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paracowboy said:
By that time we'll be at war with those dickheads from Neptune.
Discussion on Israeli Strategy
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By that time we'll be at war with those dickheads from Neptune.
Brad Sallows
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>And now, we have an even stronger Hezbollah, one equipped and prepared to an extent that even Israel and the US were unaware of.
The longer they exist relatively unhindered, the more powerful they grow. Does that suggest something?
Here are some planning assumptions:
1) Israel is not going to return the West Bank or Golan territory it holds without a fight.
2) Israel is not going to grant right of return to exiles without a fight.
If those assumptions hold true, then the only option for someone who wishes to attain those aims is to defeat Israel in war. Ethnic cleansing might or might not follow.
What are the purposes of organizations such as Hamas and Hezbollah? Do they exist to govern the people they nominally claim to protect, or do they exist to ultimately defeat Israel? If the former, there's no reason for them to attack Israel; and, if they can control the populations (ie. exercise responsibilities of sovereignty) there's no provocation for Israel to attack them.
If they purpose to defeat Israel in war, then they only need to get it right or get lucky once. That has always been a significant factor driving Israel's estimates of the situation throughout the Arab-Israeli conflicts. What would be prudent for Israel to do: pull each weed before it strongly takes root, or trust the gods of war to always remain on Israel's side?
The longer they exist relatively unhindered, the more powerful they grow. Does that suggest something?
Here are some planning assumptions:
1) Israel is not going to return the West Bank or Golan territory it holds without a fight.
2) Israel is not going to grant right of return to exiles without a fight.
If those assumptions hold true, then the only option for someone who wishes to attain those aims is to defeat Israel in war. Ethnic cleansing might or might not follow.
What are the purposes of organizations such as Hamas and Hezbollah? Do they exist to govern the people they nominally claim to protect, or do they exist to ultimately defeat Israel? If the former, there's no reason for them to attack Israel; and, if they can control the populations (ie. exercise responsibilities of sovereignty) there's no provocation for Israel to attack them.
If they purpose to defeat Israel in war, then they only need to get it right or get lucky once. That has always been a significant factor driving Israel's estimates of the situation throughout the Arab-Israeli conflicts. What would be prudent for Israel to do: pull each weed before it strongly takes root, or trust the gods of war to always remain on Israel's side?
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Bo, I've been reading your posts in this thread and in the '8 Canadians Killed Thread' and I am not sure what you would have Israel do?
They have been condemned over and over again by international organizations, but for some odd reason SURVIVAL matters more to them than what other people like you and me think.
For reasons inexplicable there are millions if not hundreds of millions of people on this planet who wish a person dead for being Jewish. Not Zionist, not Israeli, just Jewish. Thus the rockets.
You can hide it behind a noble political agenda (right of return!), but it's mostly religious/racist fanaticism.
You can dismiss that or counter it with some glib comment, or say it doesn't matter, but I rather think it does. You are on trial the second you are born Jewish, and would face a de facto death penalty in many parts of this world for your 'crime.'
Authoritarian governments have been feeding the anti-Zionist frenzy to distract their populations from their own failures, and 'blame the Jews' has been a great salve for tyrants from the Fall of Rome to the Black Plague to 2006.
The Jews have learned over and over again what happens when you don't have a state. Hitler is only the latest example.
One overlooked fact that most pogroms/attacks/genocides committed against Jewish people are done by populations and governments who originally invited them in:
Germany, Russia, Spain, England (Edward I), Iran, France ... and on and on and on.
Historically Jews have learned that friends are temporary and they have to trust in themselves.
Right now life is (relatively) good for Jewish people in the liberal West, but if history is any kind of teacher, the pendulum may swing in a few centuries and Jews may find themselves fleeing another disaster.
There is no other group on the planet that I can think of that has been laid into to consistently for the past 2,000 years.
Finally - FINALLY - they have a country where they make the rules, and dude, they aren't going to give it up because of some UN Resolution.
