Nukes are most valuable when not used and when you can retain the threat of them. The Russians getting away with using a nuke on a country that were forced to give up all their strategic weapons (including nukes) undermines everybody else's deterrent and all but guarantees massive proliferation. At that point places like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan would and should be asking if they can really rely on the American nuclear umbrella. The Scandinavians, Balts and Poles would also have to consider if they can leave nuclear deterrence to NATO. Most people just aren't thinking of the wider implications. And to the Chinese all of this would be a Five Alarm fire that Putin has gone from useful idiot to dangerous drunk idiot with a lit match and full gas can.
The War in Ukraine
- Thread starter Bruce Monkhouse
- Start date
Nukes are most valuable when not used and when you can retain the threat of them. The Russians getting away with using a nuke on a country that were forced to give up all their strategic weapons (including nukes) undermines everybody else's deterrent and all but guarantees massive proliferation. At that point places like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan would and should be asking if they can really rely on the American nuclear umbrella. The Scandinavians, Balts and Poles would also have to consider if they can leave nuclear deterrence to NATO. Most people just aren't thinking of the wider implications. And to the Chinese all of this would be a Five Alarm fire that Putin has gone from useful idiot to dangerous drunk idiot with a lit match and full gas can.
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FTFY.Russification is official colonial policy of the Russian and Soviet Empires. It appears to be official policy of theRussian Empire 2.0Tsar-wannabe Putin as well.
Russification - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
A handful of bordering Oblasts you cannot pacify or secure does not an Empire make.
It's also another form of genocide under international law, not that it's been a pressing concern of Vlad the Impotent in any of this.
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List of equipment of the Republic of Korea Army - Wikipedia
17 T62
8 T72
35 T80
400 M113
70 BMP3
50/750 Igla
supposed to have a bunch of Russian ATGM too
plus a million 155 rounds
edit
apparently SK ATGM's are first on the list and 155 rounds
Skysix
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One of the many concerning things about the treaty between the living God and the wannabe Tsar is the importation of North Korean workers to Russia. At it 's face it will allow the replacement of many Russians and former CIS workers no longer the workforce and allow an increase in military production.
But that also implies more Russians available to mobilise - and likely (if not by intent which I have my suspicions about) a bunch of North Korean lower enlisted 'workers' who can immediately be sent or can be mobilised to fight in Ukraine.
But that also implies more Russians available to mobilise - and likely (if not by intent which I have my suspicions about) a bunch of North Korean lower enlisted 'workers' who can immediately be sent or can be mobilised to fight in Ukraine.
GR66
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The ISW website has an excellent article on the effects of US restrictions on the use of donated weapons against targets in Russia on Ukraine's ability to defend itself:
understandingwar.org
To get a sense of how much fighting is going along the entire 600-mile front just look at the list of locations where the Russians have been attacking over just the last 24-hours from ISW's Daily Update:
We need to let Ukraine take the gloves off and use every tool at their disposal to defeat the Russians. And the West needs to really put our military industry into high gear to pump out enough weapons to let Ukraine do the job. Ukraine needs that serious firepower advantage to win because frankly unless we put NATO boots on the ground (which would take this war to a whole new level that I don't think anyone wants to see), Russia has the potential to bleed Ukraine dry of manpower to the point that they will be unable to generate enough forces to conduct any significant offensive operations.
$0.02
Institute for the Study of War
Current US policy prohibiting Ukraine from using US-provided weapons in the territory of the Russian Federation is severely compromising Ukraine's ability to defend itself against the renewed cross-border invasion Russia has recently launched in Kharkiv
The war may seem "quiet" due to the lack of large areas of territory changing hands, but the Russian offensive is still continuing in a serious way and the ability of Russian forces to have a sanctuary across the border from Kharkiv enables that. It also draws Ukrainian forces away from other areas of the front where Russia can try to use their manpower advantage to attrit Ukrainian units.
