Discussion on Israeli Strategy

[jollyjacktar]

Well hello yourself Chanman.  I do prefer a Canadian site, and find this more to my liking.  I honestly have not gone back to the other once I came here.

 

[Brad Sallows]

>Now those of you who doubt the need for Israel to continue its present course need to remember,

I doubt the utility of Israel continuing its present course unless it intends to make a serious effort to remove Hezbollah from Lebanon.

 

[GAP]

>Now those of you who doubt the need for Israel to continue its present course need to remember,

I doubt the utility of Israel continuing its present course unless it intends to make a serious effort to remove Hezbollah from Lebanon.

I understand what you are saying, but to achieve it requires Isreal to occupy approx 20 km of southern Lebanon.

 

[paracowboy]

I concur.
But doing a lot better then them is not exactly something to be proud of...
Just like having 100 people killed in a terrorist attack is nothing to look down on, or belittle compared to 9/11.

you missed my point entirely. The Israelis are whacking civilians as collateral damage. Their enemies do it AS POLICY.

I fervently hope the Israelis burn Hezbollah and HAMAS out. Destroy them as completely as they can.

 

[tomahawk6]

I have not read about a single Hezbollah member being killed in the air strikes. Yet the media trumpets all the civilian dead. My guess is that most of the dead are Hezbollah followers. The US released info on the 25,000 US "nationals" in Lebanon and many are Hezbollah sympathizers.

 

[Bill Smy]

A couple of points:--

The deliberate targeting of civilian targets (whether the terrorists are hiding there or not) is a war crime. No matter how the arguments are put.

One thing that the last 50 years of history in this struggle demonstrates is that military action (by either side) will not resolve this conflict.

 

[GO!!!]

I have not read about a single Hezbollah member being killed in the air strikes. Yet the media trumpets all the civilian dead. My guess is that most of the dead are Hezbollah followers. The US released info on the 25,000 US "nationals" in Lebanon and many are Hezbollah sympathizers.

Canada has 50,000 passport holders (I use the term "citizen sparingly" - but that is another thread) in Lebanon right now. All of the ones who have troubled themselves to speak to the media uniformly condemn Israel's "aggression".

Funny how all of these "citizens" crawl out of the woodwork when the $hit hits the fan, or they need medical care. Methinks we are a bit too loose with the passports.

Israel is acting with restraint - they have not stooped to the level of the current Lebanese administration, which by allowing Hezbollah to exist as a political entity and gain 23 seats in their national party, have in fact validated it's activites; namely the bombing of markets, malls and bars in Israel.

To the suffering people of Lebanon - you reap what you sow - you elected Hezbollah - they acted as they always have. Lay your blame where it lies - your choices at the ballot box. You chose this war with Israel at election time.

 

[chanman]

To the suffering people of Lebanon - you reap what you sow - you elected Hezbollah - they acted as they always have. Lay your blame where it lies - your choices at the ballot box. You chose this war with Israel at election time.

Wouldn't that also imply that all of the Lebanese who voted against Hezbollahare on the receiving end of something they didn't sow?

Anyway, it looks as though if Hezbollah isn't wiped out this time around, the post-conflict Lebanese government will be even less able to tackle Hezbollah after this than before with the damage done to the economy and infrastructure.

An obervation and some speculation from a currently subscriber-only Economist article

The Lebanese, unlike the Palestinians, can at least clearly blame Hizbullah for lighting the fuse after several years of relative calm. But Israel is treading a fine line between alienating the Lebanese from Hizbullah and uniting them against their outside aggressor. And if Israel cannot achieve a decisive victory against Hizbullah with air power, and has to add ground forces, it risks getting bogged down in southern Lebanon once again.

On the other hand, the timing of Hizbullah’s kidnap may have been designed precisely to trigger an Israeli backlash: having gone in so heavy in Gaza in response to the first kidnapping, Israel could hardly stand by and watch as two more soldiers disappeared. Many suspect Hizbullah wants to drag Israel into a war on two fronts, perhaps with the backing of Syria and Iran. These two countries provide financial and material help to both Hamas and Hizbullah and they benefit from chaos and instability in the region. If the fighting prompts not Hizbullah’s capitulation but a breakdown in the fragile balance of power in Lebanon, triggering another of the country’s periodic civil wars, the conflict could spread wider.

 

[bilton090]

        Anyway, it looks as though if Hezbollah isn't wiped out this time around, the post-conflict Lebanese government will be even less able to tackle Hezbollah after this than before with the damage done to the economy and infrastructure.

        WTF,  The Lebanese government hasn't done a thing for 20 yrs + about the Hezbollah, they are part of the government of that country, so the hole place is going to pay. The 50 000 or so Canada pastport holders saying the Hezbollah are there protectors, if we can't be live some of these people here in Canada, what to say this crap
there saying, about poor Innocent people ( that cheer the bombing on the other side of the border )
                LIVE BY THE SWORD, DIE BY THE SWORD !           :evil:

        Israel needs to wipe out this cancer of the Hezbollah,& Hamas !
   
      P.S-  Innocent people in the middle east 

 

[Koenigsegg]

OK, Paracowboy.  In that case I concur twice...once for what I thought you meant, and once for what you really meant.

 

[chanman]

        WTF,  The Lebanese government hasn't done a thing for 20 yrs + about the Hezbollah

It hasn't even been 20 years since the normally accepted end-date for their civil war (1975-1990 or 1975-1991 depending on the source)

 

[paracowboy]

It hasn't even been 20 years since the normally accepted end-date for their civil war (1975-1990 or 1975-1991 depending on the source)

well, that doesn't invalidate the statement, though does it? Still holds true. ;D

 

[GO!!!]