Funny thing, they use the rules to serve their own ends, and not anyone elses. That's what 2,000 years of getting the crap kicked out of you will teach you.
Whether their current actions will serve their own ends in the long run is an interesting debate.
It is only in the interest of realpolitik that Israel should consider restraint. Morality is easy when your existence is not threatened.
And despite their precarious position, they are usually quite moral at what they do (by no means perfect). That's not to say they haven't done some ugly things in the past, but again, they have one mission: SURVIVAL.
It's that simple. Not conquest. Not conversion. Not riches or glory. Just good old 'continuing to exist.'
Take it as given that there are many in the Islamic world who will not rest until Israel is destroyed and all Jews are dead. A significant portion of the Islamic world - not just the lunatic fringe, sadly.
Israel's main concern is destroying them when they can, lest they are destroyed. Almost all of Israel's 'aggressive' actions in the past are motivated by that tenet. Some are more effective than others.
How their current move plays on CNN is of a major concern only when Western Aid is threatened. THEN Israel plays nice. But I suspect they couldn't give a rat's tail otherwise.
Cases in point:
Once Egypt and Jordan stopped being aggressive, Israel stopped messing with them.
In other cases where Israel has held out an olive branch (withdrawal from Lebanon, handover of Gaza) they've been screwed. By who? By the intractable racists that will not rest until every Israeli is dead or forced to flee.
Right of Return = Israel is gone
Is Israel being heavy-handed or excessive? Here's the anecdotal Israeli answer - when you pledge unequivocally that you will defend my nation and people from annihilation, then you get a vote.
Otherwise, join the long, long 2,000 year old list of nations and leaders who watched Jewish people get massacred and only sent diplomatic regrets.
If you want to send aid, fine. Otherwise shut the hell up and get out of the way.
Remember, Israel will only lose one war. It's not a game to them. They truly don't care if the rest of the world judges them 'fair' or not.
Are the Israelis white-hat wearing Boy Scouts? No way. They fight dirty. They hit you when you aren't looking. The curb stomp you and take your bike.
Tough. Next time don't launch rockets at them.
That may get Amnesy International upset, but I didn't see any of the coffee-house critics sending tanks in '73 when the whole country came damn close to destruction.
Israel may tone it down if and when it is advantageous to do so, but photos of dead civilians won't affect them too much; they've seen too many of their own.
Rant off.
They have been condemned over and over again by international organizations, but for some odd reason SURVIVAL matters more to them than what other people like you and me think.
For reasons inexplicable there are millions if not hundreds of millions of people on this planet who wish a person dead for being Jewish. Not Zionist, not Israeli, just Jewish. Thus the rockets.
You can hide it behind a noble political agenda (right of return!), but it's mostly religious/racist fanaticism.
You can dismiss that or counter it with some glib comment, or say it doesn't matter, but I rather think it does. You are on trial the second you are born Jewish, and would face a de facto death penalty in many parts of this world for your 'crime.'
Authoritarian governments have been feeding the anti-Zionist frenzy to distract their populations from their own failures, and 'blame the Jews' has been a great salve for tyrants from the Fall of Rome to the Black Plague to 2006.
The Jews have learned over and over again what happens when you don't have a state. Hitler is only the latest example.
One overlooked fact that most pogroms/attacks/genocides committed against Jewish people are done by populations and governments who originally invited them in:
Germany, Russia, Spain, England (Edward I), Iran, France ... and on and on and on.
Historically Jews have learned that friends are temporary and they have to trust in themselves.
Right now life is (relatively) good for Jewish people in the liberal West, but if history is any kind of teacher, the pendulum may swing in a few centuries and Jews may find themselves fleeing another disaster.
There is no other group on the planet that I can think of that has been laid into to consistently for the past 2,000 years.
Finally - FINALLY - they have a country where they make the rules, and dude, they aren't going to give it up because of some UN Resolution.
Funny thing, they use the rules to serve their own ends, and not anyone elses. That's what 2,000 years of getting the crap kicked out of you will teach you.
