Discussion on Israeli Strategy

[CanadaPhil]

I find it interesting to note that Hezbollah decided to act when they did.  They saw the reaction of Israel to Hamas murdering soldiers and abducting another.  They must have known full well what Israel would do if Hezbollah conducted the same operation as Hamas.  Therefore, Israel is likely behaving exactly as Hezbollah expects.  So, what is Hezbollah's aim?  

Maybe I am giving them too much credit but  I believe that this incident has been planned for a LONG TIME (right back to the departutre of the Syrians) and it is no accident that it is coinciding with the Hamas operation.

I have to say that I was literally stunned when Syria pulled out in '05. It was almost like, "Dont worry Hezbollah...we can create an issue for us to come back in soon and next time we will have a firmer grip".

I am beginning to think that this whole thing has been orchestrated as a pre-text for the Syrian military to re-occupy parts of Lebanon under the guise of bringing "security" back to Lebanon once the Israeli's have battered the crap out of it (Which is exactly what they knew would happen if Hezbollah were to attack Israel)

 

[Infanteer]

For the eager fellows in these parts, stop to think for a moment.

We have a series of actions by Hamas/Hezbollah that have provoked a massive response by Israel.  Is this really going to help our cause?  Is this really going to convince most Middle Eastern people that the West really wants to help?  The Cedar Revolution has been one of the West's only real successes in the region to date, but now we have a Western state with American weapons shelling Beirut again - now you're going to see the Shi'a, Sunni, Druze or Moronite drop their differences in the light of Israeli presence (redux), thus ruining any progress we have made there.

You guys speak of "wiping Hezbollah out" as if it was a matter of driving a Merkava to Beirut and knocking on the office door.  This is a mass movement of over a million people.  Pick up the history books for a second gentlemen - look at what went down in Lebanon from 1982-2000, when Israel pulled out after 2000 dead, essentially losing a war of attrition with Hezbollah (casualty ratios would go from 6:1 to nearly 1:1 by the end; the Islamic guerrillas consistently got better).  And now, we have an even stronger Hezbollah, one equipped and prepared to an extent that even Israel and the US were unaware of.  Big time tactical underestimation here - this is the same reason we in the West are so f**ked up in Iraq right now - "Oh golly, we'll role in with our Information Age weapons and overload their network nodes!".

Furthermore, the level that a regional conflagration could descend to is not a particularly appealing one.  We have went from what should have been the task of chasing some asshole Salafi radicals through the mountains of Afghanistan to this, now having Iran firmly ready to join the fray.  Iran is a factor we don't even want to consider when you see how stretched we are in Afghanistan and Iraq.

So, to expound on my "+1" to Teddy's earlier comment and to support the logic of the original article, this is a FRIGGEN DISASTER.  A major regional contingency does us no favours.  These guys are getting exactly what they wanted - major retaliation by the Jewish state in order to further hinder Western strategy and support in the region and enhance the goals of the Islamic Insurgency.  A Shi'a state that was at one point in the hands of moderates (ie: in Al Qa'ida's apostate column) is now led by a firebreather and is ready to get right into the middle of things.  The capabilities of Iran far outweigh anything we've seen to date; they have the capability to turn our whole Southwest Asia adventure into a huge shitshow.  Add to this the specter of a nuclear weapons exchange, and it really gets scary.

This seems to be exactly what Al Qa'ida was hoping for 5 years ago.  We seem to be doing just as Sheuer warned and playing into their hands.  Initiative is a key here, and we're going to lose more of it.

Infanteer

PS:  Don't give me the "Hezbollah" supporters crap and the "we do less damage then them" line.  We all know what MLRS, 155mm guns, and 1000 lb bombs do.  Does the fact that we state that we will avoid civilian casualties make a dead Lebanese child any less than a dead Israeli one?  The lethality of the technology we in the West possess will ensure that we will always inflict more civilian casualties then a lesser equipped foe.  Do these look like Hezbollah to you?

 

[GAP]

For the eager fellows in these parts, stop to think for a moment.

What you said make good sense, which leads to the question of what to do. You cannot NOT respond, nor can you OVER respond.

Essentially, what I get from your points, is the Israel should have continued playing the balancing game. Should we continue to do that until the next generation? There's a lot of manipulation in the background, and it's only going to get worse, not better.

BTW, I don't pretend to have an answer....the above was a question.

 

[Infanteer]

What you said make good sense, which leads to the question of what to do. You cannot NOT respond, nor can you OVER respond.

Essentially, what I get from your points, is the Israel should have continued playing the balancing game. Should we continue to do that until the next generation? There's a lot of manipulation in the background, and it's only going to get worse, not better.

BTW, I don't pretend to have an answer....the above was a question.

I don't pretend to have the answer either - I only posted the above as a counterpoint to the "RA-RA, drive over the muthf***ka's" posts that really don't seem to consider many of the important facts.