It hasn't even been 20 years since the normally accepted end-date for their civil war (1975-1990 or 1975-1991 depending on the source)

True, but there was a Lebanese authority in Lebanon when it was occupied by Syria - and they did'nt do anything about Hezbollah either. At best they were ineffective, at worst, complicit. 

 

[chanman]

True, but there was a Lebanese authority in Lebanon when it was occupied by Syria - and they did'nt do anything about Hezbollah either. At best they were ineffective, at worst, complicit. 

I thought that we've already established that Syria is one of Hezbollah's supporters along with Iran.

Anyway, my comments on the Lebanese gov't has to do with the Israeli conditions for a ceasefire.

On Tuesday, Livni said a ceasefire could happen if the two Israeli soldiers are released, Lebanese troops are deployed along the border and with a guarantee that the Hezbollah militia would be disarmed.

(from http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2006/07/18/lebanese-soldiers.html

Those second and third conditions seem like they would be harder to achieve if they weaken the Lebanese government (or at least the non-Hezbollah portions of it as someone will be bound to suggest).  If anything, wouldn't they need a stronger government in power in Lebanon to be able to impose or forcibly disarm the Hezbolla militia?

 

[GO!!!]

Those second and third conditions seem like they would be harder to achieve if they weaken the Lebanese government (or at least the non-Hezbollah portions of it as someone will be bound to suggest).  If anything, wouldn't they need a stronger government in power in Lebanon to be able to impose or forcibly disarm the Hezbolla militia?

Yes - one with Merkavas.  >

 

[bcbarman]

My real concern here is the battle for public opinion that is being played in Europe and North America.  Israel is the only "home" of the Jewish nation. There are a lot of very powerful people around the world, some that control massive empires, that are Jewish.  No matter what happens in the middle east, Israel will be seen as the "good" guys.  I am not anti-Semite in the least, but it will only take one major attack against Israel, such as a significant force to roll over the border (larger than a battle group) from either front to cause a huge backlash that will prompt every Jewish business, lobby group or political aide to raise hell at the respective European or North American government to come to Israel's aid.  

My question is will Hamas or Hezbollah take that step? If yes, they are the new Iraq. The US and EU are going to go in and pacify.  If you thought that Iraq was not thought out thoroughly, at least the US knew for about 8 months that they were going in.

It will not be a 7 day war, but what will be the next step in this.  There is a lot of escalation potential. I do not see a world war happening, but go buy some stocks in the Oilsands.

I do not see this one fizzle out.  Israel has been ready for this since the end of the Yom Kippur war, they want a fight, and this nation is better prepared for a fight then anyone.

 

[vonGarvin]

Israel has been ready for this since the end of the Yom Kippur war, they want a fight, and this nation is better prepared for a fight then anyone.

I doubt that they want a fight.  Nobody wants a fight.  Are they prepared?  The answer is in the proof that in spite of all the rhetoric, Syria, Jordan and all other nations surrounding Israel are doing nothing about this (militarily)

 

[Shadowolf]

Once Israel has finished its smash and bash in Lebanon and Gaza (and hopefully brings its boys home), I figure the islamic people in the area will be too busy and broke trying to rebuild, and therefore unable to 'donate' to the good cause of Hamas and Hezbollah.  The average citizen might also be a little more willing to make an anonymous phone call to the authorities if they overhear their neighbors talking about bombs/weapons/terrorist acts, and a little less supportive.  Its all well and good to chant and cheer when you hear about some jews killed in a suicide bombing, but when such information is followed up by a personal visit from the IDF, its a different story.

A slight secondary effect of this might be a drop in foreign fighters in Iraq as they go back to defend home territory, and fight Israel as opposed to the US.

 

[acclenticularis]

I find it interesting to note that Hezbollah decided to act when they did.  They saw the reaction of Israel to Hamas murdering soldiers and abducting another.  They must have known full well what Israel would do if Hezbollah conducted the same operation as Hamas.  Therefore, Israel is likely behaving exactly as Hezbollah expects.  So, what is Hezbollah's aim?  

I don't know how Israel can completely destroy Hezbollah, when it's leadership does not exist in Lebanon and the more Israel pushes, the more there would be volunteers to fill the void left by Hezbollah members killed.  As Lebanon's fragile infrastructure and elements of commerce continue to get destroyed, it gets less and less likely that they would be able to get rid of Hezbollah soon, even if they wanted to.  And, unfortunately I am a bit ignorant of some facts here, but, with Syria holding much political sway in Lebanon up until very recently, how is it that one could expect those in the Lebanese government to even begin to successfully tackle the eradication of Hezbollah from Lebanon?  Assuming they wanted to of course.

I know that Israel is not the darling of the middle eastern world, but, these actions are likely to further stoke the anger of the muslim world against Israel (and against the west by continuing to not intervene).  Would it not push back the peace process ever farther?  I agree that if I had neighbours that were committed to the destruction of my state and murdered scores of my people on an ongoing basis, there would be temptation to just lash out.  And having never been in the situation, I cannot say what I would do.  But, is there a viable long term plan here?  However, having said the above, I believe that the middle east Israeli/muslim problem is a lot more complicated than I understand, despite the temptation to quick judgments and opinions.  And I also wonder at what we don't know that goes on beyond our scope that might sway our opinions.

Just my two cents.

 

[bcbarman]

Von Garvin, you are right, nobody wants a fight, but when you get pushed too far, you fight back.

To quote my favorite book of all time:"doesn't matter whether it's a thousand — or just one, sir. You fight"
Johnny Rico to Lt-Col Dubois.

IM me if you do not know the book