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Justin Trudeau hints at boosting Canada’s military spending

Justin Trudeau hints at boosting Canada’s military spending

Canada says it will look at increasing its defence spending and tacked on 10 more Russian names to an ever growing sanctions list.

By Tonda MacCharles
Ottawa Bureau
Mon., March 7, 2022

Riga, LATVIA—On the 13th day of the brutal Russian bid to claim Ukraine as its own, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is showing up at the Latvian battle group led by Canadian soldiers, waving the Maple Leaf and a vague hint at more money for the military.

Canada has been waving the NATO flag for nearly seven years in Latvia as a bulwark against Russia’s further incursions in Eastern Europe.

Canada stepped up to lead one of NATO’s four battle groups in 2015 — part of the defensive alliance’s display of strength and solidarity with weaker member states after Russia invaded Ukraine and seized the Crimean peninsula in 2014. Trudeau arrived in the Latvian capital late Monday after meetings in the U.K. with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

Earlier Monday, faced with a seemingly unstoppable war in Ukraine, Trudeau said he will look at increasing Canada’s defence spending. Given world events, he said there are “certainly reflections to have.”

And Canada tacked on 10 more Russian names to an ever-growing sanctions list.

The latest round of sanctions includes names Trudeau said were identified by jailed Russian opposition leader and Putin nemesis Alexei Navalny.

However, on a day when Trudeau cited the new sanctions, and Johnson touted new measures meant to expose Russian property owners in his country, Rutte admitted sanctions are not working.

Yet they all called for more concerted international efforts over the long haul, including more economic measures and more humanitarian aid, with Johnson and Rutte divided over how quickly countries need to get off Russian oil and gas.

The 10 latest names on Canada’s target list do not include Roman Abramovich — a Russian billionaire Navalny has been flagging to Canada since at least 2017. Canada appears to have sanctioned about 20 of the 35 names on Navalny’s list.

The Conservative opposition says the Liberal government is not yet exerting maximum pressure on Putin, and should do more to bolster Canadian Forces, including by finally approving the purchase of fighter jets.

Foreign affairs critic Michael Chong said in an interview that Ottawa must still sanction “additional oligarchs close to President Putin who have significant assets in Canada.”

Abramovich owns more than a quarter of the public shares in steelmaking giant Evraz, which has operations in Alberta and Saskatchewan and has supplied most of the steel for the government-owned Trans Mountain pipeline project.

Evraz’s board of directors also includes two more Russians the U.S. government identified as “oligarchs” in 2019 — Aleksandr Abramov and Aleksandr Frolov — and its Canadian operations have received significant support from the federal government.

That includes at least $27 million in emergency wage subsidies during the pandemic, as well as $7 million through a fund meant to help heavy-polluters reduce emissions that cause climate change, according to the company’s most recent annual report.

In addition to upping defence spending, the Conservatives want NORAD’s early warning system upgraded, naval shipbuilding ramped up and Arctic security bolstered.

In London, Johnson sat down with Trudeau and Rutte at the Northolt airbase. Their morning meetings had a rushed feel, with Johnson starting to usher press out before Trudeau spoke. His office said later that the British PM couldn’t squeeze the full meeting in at 10 Downing Street because Johnson’s “diary” was so busy that day. The three leaders held an afternoon news conference at 10 Downing.

But before that Trudeau met with the Queen, saying she was “insightful” and they had a “useful, for me anyway, conversation about global affairs.”

Trudeau meets with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg Tuesday in Latvia.

The prime minister will also meet with three Baltic leaders, the prime ministers of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, in the Latvian capital of Riga.

The Liberals announced they would increase the 500 Canadian Forces in Latvia by another 460 troops. The Canadians are leading a multinational battle group, one of four that are part of NATO’s deployments in the region.

Another 3,400 Canadians could be deployed to the region in the months to come, on standby for NATO orders.

But Canada’s shipments of lethal aid to Ukraine were slow to come in the view of the Conservatives, and the Ukrainian Canadian community.

And suddenly Western allies are eyeing each other’s defence commitments.

At the Downing Street news conference, Rutte noted the Netherlands will increase its defence budget to close to two per cent of GDP. Germany has led the G7, and doubled its defence budget in the face of Putin’s invasion and threats. Johnson said the U.K. defence spending is about 2.4 per cent and declined to comment on Canada’s defence spending which is 1.4 per cent of GDP.

