2025 Federal Election - 28 Apr 25

[CBH99]

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[Jarnhamar]

Looks like Carney is playing safe and burying his head in the sand on this one.
Not very brave of our Prime Minister but it will be effective with his base.

Poilievre says Liberal MP must be disqualified as candidate following China bounty comments​

 

[brihard]

This may and probably will require a splitting of the CPC back into the PC and Reform, or you'll just get more flip flopping like we saw with O'Tool having to please the latter. I do like Chong though.

Chong is interesting- solid Progressive Conservative pedigree, plenty of experience. He’d be a compelling closer-to-center leadership candidate. He’s vulnerable on Quebec though, after resigning from cabinet over the ‘distinct nation’ vote in 2006. Still, that’s quite a ways behind, and his principled stances on other matters would hopefully make up some ground. He would be appealing to centrist swing voters, and he’s mature and steady.

 

[MilEME09]

Affordability is a big concern for Canadians so if he loses that message, that can lose him a lot of votes

Polls suggest Poilievre is losing edge on affordability

It wasn't too long ago that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre shot to the top of the polls promising to make life more affordable for...

nationalpost.com

 

[brihard]

Affordability is a big concern for Canadians so if he loses that message, that can lose him a lot of votes

Polls suggest Poilievre is losing edge on affordability

It wasn't too long ago that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre shot to the top of the polls promising to make life more affordable for...

nationalpost.com

Affordability should be his vital ground. If he loses that issue he’s done. There’s no issue in his repertoire more compelling than that.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

One week in and people are tossing around replacing PP.
Oh yea of little faith.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Chong is interesting- solid Progressive Conservative pedigree, plenty of experience. He’d be a compelling closer-to-center leadership candidate. He’s vulnerable on Quebec though, after resigning from cabinet over the ‘distinct nation’ vote in 2006. Still, that’s quite a ways behind, and his principled stances on other matters would hopefully make up some ground. He would be appealing to centrist swing voters, and he’s mature and steady.

Spot on

 

[Czech_pivo]

One week in and people are tossing around replacing PP.
Oh yea of little faith.

I never voted for him and thought he was a total mistake. ‘Abandoning him’ is an easy choice for me.

 

[Remius]

One week in and people are tossing around replacing PP.
Oh yea of little faith.

Not the best week for PP.

Hypotheticals in politics are still interesting.

 

[MilEME09]

One week in and people are tossing around replacing PP.
Oh yea of little faith.

Thr calls to replace him in a campaign are just dumb, getting rid of Jenni though is perfectly sensible as her tactics aren't working

 

[brihard]

One week in and people are tossing around replacing PP.
Oh yea of little faith.

Shrug The talk is of hypothetically replacing him after a hypothetical loss, because we’re sitting here on an otherwise boring Sunday without much of particular interest going on. Speaking for myself, it’s not like I’ve ever had faith in him anyway- he just hasn’t succeeded in exceeding my relatively low expectations.

As I have said and will keep saying- campaigns matter, the debates matter. Four weeks isn’t as long a time as five, but it’s still a long time. While I would no longer say a Conservative majority is in the cards, they could certainly still win a plurality and have the opportunity to form government and demonstrate confidence in the House.

 

[Remius]

Speaking of quiet Sundays.

338Canada Canada | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

338canada.com

LPC up again. And projected seats at 192.

 

[Jarnhamar]

he just hasn’t succeeded in exceeding my relatively low expectations.

He's kept his nose relatively clean for 25 years in politics. That's not too bad.

 

[Remius]

Poilievre will retain his seat handily, but if he hypothetically loses the election I cannot see him staying leader; pissing this one away will basically mean political disgrace and will rock the internal party factions. The CPC will see the need to pick someone more mature and more centrist to contest a Carney government in a few more years. I’m not sure what a post-leadership Poilievre would look like; he’s only ever really worked politics, he doesn’t have a profession to fall back on, his education is quite modest, botching an election as thoroughly as this one wouldn’t necessarily make him a compelling political consultant, and I’m not sure how his ego would handle failure and relegation from leadership. The House of Commons is sort of all he’s got without taking a big step backwards. He really needs to win this. And a few Byrne-type Conservative power brokers need him to win too.

Maybe a post career in provincial politics. Say if Smith gets tossed. Maybe go and be premier. Not his life long dream of PM though but better than backbenching in opposition or sitting at home letting his real estate holdings make him money.

 

[PuckChaser]

Affordability should be his vital ground. If he loses that issue he’s done. There’s no issue in his repertoire more compelling than that.

Canadians are stupid if they're buying that the LPC, after 10 years of absolutely trashing affordability, are going to now all of a sudden do something about it. Carney has simply taken advantage of the free media coverage that drowned out any opposition statements.

 

[RangerRay]

This may and probably will require a splitting of the CPC back into the PC and Reform, or you'll just get more flip flopping like we saw with O'Tool having to please the latter. I do like Chong though.

That would be a recipe for never-ending Liberal majorities. Been there, done that, was issued the Militia Rounds.

I would argue that the Reform/PC division is non-existent now. The merger happened a long time ago.

What we are seeing is a CPC/PPC dynamic. The PPC may have cost the CPC a few seats last time, but they did not come even close to the success that Reform had. Poilievre decided to try to eat their lunch, which completely decimated the PPC. Now, that’s not looking like a good play.

 

[MilEME09]

Canadians are stupid if they're buying that the LPC, after 10 years of absolutely trashing affordability, are going to now all of a sudden do something about it. Carney has simply taken advantage of the free media coverage that drowned out any opposition statements.

This is the common attack line yes, yes what Carney has done, and says he will do points towards a quick shift to the center as Carney reshapes the liberals. I have seen few indications that a Carney government would be similar to the Trudeau years

 

[Jarnhamar]

Canadians are stupid if they're buying that the LPC, after 10 years of absolutely trashing affordability, are going to now all of a sudden do something about it. Carney has simply taken advantage of the free media coverage that drowned out any opposition statements.p

It's sad what Canadians continue to convince themselves about.

Canada drops to 18th in 2025 World Happiness Report rank, among the 'largest losers'​

5th to 18th place since 2015. Good stuff.

 

[Jarnhamar]

I have seen few indications that a Carney government would be similar to the Trudeau years

Like bringing Mendicino and Fraser back?

Ignoring a MP supporting turning a Canadian over to the Chinese government (on canadian soil) a couple weeks after the story broke of 4 Canadians being executed in China? And after all the foreign interference bullshit were dealing with?

The convenient blind trust that prevents Canadians from seeing what assets he amassed ( and won't be able to discover until he's no longer PM)?

 

[brihard]

Canadians are stupid if they're buying that the LPC, after 10 years of absolutely trashing affordability, are going to now all of a sudden do something about it. Carney has simply taken advantage of the free media coverage that drowned out any opposition statements.

Shrug frankly I haven’t seen anyone put much forward that meaningfully addresses it.

Inflation has brought us here. We won’t see *de*flation, and the price of housing can only come down a bit before a lot of people scream. So affordability really means increasing earnings power and potential (childcare falls into this one, inasmuch as it helps return primary caregivers mostly women, to the workforce), getting wages increasing at a rate that exceeds inflation so our paychecks can buy more, and increasing how much of our paychecks we keep- though government has relatively limited capacity to reduce taxes. All of this will happen in the shadow of an unpredictable trade war and tariffs from our largest export destination.

Macroeconomics doesn’t make for sexy campaigning, but it’s what will drive policy going forward. Poilievre had Trudeau beat on credibility there, but Carney is a different challenger entirely.