Whether their current actions will serve their own ends in the long run is an interesting debate.
It is only in the interest of realpolitik that Israel should consider restraint. Morality is easy when your existence is not threatened.
And despite their precarious position, they are usually quite moral at what they do (by no means perfect). That's not to say they haven't done some ugly things in the past, but again, they have one mission: SURVIVAL.
It's that simple. Not conquest. Not conversion. Not riches or glory. Just good old 'continuing to exist.'
Take it as given that there are many in the Islamic world who will not rest until Israel is destroyed and all Jews are dead. A significant portion of the Islamic world - not just the lunatic fringe, sadly.
Israel's main concern is destroying them when they can, lest they are destroyed. Almost all of Israel's 'aggressive' actions in the past are motivated by that tenet. Some are more effective than others.
How their current move plays on CNN is of a major concern only when Western Aid is threatened. THEN Israel plays nice. But I suspect they couldn't give a rat's tail otherwise.
Cases in point:
Once Egypt and Jordan stopped being aggressive, Israel stopped messing with them.
In other cases where Israel has held out an olive branch (withdrawal from Lebanon, handover of Gaza) they've been screwed. By who? By the intractable racists that will not rest until every Israeli is dead or forced to flee.
Right of Return = Israel is gone
Is Israel being heavy-handed or excessive? Here's the anecdotal Israeli answer - when you pledge unequivocally that you will defend my nation and people from annihilation, then you get a vote.
Otherwise, join the long, long 2,000 year old list of nations and leaders who watched Jewish people get massacred and only sent diplomatic regrets.
If you want to send aid, fine. Otherwise shut the hell up and get out of the way.
Remember, Israel will only lose one war. It's not a game to them. They truly don't care if the rest of the world judges them 'fair' or not.
Are the Israelis white-hat wearing Boy Scouts? No way. They fight dirty. They hit you when you aren't looking. The curb stomp you and take your bike.
Tough. Next time don't launch rockets at them.
That may get Amnesy International upset, but I didn't see any of the coffee-house critics sending tanks in '73 when the whole country came damn close to destruction.
Israel may tone it down if and when it is advantageous to do so, but photos of dead civilians won't affect them too much; they've seen too many of their own.
Rant off.
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Excellent rant Probum 
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paracowboy said:
Further proof that you're refusing to leave your frame of reference when considering this conflict. Think of this statement. Was September 12, 2001 any different than September 10, 2001 for either an Israeli soldier or a Lebanese guerrilla? I didn't think so.
Are you sure about that? How is democracy supposed to be the cure-all. The Palestinian Territories had elections and they put Hamas in charge. Remember that Ahmadinejad fellow, yup - elected as well. Democracy will do no good when popular opinion is firmly against the West (for whatever reason).
Brad Sallows said:
Do you firmly believe that Israel will be able to "pull the root" - especially inlight of their 18 year failure to do so the first time? I don't know - stumbling around like a drunken frat-boy at a party doesn't seem very productive in achieving a desirable end state here. We should have learned that after the first invasion of Lebanon which led to the creation of Hezbollah in the first place (and, subsequently, Hamas, which it trains and supports).
So Israel pulls out? What's that do for the Lebanese government and it's ability to nurture democracy in Lebanon and act as an alternative to the Hezbollah? Now that the country has been pounded to dust, not much. Pulling the weeds or simply furrowing the ground for a new crop?
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probum non poenitet said:
A better analogy is that "they" curb stomp you, take your bike, and burn your house down wtih your family in it.
No one can argue that Jewish people have been victimized. But Israel isn't the Jewish people- no more than Hamas, Al-Qaeda, or Hezballah constitute the Muslim people. Acts of terror are not justifiable. Ever. It's hypocracy to critisize Hezballah while defending Israel's current actions or vice versa.
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Infanteer said:
A point well made Infanteer ...
That's the apparently unsolvable riddle isn't it?
Every time you go cut the head off the hydra, more heads grow.
