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Political impacts of Ukraine war

<Tony Soprano voice>"Nice power plants you have there - shame if anything ever happened to them ..."</Tony Soprano voice>
 
President Trump supplied Ukraine in his first term with Javelins and Stingers, something that previous administrations hadn’t done. He also sent 10thSFG into Ukraine to train the AFU, something that previous American governments hadn’t done been unwilling to do as well.

President Trump earlier this month refused to to extend the Biden Administration’s waiver on Russian fuel sales - cutting off banking options for Russian oil/gas. So no European purchasing via traditional means.

I don’t think it is enough personally and would like to see a lot more pressure on Russia, but it is hurting Russia financially.
We’ll have to see. His recent past performance (this term) on this file is not encouraging.
 
<Tony Soprano voice>"Nice power plants you have there - shame if anything ever happened to them ..."</Tony Soprano voice>
I think Trumps (mistaken IMHO) belief was that US Forces at an energy site would stop Putin from hitting it.
 
<Tony Soprano voice>"Nice power plants you have there - shame if anything ever happened to them ..."</Tony Soprano voice>
I wonder it that would include Zaporizhzia?
 
I wonder it that would include Zaporizhzia?
I'm sure POTUS47'd be able to come up with a DEAL deal with USSR 2.0 if needed, given their control of the nuke plant there ....
 
Just spotted this: one media account says POTUS47 may have meant exactly that USSR 2.0-occupied plant:
... Zelenskyy soon clarified that he and Trump “only talked about one power plant that is under Russian occupation”.
He meant the Zaporizhzhia plant in southeastern Ukraine, Europe’s largest nuclear facility that once generated a fifth of Ukraine’s electricity.

Russia occupied it in 2022, and all of its six reactors have been put into “cold shutdown” that stops energy generation and curbs the risk of an explosion.

However, Kyiv is not going to turn the Zaporizhzhia plant over to Washington.

“If they want to take it from the Russians, invest in it, modernise it, that’s another matter,” Zelenskyy told a news conference on Thursday while on a state visit to Norway. “We’re not talking about the change of ownership.” ...
 
Just spotted this: one media account says POTUS47 may have meant exactly that USSR 2.0-occupied plant:
More details on this ....
 
No worries Ukraine...Steve Witkoff has your back in the negotiations


In an interview with pro-Trump journalist Tucker Carlson, Witkoff praised Vladimir Putin, saying he "liked" the Russian president.

"I don't regard Putin as a bad guy," he said. "He's super smart."
Witkoff, who met Putin 10 days ago, said the Russian president had been "gracious" and "straight up" with him. Putin told him, he added, that he had prayed for Trump after an assassination attempt against him last year. He also said Putin had commissioned a portrait of the US president as a gift and Trump was "clearly touched by it".

During the interview, Witkoff repeated various Russian arguments, including that Ukraine was "a false country" and asked when the world would recognise occupied Ukrainian territory as Russian.

Witkoff is leading the US ceasefire negotiations with both Russia and Ukraine but he was unable to name the five regions of Ukraine either annexed or partially occupied by Russian forces.

He said: "The largest issue in that conflict are these so-called four regions, Donbas, Crimea, you know the names and there are two others."

The five regions - or oblasts - are Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea. Donbas refers to an industrial region in the east that includes much of Luhansk and Donetsk.

Witkoff made several assertions that are either not true or disputed:

  • He said Ukrainian troops in Kursk were surrounded, something denied by Ukraine's government and uncorroborated by any open-source data
  • He said the four partially occupied regions of Ukraine had held "referendums where the overwhelming majority of the people have indicated that they want to be under Russian rule". There were referendums only in some of the occupied parts of Ukraine at different times and the methodology and results were widely discredited and disputed
  • He said the four partially occupied oblasts were Russian-speaking. There are many Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine but this has never indicated support for Russia.
During his interview, Witkoff also repeated several Kremlin talking points about the cause of Russia's full-scale invasion.

