The War in Ukraine

[Dana381]

Alternatively there could be a realpolitik play in action here by the West. Bait Russia into attacking Ukraine by withdrawing western troops, creating intelligence stating that Russia should be able to take Kiev in 3 days, and making it look like Ukraine is weaker than they really were.

Then supply Ukraine with enough equipment to prolong the war, but not enough to win it in order to weaken Russia and it’s allies long term by dragging it into a sustained conflict they can’t afford to lose, but also likely can’t win.

Not saying this is the case, just saying I wouldn’t be surprised if it was.

Or? Here is one I have been thinking about lately.

Some say Russia wants Ukraine back as its rightful land and Kviv is the original Russian capitol. The problem (in Putins mind) seems to be the area is full of Ukrainians

What if Putin could have taken Kviv in three days but that just makes it so he needs to deal with millions of Ukrainian men.

OR drag the war on for years untill all those Ukrainian men are dead, or at least the ones able to reproduce. Then when he takes Ukraine it's only got women and old men left. It seems the average age of Ukrainian soldiers keeps climbing. When it gets high enough Putin mat kick the invasion into high gear.

The average age of Ukrainian soldier is older than 40 as the country grapples with personnel problems. - Document - Gale Academic OneFile

<em>Gale</em> Academic OneFile includes The average age of Ukrainian soldier is older than 40 a by . Click to explore.

go.gale.com

 

[suffolkowner]

Or? Here is one I have been thinking about lately.

Some say Russia wants Ukraine back as its rightful land and Kviv is the original Russian capitol. The problem (in Putins mind) seems to be the area is full of Ukrainians

What if Putin could have taken Kviv in three days but that just makes it so he needs to deal with millions of Ukrainian men.

OR drag the war on for years untill all those Ukrainian men are dead, or at least the ones able to reproduce. Then when he takes Ukraine it's only got women and old men left. It seems the average age of Ukrainian soldiers keeps climbing. When it gets high enough Putin mat kick the invasion into high gear.

The average age of Ukrainian soldier is older than 40 as the country grapples with personnel problems. - Document - Gale Academic OneFile

<em>Gale</em> Academic OneFile includes The average age of Ukrainian soldier is older than 40 a by . Click to explore.

go.gale.com

The only way that works is if the NATO countries abandon Ukraine, even the half in half out support we are giving is enough to allow Ukraine to continue to bleed Russia as well. Russian demographics are just as bad if not worse although they may have managed to restrict losses from St Petersburg and Moscow at the expense of ethnic oblasts, I wonder how smart that plan is. Lately it seems that European support is growing to fill the void from the US. We'll see if it is enough

 

[RangerRay]

Or? Here is one I have been thinking about lately.

Some say Russia wants Ukraine back as its rightful land and Kviv is the original Russian capitol. The problem (in Putins mind) seems to be the area is full of Ukrainians

In Putin’s mind, Ukraine is the Russian homeland full of backwards Russians speaking a made-up dialect, therefore belong under Moscow’s boot.

 

[quadrapiper]

Russian demographics are just as bad if not worse although they may have managed to restrict losses from St Petersburg and Moscow at the expense of ethnic oblasts, I wonder how smart that plan is.

I wish the Russians the best of it post war, with the ethnic oblasts (and the criminal classes) newly supplied with resentful combat survivors.

Hope whatever can be done to encourage separatists is being done.

Comes to mind, referencing someone's comment about $2bn being passed along to fund Ukrainian civil service pensions, that pension funds invest in all sorts of things and are an enormously noisy channel as far as outgoing funds. Equally, $2bn to maintain civil faith in Kyiv might be worth it on its own.

 

[KevinB]

In Putin’s mind, The World is the Russian homeland full of backwards Russians speaking a made-up dialect, therefore belong under Moscow’s boot.

FIFY.

 

[Good2Golf]

Or? Here is one I have been thinking about lately.

Some say Russia wants Ukraine back as its rightful land and Kviv is the original Russian capitol. The problem (in Putins mind) seems to be the area is full of Ukrainians

What if Putin could have taken Kviv in three days but that just makes it so he needs to deal with millions of Ukrainian men.

OR drag the war on for years untill all those Ukrainian men are dead, or at least the ones able to reproduce. Then when he takes Ukraine it's only got women and old men left. It seems the average age of Ukrainian soldiers keeps climbing. When it gets high enough Putin mat kick the invasion into high gear.

Putin’s on the backside of the math if that’s what he wants to achieve. He’s screwing Russia’s demographics faster than he’s wearing down Ukraine. Russians must really love looking forward to bolstering their reputation as a misery-loving society.

