The War in Ukraine

[dimsum]

Meanwhile, Russian parks are becoming more dangerous for missile designers ....

Noted Russian Missile Designer Reportedly Shot Dead Near Moscow

A senior official from a Russian company that develops cruise missiles used by Moscow in its war with Ukraine has reportedly been shot and killed just outside the capital.

www.rferl.org

Russia's top missile expert gunned down in Moscow park

Mikhail Shatsky, who is said to have overseen the modernisation of Kh-59 and Kh-69 missiles used by Russia against Ukraine, was reportedly shot dead near his home. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

Ukraine's intelligence kills senior Russian missile scientist near Moscow, source claims

Mikhail Shatsky, a Russian expert involved in modernizing missiles launched against Ukraine, was shot dead near Moscow, a Defense Forces source told the Kyiv Independent on Dec. 12.

kyivindependent.com

Engineer behind Russian Kh-69 cruise missile reportedly killed in Moscow region as part of Ukrainian intelligence operation — Meduza

Mikhail Shatsky, deputy general designer and head of software at the Mars Design Bureau — which develops missiles used by the Russian military — was shot dead in the Moscow region on Friday, according to Ukrainian outlets, including Suspilne, RBC Ukraine, and UNIAN.

meduza.io

Initial reports suggest it may be this person:

 

[Eaglelord17]

So I was just reading that the 155 Mech brigade which was completely trained and equipped in france complete with mech, arty, and leopards, was basically disassembled the moment it got to Ukraine and the troops just sent elsewhere as reinforcements instead of the cohesive units they were.

Apparently some of the equipment they were trained on is also basically useless now as the units they went to don’t use it and now the skilled operators aren’t there to run it anymore.

Wouldn’t it have been better to put the whole brigade in combat, pull some weakened brigades back and amalgamate them instead of the specialized heavy brigade being dismantled?

 

[McG]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1867630961153741021

 

[The Bread Guy]

So I was just reading that the 155 Mech brigade which was completely trained and equipped in france complete with mech, arty, and leopards, was basically disassembled the moment it got to Ukraine and the troops just sent elsewhere as reinforcements instead of the cohesive units they were.

Apparently some of the equipment they were trained on is also basically useless now as the units they went to don’t use it and now the skilled operators aren’t there to run it anymore.

Good catch - more on that in regional media in northern France here (Chrome translated text into English attached) ...

« Cette lacune réduit son efficacité » : le gros point faible de la 155e brigade ukrainienne, formée en France, inquiète

La 155e brigade, qui vient de finir sa formation en France, est prête à rejoindre l...

www.lavoixdunord.fr

Victime des «décisions militaires stupides», la 155e brigade, formée en France, en partie démantelée dès son retour en Ukraine

La 155e brigade mécanisée ukrainienne, lourdement armée et formée par la France c...

www.lavoixdunord.fr

Only a slight hint about shortcomings going in (no UAVs?) here

Ukraine Formed A Powerful New Brigade. Just One Problem—It May Be Missing Drones.

The 155th Mechanized Brigade has Leopard 2 tanks and Caesar howitzers. Now it needs drones and drone jammers.

www.forbes.com

LATE ADD: Also word that the commander is .... gone.

155th Brigade Faces Leadership Change Amid First Deployment (Updated) | MilitaryLand.net

The commander has departed from the unit for reasons that remain unknown.

militaryland.net

Wouldn’t it have been better to put the whole brigade in combat, pull some weakened brigades back and amalgamate them instead of the specialized heavy brigade being dismantled?

I wouldn't want to second-guess people on the ground, but notwithstanding the fact that a good tight team can make a critical difference in critical areas, some folks looking at the bigger picture may be thinking more about how to patch holes to keep the whole thing from collapsing?

 

[KevinB]

So I was just reading that the 155 Mech brigade which was completely trained and equipped in france complete with mech, arty, and leopards, was basically disassembled the moment it got to Ukraine and the troops just sent elsewhere as reinforcements instead of the cohesive units they were.

Generally you don’t want to send unblooded troops into combat.

So in some ways that can make sense.

Apparently some of the equipment they were trained on is also basically useless now as the units they went to don’t use it and now the skilled operators aren’t there to run it anymore.

Which is a major issue with the way NATO has supported Ukraine (and at a macro level one issue the actual lack of standardization NATO suffers from).

Wouldn’t it have been better to put the whole brigade in combat, pull some weakened brigades back and amalgamate them instead of the specialized heavy brigade being dismantled?

Potentially, I’m not familiar with how the Bde was constructed personnel wise, so one would hope that they had a mix of veteran and less experienced personnel to build it with, so the NCO’s and Officers aren’t are fresh to combat as the Privates.