To me, I would think that steps on the grand-strategic level essential to achieving a suitable outcome would include:

-  Acknowledging the fact the Middle East isn't going to become an extention of the western liberal democracy anytime soon; probably not even in the next few decades.  Trying to make it so one the end of the bayonet is only going to lead to more problems - the neo-Cons like Wolfowitz in the current US administration have been forced to eat their socks over Iraq, which they stated would be easy and which would embrace liberation and US help.  That's what you get when you let ideology and the wrong friends (Chilabi) guide your policy.  Looks like Colin Powell with the clay pot analogy was on target.  (Hopefully, that fact is being recognized now.)

-  Acknowledge that Iran, whether we like them or not, is going to be a player in any resolution.  They are the key to the area, and direct confrontation isn't going to help.  Sure, it's like playing cards with the devil, but you got to play with the hand your dealt.  Were better off buying them off then putting another pile of shit on our plate.  Remember that famous story of Churchill (master card player that he was) and the Soviets swapping napkins with percentages on them?

-  Acknowledge that Israel/Palestine is pretty much the root to much of the conflict in the area and that having Israel "go off the rez" (as Kat put it) hurts our goals and our policies.

 

[chanman]

What you said make good sense, which leads to the question of what to do. You cannot NOT respond, nor can you OVER respond.

Essentially, what I get from your points, is the Israel should have continued playing the balancing game. Should we continue to do that until the next generation? There's a lot of manipulation in the background, and it's only going to get worse, not better.

BTW, I don't pretend to have an answer....the above was a question.

If Hezbollah was trying to provoke an Israeli over-response, they couldn't have picked a better time.  With the size of the Israeli response to the capture of one soldier by the Palestinians, they couldn't play a softer approach without appearing to either be disproportionately harsh on Hamas, or disproportionately soft on Hezbollah.  I think in this set of circumstances, either way, Hezbollah's backers come out ahead, and either way, Israel would have come out behind in this set of events.  :-\

 

[GAP]

Well, already, Israel has opened with the gambit of being willing to abide by a ceasefire if certain conditions are met. All the powers about, will rush in and it will be a whole bunch of to-ing and fro-ing until Israel has achieved it objectives. I am assuming that it is a spanking (going on now) and the creation of a buffer. Then, I guess, it's back to trying to wait them out.

Iran, is not going to be so easy to solve. The ruling parties in Iran have successfully turned their populations disillusionment of about a year ago, into anger, etc. against first the West (re: nuclear weapons) and now this. You don't hear much from the reformers in Iran anymore do you?

 

[teltech]

To quote my favorite book of all time:"doesn't matter whether it's a thousand — or just one, sir. You fight"
Johnny Rico to Lt-Col Dubois.

Close - Actually it was to a Maj. Reid, but we get your drift. (Just happened to be reading it right now)

 

[paracowboy]

I don't see this as a disaster at all. It's merely another step in the Reformation.

We aren't trying to win militarily, neither us, nor the Israelis. We're trying to apply pressure on the Middle Age nations, in order that they be forced, by their own populaces, to change. The Israelis are just trying to buy some more time and space, and force Hizbollah to back off a bit, while making the Lebanese people realize that supporting Hizbollah blindly has terrible consequences.

Nothing we do will change minds or win hearts in the Middle East. You, with the amount of reading on the area should know that better than anyone else. There is absolutely nothing we can do or say that will have any positive impact on the Muslim mindset in Araby. What we can, and must, do is continue to cause the intellectual ferment that will result in democratic changes. And that includes bitch-slappin' when required.

Go Israel. Rah-rah!

 

[GAP]

And that includes bitch-slappin' when required.

So this is just a cosmic bitch-slap.  Works for me  8)

 

[tomahawk6]

Israel struck a bunker thought to be the hideout of the Hizbollah leadership with 23 tons of ordinance. The target is just a big hole in the ground Hizbollah said the target was a mosque under construction. However, none of Hizbollah's leadership have made a statement to the media. 8)

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1153291951954

 

[GAP]

Israel struck a bunker thought to be the hideout of the Hezbollah leadership with 23 tons of ordinance. The target is just a big hole in the ground Hezbollah said the target was a mosque under construction. However, none of Hezbollah's leadership have made a statement to the media. 8)

Well, that's easy to prove. When they do get around to making their statements, they should have this golden aura surrounding them.

BTW...CBC is going on about 27 people killed today and that 1 was a Hezbollah guerrilla

 

[tomahawk6]

Wow the Izzies finally killed a tango must have been by accident. ;D

 

[tomahawk6]

In a more serious vein the Israelis are intercepting missile shipments from Syria and destroying them.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3278029,00.html

 

[GAP]

On CTV, they just announced that Israel has offered to let people in southern Lebanon exit via a northern Israeli port.

 

[jollyjacktar]

Very good points Infanteer.  There should have been a measured response by Israel.  I fear they will in the long run be a better recruiting center for the opposition than they will bargain for.  Just as during the Blitz, and later in Germany stomping the shit out of mostly non-combatants only served to strengthen the resolve to resist their enemy.  This is going to be seen by the Islamic people of another example of Israel being actively suppported by the West in particular the USA.  Like it or not.  From their POV right or wrong, it will again be case of Israel being allowed to take liberties on neighbouring states without any form or censure.