But Johnson didn’t hold back.

“What we can’t do, post the invasion of Ukraine is assume that we go back to a kind of status quo ante, a kind of new normalization in the way that we did after the … seizure of Crimea and the Donbas area,” Johnson said. “We’ve got to recognize that things have changed and that we need a new focus on security and I think that that is kind of increasingly understood by everybody.”

Trudeau stood by his British and Dutch counterparts and pledged Canada would do more.

He defended his government’s record, saying Ottawa is gradually increasing spending over the next decade by 70 per cent. Then Trudeau admitted more might be necessary.

“We also recognize that context is changing rapidly around the world and we need to make sure that women and men have certainty and our forces have all the equipment necessary to be able to stand strongly as we always have. As members of NATO. We will continue to look at what more we can do.”

The three leaders — Johnson, a conservative and Trudeau and Rutte, progressive liberals — in a joint statement said they “will continue to impose severe costs on Russia.”

Arriving for the news conference from Windsor Castle, Trudeau had to detour to enter Downing Street as loud so-called Freedom Convoy protesters bellowed from outside the gate. They carried signs marked “Tuck Frudeau” and “Free Tamara” (Lich).

Protester Jeff Wyatt who said he has no Canadian ties told the Star he came to stand up for Lich and others who were leading a “peaceful protest” worldwide against government “lies” about COVID-19 and what he called Trudeau’s “tyranny.”

Elsewhere in London, outside the Russian embassy, other protesters and passersby reflected on what they said was real tyranny — the Russian attack on Ukraine. “I think we should be as tough as possible to get this stopped, as tough as possible,” said protester Clive Martinez.
 
We currently have 6 x LAV battalions at 65-67% of full pers levels. That means you basically have 6 x Battalions of vehicles but only 4 x Battalions of personnel.
Take into account VOR and I bet it is less than 6 x Bn of vehs. Plus you need repl vehs in Theatre for battle cas, accidents and VOR. Add spare parts depot also.
 
Take into account VOR and I bet it is less than 6 x Bn of vehs. Plus you need repl vehs in Theatre for battle cas, accidents and VOR. Add spare parts depot also.
The last OS VOR rates I saw for the LAV fleet suggests that one probably can’t field much more than 2 LAV BN’s.

So you have 4 LAV Bn with if troops for 2 BN’s of serviceable vehicles.
 
The last OS VOR rates I saw for the LAV fleet suggests that one probably can’t field much more than 2 LAV BN’s.

So you have 4 LAV Bn with if troops for 2 BN’s of serviceable vehicles.
That would be my guess as well. Gotta remember LAVs are also distributed to Arty, Engrs and the Armd Corps now as well, with the retirement of the Coyote.

The Armd Corps fleet is a complete mess tbh.
 
The last OS VOR rates I saw for the LAV fleet suggests that one probably can’t field much more than 2 LAV BN’s.

So you have 4 LAV Bn with if troops for 2 BN’s of serviceable vehicles.

So why not 3 brigades, each with one LAV battalion and two light battalions?
 
So why not 3 brigades, each with one LAV battalion and two light battalions?
Why not one Mech Bde and 2 Light? Or 3 Light Reg Bde’s with a Bde of Cavalry vehicles that the Light units can use as needed.
 
Take into account VOR and I bet it is less than 6 x Bn of vehs. Plus you need repl vehs in Theatre for battle cas, accidents and VOR. Add spare parts depot also.

From a previous posting

1703188870693.png

1703188942347.png


82 Tanks with 21% serviceable = 17 tanks
555 LAV 6 with 58% serviceable = 322 LAV 6
500 TAPV with 48% serviceable = 240 TAPV

The expectation seems to be that we need 390 LAV 6s to field 6 LAV 6 Battlegroups at 70% strength (2/3)
Or
We could field 4 LAV 6 Battalions at 100% if we had 390 LAV6s

But we only have 322 runners.
That means 233 in the shop.

In addition the institution eats up 555-390 = 165
So assuming that the institution gets first dibs on the 322 runners that leaves 157 runners for the three field formations.

From the table above the expectation is that a Brigade (each of the Divisions listed only has one Brigade) requires 130 LAV 6.

Net effect - the field army can only field two LAV 6 Battle Groups with enough left over for a Company Combat Team.