On the other side of the coin, if you do nothing, that one fricking head still attacks you.
However, Egypt finally came to the bargaining table after being defeated at least four times ('48 '56 '67 '73) - am I forgetting some? (I'm not being sarcastic).
It was only after the Israelis handed them their asses AGAIN that they decided to 'give peace a chance' - and essentially have ever since.
I imagine the reasoning is (as brutal as it sounds) that if Lebanon gets smashed enough, eventually they will figure out that it's easier to kick out Hezbollah et al by themselves than wait for the Israelis to do it.
Will it work? Who knows. Certainly not in the short term. And it won't win Israel any friends.
But, as I stated above, Israel doesn't care much for what others think, just so long as they are giving the beating and not taking it.
Not pretty at all, not by any means ...
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TA said:
I get that.
Here's the big difference. When the PLO, Hamas, AQ, etc. get chased from one country, they flee to another one, where they are generally welcomed with open arms and are free to practise their violent interpretation of Islam. Shall I list the countries ... ? Lebanon, coincidentally, was one.
If the Israelis lose, where do they go? You could list some countires that accept Jews for now, but the predominant Israeli mindset is that deep down they can't count on anyone but themselves.
Unfortunately, history bears them out.
If a nation decides to persecute Jews, Israel is the only place on the planet that is guaranteed to accept them. That makes it different from any other country on the planet. There is no falling back, and it makes their situation more desparate than any other nations I can think of.
They are not playing by our rules, because nobody has ever played by their rules, not for centuries.
I'm not saying it's great, but I understand why they act the way they do.
I'm not saying what they are doing is morally wonderful.
But here's the amazing thing: when the Israelis are left alone, they leave those countries alone.
When countries either:
a) attack Israel
b) build up forces to attack Israel
c) harbor forces that attack Israel
the Israelis strike first, strike hard, and generally win.
Countires that don't do one of the three above things have not been attacked by Israel. Can you give me an example?
More importantly, some countries who have been attacked by Israel and beaten several times get the message and stop the insanity. (Egypt, Jordan)
PERHAPS that is what is happening now. PERHAPS Israel has just gone nuts.
But by and large Israelis do things for a reason, even when they appear off the wall at first look.
On the other hand, Hezbollah and the gang will attack Israel and continue to attack Israel until it is destoyed. They will not stop until the state of Israel is destroyed.
That is their raison d'etre. That limits your options somewhat when dealing with them, wouldn't you agree?
Israel could release every prisoner and give every Palestinian an olive farm, and Hezbo would still be out to destroy Israel. They don't think of victory and defeat in the same way Western countries do.
Once again, faced with the thought of seeing Israel destroyed, or doing horrible things to protect it and facing moral outrage, most Israelis pick the latter.
You can call them terrorists if you want, that's your luxury.
Al Qaeda will never destroy the United States or Canada ... they can damage us, hurt us, kill us, but the chance of them destroying our countries is pretty small.
There is a considerable possibility that if Israel were to let down its guard at the wrong time, it would be destroyed. If they let the groups on their borders fester, they can grow and do MAJOR damage as opposed to symbolic damage.
In the minds of many Israelis that justifies whatever they do ... you may not agree with it, and many Israelis don't either.
But if Israel loses a war, to us it will just be another topic for discussion, another chapter in history.
For them it's game over.
I respect your horror at this, I am just a bit more jaded I suppose.
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I have the same problem in my backyard. The wife won't let me use chemical warfare or pave the place over so every year we expend a lot of energy and weed-eater line chopping down the dandelions, pulling up the thistles and generally keeping the mess down to a manageable level.
As paracowboy said: job security.
By the way Infanteer it is not 18 years of Israeli failures. Its millenia of everyone's failures everywhere. Methinks I detect a pattern.
I am probably at least as jaded as Probum.
Anybody got a timeline on the second coming yet? There's a good movie coming out I don't want to miss.
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Kirkhill said:
Yup. Pretty much.
