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Scotland Independence Movement

CougarKing

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Only 6 more weeks till the landmark referendum...

Reuters

Scotland's pro-independence camp betting on TV debate to win votes
BY ALISTAIR SMOUT
EDINBURGH Mon Aug 4, 2014 7:04pm EDT

(Reuters) - Supporters of Scottish independence are hoping leader Alex Salmond's performance in a U.S.-style television debate on Tuesday can boost their campaign, which is lagging in opinion polls.

With just over six weeks to go before Scots vote on whether to break Scotland's 307-year union with England, the "No" campaign holds a steady and substantial lead over the "Yes" camp.

However, some polls suggest that as many as a quarter of Scotland's 4 million voters remain undecided.

The television debate, the first of the campaign, pits Salmond, fast-talking leader of the pro-independence Scottish National Party, against Alistair Darling, the head of the "Better Together" campaign.

(...EDITED)

Please also note related, older threads:

"Scotland independence could force UK defense industries to relocate"

"How do you break off a military for an independent Scotland?"
 
Independence more likely than previously thought?

Scottish referendum: Shock new poll says Scots set to vote for independence

'No' campaign to offer radical deal as latest figures show 51-49% backing for end of the union

The people of Scotland are to be offered an historic opportunity to devise a federal future for their country before next year's general election, it emerged last night, as a shock new poll gave the campaign for independence a narrow lead for the first time.

Amid signs of panic and recrimination among unionist ranks about the prospects of a yes vote on 18 September, The Observer has learnt that a devolution announcement designed to halt the nationalist bandwagon is due to be made within days by the anti-indepenence camp.

(...EDITED)

Source: The Guardian

London getting desperate?

NY Times

Britain Promises Scotland More Self-Rule if It Rejects Independence

LONDON — Shaken by polls showing momentum shifting toward independence for Scotland, the British government will offer proposals for greater political and fiscal autonomy for the Scots if they vote to remain within the United Kingdom in a referendum on Sept. 18, George Osborne, the chancellor of the Exchequer, said on Sunday.

(...SNIPPED)

On Sunday, Mr. Osborne, a close ally of Mr. Cameron’s, responded to the tightening race by promising more powers to Scotland if it votes no.

“More tax-raising powers, much greater fiscal autonomy,” Mr. Osborne told the BBC. "More control over public expenditure, more control over welfare rates and a host of other changes.”

The plan will be revealed “in the next few days” after the government gets agreement from all three major parties in the British Parliament, including the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats, Mr. Osborne said.

(...EDITED)
 
The Pound took a tumble today after one of those polls.  A sign of things to come I think should the Scots decide to leave.
 
Goldman Sachs doesn't think Scottish independence is a very good idea: here ... they aren't going to become the "Singapore of the North."
 
P.J. O'Rourke on Scottish Independence
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/09/13/up-to-a-point-a-free-scotland-would-be-a-hilarious-disaster.html

Up to a Point: A Free Scotland Would Be a Hilarious Disaster
And independent Scotland would be a catastrophe as a country. But it would also be very entertaining for reporters like P.J. O’Rourke.
This coming Thursday the Scots will vote on whether to make Scotland an independent nation. And I hope they do because it will be a disaster.

I don’t say this as a prejudiced Irishman. Even though the thistle-arse sheep-shagger Scots swiped Ulster and sent a herd of Presbyterian proddy dogs and porridge wogs to squat on our land and won the Battle of the Boyne in 1690 by using unfair—indeed, unheard of —- organization, discipline, and tactics on an Irish battlefield. We Micks only hold a grudge about such things for 300 years or so.

Nor is Scottish independence a misery-loves-company moment for us Irish. True, Irish independence has been no bed of shamrocks, what with the Easter Rebellion, the black-and-tans, the civil war, the IRA, and the Celtic Tiger turning out to be a mangy barn cat drowned in the well.

We Irish don’t hate the Scots per se. They’re too much like us Irish, who all hate each other. So we’re just looking for a fine entertainment from across the Irish Sea as Highland Scots have a donnybrook with Lowland Scots, Glaswegians dust up with Edinburghians, and Clan Dewers unsheathes its claymores for battle with Clan Johnny Walker.

I, however, have a personal reason for wanting an independent Scotland. I’m an ex-foreign correspondent, vintage 1983-2003, who retired after the Iraq War, too old to be scared stiff and too stiff to sleep on the ground.