And if there are only 17 serviceable MBTs and the institutions require 22 that doesn't leave much left for deployment - not to mention training would be challenging.
 
From a previous posting

View attachment 81930

View attachment 81931


82 Tanks with 21% serviceable = 17 tanks
555 LAV 6 with 58% serviceable = 322 LAV 6
500 TAPV with 48% serviceable = 240 TAPV

The expectation seems to be that we need 390 LAV 6s to field 6 LAV 6 Battlegroups at 70% strength (2/3)
Or
We could field 4 LAV 6 Battalions at 100% if we had 390 LAV6s

But we only have 322 runners.
That means 233 in the shop.

In addition the institution eats up 555-390 = 165
So assuming that the institution gets first dibs on the 322 runners that leaves 157 runners for the three field formations.

From the table above the expectation is that a Brigade (each of the Divisions listed only has one Brigade) requires 130 LAV 6.

Net effect - the field army can only field two LAV 6 Battle Groups with enough left over for a Company Combat Team.

And if there are only 17 serviceable MBTs and the institutions require 22 that doesn't leave much left for deployment - not to mention training would be challenging.
Also that doesn’t even count wartime establishment.
 
@KevinB

You're right

390 for 4 battalions at 100% or 98 per battalion battle group.

157 runners

1 Battle Group with 59 extras - Make it a Battle Group and a Battle Group (-).

Edit: Of course the first 4 of 360 ACSVs were delivered on Halloween.
 
From a previous posting

View attachment 81930

View attachment 81931


82 Tanks with 21% serviceable = 17 tanks
555 LAV 6 with 58% serviceable = 322 LAV 6
500 TAPV with 48% serviceable = 240 TAPV

The expectation seems to be that we need 390 LAV 6s to field 6 LAV 6 Battlegroups at 70% strength (2/3)
Or
We could field 4 LAV 6 Battalions at 100% if we had 390 LAV6s

But we only have 322 runners.
That means 233 in the shop.

In addition the institution eats up 555-390 = 165
So assuming that the institution gets first dibs on the 322 runners that leaves 157 runners for the three field formations.

From the table above the expectation is that a Brigade (each of the Divisions listed only has one Brigade) requires 130 LAV 6.

Net effect - the field army can only field two LAV 6 Battle Groups with enough left over for a Company Combat Team.

And if there are only 17 serviceable MBTs and the institutions require 22 that doesn't leave much left for deployment - not to mention training would be challenging.
How many real deployable CMBG are really deployable with a Tac and a main HQ? I think that we can’t deploy more than BG.
 
How many real deployable CMBG are really deployable with a Tac and a main HQ? I think that we can’t deploy more than BG.
I suspect 3, and perhaps 4 if 6CSBG is included. That being the regular force.

Now if you want them with modern C6ISR, my answer would be different;)
 
I suspect 3, and perhaps 4 if 6CSBG is included. That being the regular force.

Now if you want them with modern C6ISR, my answer would be different;)
Well, I suppose the question answer the question 🙃
 
Just a word of caution about using the G4 Maint VOR Stats from that JCSP paper or any other domestic report on VOR should be taken with a grain of salt. 1) It is a snapshot in time and more importantly 2)domestically there are a ton of reasons why a vehicle is VOR'd where it would just be outstanding usable in any operational theater. A broken/missing mirror or headlight domestically can be a grounding fault (outside of a training area) as it is a safety issue. Bit of an extreme example but VOR'd doesn't always mean can't run/gun.

Don't get me wrong there are lots of broken vehicles but for outsiders looking in making literal interpretations it could look like the sky is falling when in reality it is just low cloud cover.
 
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Just a word of caution about using the G4 Maint VOR Stats from that JCSP paper or any other domestic report on VOR should be taken with a grain of salt. 1) It is a snapshot in time and more importantly 2)domestically there are a ton of reasons why a vehicle is VOR'd where it would just be outstanding usable in any operational theater. A broken/missing mirror or headlight domestically can be a grounding fault (outside of a training area) as it is a safety issue. Bit of an extreme example but VOR'd doesn't always mean can't run/gun.

Don't get me wrong there are lots of broken vehicles but for outsiders looking in making literal interpretations it could look like the sky is falling when in reality it is just low cloud cover.
Also how many vehicles are VOR because, due to just in time delivery, we gotta wait for a part to be made and shipped to us.
 
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