For the record,
here's how the info-machine says it can unfold (archived link
here - text also attached in case neither link works)
...
Preparation Phase: The initial Preparation Phase commenced shortly after the NATO Leaders Summit in Madrid in June 2022 and much progress has already been made.
- Canada hosted the inaugural Multinational enhanced Forward Presence Brigade Force Sensing Conference in October 2022, which will be followed by regular forthcoming iterations;
- An important initial step for Brigade development, Canada formally affiliated its land-based NATO Response Forces to Latvia;
- To enable this affiliation, the Canadian Army has realigned its Managed Readiness Plan to assign a single Canadian Mechanized Brigade Group to support deterrence and defence in Latvia, including through forward-deployed forces and Canada-based reinforcements;
- In addition to the previously announced Urgent Operational Requirement procurements for the enhanced Forward Presence Battle Group, which included Portable Anti-X Missile systems, Counter Uncrewed Aircraft Systems, and Air Defence Systems, Canada will continue to invest in capabilities and infrastructure to support the Brigade, including increasing forward-deployed equipment and materiel within Latvia;
- In January 2023, Canada deployed the Forward Command Element to Latvia to prepare for integration of a Canadian-led Brigade Headquarters into Multinational Division – North and the future arrival of Brigade capabilities and troops;
- Latvia has adopted a law regarding the development of the new military training area “Selonia”, 25 000 hectares in size. Latvia has allocated EUR 38 million of national financing for the first phase of the development of “Selonia”;
- Latvia has allocated financing for the procurement of medium-range air defence systems, rocket artillery systems, and costal defence systems; and
- Latvia has introduced conscription in order to increase the fighting force of the Latvian National Armed Forces (LNAF).
Build Phase: Canada and Allies will flow the bulk of the Brigade’s forces and equipment into Latvia. As the transition to the Build Phase occurs, Brigade build-up and infrastructure development will need to be aligned.
- The enhanced Forward Presence Brigade will begin reporting directly to the Multinational Division Headquarters – North;
- Canada will bolster its presence in Latvia by deploying a Canadian Army Tank Squadron of 15 Leopard 2 battle tanks and personnel by the end of 2023;
- In Fall 2024, the enhanced Forward Presence Brigade will conduct its first Brigade exercise and NATO Combat Readiness Evaluation;
- The enhanced Forward Presence Battle Group will transition from the Latvian Mechanized Infantry Brigade to the Canada-led enhanced Forward Presence Brigade;
- Brigade build-up aims to be completed in 2025 with a significant increase in Canadian and multinational Armed Forces soldiers persistently deployed on the ground in Latvia, with additional forces assigned to reinforce Latvia at high readiness from their home country;
- In Fall 2025, Latvia will finalize construction of the first phase of “Selonia”, including a life support area and shooting ranges, thus providing initial opportunities for military training and exercises in the area. Meanwhile, current and additional new infrastructure will be available to facilitate build-up of the enhanced Forward Presence Brigade;
- Medium-range air defence systems and coastal defence systems will enter service in LNAF, thus reinforcing enabling capabilities;
- Conscription system is stabilized and LNAF experiences steady flow of personnel into units; and
- Latvia, as one of the Multinational Division – North Headquarters Framework Nations, will develop a plan concerning further development of Multinational Division – North.
Steady State Phase: The Steady State Phase will see the Canada-led multinational enhanced Forward Presence Brigade in Latvia to consist of a mix of a significant proportion of forward deployed forces, with stocks and equipment prepositioned for the use of rapidly deployable surge forces readied on standby in Canada and across Allied contributing nations. The goal of this phase will be to maintain readiness and demonstrate the Brigade’s capability in order to deter, and if necessary, defend against potential aggression.
- By 2026, Canada will complete the full implementation of persistently deployed Brigade capabilities to Latvia;
- The enhanced Forward Presence Brigade will deploy and exercise episodically to maintain readiness and demonstrate the Brigade’s capability;
- Rocket artillery systems will enter service in LNAF boosting enabling capabilities;
- Canada will have up to 2 200 persistently deployed Canadian Armed Forces members as part of the enhanced Forward Presence and supporting elements in Latvia, and will be prepared to deploy hundreds more as needed;
- Latvia will gradually increase capacity of military training area “Selonia” to accommodate Brigade-level exercises; and
- Latvia, as one of the Multinational Division – North Headquarters Framework Nations, will lead the development of Multinational Division – North as a fully resourced and enabled warfighting division.
First Read -
The key enablers will be supplied by Latvia - Medium Range Air Defence and Long Range Precision Fires including Coastal Defence.