To get a sense of how much fighting is going along the entire 600-mile front just look at the list of locations where the Russians have been attacking over just the last 24-hours from ISW's Daily Update:
- The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted ground attacks north of Kharkiv City near Lyptsi and northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk and Tykhe (immediately east of Vovchansk) in the evening of June 20 but noted that Russian forces did not conduct active offensive operations in this direction on June 21 and instead conducted heavy guided glide bomb strikes from Belgorod Oblast. Kharkiv Oblast Police Chief Volodymyr Tymoshenko reported that Russian forces launched 17 guided glide bombs at positions north and northeast of Kharkiv City as of 1200 local time on June 21.
- Russian sources additionally claimed that intense fighting continued in Vovchansk, with one milblogger reiterating claims that Russian forces have seized the entire Vovchansk Aggregate Plant and another claiming that Russian forces seized territory in the northern part of the Aggregate Plant, including near the children's music school.
- Ukrainian military sources have not yet confirmed that Russian forces used an FAB-3000 glide bomb to strike Lyptsi on June 20 despite widespread Russian reporting that June 20 marked the first-ever strike using an FAB-3000 with this particular glide bomb modification.
- Geolocated footage published on June 20 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced east of Pishchane (southeast of Kupyansk)
- Additional geolocated footage published on June 21 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced west of Novovodyane (southwest of Svatove)
- Fighting continued northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka; southeast of Kupyansk near Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane, and Berestove; northwest of Svatove near Stelmakhivka; northwest of Kreminna near Novosadove, Hrekivka, and Nevske; and south of Kreminna in the Serebryanske forest area on June 20 and 21
- Russian forces continued offensive operations east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske; southeast of Siversk near Spirne and Vyimka; and south of Siversk near Rozdolivka on June 20 and 21.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, including in the Kanal Microraion (easternmost Chasiv Yar); north of Chasiv Yar near Kalynivka; and southeast of Chasiv Yar near Klishchiivka on June 20 and 21
- Russian forces continued offensive operations near Toretsk; east of Toretsk near Pivnichne; southeast of Toretsk near Shumy; and south of Toretsk near Niu York on June 20 and 21
- Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced two kilometers near Niu York and Toretsk and entered the outskirts of Pivnichne
- Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn stated on June 21 that Russian forces are attacking in the Toretsk direction, including near Niu York and Shumy from Horlivka (west of Torestk), in order to develop an offensive on Chasiv Yar from the south.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Avdiivka near Vozdvyzhenka, Arkhanhelske, Novooleksandrivka, Sokil, Novopokrovske, and Novoselivka Persha; west of Avdiivka near Yasnobrodivka; and southwest of Avdiivka near Karlivka on June 20 and 21
- Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced on the northern bank of the Karlivske Reservoir and west of Netaylove (both southwest of Avdiivka)
- Geolocated footage published on June 21 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced west of Novomykhailivka (southwest of Donetsk City) and within Krasnohorivka (west of Donetsk City)
- A large number of heat anomalies detected by NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System on June 21 indicates fighting in central Krasnohorivka. Russian forces continued offensive operations west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka, Maksymilyanivka, and Heorhiivka and southwest of Donetsk City near Kostyantynivka, Pobieda, Paraskoviivka, and Vodyane on June 20 and 21.
- Positional engagements continued in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area near Staromayorske and Urozhaine (both south of Velyka Novosilka) on June 21.
- The Ukrainian General Staff reported on June 21 that Russian forces conducted guided glide bomb strikes on Novoukrainka (east of Velyka Novosilka). Russian forces have also reportedly recently increased glide bomb strikes against Staromayorske, possibly in preparation for future ground attacks near the settlement.
- Positional engagements continued near Robotyne and northeast of Robotyne near Verbove and Mala Tokmachka on June 21.
- Positional engagements continued in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast near Krynky and Kozachi Laheri and on the islands in the Dnipro River Delta on June 21.
We need to let Ukraine take the gloves off and use every tool at their disposal to defeat the Russians. And the West needs to really put our military industry into high gear to pump out enough weapons to let Ukraine do the job. Ukraine needs that serious firepower advantage to win because frankly unless we put NATO boots on the ground (which would take this war to a whole new level that I don't think anyone wants to see), Russia has the potential to bleed Ukraine dry of manpower to the point that they will be unable to generate enough forces to conduct any significant offensive operations.
$0.02
GR66
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North Korea may also send "observers" to the front in order to get some real-life combat experience which their army is lacking.
