2025 Federal Election - 28 Apr 25

[Remius]

I’ve always believed in giving credit where credit is due - and for me credit was due to AA. I believed that she did care and was trying to improve overall the CAF. The items that this MP is bringing forward very much was at the fore front of the agenda for JT and as the leader, he drove the boat.
Carney seems to have pivoted away from a fair number of those issues, at least by the composition of his cabinet and his language used in his of his speeches.
This MP’s actions again speaks to the extremely small ball, village mentality that seems entrenched in the CPC, along with a fair number of the other parties.

All Jenni Byrne did in that tweet was reinforce that the CPC will rule as political partisans.

 

[brihard]

This MP’s actions again speaks to the extremely small ball, village mentality that seems entrenched in the CPC, along with a fair number of the other parties.

Sorry, which MP? If you’re referring to Jennie Byrne, the one quote-tweeting O’Toole and also the one wearing the MAGA hat a bit farther upthread, she’s not an MP and has never held elected office. She’s a political consultant with a long CPC pedigree, and a very close - arguably the most influential - advisor to Poilievre.

Not sure she herself has been able to make the needed pivot here.

 

[MilEME09]

The CPC platform is available for everyone to read. PP has put out numerous content on what he’d do. If that’s not your jam then just say it. Say: “I’d rather have a repeat of the last 9 years.” Because that’s what you want. And that’s ok.

I’d rather see PP get a chance. But I’m not going to be upset with a Carney government. I think that will open doors that wouldn’t otherwise ever open.

Platform and policy are two different things, policy from their convention doesn't always become their election platform.

 

[brihard]

A bit of a niche election promise from Poilievre today: an 18 month capital gains tax deferral on capital gains that are reinvested within Canada. No specifics on the mechanics of it.

I can’t really tell who he’s targeting with this. It would make more sense were it announced as part of a suite of incentives to investment and reinvestment in Canada, but as a standalone it’s kinda weird.

Conservatives promise to defer tax on capital gains to domestic boost investment

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is promising to allow Canadians to defer capital gains tax if they reinvest those earnings in Canada.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[brihard]

Platform and policy are two different things, policy from their convention doesn't always become their election platform.

Yes, and that’s important. Just yesterday we were talking about that same document in the context of a policy declaration within it that would attack the CAF, Public Service, and RCMP pension plans and have them changed to Defined Contribution. If were to take that document as reflecting what they would seek to do in power, some alarm bells should be going off for serving CAF members.

Whether the CPC policy declaration should be taken at face value seems to vary according to preference of the reader on individual issues.

 

[Remius]

Yes, and that’s important. Just yesterday we were talking about that same document in the context of a policy declaration within it that would attack the CAF, Public Service, and RCMP pension plans and have them changed to Defined Contribution. If were to take that document as reflecting what they would seek to do in power, some alarm bells should be going off for serving CAF members.

Whether the CPC policy declaration should be taken at face value seems to vary according to preference of the reader on individual issues.

And the CPC leader has said he doesn’t have to follow his party’s policy declaration document either. So if someone wants to point to their document and say “it’s all there” and yet say “the leader won’t really do that because reasons” then it isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.

Right now all we have is that document and election points.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Now, is she advising a change of course & PP’s dragging his heels? Is she digging in and PP’s OK with it? I can’t tell, but there’s enough public grumbling by big Team Blue names that nobody’s listening to outsiders talking inward, so who knows?

When a campaign slips, there's always a mob of "party loyalists" who have been sidelined a bit who come forward to grind axes. Not all of them have productive advice to offer.

The CPC campaign must execute a change of direction, or at least shift its main tone. To continue my derisive analogy, Poilievre was leading the "kids' table" election between him, Trudeau, and Singh (all of whom belong there). Showing a higher degree of leadership wasn't a high bar. This is no longer that election. Singh has suffered more from the change-up than Poilievre, but the only good news for the CPC is that their slippage is much less. It's easy to identify advice that usefully addresses that weakness. Stop name-calling, stop obsessing over imagined "scandals" that most voters can't grasp. Set aside personal attacks entirely.

This election should be a conservative moment. While I don't think the Trump-induced "crisis" is as severe as some believe, by observation I suppose most people do so believe; thus, tolerance exists for changes not previously in most politicians' Overton windows. Most of the improvements are chapter-and-verse classical liberal / conservative / libertarian economic and fiscal practices (summation: free trade in every possible sense). The solutions involving carrying people and organizations through by paving gaps with infusions of public money are not, and will be somewhere between deleterious to ruinous in the long term.

 

[brihard]

And the CPC leader has said he doesn’t have to follow his party’s policy declaration document either. So if someone wants to point to their document and say “it’s all there” and yet say “the leader won’t really do that because reasons” then it isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.

Right now all we have is that document and election points.

Correct.