My solution is to invite Israel wholesale to Canada. We could use the infusion of 7 million good citizens. If people there are truly interested in a liberal democratic home they can call their own, we've got two perfectly good ones here in North America; neither with a history of any real anti-Semitism. Real liberal democracies don't need established churches anyways. Plus, no worries about rocket attacks or anything. Let the Arabs have their pile of sand.
If they want to stay because of some religious reason, then so be it, leave 'em there. Let them fight it out over some 2000 year stones; I don't give a shit. A pox on both their houses. I'm not particularly interested in dying in a ditch over competing claims to Jerusalem....
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Part of the problem is the different time-lines each player is working on.
The State of Israel needs to end attacks against it's civilian population NOW.
Iran needs a few years to finish its nuclear program and make a bid to become regional hegemon.
The United States needs decades to get a consensual, free market democracy with strong civic institutions going in Iraq, and the influence of that to spread throughout South West Asia.
Iran has to derail the purple finger strategy, but has the element of time on its side (the American play takes a generation). They can continue to unleash and reign in its creatures Hezbollah and Hamas (and their allies/partners in crime/partners of conveinience Syria) to keep the situation in the region confuesd long enough to realize their ambitions. I suspect the Saudis and Syrians, who also harbour regional ambitions based on Wahabbi authoratarianism or Ba'athist secular rule are realizing they are also in a very hard place; the purple finger is also raised against them (hence their not so subtle support for Iraqi insurgency), but Shiite theocratic rule is probably not part of their master plan either.
The mismatch of goals, ambitions and timelines are enough to make a grown man weep, and certainly far beyond the ability of mere mortals to untangle. Cutting throught the Gordian knot really means confronting Iran, with all that implies.
The State of Israel needs to end attacks against it's civilian population NOW.
Iran needs a few years to finish its nuclear program and make a bid to become regional hegemon.
The United States needs decades to get a consensual, free market democracy with strong civic institutions going in Iraq, and the influence of that to spread throughout South West Asia.
Iran has to derail the purple finger strategy, but has the element of time on its side (the American play takes a generation). They can continue to unleash and reign in its creatures Hezbollah and Hamas (and their allies/partners in crime/partners of conveinience Syria) to keep the situation in the region confuesd long enough to realize their ambitions. I suspect the Saudis and Syrians, who also harbour regional ambitions based on Wahabbi authoratarianism or Ba'athist secular rule are realizing they are also in a very hard place; the purple finger is also raised against them (hence their not so subtle support for Iraqi insurgency), but Shiite theocratic rule is probably not part of their master plan either.
The mismatch of goals, ambitions and timelines are enough to make a grown man weep, and certainly far beyond the ability of mere mortals to untangle. Cutting throught the Gordian knot really means confronting Iran, with all that implies.
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a_majoor said:
Agreed on all points.
I propose we forget about it and get drunk. :blotto:
Has that been tried?
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I think it did alot, after Sept 11, Hezbollah was labeled as a terrorist organization so is Hamas...etc. I agree though with all your other points, this is a problem will not be solved today.
If the Israelis really wanted to stop Hezbollah attacks from the south, they should have bombed southern positions more, entered south lebanon, then gave the Lebanese government the chance to go after Hezbollah for putting Lebanon in such an awkward situation.
Instead, Israel has chose an all out war against Hezbollah and Lebanon which in the end Hezbollah will continue to merge the savior of Lebanon, regardless of the war outcome. Israel didn't stop the PLO when it entered Beirut in 80s, nor it will be able to stop Hezbollah now.
That part of the world needs some serious peace work and full time, empowered UN force on the borders. All the problems are linked together, you can't solve Israel-Lebanon without solving Israel-Palestine , Israel-Syria ...etc.
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tamouh said:
I wasn't aware that Hizballah had all their men and equipment nicely lined up in along the border. You really think the Lebanese government would, not to mention even COULD, go after Hizballah?
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:blotto:
Anyone really think Israel cares about European opinion?