Yet once foreign correspondenting gets in your blood…

Ah, there’s nothing like a primitive, quarrel-torn, disastrous Third World country. And Scotland has everything it needs to be what old-school foreign correspondents fondly call a “shit-hole.”

Plus Scotland is conveniently located for aging journos like myself. It can be “covered” from the comforts of The Ritz in London, and there will be plenty of unemployed Scottish unionist refugees hanging around waiting to be hired as drivers and translators.

Scotland’s economy will be the requisite Third World shambles. Scotland’s two dominant political parties are the leftist Scottish National Party and the leftist Scottish Labor Party. These can be counted on to vie in out-lefting each other. Cuba-with-chilblains, here we come!

Scotland will be Pakistan with exposed knees.
The Brits won’t let the Scots keep the pound. The EU needs another Greece or Portugal dragging down the euro like the EU needs another bureaucrat in Brussels. Scotland will be reduced to using the 16th century pund scots, value soon equaling the Zimbabwe dollar—to the delight of bean-counters employing journalists who have expense accounts.

Scotland already has the essential Third World drug oligarchy -— Chivas Regal, Cutty Sark, Vat 69, Grant’s, Ballantine’s, Teacher’s, J&B, Black and White, Haig and Haig, Laphroaig, Dalwhinnie, Glenmorangie, Glenfiddich, The Glenlivet, The Balvenie, The Dalmore, The Macallan.

And as a guarantee of a Third World economy in shambles, Scotland is oil-rich. Proceeds from its North Sea drilling rigs will insure corruption and kleptocracy on a Nigerian scale.

Besides poverty, privation, and suffering, Scotland will have the other standard-issue Third World conditions that foreign correspondents need to provide the colorful, heart-rending, op-ed provoking, Amnesty International-baiting copy we love to file. My Pulitzer is in the Highlands.

Scotland has poignant disease too. Does Doctors Without Borders treat hangovers?

You can be sure Scotland will have armed conflict of some kind (“bang-bang” as we pros call it). Besides internal feuds, Scotland is perfectly positioned between two hostile powers—England and Norway, who aren’t going to let those North Sea oil fields go without a fuss. Scotland will be Pakistan with exposed knees.


Scotland has terrible weather—always good as dramatic background for on-camera live reports. Albeit Scotland’s terrible weather is more the sub-Arctic than the usual sub-tropic shit-hole kind. But you can always put on more Banana Republic safari jackets, while you can only take off so many layers without looking like a half-naked fool.

Speaking of which, the Scots are ideal in the matter of outlandish native costume. The males go about in skirts and tam o’shanters carrying a lady’s purse, a sporran, that puts Channel to shame. They’re ready for their close-up. But don’t giggle. There’s a dirk at the waist and a dagger in the left sock.

Scottish foreign food is sufficiently foreign. I’ve had raw lamb brains in Kuwait, goat in Somalia, cobra blood in China, and dog stew in the Philippines. I’m eager to add haggis to my list of bragging rights.

Scottish music is sufficiently—to be kind—exotic. As soon as Scotland descends into barbarous chaos expect the pig-sticking squeal and shagged sheep moan of bagpipes to be frequently heard on NPR. (By the way, NPR newscasters will have to learn to pronounce “Scotland” the way the Scottish do. When asked how to pronounce the name of their country the Scottish say, “Faauhk you.”)

The Scottish language is, as all good Third World languages must be, incomprehensible. Take this verse by famous Scottish poet Robert Burns in his famous Scottish poem “Auld Lang Syne.”

We twa hae run about the braes,

And pound (sic) the gowans fine;

But we’ve wander’d mony a weary fit

Sin’ auld lang syne.

No one in the civilized world has any idea what that means. This allows news reporters to translate whatever is said by a Scot being interviewed into whatever will make the most news. If it bleeds, it leads.

The Scottish have the regulation Third World tales of past glory, featuring such unlikely characters as The Maid of Norway, a King Robert nick-named “The Bruce,” an Earl of Atholl (really), and Mel Gibson.

They also have the standard-issue yarn about how, after brilliant victory upon victory in defense thereof, their independence was treacherously stolen from them. This would be by the 1704 “Act of Union” with Great Britain, which passed the Scottish Parliament by a vote of 110 to 69.