 

[KevinB]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776630302963642754

 

[Dana381]

The only way that works is if the NATO countries abandon Ukraine, even the half in half out support we are giving is enough to allow Ukraine to continue to bleed Russia as well. Russian demographics are just as bad if not worse although they may have managed to restrict losses from St Petersburg and Moscow at the expense of ethnic oblasts, I wonder how smart that plan is. Lately it seems that European support is growing to fill the void from the US. We'll see if it is enough

Don't bring your logic into this I didn't say it was a good plan but it sure seems to be the one Putin is trying.

Besides Demographics are easy enough to fix. I think it was Hitler during WW2 That said " if you put 10 men and 100 women in a house in a year you will have 100 babies.

We all know Putin wants Ukraine for Russia and he wants it empty of ukrainians.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Or, Putin thought Ukraine would be as inept as last time around, got cocky, and failed.

 

[mariomike]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776630302963642754

A little more in today's news.

Trump has 'secret plan' to end the Ukraine-Russia war by getting Kyiv to give up land to Putin​

Trump has 'secret plan' to end the Ukraine-Russia war

Former President Donald Trump has reportedly revealed his plan to end the war in Ukraine is by getting them to give up land to Russia.

www.dailymail.co.uk

​

Sources told The Washington Post that Trump's proposal includes urging Ukraine to give up Crimea and the Donbas border region to Russia in order to end the war.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

A little more in today's news.

Trump has 'secret plan' to end the Ukraine-Russia war

Sounds like "Peace in Our Time" 2.0 .....

 

[suffolkowner]

Don't bring your logic into this I didn't say it was a good plan but it sure seems to be the one Putin is trying.

Besides Demographics are easy enough to fix. I think it was Hitler during WW2 That said " if you put 10 men and 100 women in a house in a year you will have 100 babies.

We all know Putin wants Ukraine for Russia and he wants it empty of ukrainians.

logic's a funny thing to nail down. Ethno-nationalist concerns or internal politics may drive decisions that from the outside seem non-logical. Like this Ukraine war or maybe Taiwan.

I dont think the demographic question is going to be easy to solve as fertility is crashing even more everywhere in the world outside sub saharan Africa

 

[childs56]

Or? Here is one I have been thinking about lately.

Some say Russia wants Ukraine back as its rightful land and Kviv is the original Russian capitol. The problem (in Putins mind) seems to be the area is full of Ukrainians

Maybe Ukraine should declare Russia as theirs historically and take back their land. Move the capitol of Russia back to Kiev. Would that not be a plot twist.

 

[KevinB]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776961806151364935

 

[Czech_pivo]

Putin’s on the backside of the math if that’s what he wants to achieve. He’s screwing Russia’s demographics faster than he’s wearing down Ukraine. Russians must really love looking forward to bolstering their reputation as a misery-loving society.

In walks Serbia.......

 

[Czech_pivo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776961806151364935

Not the angle of, Ukraine starts a 4-6month campaign to hammer as many Russian airbases as possible so that when the F16 arrive late summer that the Ukrainians will go for localized air to air superiority when they try to drive a wedge to the Sea?

 

[rmc_wannabe]

Not the angle of, Ukraine starts a 4-6month campaign to hammer as many Russian airbases as possible so that when the F16 arrive late summer that the Ukrainians will go for localized air to air superiority when they try to drive a wedge to the Sea?

Those are the follow on effects. Ukraine has to still exist as Ukraine until those F-16s arrive.

 

[Rifleman62]

'I've Seen What Russian Soldiers Do in Ukraine,' – British Warrior​

 

[GR66]

Yeah...nothing to fear from Russia post-Ukraine

Leaked audio reveals Russian plan to occupy Kazakhstan territory

A leaked audio recording from a Russian deputy has sent shockwaves through diplomatic circles, indicating that Kazakhstan could be the next target of Russian aggression following Ukraine's invasion. In the recording, Russian General and State Duma deputy Andriy Gurulyov unequivocally states that...

defence-blog.com

 

[KevinB]

Yeah...nothing to fear from Russia post-Ukraine

Leaked audio reveals Russian plan to occupy Kazakhstan territory

A leaked audio recording from a Russian deputy has sent shockwaves through diplomatic circles, indicating that Kazakhstan could be the next target of Russian aggression following Ukraine's invasion. In the recording, Russian General and State Duma deputy Andriy Gurulyov unequivocally states that...

defence-blog.com

Russia absolutely will not stop until they are resoundingly defeated on the battlefield.