The War in Ukraine

[brihard]

Well one objective may be in sight.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1821896886619435107

Unless Ukraine made some major movement northeast in the past day they’re still 50km shy. I still can’t see that happening.

I COULD see them smacking the shit out of all reachable electricity distribution sites around the plant, to cut it off from the grid, but that doesn’t require boots on the ground presence. I would also expect the plant and its environs to be heavily defended. In fact odds are the Russians are attacking forces up there out of fear, that would be much more useful at the FEBA.

Allowing Russia to think it’s an objective could be helpful though.

Would this be the reason for the invasion: To bring their most effective drones into range for an assault on Lipetsk? With the damage being done nightly by those glide bombs, staging a major incursion such as this would be worthwhile. I suppose this means another delivery will be coming from NK to replace stocks but that won't replace the airframes

Ukraine’s UAVs already have more than enough range for sites like that. It’s only 300km from the front lines. Ukraine has hit Moscow.

Well looks like it will be HIMARS O’clock again shortly

https://twitter.com/x/status/1821865861734359107

I mean… Pretty sure Ukraine knew about that one already. But I bet that reporter’s gonna have a bad day.

 

[KevinB]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1821884639557927049

 

[The Bread Guy]

Yup. If we are abbreviating Ukraine it’s either UA or UKR depending on if we are going two or three letters ISO standards.

UK is the United Kingdom.

<anal pedantry> GB or GBR is United Kingdom </anal pedantry>

Well one objective may be in sight.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1821896886619435107

Could it be as simple as, "You want to talk, Vlad? How much of your bit of USSR 2.0 do you want back?" I'm thinking more political than tactical/operational objectives.

Also, couldn't help sharing this, from some UKR CP in the northeast of the country

 

[Czech_pivo]

Well one objective may be in sight.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1821896886619435107

I wondered about that from the very beginning. Its one heck of a poker chip.

 

[KevinB]

@brihard if the ISW is correct

https://twitter.com/x/status/1821766437142184036

Then the AFU are well inside 10km of the plant

 

[Czech_pivo]

@brihard if the ISW is correct

https://twitter.com/x/status/1821766437142184036

View attachment 87134
Then the AFU are well inside 10km of the plant

If they do go for the NPP and they are able to seize and wreck it - 100% certain they just wrote themselves into a Case Study that will be dissected for the next 50+yrs by all major war schools around the world.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

If they do go for the NPP and they are able to seize and wreck it - 100% certain they just wrote themselves into a Case Study that will be dissected for the next 50+yrs by all major war schools around the world.

If they do capture a NPP, the laws of war do not permit them to wreck. They then have to protect it. It would be a bit of millstone, actually.

 

[The Bread Guy]

If they do capture a NPP, the laws of war do not permit them to wreck. They then have to protect it. It would be a bit of millstone, actually.

On a purely tit-for-tat basis, though, it could be a handy "You want one of ours? Well, we have one of yours now."

Still, if that's what they're after, and if they get it, high risk - but big prize, too.

 

[KevinB]

If they do go for the NPP and they are able to seize and wreck it - 100% certain they just wrote themselves into a Case Study that will be dissected for the next 50+yrs by all major war schools around the world.

I don’t think anyone would be supportive of wrecking it. NPP’s are a major taboo, when Russia seized Zaporrizhzhya NPP there was fighting around the site and damage to some of the reactors that could have been a major disaster beyond what occurred at Chernobyl.

Surrounding it and cutting it off from supply, perhaps, as I doubt the RuAF would be thrilled about attacking it. I would assume the goal would be to make a pitch for a withdrawal on both sides and swap NPP’s.

NPP’s are a National Level of Interest issue - only a few SOF entities in the world are skilled, budgeted and experienced to even practice conducting operations to seize and secure them by entry.

I would expect that if this is an objective Ukraine would simply surround it, and contain the perimeter. While their SOF it remarkably experienced with ground war — unless the UK and US Tier 1 entities have spent the last 18 months running UKR SOF through NPP seizure operations, (which I most strongly doubt would be the case) then I can’t see this being a feasible scenario.

 

[dapaterson]

British SOF would never seize a power plant - no balcony to pose for pictures.

 

[The Bread Guy]

A Norwegian environmental NGO has this take on the potential of Kurk's NPP at least possibly being in UKR's sights (with a bit of technical detail re: the Kursk NPP itself) - also archived here if the original link doesn't work

Will Ukraine's attack on Russian territory lead to the seizure of the Kursk Nuclear Plant? - Bellona.org

BY Dmitry Gorchakov As the Ukrainian army’s cross-border incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region rages into its fourth day, the objectives of the surprise attack have been grist for media speculation. Some have suggested the Ukrainians might target the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant as payback for...

bellona.org

Their map of whazzup ...