The one thing the Scottish don’t have is a ridiculous dictator. The Scots exhibit many of the Third World shit-hole qualities that foreign correspondents prize, but a penchant for ridiculous dictators is not among them.

However, Mike Meyers—from whom we haven’t heard much lately—would, I’m sure, for a reasonable price (always hard to obtain from a Scotsman), get his Fat Bastard costume out of storage and undertake the role.

Oh, what a glorious catastrophe independence would be. Excuse me, I have to get the keffiyeh out of my dusty suitcase and pack a kilt.

I like that man..... :nod:
 
An independent Scotland would no longer provide troops for Her Majesty's armed forces ? How would that work ?
 
Not sure.

Canadians supply troops for Her Majesty's armed forces.  And I seem to recall Hanoverians and Hessians supplying troops for His Majesty King George III in a discussion with yourselves - despite the lack of British Parliamentary oversight of those forces.
 
From what I've gathered, in the event of a yes win:

-The UK would accept the result in good faith (as well as expect the same from Scotland in the event of a no win)
-Scotland is claiming they will owe 8% of the debt since they are 8% of the population.  The uK contends it is 12% since a disproportionate amount of money supports Scotland in the UK.
-Scotland claims to have the option of retaining the pound.  The UK says no way. One has to understand what is meant by this.  Yes they could keep the pound but they would have zero say on their economic policy if the UK excludes them from that.  Meaning no control on fiscal policy and the inability to print money.
-Scotland would remove nuclear weapon sites and form a small standing domestic military force.  Nothing to stop them here but I'm pretty sure there will be negociations.
-Admittance to the EU will not be automatic.  Many EU countries have a vested interest in wanting Scotland to fail and will probably vote against or veto their entry.  France, Spain and Itraly all have seperatist movements that will be emboldened by an independant Scotland and would use this to dissuade them. 
-They would keep the monarchy for now.  Nothing to stop them.  But I think it has more to do with appeasing monarchists and avoiding debates on several fronts.  I suspect their is a republican streak amongst the yes camp

Expect two years or so of negociations.  A yes win could mean one of two things for Canada.  If Scotland becomes a basket case country economically and likely socially it will spell the end of any serious separtist rumblings here (what little of it that remains).  If they succeed it will probably be what renews speratist fervour here (and not anything that Quebec seperatists or the federal government do here).  My take is that a quick exit by the Bank of Scotland and isolation from Europe and the UK will turn Scotland into something worse than any of the PIGS.  Even if they keep their oil industry.  Their liberal left mentality will send them to the bottom fast. Free university tuition will likely evaporate among other things.  Jobs will leave and you will see a few people jump ship elsewhere adding to the issues they wil face. 
 
Kirkhill said:
Not sure.

Canadians supply troops for Her Majesty's CANADIAN armed forces.  And I seem to recall Hanoverians and Hessians supplying troops for His Majesty King George III in a discussion with yourselves - despite the lack of British Parliamentary oversight of those forces.

ftfy
 
She's the head of state for around 16 countries or so.  But aside from the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, I'm not sure if any of the other countries have anything significant to add.
 
Crantor said:
.....I'm not sure if any of the other countries have anything significant to add.
Rugby players from the Polynesian former-colonies, and cheap UN troops from the African.  ;D
 
Journeyman said:
Rugby players from the Polynesian former-colonies, and cheap UN troops from the African.  ;D

Which brings us back to the Scottish Regiments and the Independence Movement

IMG_7030-1200x900.jpeg
 
Hmn, here's something interesting from the Bank of UK Governor Mark Carney (a former Bank of Canada Governor as some of you well know).

He has stated that "a currency union is incompatible with sovereignty."  Something that Quebecers should take note of as this would likely be the Bank of Canada's position on the matter here.
 
Kirkhill said:
Which brings us back to the Scottish Regiments and the Independence Movement

IMG_7030-1200x900.jpeg

Your photo says it all, there are no highland regiments beyond the name, the highland regiment makes it quota only by enlistments from overseas possessions.  Scots are not flocking to the colours, they are staying at home clubbing, footballing, and living off the fat of an emaciated Great Britain.  The Scots military would likely mirror the Irish military (known as the FCA or nicknamed "The Free Clothes Association").  Small token and UN dedicated. 
 
Ha! No wonder some articles mentioned how Scotland would be vulnerable to Russian invasion once they left the UK.

