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Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail, is an interesting report:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/imf-shines-a-light-on-chinas-rising-star/article1227772/
MF shines a light on China's rising star
Toned-down criticism a recognition lecturing, bullying was having little effect

Kevin Carmichael

Ottawa — Thursday, Jul. 23, 2009 

There's a new way to measure China's rising clout: A sudden reluctance to criticize its currency policy.

The International Monetary Fund's board of directors Wednesday released a report on China's economy notable for its lack of decisive criticism.

Rather than make accusations of currency manipulation, the report allowed a split opinion.

It noted that “some directors” are of the view that China's currency, the yuan, is “substantially undervalued” while “a number of other directors” accept that it's difficult to make accurate assessments of proper foreign exchange rates.

The wording is significant because the IMF prefers consensus. Compromise was necessary to get China to remove a veto over the release of the fund's annual review of its economy, which it has enforced since 2007 to protest a change in the way the IMF assesses exchange rates. The report signals countries such as the U.S., Britain and Germany have given up their long-standing effort to put the institutional weight of the IMF behind their contention China holds down the value of its currency to give its exporters an unfair trade advantage.

“Directors welcomed the important progress made in the past few years in increasing the market's role in determining the exchange rate,” the report states.

The report goes on to note “the consequent substantial real appreciation that has been achieved since the exchange rate reform in 2005.”

China's holdings of foreign currency reserves climbed above $2-trillion (U.S.) this year, a reflection of the government's efforts to control the value of the yuan.

Under pressure from the United States, Chinese authorities loosened the yuan's peg to the U.S. dollar in 2005 and allowed the currency to edge higher.

The financial crisis has dampened enthusiasm in China for a more-flexible exchange rate. The IMF review noted that the nominal exchange rate of the yuan hasn't risen against the dollar since the middle of 2008.

The Chinese currency, which traded at 6.83 yuan to the U.S. dollar Wednesday, should be 15 per cent to 25 per cent higher against major currencies after adjusting for inflation, according to Morris Goldstein and Nicholas Lardy, economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven major industrial countries also have toned down their criticism of China, choosing to highlight the country's progress in adopting more market-oriented policies.

The shift is a result of a growing desire on the part of the world's economic powers to coax China into playing a greater role in international affairs, recognizing that the previous strategy of lecturing and bullying was having little effect.

Mr. Hu's government has the world's third-largest economy on track to grow 7.5 per cent in 2009, even though almost all of the world's developed economies are in recession.

Economic success is creating a boldness that is causing the Chinese regime to stand up to criticism and take a more assertive stand on policy issues.

“The Chinese felt they were being ganged up on,” said Bessma Momani, a senior fellow at the Waterloo, Ont.-based Centre for International Governance Innovation, of the country's reaction to the debate over the valuation of its currency.

As a result of China's success in fighting the global recession, “there's a feeling that they are vindicated,” said Ms. Momani, who is writing a book on the history of the IMF. “They are in a higher position.”

The IMF's 24-member board of directors commended China for its $585-billion stimulus program, and said the government's debt was low enough to do more to boost private consumption.

The board did nudge China's government to move away from its dependence on exports, saying any short-term job losses would eventually be replenished by a stronger services industry.


The Chinese appear to have made the right choices over the past few months and they want some credit, in the halls of the mighty, for doing more than their “fair share” to help us all dig out of the Euro-American fiscal fiasco.

The IMF board is, undoubtedly, correct to encourage China to focus less on exports and to build its service sector but they have to understand that the overarching goal for China is to maintain social harmony and that means maintaining the jobs they have and creating lots and lots of new ones. The process, for the Chinese, has to be slowing the growth of their export business while they, more slowly than they might like, build a service sector.

 
More updates on both cross-strait relations as well as another China initiative:

Agence France-Presse - 7/25/2009 5:30 AM GMT
Taiwan, China to talk trade in October: report
Taiwan and China will begin negotiations on a comprehensive trade pact in October, in a further step towards closer economic ties between the two neighbours, a report here said Saturday.