Ukraine has some serious senior level talent problems, and a lot of units have been needlessly sacrificed when they should have been rotated out, or advances should have been halted instead of doubling down on failure.

 

[Eaglelord17]

Generally you don’t want to send unblooded troops into combat.

So in some ways that can make sense.

I get that, but there is also pros, such as presumably that brigade would be functioning as a brigade trained together, as well as being trained in NATO tactics. Plus it was equipped with some modern heavy western equipment.

Obviously this is all armchair quarterbacking, but there is also political ramifications as well. France maybe much less willing to train and supply troops and arms if this is how the results of their efforts are treated.

 

[Maxman1]

Initial reports suggest it may be this person:

View attachment 89764

 

[daftandbarmy]

The new guys are in the meat grinder now...

North Korean troops join Russian assaults in significant numbers, Kyiv says​

"Today, we already have preliminary data that the Russians have begun to use North Korean soldiers in their assaults. A significant number of them," Zelenskiy told Ukrainians in his daily wartime address.

The North Koreans were being used in combined Russian units and only on the Kursk front for now, he said, adding: "We have information suggesting their use could extend to other parts of the front line."

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-says-russia-is-deploying-more-north-korean-troops-repel-kursk-2024-12-14/

 

[Colin Parkinson]

So I was just reading that the 155 Mech brigade which was completely trained and equipped in france complete with mech, arty, and leopards, was basically disassembled the moment it got to Ukraine and the troops just sent elsewhere as reinforcements instead of the cohesive units they were.

Apparently some of the equipment they were trained on is also basically useless now as the units they went to don’t use it and now the skilled operators aren’t there to run it anymore.

Wouldn’t it have been better to put the whole brigade in combat, pull some weakened brigades back and amalgamate them instead of the specialized heavy brigade being dismantled?

Tom Cooper has been banging that drum for awhile. He is less than impressed with the General Staff.

 

[Maxman1]

The new guys are in the meat grinder now...

North Korean troops join Russian assaults in significant numbers, Kyiv says​

"Today, we already have preliminary data that the Russians have begun to use North Korean soldiers in their assaults. A significant number of them," Zelenskiy told Ukrainians in his daily wartime address.

The North Koreans were being used in combined Russian units and only on the Kursk front for now, he said, adding: "We have information suggesting their use could extend to other parts of the front line."

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-says-russia-is-deploying-more-north-korean-troops-repel-kursk-2024-12-14/

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1he71ox/more_strage_tactical_maneuvering_by_troops_in

 

[daftandbarmy]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1he71ox/more_strage_tactical_maneuvering_by_troops_in

The ants go marching one by one, hurrah, hurrah...

 

[Skysix]

NATO has about 4-6 months, maximum, to get their shit together or it will lose WW3 (4?) that I have been saying is underway since late 2022. Ostrich level denial that Russia, Iran, Syria (not so much anymore), China, North Korea and Venezuela have ALREADY declared a war on 'the west' that is existentially dangerous to NATO as a credible deterrent. What will it take to recognise the war is well and truly happening in EVERY one of the currently recognised domains now (human = information and refugee manipulation etc, space = via GPS denial and ICBM use)

Yet "we" still are supplying Russia with tech and foreign currency by greedy shortsighted sales and oil purchases. Literally giving them the tools and finances to fight us (didn't some communist theorist/leader say that pretty much would happen?) while stabbing ourselves in the stomach by constantly broadcasting our military intentions and limits as we dribble (almost scrap) outdated (for the most part) weapons to Ukraine. Literally YEARS after they were promised. And have yet to spool up our much vaunted superiority in weapon production because most politicians are afraid to let contracts and have to increase taxes / become unemployed.

Maybe when the first spoofed or stray missile hits an urban area in Poland or Romania or some other NATO country causing significant death/damage - but I doubt it. Our shortsighted weak 'leaders' will pass it off as an unfortunate accident as NATO slides into irrelevant impotence.

And Bravo Zulu to Poland for flatly stating they would not contribute troops to any ruinously expensive, silly, massively understrength, politically constrained 'tripwire' force on some supposed 800-1000 mile long DMZ in Ukraine for the next 30 years. Once again showing clarity of vision absent outside the former Warsaw Pact. They will need those troops to defend Poland when whatever "peace in our time" agreement inevitably is raped (ignored is too soft a word) by Russia.

Rant off.

Edit: Even an immediate enforced no fly zone (with ROE allowing missiles to target airborne threats while inside Russia) and a thousand tomahawks or equivalent with no restrictions are likely going to be hard pressed to evict or even stop the Axis armies now that North Korea is staffing and equipping them and all the Syrian equipment and manpower arrives over the winter. Although immediate rigid (kinetic and financially based) enforcement of all primary and secondary sanctions would help.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Up on the right! Up on the left!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1868405893605581289

 

[Jarnhamar]

View attachment 89779

Can you explain this like I'm 5?