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Its not a matter of ability of the West to supply Ukraine but will or desire. How many Patriot systems have been ordered out of Raytheons 12 a year capacity for example?The ISW website has an excellent article on the effects of US restrictions on the use of donated weapons against targets in Russia on Ukraine's ability to defend itself:
Institute for the Study of War
Current US policy prohibiting Ukraine from using US-provided weapons in the territory of the Russian Federation is severely compromising Ukraine's ability to defend itself against the renewed cross-border invasion Russia has recently launched in Kharkiv
The war may seem "quiet" due to the lack of large areas of territory changing hands, but the Russian offensive is still continuing in a serious way and the ability of Russian forces to have a sanctuary across the border from Kharkiv enables that. It also draws Ukrainian forces away from other areas of the front where Russia can try to use their manpower advantage to attrit Ukrainian units.
To get a sense of how much fighting is going along the entire 600-mile front just look at the list of locations where the Russians have been attacking over just the last 24-hours from ISW's Daily Update:
I don't see how anyone can take from this that Russia will be content with just holding on to what they've captured so far. They continue to attack all along the front - despite heavy losses in personnel and equipment and obviously believe that they can ultimately win a war of attrition against Ukraine in terms of manpower and in terms of their industry's ability (along with Chinese, North Korean and Iranian support) to ultimately outpace the West's ability to supply Ukraine.
- The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted ground attacks north of Kharkiv City near Lyptsi and northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk and Tykhe (immediately east of Vovchansk) in the evening of June 20 but noted that Russian forces did not conduct active offensive operations in this direction on June 21 and instead conducted heavy guided glide bomb strikes from Belgorod Oblast. Kharkiv Oblast Police Chief Volodymyr Tymoshenko reported that Russian forces launched 17 guided glide bombs at positions north and northeast of Kharkiv City as of 1200 local time on June 21.
- Russian sources additionally claimed that intense fighting continued in Vovchansk, with one milblogger reiterating claims that Russian forces have seized the entire Vovchansk Aggregate Plant and another claiming that Russian forces seized territory in the northern part of the Aggregate Plant, including near the children's music school.
- Ukrainian military sources have not yet confirmed that Russian forces used an FAB-3000 glide bomb to strike Lyptsi on June 20 despite widespread Russian reporting that June 20 marked the first-ever strike using an FAB-3000 with this particular glide bomb modification.
- Geolocated footage published on June 20 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced east of Pishchane (southeast of Kupyansk)
- Additional geolocated footage published on June 21 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced west of Novovodyane (southwest of Svatove)
- Fighting continued northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka; southeast of Kupyansk near Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane, and Berestove; northwest of Svatove near Stelmakhivka; northwest of Kreminna near Novosadove, Hrekivka, and Nevske; and south of Kreminna in the Serebryanske forest area on June 20 and 21
- Russian forces continued offensive operations east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske; southeast of Siversk near Spirne and Vyimka; and south of Siversk near Rozdolivka on June 20 and 21.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, including in the Kanal Microraion (easternmost Chasiv Yar); north of Chasiv Yar near Kalynivka; and southeast of Chasiv Yar near Klishchiivka on June 20 and 21
- Russian forces continued offensive operations near Toretsk; east of Toretsk near Pivnichne; southeast of Toretsk near Shumy; and south of Toretsk near Niu York on June 20 and 21
- Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced two kilometers near Niu York and Toretsk and entered the outskirts of Pivnichne
- Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn stated on June 21 that Russian forces are attacking in the Toretsk direction, including near Niu York and Shumy from Horlivka (west of Torestk), in order to develop an offensive on Chasiv Yar from the south.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Avdiivka near Vozdvyzhenka, Arkhanhelske, Novooleksandrivka, Sokil, Novopokrovske, and Novoselivka Persha; west of Avdiivka near Yasnobrodivka; and southwest of Avdiivka near Karlivka on June 20 and 21
- Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced on the northern bank of the Karlivske Reservoir and west of Netaylove (both southwest of Avdiivka)
- Geolocated footage published on June 21 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced west of Novomykhailivka (southwest of Donetsk City) and within Krasnohorivka (west of Donetsk City)
- A large number of heat anomalies detected by NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System on June 21 indicates fighting in central Krasnohorivka. Russian forces continued offensive operations west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka, Maksymilyanivka, and Heorhiivka and southwest of Donetsk City near Kostyantynivka, Pobieda, Paraskoviivka, and Vodyane on June 20 and 21.