I think that reduces any imperatives for Canada to contribute any of those capabilities. A couple less jobs for 4th Artillery Regiment (General Support) to worry about?
Canada will contribute up to 2200 troops persistently as part of the Danish led Multi-National Division - North, co-operating with Latvians, Danes and Estonians and supported by Brits.
The troops on the ground will be urgently equipped with an existing Squadron (-) from the LdSH and will be supplied with new purchase
Portable Anti-X Missile systems, Counter Uncrewed Aircraft Systems, and Air Defence Systems
Presumably the PAXM systems are something like the Javelins or Spikes, or perhaps a larger family of solutions and will be issued to existing troops to enhance their existing armoury with a small training delta.
The CUAS and ADS systems I am guessing are going to the newly re-stood up AD Bty in the 4th (GS) Regiment. Which means something like the MSHORADs and/or MADIS and/or ManPADs for that Battery, co-operating with the MRRs already in service.
Taking that all together suggests to me that the Canadian Army is not looking at a Division in its aspirational future, but will continue to look at supplying up to a small Brigade Group whose heaviest weapons are the Leopards and the LAVs and 155mm guns. Conceivably the M777s might be replaced by something like RCH or the Archer or the CESARs. And that is likely to be the Tip of the Spear formation for the Canadian Army.
As part of the Danish led Multinational Division - North it will be subordinate to JFC-Brunsum in the NATO command structure.
Multinational Division North
On 8th of March in Adazi, Latvia, Danish, Estonian and Latvian Defence Ministers officially opened Headquarters Multinational Division North (MND N). This new unit is first of its kind in the northern part of the Baltic Sea region and will further enhance safety, security and NATO’s defence capabilities.The main element of the Danish-led headquarters is located in Adazi with a smaller cell present in Karup/Slagelse, Denmark.
Framework Nations of MND N are respectively Denmark, Latvia and Estonia.
en.wikipedia.org
But Denmark, Latvia and Estonia are all also charter members of the British led Joint Expeditionary Force which, when created, included all the Baltic and Scandinavian NATO members as well as the then non-NATO members of Sweden and Finland.
That left JEF straddling the borders of NATO. Fortunately for all concerned Finland and, hopefully, Sweden are both now within NATO so JEF's position is not so anomalous or politically challenging. But it still constitutes an active block within the NATO structure that is politically active. How much independence of action it retains will be interesting.
JEF
Denmark is part of the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force along with nine other European countries.
What is the JEF?
The JEF is a UK-led coalition of like-minded nations (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden), comprising high readiness forces configured to respond rapidly to crises in the High North and Northern Europe. It can integrate into larger international operations such as those led by NATO, the UN, or other security coalition and can conduct the full spectrum of operations. It enhances the deterrence messaging of NATO and provides agile, credible, and capable forces in support of JEF Participant Nation interests. The JEF is not a standing force and will draw on Participant Nation forces across all five Domains when conducting activity.
The JEF Framework
The JEF is designed as a multinational force, with NATO standards and doctrine as its baseline. At its core, the JEF can operate as a scalable force package that presents itself as a persistent competitor to any adversary. To contribute to this deterrence, the JEF must be capable and credible, and demonstrate and communicate intent. Preference will always be to cooperate with Participant Nations, who can provide additional force elements, intelligence, and capabilities depending on the type of activity, operation or training being conducted.
Opportunities for Further Integration
As well as operational utility, a key strength to the JEF is the close relationship between all JEF nations. The JEF provides focus for developing greater interoperability between JEF members using NATO protocols, including tactical integration between units across Participant Nations. It also provides a community to drive innovation and experimentation, whilst seeking opportunities to support developing concepts through NATO-founded doctrine.
Last updated December 13, 2022 - 11:56
So with Canada in NATO but also in NORAD it is subordinate to US command structures in both NORAD and NATO but in the NATO context it will be operating in a JEF environment and JEF has demonstrated some tendencies towards independence of thought and action and showing initiative.
JEF is focused on the Arctic and Finland, Sweden, Norway and Iceland are all members of the Arctic Council. Russia owns one half of the Arctic but has been removed from the Arctic Council.
That leaves Finland, Sweden, Norway and Iceland:
all members of the Nordic Defence Co-Operation
together with Denmark which commands the MND-N that Canada's Latvian Brigade reports to
all members of JEF,
together with Britain and the Netherlands with their navies and marines regularly exercising in the Arctic with the Royals establishing a permanent base in Norway
And the US:
Refurbishing NORAD
Pushing Air Missile Defense
Standing up the 11th Abn Division for Arctic Operations
And Canada......
Wait Out?