 

[CBH99]

Up on the right! Up on the left!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1868405893605581289

This honestly looks like Command & Conquer...even the landscape looks like a map from Red Alert

 

[CBH99]

View attachment 89779

NATO has about 4-6 months, maximum, to get their shit together or it will lose WW3 (4?) that I have been saying is underway since late 2022. Ostrich level denial that Russia, Iran, Syria (not so much anymore), China, North Korea and Venezuela have ALREADY declared a war on 'the west' that is existentially dangerous to NATO as a credible deterrent. What will it take to recognise the war is well and truly happening in EVERY one of the currently recognised domains now (human = information and refugee manipulation etc, space = via GPS denial and ICBM use)

Yet "we" still are supplying Russia with tech and foreign currency by greedy shortsighted sales and oil purchases. Literally giving them the tools and finances to fight us (didn't some communist theorist/leader say that pretty much would happen?) while stabbing ourselves in the stomach by constantly broadcasting our military intentions and limits as we dribble (almost scrap) outdated (for the most part) weapons to Ukraine. Literally YEARS after they were promised. And have yet to spool up our much vaunted superiority in weapon production because most politicians are afraid to let contracts and have to increase taxes / become unemployed.

Maybe when the first spoofed or stray missile hits an urban area in Poland or Romania or some other NATO country causing significant death/damage - but I doubt it. Our shortsighted weak 'leaders' will pass it off as an unfortunate accident as NATO slides into irrelevant impotence.

And Bravo Zulu to Poland for flatly stating they would not contribute troops to any ruinously expensive, silly, massively understrength, politically constrained 'tripwire' force on some supposed 800-1000 mile long DMZ in Ukraine for the next 30 years. Once again showing clarity of vision absent outside the former Warsaw Pact. They will need those troops to defend Poland when whatever "peace in our time" agreement inevitably is raped (ignored is too soft a word) by Russia.

Rant off.

Edit: Even an immediate enforced no fly zone (with ROE allowing missiles to target airborne threats while inside Russia) and a thousand tomahawks or equivalent with no restrictions are likely going to be hard pressed to evict or even stop the Axis armies now that North Korea is staffing and equipping them and all the Syrian equipment and manpower arrives over the winter. Although immediate rigid (kinetic and financially based) enforcement of all primary and secondary sanctions would help.

I'm not broadly disagreeing with you here...but what threat does Venezuela pose to NATO? Or Syria?

Venzuela being a tin pot dictatorship pretty far away geographically.

And Syria having its hands full with its own problems at the moment...namely the government being toppled by western backed terrorists (I mean freedom fighters, sorry)

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Venezuela is a support area for sabotage teams, etc. They have a desire to attack Guayana. They are a minor military problem, but still one to watch. Cuba was a potentiel problem, but is busy slitting it's own throat.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I'm not broadly disagreeing with you here...but what threat does Venezuela pose to NATO? Or Syria?

Venzuela being a tin pot dictatorship pretty far away geographically.

And Syria having its hands full with its own problems at the moment...namely the government being toppled by western backed terrorists (I mean freedom fighters, sorry)

Well, there's this for starters... plus their huge petro-wealth being deployed to nefarious ends

It's Time to Designate Venezuela as a State Sponsor of Terrorism​

Under the authoritarian rule of President Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela has become a hub for illicit drug trafficking and a sanctuary for terrorist organizations. The Maduro regime has cultivated mutually beneficial relationships with armed groups such as Lebanese Hezbollah and Colombia's Marxist rebel group ELN, allowing them to exploit Venezuela's lawless environment for their own nefarious ends. The Maduro regime's connections with terrorist-criminal elements and drug cartels have transformed the country into a destabilizing force in the Western Hemisphere with far-reaching implications for U.S. national security. Moreover, after Maduro failed to safeguard an open and free election in July 2024, it is time for the U.S. to designate the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela as a state sponsor of terrorism.

https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/08/its-time-to-designate-venezuela-as-a-state-sponsor.html

 

[Skysix]

I'm not broadly disagreeing with you here...but what threat does Venezuela pose to NATO? Or Syria? Venzuela being a tin pot dictatorship pretty far away geographically. And Syria having its hands full with its own problems at the moment...namely the government being toppled by western backed terrorists (I mean freedom fighters, sorry)

None to Syria, none to European members of NATO, but a real threat to the US southern border via hybrid methods such as sending lots of assylum seekers of whom some may be cells of saboteurs, sleepers and agitators to embed within the hispanic diaspora

 

[Skysix]

Can you explain this like I'm 5?

The domain slide or the youtube that seems to have been removed?