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Ali_Khl said:Hi Guys,
Firstly, although many outsiders believe the opposite, Iran currently operates quite a few more than '3 or 5' F14A Tomcats, with a fairly accurate number at 60 in Inventory, with the number currently in flight not too far off from that figure. This is due to Iran fairly rapidly moving onto self-sufficeny in terms of the Military items that were sold to the nation in the Shah's time, prior to 1979. These are very much fully operational birds here, not deteriorating or without supplies as many outside sources claim (ie. places like Cia.org, and such) - some 90% of the fuselage is currently produced domestically, with the parts excluded the fairly durable but hard to manufacture Titanium structural body components. Together with this the Armed Guard devision also flies a fleet of about 35 SU25 jets, as well as the Airforce also running the Mig 29 (including the nice looking UB) force consisting of some 30-35 planes or so, as well as the fleet of F4 Phantoms and F5Es that were sold by the US previously. Oh, and there are also some 25 or so Mirage F1s, but I will not go into those now. For further information on the 'AliCats' do visit the ACIG Forums or IIAF (Iran Imperial Air Force) forums, with the former discussing about the current IRIAF fleet despite its name being related to the previous Air Force under the Shah. Tom Cooper of ACIG is a very knoweldgable expert on Middle East Military affairs and he has written two books on both the F14 and F4s of Iran, as well as some very informative articles that are definetly worth a read if the above sounds interesting.
Iranian domestic industries also currently manufacture a full set of set parts for at least some 100 operational AH1J Helicopters under the name of HESA, with various upgrades already undertaken, including updated display units, radar and surface to ground capabilities of up to 4km or so. It in fact looks like quite an interesting upgrade program, with the canopy changed too - further pictures can be found through google searches of the aformentioned sites.
There are also quite a few more domestic Military industry developments, including the creation of a localy designed supersonic fighter, the Shafagh, although this is at supposed prototype and testing stage. I wont bore you with any more, but these are just hints that Iran is not quite the incapable Iraq resistance that the United States defeated in their campaign.
Impressive on Paper Ali, and noone would dispute the fact the Iran and Syria both have large armies. But they would be little match for the amount of Air Power the Colalition could bring to the table. Especially if they were able to use air bases in Iraq.
Without doubt, however, the United States is the superior force in terms of Military might, but with a young population of over 75 million, some very mountanous and difficult terrain (being much larger than Iraq included) i feel that a campaign against Iran wouldent be something beneficial to both the United State's security, finiancial deficit and domestic support as well as the Middle East's worsening instability. Nationalism ranks very high with Iranians so i feel that an attack, even a limited one on the Nuclear Instalations, would do more worse than good as I am certain it will arouse feelings against the United States and prohibit social change furthermore, especially so with the persisting campaign in our neighbors Iraq.
Cheers,
Ali Khalili
Ali we do not question the size of Irans army only its capability against a western superpower. But i think the big questions is why would it come to this. If it was proven like a_majoor pointed out that Iran or even Syria was sheltering, hidding, arming, or paying for insurgents and sponsering their campagin to disrupt Iraq and kill the citizens then a toll must be paid.
If it can be proven (by this i mean more then just an intellegence report) that Senior Iraqi Baathists are in Syria or Iran and have the WMD and are helping with either nation to develop arms to attack the coalition then paying the piper should not be unexpected.
You are right no campagin would be an easy or a chosen one without futher support such as India or Pakistan. But If it came down to it you would prob see two months of air war and then a ground assault. As Intellegence was gathered in the Mounatins such as Special Ops teams being deployed throught the areas on shearch and destroy missions.
my thought only
I do hope it does not come down to that but with Russia now revertaing back to the old USSR ways of doing things. Supplying arms to the middle east admist a crisis with the west. Putin solidifying his power by fixing elections or eliminating oponents. I think we in the West should prepare ourselfs for an uncomfortable 5 to 6 yrs to come.