Vice trade ministers from both sides will head the negotiations for the economic cooperation framework agreement, or ECFA, the China Times reported, quoting Taiwanese economic minister Yiin Chii-ming.

Yiin, who met his Chinese counterpart Chen Deming during last week's APEC conference in Singapore, said Beijing was keen to push for the pact, similar in scope to a free-trade agreement, the report said.

The two sides will aim to conclude discussions by the end of the year so that an agreement may be ready for signing at an upcoming meeting between their top envoys -- Taiwan's Chiang Pin-kung and Chen Yunlin of China, it said.

The two are expected to meet in Taiwan later this year, following talks in April which led to agreements on expanding air links and promoting mainland Chinese investment on the island.

Taiwan's government is counting on the pact to help free the flow of goods and personnel and to help it tackle recession, but critics warn against the island becoming overly dependent on its giant neighbour.


China and Taiwan split in 1949 after a civil war, but Beijing still sees the island as part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary.

Relations have improved dramatically since Beijing-friendly President Ma Ying-jeou took office last year.

Agence France-Presse - 7/25/2009 6:02 AM GMT
China launches Arabic international TV channel
China Saturday launched an international Arabic-language television channel as part of an ambitious programme to promote the communist country's views abroad.

State-run China Central Television (CCTV) said the new service would broadcast news, entertainment and education programmes 24 hours a day to a potential audience of about 300 million people in 22 countries.

CCTV vice-president Zhang Changming said in a statement the channel "would serve as an important bridge to strengthen communication and understanding between China and the Arab countries."


The network, which already broadcasts in English, French and Spanish, also has plans for a Russian-language service.

CCTV began work last September on launching its new Arabic channel.

The satellite channel can be received across the Middle East, North Africa and in the Asia-Pacific region, the statement said.

The move is part of an ambitious programme of international expansion by the state-controlled media to promote the image of China abroad. Xinhua news agency, which already reports from more than 100 countries and territories, also plans to open more foreign bureaus.

"We must increase our broadcasting capacity to positively influence international public opinion and to give an good image of our nation," propaganda chief Wang Chen declared in January, as quoted by Xinhua.

Hong Kong daily the South China Morning Post has reported that Beijing was prepared to put 45 billion yuan (6.6 billion dollars) into the development of its media, an amount which could not be confirmed by Chinese sources.

Beijing has complained about "biased" coverage of China by foreign media but strictly controls its own media.

 
Another update:

Obama: US-China relations to shape 21st century

July 27, 2009
Associated Press


WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama said Monday that the relationship between the United States and China will shape the history of the 21st century.

Obama, speaking at the start of two days of high-level talks between the two nations, said that Washington and Beijing needed to forge closer ties to address a host of challenges from lifting the global economy out of a deep recession to nuclear proliferation.

"I believe that we are poised to make steady progress on some of the most important issues of our times," the president told diplomats from both countries.

Obama said he was under "no illusions that the United States and China will agree on every issue" but he said closer cooperation in important areas was critical for the world.

The discussions in Washington represent the continuation of a dialogue begun by the Bush administration, which focused on economic tensions between the two nations. Obama chose to expand the talks to include foreign policy issues as well as economic disputes.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, welcoming the Chinese, said the two nations were "laying brick by brick the foundation for a stronger relationship."

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Vice Premier Wang Qishan, China's top economic policymaker, both spoke of hopeful signs that the global economy was beginning to emerge from its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

Geithner said that the so far successful efforts of the two economic superpowers to move quickly to deal with the downturns with massive stimulus programs marked a historic turning point in the relationship of the two nations.

Speaking through a translator, Wang said that "at present the world economy is at a critical moment of moving out of crisis and toward recovery."

State Councilor Dai Bingguo said that the two countries were trying to build better relations despite their very different social systems, cultures, ideologies and histories.

