The Next Minister of Defense
- Thread starter tomahawk6
- Start date
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Rumours, worse than rumours: bar talk filtered through morning after memory:
The Tories have one single idea: winning 160 seats in the next election, which they believe will be in late Spring 2008;
To win 160 seats they need –
• Some (<10) seats to swing from Liberal to Conservative in BC and Atlantic Canada
• Quite a few (>10) seats to swing Liberal to Conservative in Ontario, outside of Toronto; and
• Some (<10) seats to swing BQ to Conservative in Québec, outside of Montréal; and
• Some (<10) seats to swing Liberal to Conservative in Montreal.
Everything, including Emerson, Fortier and McKay to Foreign Affairs was done with this in mind.
Harper will focus, closely ands clearly, on the five priorities – which do not include defence.
Emerson is expected to:
• Solve the softwood lumber problem sometime this year or first half 2007 – after fall 2007 it will be impossible to address because of the 2008 US elections; and
• Ensure that BC knows that the 2010 Olympics are being funded by all Canadians, including the hated (envied) Calgarians and Torontonians.
Fortier is expected to deliver contracts to Québec, especially to Montréal
Harper does not expect either to run in the 2008 general election, although Fortier may offer himself as something of a sacrificial lamb in Mont Royal, which may be the safest Liberal seat in Canada. He does expect their actions to deliver a few more Tory seats in their respective regions in 2008. It is expected that both events will have blown over in the next 25+ months.
McKay will be highly visible and Atlantic Canadians are expected to enjoy the sight of one of their own traipsing around on the global stage and, consequently, send a few more Tories to Ottawa.
O’Connor is expected to offer tea and sympathy to DND, along with smallish budget increases – smallish because it will be necessary to deliver a GST cut without cancelling the Liberals income tax cuts. Under-funding the gun registry, etc will not deliver anything like the money Harper needs. DND’s funding will grow but not like many here hope. Giving O’Connor the ministry he wants helps to cement the loyalty of rural Ontario members – old eastern Ontario Tories and Cheryl Gallant style Reforms alike. O’Connor straddles both camps and is a leader in both. This is, possibly, his last election, too.
Mulroney has advised Harper that no matter how good the policies suggested by ministers and their bureaucrats it must pass muster by the provincial and regional (Vancouver and Montréal qualify) barons in the cabinet – the political ministers. That’s just the way Canadian politics is: regionalism trumps national interest every time.
Remember, the above is just rumour mongering. I got them for nothing; that's probably what they're worth.
The Tories have one single idea: winning 160 seats in the next election, which they believe will be in late Spring 2008;
To win 160 seats they need –
• Some (<10) seats to swing from Liberal to Conservative in BC and Atlantic Canada
• Quite a few (>10) seats to swing Liberal to Conservative in Ontario, outside of Toronto; and
• Some (<10) seats to swing BQ to Conservative in Québec, outside of Montréal; and
• Some (<10) seats to swing Liberal to Conservative in Montreal.
Everything, including Emerson, Fortier and McKay to Foreign Affairs was done with this in mind.
Harper will focus, closely ands clearly, on the five priorities – which do not include defence.
Emerson is expected to:
• Solve the softwood lumber problem sometime this year or first half 2007 – after fall 2007 it will be impossible to address because of the 2008 US elections; and
• Ensure that BC knows that the 2010 Olympics are being funded by all Canadians, including the hated (envied) Calgarians and Torontonians.
Fortier is expected to deliver contracts to Québec, especially to Montréal
Harper does not expect either to run in the 2008 general election, although Fortier may offer himself as something of a sacrificial lamb in Mont Royal, which may be the safest Liberal seat in Canada. He does expect their actions to deliver a few more Tory seats in their respective regions in 2008. It is expected that both events will have blown over in the next 25+ months.
McKay will be highly visible and Atlantic Canadians are expected to enjoy the sight of one of their own traipsing around on the global stage and, consequently, send a few more Tories to Ottawa.
O’Connor is expected to offer tea and sympathy to DND, along with smallish budget increases – smallish because it will be necessary to deliver a GST cut without cancelling the Liberals income tax cuts. Under-funding the gun registry, etc will not deliver anything like the money Harper needs. DND’s funding will grow but not like many here hope. Giving O’Connor the ministry he wants helps to cement the loyalty of rural Ontario members – old eastern Ontario Tories and Cheryl Gallant style Reforms alike. O’Connor straddles both camps and is a leader in both. This is, possibly, his last election, too.