He said it was "correct" that from the Russian perspective the partially occupied territories were now part of Russia: "The elephant in the room is, there are constitutional issues within Ukraine as to what they can concede to with regard to giving up territory. The Russians are de facto in control of these territories. The question is: will the world acknowledge that those are Russian territories?"

He added: "There's a sensibility in Russia that Ukraine is just a false country, that they just patched together in this sort of mosaic, these regions, and that's what is the root cause, in my opinion, of this war, that Russia regards those five regions as rightfully theirs since World War Two, and that's something nobody wants to talk about."

Putin has repeatedly said that the "root causes" of his invasion were the threat posed to Russia by an expanded Nato and the sheer existence of Ukraine as an independent country.

Witkoff said in the Tucker Carlson interview: "Why would they want to absorb Ukraine? For what purpose? They don't need to absorb Ukraine… They have reclaimed these five regions. They have Crimea and they have gotten what they want. So why do they need more?"
 
More evidence that these aren’t peace negotiations, but a sellout.

The fertilizer part is very interesting - it very well could be a way for the US to bypass CDN potash (and any tariffs we put on it) and buy directly from the Russians.
This falls into my line of thinking that the US/Trump is looking to ‘replace’ Canada with Russia for as much raw resources as they can at a much much lower cost and at the same time screw China over by taking Russia out of their sphere of influence. It ALSO screws us over because we lose unfettered access to the US market and if we pivot and start trying to replace the US with China, the US can site us as a ‘national security risk’ and move to take us out.
Our choices, join with the US and become Puerto Rico or scrap together enough trade with China (and whoever we can), but not too much to give the US a reason to move against us and annex us.
I look for Black Swan events and this is shaping up to be one.
 
The fertilizer part is very interesting - it very well could be a way for the US to bypass CDN potash (and any tariffs we put on it) and buy directly from the Russians.
This falls into my line of thinking that the US/Trump is looking to ‘replace’ Canada with Russia for as much raw resources as they can at a much much lower cost and at the same time screw China over by taking Russia out of their sphere of influence. It ALSO screws us over because we lose unfettered access to the US market and if we pivot and start trying to replace the US with China, the US can site us as a ‘national security risk’ and move to take us out.
Our choices, join with the US and become Puerto Rico or scrap together enough trade with China (and whoever we can), but not too much to give the US a reason to move against us and annex us.
I look for Black Swan events and this is shaping up to be one.
Well, Carney announced today that he doesn’t want to replace trade with the US with trade with China.


“We want to diversify with like-minded partners. That’s why I went to Europe in my first days as Prime Minister,” the Liberal Leader said during a campaign stop in Windsor, Ont., referring to a visit to Paris and London where he talked about Canadian companies playing a greater role in Europe’s military buildup.


“There are partners in Asia with whom we can build deeper ties,” Mr. Carney said. “But the partners in Asia that share our values don’t include China.”

I welcome this kind of talk.
 
Even if he can't win on the battlefield Putin is still trying to secure the end of Ukraine as an independent nation


Vladimir Putin has suggested that Ukraine should temporarily be placed under UN control to elect what he called a more "competent" government.

It is the latest attempt by the Russian president to challenge the legitimacy of the Kyiv government.
Speaking to the crew of a nuclear-powered submarine in the far north Russian city of Murmansk, Putin said a temporary administration under the auspices of the UN could be discussed "with the United States, with European countries, and of course with our partners and friends".

"This would be in order to hold democratic elections, to bring to power a capable government trusted by the people and then to begin with it talks on a peace agreement and sign legitimate documents," he added.

Moscow says the current Ukrainian authorities are illegitimate as President Volodymyr Zelensky has stayed in power beyond the end of his term and is therefore not a valid negotiating partner.

But Zelensky has stayed because elections have been put on hold, legally by martial law and practically by the chaos of war.
By calling for an election, Putin is trying to raise doubts that President Zelensky is a legitimate interlocutor in any peace talks. The White House has already echoed this narrative.
 
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