In reality do you think we (the western gov'ts) really care how much collatoral damage gets inflicted? Part of the problem these days is everyone (especially the whinny western public) forgets to win you really must be prepared to burn the other motherfuckers out -- in this case Syria and Iran.
I have no doubt that Israel will if they beleive it is in their best interest.
I'm all for Israel driving to the Sea - and North and West. It would sure solve the timeline for us.
I'm getting to the point that I see the 4th Crusade as the only viable option.
Anyone really think Israel cares about European opinion?
In reality do you think we (the western gov'ts) really care how much collatoral damage gets inflicted? Part of the problem these days is everyone (especially the whinny western public) forgets to win you really must be prepared to burn the other motherfuckers out -- in this case Syria and Iran.
I have no doubt that Israel will if they beleive it is in their best interest.
I'm all for Israel driving to the Sea - and North and West. It would sure solve the timeline for us.
I'm getting to the point that I see the 4th Crusade as the only viable option.
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Interesting comment from a 6 year old evacuee on CTV last night. The reporter asked him what the most scary sound he had heard was. The answer he gave: "The sound of the rockets going to the moon."
I am no ordnance expert. Nor have I heard incoming our outgoing missiles so I put this to the congregation. Is it likely that a 6 year old would confuse the sound of incoming and outgoing rockets? I didn't think that rocket powered missiles drove all the way to the target, that they went ballistic early on in their trajectory. If he was hearing outgoing rockets exactly where was he evacuated from?
I am no ordnance expert. Nor have I heard incoming our outgoing missiles so I put this to the congregation. Is it likely that a 6 year old would confuse the sound of incoming and outgoing rockets? I didn't think that rocket powered missiles drove all the way to the target, that they went ballistic early on in their trajectory. If he was hearing outgoing rockets exactly where was he evacuated from?
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The only comment I will make is our Steve has let his religious belief's cloud his judgment as PM.
Yes Hezbollah struck first by the kidnapping of 2 Soldiers but the Israeli reaction is above and beyond the norm and verging on War Crime's.
Yes Israel has a right to exist but the reaction is unacceptable from both side's.
Israel will not crush Hezbollah,all's they have done is created a bigger fighting force with in Lebanon and even though they may have only AK's they will not wipe them out and end up in a Vietnam type of War.
It's already been proven when the Hezies ambushed a Israeli special force,2 killed 8 wounded on the border.
They are not the old sand bandit's of yore,they are trained guerrillas now, as they have learned from lesson's past and may also have the weapon's to take on a conventional army.
If it was me just Nuke the whole Middle East and pave it make it into one big drive in Movie Theater
Jew and Arab a like,I'm tired of this part of the world,both are becoming a curse on the rest of the world.
Before you make comment I still remember 68 War and I was 15 when all hell let lose because I remember on the Tube about our own Peace Keeper's.
Yup I'm tired of the whole thing,Nuke them all and then we may have peace untill then we won't!!!!!!!!!!!
Yes Hezbollah struck first by the kidnapping of 2 Soldiers but the Israeli reaction is above and beyond the norm and verging on War Crime's.
Yes Israel has a right to exist but the reaction is unacceptable from both side's.
Israel will not crush Hezbollah,all's they have done is created a bigger fighting force with in Lebanon and even though they may have only AK's they will not wipe them out and end up in a Vietnam type of War.
It's already been proven when the Hezies ambushed a Israeli special force,2 killed 8 wounded on the border.
They are not the old sand bandit's of yore,they are trained guerrillas now, as they have learned from lesson's past and may also have the weapon's to take on a conventional army.
If it was me just Nuke the whole Middle East and pave it make it into one big drive in Movie Theater
Jew and Arab a like,I'm tired of this part of the world,both are becoming a curse on the rest of the world.
Before you make comment I still remember 68 War and I was 15 when all hell let lose because I remember on the Tube about our own Peace Keeper's.
Yup I'm tired of the whole thing,Nuke them all and then we may have peace untill then we won't!!!!!!!!!!!
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