Trudeau Popularity - or not. Nanos research

[Maxman1]

They didn’t come remotely close to doing that. I ran the numbers. The LPC margin was far too high for PPC votes to make a difference in any but a handful of seats and certainly not to the balance of parliamentary power.

There were two dozen seats where either the Liberal or NDP won by less than the margin of votes that went PPC. Add everything together, and that would have been in minority government territory.

 

[Haggis]

They didn’t come remotely close to doing that. I ran the numbers. The LPC margin was far too high for PPC votes to make a difference in any but a handful of seats and certainly not to the balance of parliamentary power.

I never said they were successful.

 

[Remius]

Will be interesting to see what happens in a week with the polls after their huge announcement on housing.

Not sure it will move any needles. Until houses are built and available and people owning them I doubt it will affect polling in any significant way.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Not sure it will move any needles. Until houses are built and available and people owning them I doubt it will affect polling in any significant way.

I feel like most people are recognizing these announcements as empty fluff, a late attempt to stop the hemorrhaging.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

I feel like most people are recognizing these announcements as empty fluff, a late attempt to stop the hemorrhaging.

The term is ingratiating deflection:

Ingratiating behavior involves performing kind acts or offering pleasant words to seem more credible, reputable, or caring, with the underlying intent to deceive.

This is a common tactic with narcissistic abusers, so, let's see if the shoe fits here.

 

[brihard]

There were two dozen seats where either the Liberal or NDP won by less than the margin of votes that went PPC. Add everything together, and that would have been in minority government territory.

21, specifically. That assumes all of those PPC votes and consequently all of those 16 LPC and 5 NDP seats would have gone CPC. It would have left the CPC with 140 seats against LPC 144, and 19 for NDP. Same Parliamentary balance. In practice, a few of those CPC+PPC totals were so narrowly above LPC that it likely would have been fewer.

We had a fairly detailed discussion on this in the prior election threat a few years ago.

 

[Remius]

I feel like most people are recognizing these announcements as empty fluff, a late attempt to stop the hemorrhaging.

Agreed about trying to stop the hemorrhage. Even if they aren’t empty (some of these initiatives are decent efforts), it’s probably too late anyways. We won’t see the effects for a few years anyways. Interest rates are where they are and housing prices are not becoming affordable by any means.

A colleague of mine making close to 6 figures, looking to move from a 1 bedroom condo apartment to a 2 bedroom town/garden home is weighing her options and doesn’t think she can do it. I suspect that is common. Meaning she can’t leave her entry level property to get into something bigger. One less entry level available as a result.

Another is renting. Wants to buy with her fiancé. Doesn’t feel it’s time due to prices and rates.

These aren’t students or anything. These are people with good jobs and salaries.

No announcement today is going to suddenly make them feel good about the Housing market.

 

[brihard]

Agreed about trying to stop the hemorrhage. Even if they aren’t empty (some of these initiatives are decent efforts), it’s probably too late anyways. We won’t see the effects for a few years anyways. Interest rates are where they are and housing prices are not becoming affordable by any means.

A colleague of mine making close to 6 figures, looking to move from a 1 bedroom condo apartment to a 2 bedroom town/garden home is weighing her options and doesn’t think she can do it. I suspect that is common. Meaning she can’t leave her entry level property to get into something bigger. One less entry level available as a result.

Another is renting. Wants to buy with her fiancé. Doesn’t feel it’s time due to prices and rates.

These aren’t students or anything. These are people with good jobs and salaries.

No announcement today is going to suddenly make them feel good about the Housing market.

Nope, they’ll need shovels in dirt ASAP. Interestingly, the announcement has NOT come as an election platform promise on the party website, but rather as an infrastructure announcement tied to the imminent budget. Some of what’s in there will take effect potentially within months. Trudeau is looking to walk into the election a year and a half into the execution of this plan rather than making it contingent on getting voted in.

 

[Remius]

Nope, they’ll need shovels in dirt ASAP. Interestingly, the announcement has NOT come as an election platform promise on the party website, but rather as an infrastructure announcement tied to the imminent budget. Some of what’s in there will take effect potentially within months. Trudeau is looking to walk into the election a year and a half into the execution of this plan rather than making it contingent on getting voted in.

For sure. My point on effects is more on polling and people’s attitude towards housing.

And yeah, I think that is the plan. Go into an election with a possible tangible result to show for. I do think that a lot of the initiatives and plans are quite good. It will be interesting to see what the CPC comes up with other than threatening cities and gatekeepers with federal fund pulling when the campaign officially starts. At some point PP will need to come up with something more concrete. (Mind you with polling where it’s at he may not really have to…)

 

[brihard]

For sure. My point on effects is more on polling and people’s attitude towards housing.

And yeah, I think that is the plan. Go into an election with a possible tangible result to show for. I do think that a lot of the initiatives and plans are quite good. It will be interesting to see what the CPC comes up with other than threatening cities and gatekeepers with federal fund pulling when the campaign officially starts. At some point PP will need to come up with something more concrete. (Mind you with polling where it’s at he may not really have to…)

Yup, this is going to force the CPC on fairly short order (after the budget passes) to either cede the ground, or to start talking about what they’d do instead.

Let’s not be unaware of our own sample bias here on this site; most of us are NOT the ones profoundly hit by housing availability issues. Most of us are reasonably or very well set already. But, tie this issue in with the discussions elsewhere on the site about threats to Canada’s social and political cohesion, and housing is very high up there as an issue of concern for a lot of people whose votes count as much as ours.

