Hamas invaded Israel 2023

[Infanteer]

It wasn't until Azerbaijan and Ukraine that it has come to be seen as a viable peer-on-peer tactic. In 2017 is was more of a propaganda effort. Pinpricks.

You sure about that?

 

[Kirkhill]

....

Yes, he has. Much later than PP and JT, though.

Really?

Jag at 9:15
Pierre at 9:25
Justin at 9:50

Or am I missing something?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1710675281277579461

View attachment 80526
View attachment 80527

 

[Kirkhill]

You sure about that?

No. Personal perception. YMMV.

 

[TacticalTea]

Or am I missing something?

Yep. Timezones.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Can’t find the primary source for this, but we should expect Israel to go to full mobilization if they haven’t already.
Also, it appears Hamas has captured a company’s worth of Merkava (akzarit?) converted into APC, having over run a base and killing/capturing the entire unit who were sleeping.

https://x.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1710689546164183425?s=20

 

[Kirkhill]

Yep. Timezones.

Seen. Sorry.

 

[Infanteer]

No. Personal perception. YMMV.

Peer-on-Peer isn't much of a factor when we are talking about steering a cheap UAS into a vehicle. You can either do it or you can't.

ISIS was employing this capability extensively 5 years before Nagarno-Karabakh or Ukraine revealed the "Secrets of Future War." These featured prominently in the battle of Mosul and Syria, until recently, was the proving ground for UAS and CUAS capabilties.

 

[Kirkhill]

Peer-on-Peer isn't much of a factor when we are talking about steering a cheap UAS into a vehicle. You can either do it or you can't.

ISIS was employing this capability extensively 5 years before Nagarno-Karabakh or Ukraine revealed the "Secrets of Future War." These featured prominently in the battle of Mosul and Syria, until recently, was the proving ground for UAS and CUAS capabilties.

Was anybody seriously contemplating it having a major effect on operations once tanks, howitzers and cruise missiles were deployed?

I agree that once it is done then any one can do it but it seems to me that it takes a particular set of circumstances before anybody in any period decides to bet heavily on novelty.

 

[Infanteer]

Are they having a major effect on Israeli operations right now, or are we taking one curated video for more than it actually is?

 

[Retired AF Guy]

More on that from the Beeb:


"We have no idea how this could have happened."

That is the reaction Israeli officials have been giving today when I ask them how, with all its vast resources, Israeli intelligence did not see this attack coming.

Dozens of armed Palestinian gunmen were able to cross the heavily fortified border between Israel and the Gaza Strip, while thousands of rockets were fired from Gaza into Israel.

With the combined efforts of Shin Bet, Israeli domestic intelligence, Mossad, its external spy agency and all the assets of the Israel Defense Forces, it is frankly astounding that nobody saw this coming.

Or if they did, they failed to act on it.
Israel has arguably the most extensive and well-funded intelligence services in the Middle East.

How did Israeli intelligence fail to stop major attack from Gaza?

Israeli officials tell BBC an investigation into Gaza's surprise attack will go on for years.

www.bbc.com

Plus CIA, DIA, NSA, MI6, GCHQ, etc.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I would not be surprised if some low level staffer was raising the alarm and was ignored.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Considering Israel has really been provoking them recently with their settlers what do you expect them to do?

People have the right to self defence. From what I have been seeing for the last couple years is a increasingly aggressive Israel attacking, brutalizing, harassing, and forcibly driving locals from their homes so the Israelis can build overtop of them. Mainly using the settlers themselves to do it and backing them up with the military should anything go south.

If I was a Palestinian in those areas I would want blood as well.

True, the settlers have been running roughshod over the local Palestinians, and apparently the head of Hamas' military wing has used it as one of the justifications for the attack. But, having said that, that doesn't justify HAMAS fighters gunning down unarmed civilians.

 

[gryphonv]

True, the settlers have been running roughshod over the local Palestinians, and apparently the head of Hamas' military wing has used it as one of the justifications for the attack. But, having said that, that doesn't justify HAMAS fighters gunning down unarmed civilians.

It's all a clusterfuck. I think most will agree that Israel isn't perfect and sometimes does things that we don't like and should be condemned for it. But when Hamas targets civilians as their main target it don't win them any friends.

 

[Brad Sallows]

True, the settlers have been running roughshod over the local Palestinians, and apparently the head of Hamas' military wing has used it as one of the justifications for the attack.

Jus ad bellum.

But, having said that, that doesn't justify HAMAS fighters gunning down unarmed civilians.

Jus in bello.

Watch for people who try to use the circumstances of the first to excuse the conduct of the second; call them out.

 

[Kirkhill]

Are they having a major effect on Israeli operations right now, or are we taking one curated video for more than it actually is?

I don't know if the apparent successes of UAVs in the Caucasus and Ukraine prompted the Palestinian incursion. I can't say that. I do think that once something new enters the scene and appears to enjoy success then everyone is likely to start giving it a try.

As to what prompted the incursion? More likely to be, as others have identified, actors like Iran, Russia, China, North Korea ...

 

[Kirkhill]

It's all a clusterfuck. ..

And has been since the days of Enki and the Sag-gi-ga. Would that they had confined themselves to ploughing moist furrows.

 

[TacticalTea]

Statement from the President.

 

[suffolkowner]

Armenia-Azerbaijan
Serbia-Kosovo
Mali,Nigeria-Ecowas, Sudan
Israel-Hamas
Russia-Ukraine
Seems like a great time to shrink the Canadian defence budget/s

Has there been any reports of things going on in the West Bank or is this primarily a Gaza thing with a sprinkling of Lebanon?

from the Israeli perspective it must be hard to justify allowing Gaza to remain but 2 million is a lot of people to deal with. They should have partitioned a part of the Sinai off instead of giving it all back to Egypt. Would have been a win for Egypt too as they could have said look what we have accomplished for the Palestinians instead of the Arab pariah they were for a few year having made peace with Israel

 

[Jarnhamar]

Time for Hamas to play FAFO

 

[Booter]

I would not be surprised if some low level staffer was raising the alarm and was ignored.

Or there is security fatigue because of the overwhelming amount of stuff they get constantly

Maybe both