” an important political assist, didn’t enter into those polls. 
 
More, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail web site, on poor Prince Michael’s dilemma:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/mulling-possible-election-liberals-look-to-boost-profile/article1269899/
Mulling possible election, Liberals look to boost profile
As the Liberals' caucus retreat takes place this week, Grits are agonizing – yet again – about if and when they should force an election

Joan Bryden

Ottawa — The Canadian Press
Sunday, Aug. 30, 2009

Michael Ignatieff seems destined to emerge from a Liberal caucus retreat in Sudbury, Ont., this week feeling something like a pushmi-pullyu.

Like the fictional two-headed llama, the Liberal Leader will be pushed and pulled in opposite directions as his MPs agonize over whether they should — finally — pull the plug on Stephen Harper's minority Conservative government.

Before attempting to pull the plug, Ralph Goodale, the Liberal House leader, concedes the party may need to give the fall parliamentary sitting “at least a little time to get its traction back” after Harper's “free ride” over the summer.

With that in mind, the Liberals are expected to start trying to regain some traction with a massive ad campaign — with a rumoured price tag of $2-million — after Labour Day. Insiders say the campaign is aimed at helping voters, for whom Mr. Ignatieff remains somewhat of a cipher, to get to know the leader and what he stands for.

According to Mr. Goodale, Liberals hope to use the fall to expand on the theme that — unlike Harper's “petty partisan negativity” — Mr. Ignatieff has an inspirational dream of turning Canadians into the best educated, healthiest, most productive, innovative and entrepreneurial people “on the face of the earth” by 2017, the 150th anniversary of Confederation.

While some strategists are counselling patience, others close to Mr. Ignatieff — and many MPs, who loathe propping up the government — are raring to plunge into a campaign. They argue that Mr. Ignatieff's and the party's credibility can't withstand yet another retreat.

Moreover, they point out that the party is organizationally more prepared for an election than it has been in years.

In the second quarter, Liberals finally managed to raise money on par with the cash-hoovering Tories. And, even in the doldrums of summer, national Liberal director Rocco Rossi says the party scored its “best August [fundraising results] in a very, very long time.”

Mr. Rossi says the party is also on track to meet his Labour Day goal of 100,000 members — almost triple the number who were signed up at the start of the year.

The campaign platform, which Mr. Ignatieff ordered to be finished by June, is also “in good shape,” according to platform chair Navdeep Bains.

But privately, some strategists and MPs admit they need time to regain ground lost over the summer, during which the Liberals' brief, late-spring public opinion lead over the Tories appears to have evaporated.

Most polls suggest they're back in a statistical tie with the Conservatives, or slightly behind. Insiders say internal party polling has found even weaker support, both for the party and Ignatieff, who has faced criticism for keeping a relatively low profile over the summer while the Prime Minister grabbed the limelight and basked in tentative signs of economic recovery.

The Liberals swallowed their objections and supported the Conservatives' recession-busting budget in January. They turned the trick again in June, backing away from the election brink after wringing a small concession from Harper: the creation of a bipartisan working group to study employment insurance reform.

At the time, Liberal spinners assured reporters this would be the last time the party would shy away from forcing an election. They boldly predicted defeat of the government was all but certain in the first week of October, when the Liberals would use a promised opposition day to propose a motion of non-confidence.

Senator David Smith, the Liberals' national campaign co-chairman, is openly saying EI reform — over which Liberals and Conservatives have been squabbling all summer — is not a sufficient election trigger. And he's arguing it would be irresponsible to defeat the government at the first opportunity.

As well, Smith says the party will have nominated the bulk of its candidates by the end of September.

Whatever his own reservations, Smith says: “If and when [an election] does happen, we'll be ready.”

Repeating myself, over and over again:

• An election is a welcome thing because –

o It stops the inflationary stimulus spending before it does serious harm, and

o It return another Conservative minority, at worst; and

• The reason it returns the Tories is that Iggy took counsel of his fears, last spring, and waited too long.

But it may be that the Liberals have painted themselves into a corner: go now, to an unnecessary and unpopular election, even with no good reason, or lose more and more ground by supporting Harper.
 
How apropos that the national Liberal director is someone named Rocco Rossi

 
This report, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail web site, makes life even more difficult for Prince Michael:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/mark-it-in-your-calendar-the-canadian-recession-ended-in-june/article1270472/
What analysts are saying

‘Mark it in your calendar – the Canadian recession ended in June'
Economists weigh in as Canadian economy shows first faint signs of recovery

Virginia Galt
Globe and Mail

Monday, Aug. 31, 2009

Statistics Canada reported Monday that Canada's gross domestic product grew by 0.1 per cent in June, the first monthly increase since July, 2008. The return to growth, although faint, was expected. Here's what the country's leading economists have to say:

The turnaround

Avery Shenfeld, chief economist for the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, said prior to Statscan's official release: “Mark it on your calendar – the Canadian recession ended in June.”

The economy has turned the corner, he said, “supported by growth in retailing, manufacturing, wholesaling and financial services, and is likely to be followed by more of the same over the summer.”

CIBC had expected more robust growth of 0.3 per cent in June, but held to its view that the recession appears to have ended.

Retail sales up, expect back-to-school boost

Canadian retail sales increased by 1 per cent in June. The increase was fuelled primarily by higher gasoline prices. Still, economists took this as a sign that consumers are feeling more confident.

The Bank of Nova Scotia said Monday this momentum is expected to continue. Back-to-school spending is firmer than had been predicted, with parents expected to spend an average of $310, about the same as last year.

“Spending by Canadian households on school-related goods and services typically is more stable than other discretionary purchases in both good and not-so-good times,” said Aron Gampel, Scotiabank's deputy chief economist.

Housing momentum builds

After a strong second quarter, the Canadian Real Estate Association has revised its outlook for the balance of the year, lifting its forecast for the number of resale homes trading hands to 432,600 in 2009, an annual decline in activity of just 0.4 per cent compared to levels set in 2008. The revision marks a significant upward change from the previously forecast decline of 14.7 per cent.

“Sales activity started off the third quarter on a strong footing. The difference in the resale housing market now, compared to the beginning of the year, is night and day, and nowhere is this more apparent than in the West,” association president Dale Ripplinger said.

Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at the Bank of Montreal agreed: “Some large cities will report home sales later this week, with early indications the momentum continued in August.”


The Liberals will claim that they forced the evil Tories to adopt sound economic policies that saved the country, but it’s a tough sell.

If the recession is, indeed, over, then what is the compelling reason to take Canadians into a general election in November?

 
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