US Presidential Election 2024 - Trump vs Harris - Vote Hard with a Vengence

[Brad Sallows]

Source on that?

One focus group. No need to panic.

Anyone wanting to panic would be better off following RCP's daily "This Day In History" of poll spreads (2016, 2020, and 2024).

 

[KevinB]

Brad, I understand what you're saying. Words matter. However, the statement was drafted to give Biden an out during the debate last election. He was the one that made it 'fact' when responding to Trump. Parse it, A debate, that if the truth had been told, could seriously have affected the election outcome, but the intent was to close debate on the laptop and confirm it as Russian election interference. Between beating up Twitter and Facebook to fall in line, by 3 letter agencies and hiding the laptop, to the infamous 51 statement, it worked for what it was designed to do. Lie to and keep voters in the dark about the truth.

The FBI Counter Intelligence folks had said that it was genuine. Part of the issue that popped up was the chain of custody (or lack thereof). Yes there were a lot of stories from individuals in the FBI that it was likely Russian Disinformation, but as an agency no one actually contradicted the original CI claim.

New agencies ran with multiple stories about it being disinformation, which when looked at ran back to one individual FBI agent.

—- however Hunter Biden was not running for President, and as such it really has about as much to do with his father’s credibility as the Bush girls getting busted with fake ID’s while underage.

Don Jr has a litany of problems as well, but they are irrelevant to the suitability or not of his father to be President.


Quite frankly None of the Above is a better choice for President than either of the two current candidates.

 

[Brad Sallows]

—- however Hunter Biden was not running for President, and as such it really has about as much to do with his father’s credibility as the Bush girls getting busted with fake ID’s while underage.

Don Jr has a litany of problems as well, but they are irrelevant to the suitability or not of his father to be President.

The issue wasn't the presidential candidate's suitability. The issue was whether the presidential finances were entangled with the presidential son's finances, and whether those finances amounted to bribery.

 

[dimsum]

One focus group. No need to panic.

I just asked for a source for the comments.

Anyone wanting to panic would be better off following RCP's daily "This Day In History" of poll spreads (2016, 2020, and 2024).

I don’t 100% trust polls because, again, 2016 - but I did watch the debate and I’m not sure how comments like “3 v 1” translate to “Trump won the debate”.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Im seeing reports independent support went up for Trump after the debate.

Using the electoral map link I've posted a couple of times, today's showed little change. It still has Trump winning by a handy margin. Harris didn't get a bump out of this from the looks of it. The map is based on polling data from 538.com

 

[Brad Sallows]

I don’t 100% trust polls because, again, 2016 - but I did watch the debate and I’m not sure how comments like “3 v 1” translate to “Trump won the debate”.

It isn't necessary to trust the polls for accuracy in a particular year when comparing polls vs outcomes across a couple of elections. If polling agencies still haven't fixed the biases that produce measurement shifts advantageous to Democrats, then, for example, "D+1" might actually be "R+1".

The Democratic strategy of minimizing Harris's exposure to challenging venues looks like they think they're trying to protect a lead; the comparison of current and past numbers suggests it's a lead that doesn't exist. A handful of well-known Democrats (or supporters) are exhorting caution (eg. Nate Silver, Ruy Texeira), but the overwhelming majority of Democratic partisans are high on their own product ("vibe").

I suppose some people think "3 vs 1" is enough of a handicap that it amounts to a raw score of "Trump won". But the most common take I'm seeing from centre-right to not-particularly-centre-right is that Trump should have prepared and that he was ill-disciplined (kept rising to the bait) and missed opportunities. Not as much fart-huffing going on among Republicans.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Using the electoral map link I've posted a couple of times, today's showed little change. It still has Trump winning by a handy margin. Harris didn't get a bump out of this from the looks of it. The map is based on polling data from 538.com

Too early to measure bumps. Wait a few days.

 

[brihard]

Using the electoral map link I've posted a couple of times, today's showed little change. It still has Trump winning by a handy margin. Harris didn't get a bump out of this from the looks of it. The map is based on polling data from 538.com

Yeah, you posted from that same site the other day, and it had Trump at over 400 electoral votes. That’s, uh… I’ll be kind and say it’s a bit dubious.

 

[Lumber]

Using the electoral map link I've posted a couple of times, today's showed little change. It still has Trump winning by a handy margin. Harris didn't get a bump out of this from the looks of it. The map is based on polling data from 538.com

lol. "Donald Trump crushed Kamala Harris in the first Presidential debate..." is where I decided I didn't need to listen to the rest of it.

 

[KevinB]

The issue wasn't the presidential candidate's suitability. The issue was whether the presidential finances were entangled with the presidential son's finances, and whether those finances amounted to bribery.

None of which was able to be determined factually by the laptop or various audits of President Biden’s finances.

So much effort has been made by the MAG crowd about this, that then choses to overlook the selling of Pardons and State Secrets by DJT when he was President.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Using the electoral map link I've posted a couple of times, today's showed little change. It still has Trump winning by a handy margin. Harris didn't get a bump out of this from the looks of it. The map is based on polling data from 538.com

I never said anything about who won the debate. I covered that already. Who won or lost doesn't translate to the map. It's a collection of raw data, that then gets translated to the map data. As things change the map numbers change

If you want to know the methodology used for the maps, check the ones I already posted. The author explains how they make their determinations using the 538 web site.