Housing is a major long term concern for me personally. I want to know what kind of opportunities for work and housing my son will find when he matures.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Very little can the feds do directly on the housing issue. It is rightly a Provincial and municipal level issue. Where they can do it directly is on CAF bases and Reserves. If the CPC gets in, they could have some of the Camp companies build accommodations on bases in very short order, while they work on long term solutions. This camp will be up for sale soon.

 

[Remius]

Yup, this is going to force the CPC on fairly short order (after the budget passes) to either cede the ground, or to start talking about what they’d do instead.

Let’s not be unaware of our own sample bias here on this site; most of us are NOT the ones profoundly hit by housing availability issues. Most of us are reasonably or very well set already. But, tie this issue in with the discussions elsewhere on the site about threats to Canada’s social and political cohesion, and housing is very high up there as an issue of concern for a lot of people whose votes count as much as ours.

Housing is a major long term concern for me personally. I want to know what kind of opportunities for work and housing my son will find when he matures.

I’m exactly in that boat. little to no housing worries.

But looking hard at the solutions being proposed and how it will impact my kid. Housing will likely be on my list of things to vote for or against next election for me.

 

[YZT580]

I’m exactly in that boat. little to no housing worries.

But looking hard at the solutions being proposed and how it will impact my kid. Housing will likely be on my list of things to vote for or against next election for me.

logical approach by the CPC would be to go directly to the cause of the shortage, being too many people for the numbers available and show plans to regulate/reduce the number of immigrants of all types except legitimate refugees whilst offering a plan to work with the provinces directly to free up some government holdings for a leasehold system. Thus staying within current division of responsibilities and also not increasing government expenditures

 

[GR66]

logical approach by the CPC would be to go directly to the cause of the shortage, being too many people for the numbers available and show plans to regulate/reduce the number of immigrants of all types except legitimate refugees people with skills we need whilst offering a plan to work with the provinces directly to free up some government holdings for a leasehold system. Thus staying within current division of responsibilities and also not increasing government expenditures

FTFY

 

[Remius]

logical approach by the CPC would be to go directly to the cause of the shortage, being too many people for the numbers available and show plans to regulate/reduce the number of immigrants of all types except legitimate refugees whilst offering a plan to work with the provinces directly to free up some government holdings for a leasehold system. Thus staying within current division of responsibilities and also not increasing government expenditures

Possibly. There are several causes that go beyond immigration. But so far, the CPC seems to be skipping the provinces in their housing ideas.

An extract:

• Require unaffordable big cities like Vancouver to increase homebuilding by 15% annually or face big financial penalties and have portions of their federal funding withheld.
• Impose a NIMBY penalty on big city gatekeepers for egregious cases of NIMBYism. We will empower residents to file complaints about NIMBYism with the federal infrastructure department. When complaints are well-founded, we will withhold infrastructure dollars until municipalities remove the blockage and allow homebuilding to take place.
• Reward cities who are removing gatekeepers and getting homes built by providing a building bonus for municipalities who boost homebuilding.
• Require cities seeking federal funds pre-approve building permits for high-density housing and employment on all available land surrounding transit stations.

 

[Good2Golf]

I’m exactly in that boat. little to no housing worries.

But looking hard at the solutions being proposed and how it will impact my kid. Housing will likely be on my list of things to vote for or against next election for me.

Housing will no doubt be a statistically highly visible issue, but I think many are not/will not be making a firm linkage between the relatively large sequential deficits and associated massive debt that is primarily financed with government bonds, which in turn (continues to) pressure upwards inflation. I will be Ken to observe the months following the budget to see what happens to inflation. Tiff Macklem had been clear that he’s not ready to lower the BoC prime lending rate just yet, and if inflation resurges from its current ~2.8% above 3% due to deficit/debt pressure, the rate won’t be coming down any time soon like some are hoping.

On verra

 

[OldSolduer]

Very little can the feds do directly on the housing issue. It is rightly a Provincial and municipal level issue. Where they can do it directly is on CAF bases and Reserves. If the CPC gets in, they could have some of the Camp companies build accommodations on bases in very short order, while they work on long term solutions. This camp will be up for sale soon.

Where is this and what camp is this?

 

[brihard]

Where is this and what camp is this?

Site C Dam construction camp near Fort St John.

 

[Maxman1]

logical approach by the CPC would be to go directly to the cause of the shortage, being too many people for the numbers available and show plans to regulate/reduce the number of immigrants of all types except legitimate refugees whilst offering a plan to work with the provinces directly to free up some government holdings for a leasehold system. Thus staying within current division of responsibilities and also not increasing government expenditures

Pollivre already stated immigration will be tied to housing. He isn't focusing on it that much because it would be any easy in for Trudeau to cry racism.

 

[Good2Golf]

Interesting take on Trudeau’s use of the federal public service to grow his voter base…

How a ballooning public sector is reshaping Canada’s economy — The Globe and Mail

The number of workers in Canada’s public sector has soared in recent years, outpacing the private sector, but economists warn the growth of government jobs is not sustainable in the long run

apple.news

An interesting aspect of the article is the GoC’s stated plan, year over year, to stop hiring…the blue and light red dashed lines are the previously pledged “we’ll stop hiring public servants….honest!” Dark red dashed is the projected reduction of the previously promise to reduce in 2024/25 is honored…