There is no fulsome election platform released, and nothing that can be pointed to as an answer to that. This can be said for both parties that are in contention, and with the change in LPC leadership from Trudeau to Carney, we can infer much less than we otherwise would by trying to extrapolate form things like the fall economic statement (I know, lol) or other LPC trajectory pre-resignation.

It’s definitely getting to be about time for both parties to table something comprehensive.

 

[MilEME09]

I'd give it about a week and a half, if the CPC can't start regaining momentum and change course. Then I don't think they can regain in in the last week of the campaign.

 

[Remius]

I'd give it about a week and a half, if the CPC can start regaining momentum and change course. Then I don't think they can regain in in the last week of the campaign.

Week 1 didn’t go so well. If week 2 doesn’t get better that leaves week 3 to pivot which will probably be too late.

Debates could change things but given how PP debates he might do more damage to himself.

 

[brihard]

Week 1 didn’t go so well. If week 2 doesn’t get better that leaves week 3 to pivot which will probably be too late.

Debates could change things but given how PP debates he might do more damage to himself.

I expect Carney’s going to be spending as much time as possible being coached on the debates and rehearsing certain key words and phrases in French. His schedule right now must be insane.

The debates will matter, but by then we’re a week and a half out from the election, so the CPC needs something to really break their way sooner than that.

 

[Remius]

I expect Carney’s going to be spending as much time as possible being coached on the debates and rehearsing certain key words and phrases in French. His schedule right now must be insane.

He would only have to keep projecting a calm demeanour and not get baited.

The debates will matter, but by then we’re a week and a half out from the election, so the CPC needs something to really break their way sooner than that.

Agreed.

This whole thing is fascinating to watch in real time.

On an another note McGuinty is now our MP and liberal candidate. Facing off against Turner who is challenging the seat. Boundary lines were just changed. Freaking confused yesterday seeing their signs…

 

[Czech_pivo]

Sorry, which MP? If you’re referring to Jennie Byrne, the one quote-tweeting O’Toole and also the one wearing the MAGA hat a bit farther upthread, she’s not an MP and has never held elected office. She’s a political consultant with a long CPC pedigree, and a very close - arguably the most influential - advisor to Poilievre.

Not sure she herself has been able to make the needed pivot here.

Ahh, my bad, thought she was a MP.
I stand corrected

 

[Remius]

Ahh, my bad, thought she was a MP.
I stand corrected

Chief of staff, campaign manager, consultant, MAGA fan and former PP love interest.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Chief of staff, campaign manager, consultant, MAGA fan and former PP love interest.

lol - a blue Katie Telford.

 

[JLB50]

Sorry, which MP? If you’re referring to Jennie Byrne, the one quote-tweeting O’Toole and also the one wearing the MAGA hat a bit farther upthread, she’s not an MP and has never held elected office. She’s a political consultant with a long CPC pedigree, and a very close - arguably the most influential - advisor to Poilievre.

Not sure she herself has been able to make the needed pivot here.

It’s my understanding that Jenni Byrne is one of the strategists that Poilievre listens to the most.

 

[Remius]

It’s my understanding that Jenni Byrne is one of the strategist that Poilievre listens to the most.

Yes.

 

[Czech_pivo]

The sooner the CPC dumps PP after this election and brings in Michael Chong as leader, the better chance they have at winning and owning the centre and the next election, the better.

 

[brihard]

On an another note McGuinty is now our MP and liberal candidate. Facing off against Turner who is challenging the seat. Boundary lines were just changed. Freaking confused yesterday seeing their signs…

Yeah, it’ll be an easy lock for McGuinty. I had to look up Blair Turner for CPC. Looks like he is/was OPP. I noticed the Nepean candidate is a recent cop as well. Maybe police officers make for convenient also-rans?

It’s my understanding that Jenni Byrne is one of the strategists that Poilievre listens to the most.

That’s my understanding as well. So far it seems to be working out great.

The sooner the CPC dumps PP after this election and brings in Michael Chong as leader, the better chance they have at winning and owning the centre and the next election, the better.

Poilievre will retain his seat handily, but if he hypothetically loses the election I cannot see him staying leader; pissing this one away will basically mean political disgrace and will rock the internal party factions. The CPC will see the need to pick someone more mature and more centrist to contest a Carney government in a few more years. I’m not sure what a post-leadership Poilievre would look like; he’s only ever really worked politics, he doesn’t have a profession to fall back on, his education is quite modest, botching an election as thoroughly as this one wouldn’t necessarily make him a compelling political consultant, and I’m not sure how his ego would handle failure and relegation from leadership. The House of Commons is sort of all he’s got without taking a big step backwards. He really needs to win this. And a few Byrne-type Conservative power brokers need him to win too.

 

[HavokFour]

The sooner the CPC dumps PP after this election and brings in Michael Chong as leader, the better chance they have at winning and owning the centre and the next election, the better.

This may and probably will require a splitting of the CPC back into the PC and Reform, or you'll just get more flip flopping like we saw with O'Tool having to please the latter. I do like Chong though.