You're all free to draw your own conclusions. I'm only posting it for information. I have no dog in this.

None of which was able to be determined factually by the laptop or various audits of President Biden’s finances.

So much effort has been made by the MAG crowd about this, that then choses to overlook the selling of Pardons and State Secrets by DJT when he was President.

My posts had to do with the dishonesty of the democrats. I used the bullying of social media by the 3 letter agencies and the 51 intelligence signatories as an example of this. Not whether Biden was guilty or not. Biden is on the beach. No longer in the election picture or any other picture from what it appears. He's too demented to be held responsible for anything anyway Joe Biden isn't even worth speaking of.

Personally, I think the only reason they are leaving him alone, is because removing him makes Harris POTUS. They don't want her near the post until after the election, when it's too late, because they don't want voters to get a look at her actually performing the job. That and people might expect her to actually start implementing her new promises.

 

[dimsum]

I never said anything about who won the debate. I covered that already. Who won or lost doesn't translate to the map. It's a collection of raw data, that then gets translated to the map data. As things change the map numbers change

If you want to know the methodology used for the maps, check the ones I already posted. The author explains how they make their determinations using the 538 web site.

You're all free to draw your own conclusions. I'm only posting it for information. I have no dog in this.

My posts had to do with the dishonesty of the democrats. I used the bullying of social media by the 3 letter agencies and the 51 intelligence signatories as an example of this. Not whether Biden was guilty or not. Biden is on the beach. No longer in the election picture or any other picture from what it appears. He's too demented to be held responsible for anything anyway Joe Biden isn't even worth speaking of.

Personally, I think the only reason they are leaving him alone, is because removing him makes Harris POTUS. They don't want her near the post until after the election, when it's too late, because they don't want voters to get a look at her actually performing the job. That and people might expect her to actually start implementing her new promises.

Or, I don’t know, maybe he’s on leave?

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I'd like to see that source, because after searching, nothing I could find corroborates that statement. In fact, while I couldn't find any actually polling data, interviews with independents post-debate indicated they either weren't swayed, or leaned Harris more often than Trump:

What undecided voters thought of the debate: From the Politics Desk

Plus, Trump's debate performance prompts concern from allies, and the first general election ballots are in the mail.

www.nbcnews.com

Swing state voters watching debate say Harris was prepared, Trump lost his cool

Swing-state residents from across the country shared their thoughts with the USA TODAY Network during and after the Harris vs. Trump debate.

www.usatoday.com

Undecided Americans impressed by Harris - did debate shift their votes?

We spoke to eight voters who see the debate as crucial in determining who they will support in November.

www.bbc.com

Even RFK Jr. doesn't think this went well toward gaining support from independents:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4875178-rfk-jr-independent-support-trump-debate/

If you go to NewsMax, they are reporting the opposite from their post debate flash poll. Their viewers have a different slant on the debate.

Who to believe?

 

[dimsum]

If you go to NewsMax, they are reporting the opposite from their post debate flash poll. Their viewers have a different slant on the debate.

Who to believe?

Probably not the one labelled “Questionable Source” by media bias fact checkers.

Newsmax - Bias and Credibility

QUESTIONABLE SOURCE A questionable source exhibits one or more of the following: extreme bias, consistent promotion of propaganda/conspiracies, poor or no

mediabiasfactcheck.com

 

[Brad Sallows]

None of which was able to be determined factually by the laptop or various audits of President Biden’s finances.

So much effort has been made by the MAG crowd about this, that then choses to overlook the selling of Pardons and State Secrets by DJT when he was President.

Biden's finances haven't been audited, or investigated by a federal investigative agency. The Republicans pulled what they could with a House committee, which is limited. That's it so far.

I don't recollect any pardons or state secrets being sold. What were the allegations?

 

[Brad Sallows]

Personally, I think the only reason they are leaving him alone, is because removing him makes Harris POTUS.

That doesn't make her "POTUS". She isn't really executing any important functions of the presidency delegated to her, either. I doubt the campaign wants her attached to any unfortunate turn of events that land in the White House for a couple of months. They're leaving him alone and minimizing his appearances for the same reason - to get distance between her, and Biden and everything about the Biden administration that independent voters might find off-putting.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Probably not the one labelled “Questionable Source” by media bias fact checkers.

Newsmax - Bias and Credibility

QUESTIONABLE SOURCE A questionable source exhibits one or more of the following: extreme bias, consistent promotion of propaganda/conspiracies, poor or no

mediabiasfactcheck.com

There are plenty of comparable leftist sites giving their own opposite opinion. This 'media bias' is not one sided. We've been over this before. It makes zero difference. That is why Ground News is good. It gives perspective from both sides and let's you compare left centre and right.
Just a five second search without much thought into,the question https://ground.news/article/who-won-the-us-presidential-debate_060e8c You can ask your own questions and do your own research if you're interested in different opinion from all sides.

I said earlier that Trump and Harris were both shit. Neither can claim the high ground.

The only ones that are winners/losers are the voters.

Winners because they got to see them both at their worst. Losers because they will have to vote for them.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

That doesn't make her "POTUS". She isn't really executing any important functions of the presidency delegated to her, either. I doubt the campaign wants her attached to any unfortunate turn of events that land in the White House for a couple of months. They're leaving him alone and minimizing his appearances for the same reason - to get distance between her, and Biden and everything about the Biden administration that independent voters might find off-putting.

Lots of reasons. We've just touched on a couple.