Mulroney has advised Harper that no matter how good the policies suggested by ministers and their bureaucrats it must pass muster by the provincial and regional (Vancouver and Montréal qualify) barons in the cabinet – the political ministers. That’s just the way Canadian politics is: regionalism trumps national interest every time.
Remember, the above is just rumour mongering. I got them for nothing; that's probably what they're worth.
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 10
What is the suspect baggage your referring too?
We all no his background and what positions he held prior to leaving the military, that is a PRO in all this because of his last position. He knows the ins/outs, loopholes on procurement and how to fast track etc.
I still don't see how his job as lobbiest 2 yrs ago, relates to now? If he isn't getting anything like kickbacks etc from contractors, then its irrelevant.
Technically speaking there is no conflict of interest. It seems too many people are worried that he will favour one contractor over another. Well news for you, He has to pick someone and he is limited with his choices as to which contractor to use? Whatever is best for the military should be the concern, not everyones personal squabbles with Mr O'Connor. Finally there isn't a friggin politician who knows nothing about the military, rather finally someone with a good understanding of both sides.
We all no his background and what positions he held prior to leaving the military, that is a PRO in all this because of his last position. He knows the ins/outs, loopholes on procurement and how to fast track etc.
I still don't see how his job as lobbiest 2 yrs ago, relates to now? If he isn't getting anything like kickbacks etc from contractors, then its irrelevant.
Technically speaking there is no conflict of interest. It seems too many people are worried that he will favour one contractor over another. Well news for you, He has to pick someone and he is limited with his choices as to which contractor to use? Whatever is best for the military should be the concern, not everyones personal squabbles with Mr O'Connor. Finally there isn't a friggin politician who knows nothing about the military, rather finally someone with a good understanding of both sides.
- Reaction score
- 1,010
- Points
- 1,160
Two news items from San Antonio, Texas. The Governor just got back from a tour with 2 other State Governors, of the theatres where soldiers from their States are deployed. The Texas Governor stated his approval of the technological improvements to the C 130 Herc ( their AC of travel!) from the ones he flew 35 years before (should fly with the CF). Also a State Senator, is on his way to Iraq as a Res USMC Colonel. He will miss the election, but his Democrate opponent (also a Vet) will make allowances ( too detailed to account for here). Different countries, different outlook. Possibly as we finally have a Minister with some understanding of the military, we should back off.
Two Sgts from San Antonio, one an Army Engineer, and one a USMC, killed in Iraq this week so far. Total of 179 Texans killed to date. Texas National Guard, who recently had an Infantry Division deployed, is well over its recruiting goals. Also, due to reenlistment's of Iraq/Afghan Vets, the training costs have been reduced. The Minister of the local church, a Reserve Navy Captain, was supposed to go to Iraq, Jan 05, but got bumped by a Reg F Chaplain who wanted the position with the Marines. So the Minister ended up on the staff of the 2 MEF, and has been all over a the Commanders Staff Chaplain- lots of visits to casualties (but thats another story).
Two Sgts from San Antonio, one an Army Engineer, and one a USMC, killed in Iraq this week so far. Total of 179 Texans killed to date. Texas National Guard, who recently had an Infantry Division deployed, is well over its recruiting goals. Also, due to reenlistment's of Iraq/Afghan Vets, the training costs have been reduced. The Minister of the local church, a Reserve Navy Captain, was supposed to go to Iraq, Jan 05, but got bumped by a Reg F Chaplain who wanted the position with the Marines. So the Minister ended up on the staff of the 2 MEF, and has been all over a the Commanders Staff Chaplain- lots of visits to casualties (but thats another story).
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commo_dude said:
While I try to avoid jacking people up for posting on topics well beyond their knowledge base, this is one time I have to call "stay in your lane."
Politics is ALL about perception. The issue is not kickbacks per se, but whether he's deemed too close to his former employers to be perceived as unbiased in any future decisions taken. He lobbied for several different defence industries. In the matter of strategic airlift procurement, for example, his previous association with Airbus will allow for claims of 'politicking' within the competition - - regardless of the reality - - based on his previous, paid, position statements.
While I've enjoyed this lesson in Defence Economics 101, please try and limit your future comments to areas in which you can contribute usefully; while not as pricey as a new C-130J, bandwidth costs money too.
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