Defense News

NATO Says Independent Scotland Would Have To Reapply
Sep. 15, 2014 - 07:48PM | By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

BRUSSELS — NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Monday that if Scotland votes for independence this week it will have to reapply to join the military alliance.

He also insisted that Britain’s own role in NATO was not in question whatever the result of the referendum, despite uncertainty over the fate of its Scottish-based nuclear deterrent.

Rasmussen told an event hosted by the Carnegie Europe think-tank in Brussels that he was “not going to interfere with the referendum campaign in Scotland.”

But he added: “If a new independent state wants to become a member of NATO it will have to apply for membership of NATO...

(...EDITED)
 
Lightguns said:
Scots are not flocking to the colours, they are staying at home clubbing, footballing, and living off the fat of an emaciated Great Britain. 

Not to mention backpacking in, and applying to be citizens of, Australia.
 
The mainstream economic papers (e.g. The Economist and the Financial Times) have been full of dire predictions about a "Yes" vote, noting that Scotland is not, in any respect, going to be a "Northern Singapore." They are equally glum about the future of the UK(-) ... and Canada.

A "No" vote, The Economist notes will still be messy, forcing federalism onto a traditionally unitary state.

My own, personal, view is contrarian:

    First: while I agree that Scotland will suffer, mightily, from a "messy divorce," as Prime Minister Cameron puts it, Britain (England + Wales + Northern Ireland) will become stronger when the
    economic and social (socialistic) dead weight of the Scots is lifted. Scotland was a GREAT country ... in the 18th and 19th centuries. It lost its way in the 20th and I'm afraid its future looks
    a lot more like Greece than like Singapore ... it's all about socio-political philosophy; but

    Second: in the event of a "No" vote then the UK needs to move, quickly, and decisively, towards a proper federal structure which means a (vastly stripped down) federal, UK parliament in Westminster
    and highly autonomous provincial/state parliaments in Belfast, Cardiff and, say, Derby,(in the middle) or York (for tradition). This will force the Irish, Scots and Welsh to make socio-economic
    decisions with their own money, using their own tax base. Later, as necessary, the UK can explore equalization, with, hopefully, some rational thought based on what it learned from Canada's mistakes.

Will Scotland vote "Yes?" Maybe, it's possible, the way the question and voting rules are framed there is a fair chance for a "Yes," vote, but my guesses (two of 'em) are:

    1. It will be a narrow "No," vote, a vote for unity; and

    2. The UK will devolve power without responsibility to Scotland and make things worse.
 
David Cameron went up to Scotland and asked the Scots not to quit the Union just because they wanted to give "the effin Tories a kick".  The anti-Unionist vote increased....

Scots don't like to be told what to do....especially be a Scot who talks with a plum in his mouth.

Scots don't like to be condescended to....F*ck you may be permissible amongst your friends but it is not permissible in polite company and certainly is not expected from a public figure like the Prime Minister

Scots don't like Tories - In the Scotland of my childhood one of the greatest insult was "Ach! Yer mother's a Tory."

Scots are inherently conservative - they vote the way their parents did and the Labour Party and socialism in Britain arguably originated with Keir Hardie and the miners of Lanark and Ayrshire.

And lest someone points out a contradiction between conservatism and giving birth to a new social movement I would point out that my people of the Southwest have always been anti-establishment.

They have variously been Covenanters, Cameronians, Wee Free (United Free Presbyterians founded because the Presbyterians were too Episcopalian and Catholic) and Labour party supporters.  I could add Masons to the mix as well.

The other factor in this referendum is the impact of all those Fenians in the New Towns around Glasgow - all the Celtic supporters that were relocated from the Glasgow slums in the Fifties and took up Train-Spotting for a living. They were in the slums largely because my protestant brethren kept the best jobs for themselves - easy enough to do when you could detect a man's origins by his name and accent  - a skill that allowed the cognoscenti to identify which street in Glasgow you came from or which village in Ayrshire. 

The Fenians will vote against the English.  Full stop.  You can see that in the regional polls.
The Scots will continue to divide along Highland Catholic, Lowland Protestant lines with the Highlanders siding with the Fenians.
The Lowlanders will tend to vote for the Union while detesting the thought that they will have to admit anything to the English.

The outcome will be a near run thing, as Wellington described Waterloo, but ultimately I think it will be the conservatism of the Scots that results in a narrow No vote.

And if I'm wrong?  Well I've already decided the Irish make a better whisk(e)y for my dollar.

 
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