... and a breakdown of considerations via their environmental lens

 

[daftandbarmy]

British SOF would never seize a power plant - no balcony to pose for pictures.

And no balcony big enough for all the walts

 

[The Bread Guy]

RUS state media (archive link): No worries .....

MSM version, as well as a UKR media update

The mayor of kurchatov, russia, where the kursk Nuclear Power Plant is located, reported fighting several dozen kilometers from the city | УНН

УНН War ✎ The mayor of the russian city of kurchatov reported fighting several dozen kilometers from the kursk nuclear power plant. The IAEA is monitoring the s…

unn.ua

 

[brihard]

@brihard if the ISW is correct

https://twitter.com/x/status/1821766437142184036

View attachment 87134
Then the AFU are well inside 10km of the plant

I could maybe see SOF/reconnaissance doing some ground work that far up, especially if the battlespace is still really permeable, but I highly doubt Ukrainian has anything significant up that way or we’d be hearing more about it.

Some sort of feint towards Kursk NPP would potentially help fix early Russian reinforcements there and give Ukraine more time to capture and consolidate. There would be value to that. But I highly doubt the Ukrainians have enough on the ground to be pushing a major force that way so far in advance of what they already have. Their GLOC have to be tough to establish and maintain already, within fighting apparent along a couple of axes and limited road networks. Nearly everything there is rural village roads. They need to be careful not to extend too far and get a force pinched off.

 

[Czech_pivo]

If they do capture a NPP, the laws of war do not permit them to wreck. They then have to protect it. It would be a bit of millstone, actually.

Wreck the transmission lines to/from the plant? Is that permissible?

 

[brihard]

Wreck the transmission lines to/from the plant? Is that permissible?

Absolutely.

There is no absolute rule against attacking an NPP or other installation “containing dangerous forces”. Extra care has to be taken, and it must be a valid military objective. That latter part wouldn’t be very hard to justify.

The customary international law of armed conflict pertaining to this is summarized here: https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v1/rule42

The question is whether it would be worth it. Both in terms of the scale of the endeavour to reach the plant, and the risks inherent in trying to take it over.

In a hypothetical case of a succesful raid on Kursk NPP, I don’t know how easily the two operating reactors (same type as Chernobyl) could be SCRAMed and shut down, allowing for wrecking of other plant facilities without endangering the reactors. That would be super super sketchy to fuck with and you would need a highly knowledgeable team to do it. I would be amazed if this were a true objective. But by all means make the Russians fear it is.

 

[Kirkhill]

The War Zone summary via RealClearDefense.

Ukrainian Forces Make Major Gains Inside Russia On Day Three Of Kursk Invasion (Updated)

Ukraine is continuing to pour troops and equipment into Russia as it sees success in its bold but risky operation in Kursk.

www.twz.com

In addition to expanding the Kursk lodgement there is mention of further activity in Lipentsk and Belgorod. Road and air movements are unimpeded (no mines, no prepared positions, no air defense). Helicopters operating freely. Ukrainians preparing logistics centres and digging in.
Platoon fortified positions.

22 Brigade seems to be the spear point along with the SOF.

Other troops are securing the flanks and digging in behind them.

A little bit of Kharkiv 2022, a little bit of the Great Raid 2014 and a little bit of Prigozhin 2023. Are the Ukrainians "occupying" or are they just denying Russia the use of its backfield? Restricting movement and knocking out factories, warehouses, airfields and military bases?

Prigozhin demonstrated how easy it was to move in the backfield once it was breached.

...

Interesting to note that local authorities in Kursk are now actively recruiting Kamikaze Drone operators, offering bonuses for experienced operators from Zaporizhia. The consequence of Putin wishing the locals well and challenging them to use their initiative?

Putin may want to hold the south but what if the Greater Moscow Oblasts start offering bonuses to forces to return to base with their Drones and Air Defence systems?

 

[Maxman1]

Maybe they could convince the Russians to attack their own unoccupied plant while actually never going near it.

 

[brihard]

UAV video purporting to be and consistent with the convoy hit. Looks like the convoy was stopped and hit then with at least four shots. That may mean fewer troops mounted up, but perhaps not. Quite a few trucks from the front took off.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1821924526801699008

 

[daftandbarmy]

UAV video purporting to be and consistent with the convoy hit. Looks like the convoy was stopped and hit then with at least four shots. That may mean fewer troops mounted up, but perhaps not. Quite a few trucks from the front took off.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1821924526801699008

If they only had A-10s.... and local air superiority