Sure they have a right to self defense.  You too have rights in defense of your home and health, but you are restricted to reasonable force only.  Once you go beyond that you are liable to have the cuff slapped on you instead.  I have a background in Law Enforcement.  If this was a citizen subduing a criminal breaking into his dwelling, or defending himself in say a bar fight.  I would be giving serious consideration and futher investigation into the possibility of laying charges of excessive force against the original victim.

 

[Infanteer]

I don't see this as a disaster at all. It's merely another step in the Reformation.

What reformation - I'm watching news footage of some pissed off Maronite who is angry that Israel has now targeted targets in the Christian area of Beirut along with a mother stating she will send her children to fight Israel.  What progress was made with Lebanon's political progress will be undermined with this action.  I saw it best described as acting tactical with a complete lack for any strategic thought.

Was 1982 and Operation Peace for Galilee also merely another step in the Reformation (since it led to the creation of Hizbollah and the subsequent Palestinian Intifada's in the first place)?

Nothing we do will change minds or win hearts in the Middle East. You, with the amount of reading on the area should know that better than anyone else. There is absolutely nothing we can do or say that will have any positive impact on the Muslim mindset in Araby.

Well, I guess we've already lost if we're going to admit that.  What reading I've done has convinced me that nobody is innocent in this affair. 

What we can, and must, do is continue to cause the intellectual ferment that will result in democratic changes. And that includes bitch-slappin' when required.

Cause intellectual ferment?  You just said that we cannot change their hearts and minds, so what is it?

I remain suspect of the notion that democracy is the key to this conflict.  We managed to inherit a stable democracy that evolved from about a century's worth of political evolution.  How democracy is supposed to take root inlight of the forces of history at work here is beyond me, especially when we encourage it with a "bitch slapping".

People tend to view democracy with suspicion when the other democracy in the area has just destroyed their house with a 2000 lb bomb.

 

[tomahawk6]

I would take the comments seen on TV with a big grain of salt. If you notice the arab governments have been very muted in their response to the Israeli-Hizbollah conflict. The fact is they are concerned by Iran and its proxy terror groups and have decided that its in their interest for Israel to crush Hizbollah.

 

[paracowboy]

Was 1982 and Operation Peace for Galilee also merely another step in the Reformation (since it led to the creation of Hizbollah and the subsequent Palestinian Intifada's in the first place)?

entirely different, and you know it. The entire world shifted in 2001.

Well, I guess we've already lost if we're going to admit that.  What reading I've done has convinced me that nobody is innocent in this affair.

nobody is. But we all know who the bad guys are, and we all know how to deal with bad guys.

Cause intellectual ferment?  You just said that we cannot change their hearts and minds, so what is it?

there's no contradiction there, don't try to creat one. We can't change their minds, we can't tell them what to think, but we can create circumstances that lead them to think. 

I remain suspect of the notion that democracy is the key to this conflict. 

democracy is the key to ending all conflict. It's just gonna take a very long time. Which is fine, since it's job security for me.


hmm... "quote" button, "bold" button, you'd think I could recognize the difference.

 

[Remius]

Paracowboy brings up an interesting point. We can't change their minds, we can't tell them what to think, but we can create circumstances that lead them to think. 

I believe this phrase to be the way to go.  Now, I don't think that democracy is the be all end all to solving the problem.  Nor do I think Paracowboy is implying that either.  Real democracy is a just one of the circumstances needed.

 

[paracowboy]

  Real democracy is a just one of the circumstances needed.

precisely. As democratic reforms started to work their way through the feudal system of Europe, so did secularism, and quickly upon it's heels followed leaps in science, philosophy, art, exploration. And over-shadowing it all was the threat from the economic/military powerhouse of Islam.

Now, the situation is reversed.

Since 2003, we've seen Syria lay off it's own population and pull out of Lebanon, Ghaddafi found God, Egypt has opened up it's electoral system (unwillingly), Kuwait has elected women to it's parliament, Afghanistan and Iraq have held elections, Yemen and Algeria have clamped down on militants, Saudi Arabia has tightened down on Wahhabism, Iran is facing another revolution and is terrified of it, Islamic terrorists in the Phillipines are on the defensive instead of attacking at whim, Thailand has squashed Islamic fundamentalism, Europe has woken up to the viper in it's bosom, Pakistan has taken steps to crush the insurgency in 3 of it's territories and made peace with India, etc.

Why? Because pressure is being applied for the first time in centuries. It's causing the people in those nations to think for themselves, and once they start doing that, they start demanding a voice, demanding power, and voila! Representative, secular government which requires the will of the people to remain in power, and so does what is in the best interest of the majority, which always means peaceful solutions.

Another 6, maybe 9 centuries,and we should have worked ourselves out of a job.