- Positional engagements continued in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area near Staromayorske and Urozhaine (both south of Velyka Novosilka) on June 21.
- The Ukrainian General Staff reported on June 21 that Russian forces conducted guided glide bomb strikes on Novoukrainka (east of Velyka Novosilka). Russian forces have also reportedly recently increased glide bomb strikes against Staromayorske, possibly in preparation for future ground attacks near the settlement.
- Positional engagements continued near Robotyne and northeast of Robotyne near Verbove and Mala Tokmachka on June 21.
- Positional engagements continued in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast near Krynky and Kozachi Laheri and on the islands in the Dnipro River Delta on June 21.
We need to let Ukraine take the gloves off and use every tool at their disposal to defeat the Russians. And the West needs to really put our military industry into high gear to pump out enough weapons to let Ukraine do the job. Ukraine needs that serious firepower advantage to win because frankly unless we put NATO boots on the ground (which would take this war to a whole new level that I don't think anyone wants to see), Russia has the potential to bleed Ukraine dry of manpower to the point that they will be unable to generate enough forces to conduct any significant offensive operations.
$0.02
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Black market sale by oligarchs of tritium gas that should have been used to maintain the boosted output of the strat warheads probably has most likely served to significantly impact their serviceability.
Yup.
I don't doubt the Russian capacity for corruption, but they do take nuclear weapon security quite seriously. Nuclear facilities are operated by a special branch of the Ministry of Defence that does not answer to the General Staff, while the warheads themselves are guarded by SOF troops from the FSB.
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I know some folks who’ve walked right into some of their storage sites. Ones with large holes in rusted fences, and cracks and major openings to secure concrete buildings. As well as ventilation systems that don’t work, so doors are opened to allow air flow…
The word miracle has been used multiple times when dealing with Russia Nuclear non-proliferation and safety.
I’m curious how many warheads have been bought by USG entities as well.
Well, for sure they have a couple of warheads, although they don't officially acknowledge it: Project Azorian - Wikipedia
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Is hunting a fellow down (possibly already wounded) who is running away, unarmed, from the battlefield fair cricket?
Skysix
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(Remembering that Putin is an FSB creation and they are winning the current internal power struggle)
ASSUMING one could trust the CIA, that would have been a low cost way of reducing their stockpile
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It is hard to say without knowing what happened preceding this clip.
Skysix
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Regarding air to air combat (FPV) drones, now drone strike packages and air tactics are (with modifications) becoming more common. Given the pace of innovation, development and manufacturing the move to FPV 2.0 (supplemented or almost completely AI piloted) will have a noticeable impact (
) on the utilization and effectiveness of ISR drones. For however long that advantage lasts that does will be able to mass units which currently is almost suicidal.
) on the utilization and effectiveness of ISR drones. For however long that advantage lasts that does will be able to mass units which currently is almost suicidal.
Skysix
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Depends on their ROE for drone use. My opinion would be yes, no ability for a drone to take a prisoner away from the zero line to a secure POW holding area and even if lightly wounded he is obviously not hors de combat and could just as easily pick up s weapon again thus is still a combatant whereas a surrender to another soldier on the ground does remove him from combat.
Lots of new laws of war to be developed as a result of the explosion in drone warfare tactics and capabilities.
TacticalTea
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In reality, this is not so different from soldiers in trenches a hundred years ago, who might be disarmed and injured by the shelling yet they can't surrender because there is no way to surrender to artillery.
It's just that in this day and age, the shells have eyes.
It is difficult to watch. I don't know if I could do it. I heard drone pilots had pretty high rates of PTSD/suicide.
The Ukrainians have dropped messages and leaflets to soldiers who want to surrender. Asking for mercy isn't enough. They have to show intent to surrender by moving to Ukrainian lines. If they drop their rifle and move towards Russian lines they should be fair game. That's just a guy coming back to kill you tomorrow.