"We are actually all in the same big boat that has been hit by fierce wind and huge waves," Dai said of the global economic and other crises.


http: //news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090727/ap_on_bi_ge/us_china_talks
 
On one hand we have the prediction that China will overtake the US economically by 2050 and rule the world, and on the other naysayers claiming "China will grow old before it becomes rich" and everything in between. There is another possibility: the rug will be pulled out from under them resulting in massive global instability (stuff to keep you awake at night):

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/07/23/the_china_bubbles_coming_but_not_the_one_you_think

The China Bubble's Coming -- But Not the One You Think
Forget about a Shanghai stock bubble. The whole Chinese economy's getting ready to burst.

BY VITALIY KATSENELSON | JULY 23, 2009

Financial commentators are obsessively debating whether the recent rise in the Chinese stock market means there's a bubble -- and if so, when it's going to burst.

My take? Who cares! What happens to the broader Chinese economy is what we should really be watching. It will have a far-reaching impact on the rest of the world -- much more far-reaching than a decline in stocks.

Despite everything, the Chinese economy has shown incredible resilience recently. Although its biggest customers -- the United States and Europe -- are struggling (to say the least) and its exports are down more than 20 percent, China is still spitting out economic growth numbers as if there weren't a worry in the world. The most recent estimate put annual growth at nearly 8 percent.

Is the Chinese economy operating in a different economic reality?  Will it continue to grow, no matter what the global economy is doing?

The answer to both questions is no. China's fortunes over the past decade are reminiscent of Lucent Technologies in the 1990s. Lucent sold computer equipment to dot-coms. At first, its growth was natural, the result of selling goods to traditional, cash-generating companies. After opportunities with cash-generating customers dried out, it moved to start-ups -- and its growth became slightly artificial. These dot-coms were able to buy Lucent's equipment only by raising money through private equity and equity markets, since their business models didn't factor in the necessity of cash-flow generation.

Funds to buy Lucent's equipment quickly dried up, and its growth should have decelerated or declined. Instead, Lucent offered its own financing to dot-coms by borrowing and lending money on the cheap to finance the purchase of its own equipment. This worked well enough, until it came time to pay back the loans.

The United States, of course, isn't a dot-com. But a great portion of its growth came from borrowing Chinese money to buy Chinese goods, which means that Chinese growth was dependent on that very same borrowing.

Now the United States and the rest of the world is retrenching, corporations are slashing their spending, and consumers are closing their pocket books. This means that the consumption of Chinese goods is on the decline. And this is where the dot-com analogy breaks down. Unlike Lucent, China has nuclear weapons. It can print money at will and can simply order its banks to lend. It is a communist command economy, after all. Lucent is now a $2 stock. China won't go down that easily.

The Chinese central bank has a significant advantage over the U.S. Federal Reserve. Chairman Ben Bernanke and his cohort may print a lot of money (and they did), but there's almost nothing they can do to speed the velocity of money. They simply cannot force banks to lend without nationalizing them (and only the government-sponsored enterprises have been nationalized). They also cannot force corporations and consumers to spend. Since China isn't a democracy, it doesn't suffer these problems.

China's communist government owns a large part of the money-creation and money-spending apparatus. Money supply therefore shot up 28.5 percent in June. Since it controls the banks, it can force them to lend, which it has also done.

Finally, China can force government-owned corporate entities to borrow and spend, and spend quickly itself. This isn't some slow-moving, touchy-feely democracy. If the Chinese government decides to build a highway, it simply draws a straight line on the map. Any obstacle -- like a hospital, a school, or a Politburo member's house -- can become a casualty of the greater good. (Okay -- maybe not the Politburo member's house).

Although China can't control consumer spending, the consumer is a comparatively small part of its economy. Plus, currency control diminishes the consumer's buying power. All of this makes the United States' TARP plans look like child's play. If China wants to stimulate the economy, it does so -- and fast. That's why the country is producing such robust economic numbers.

Why is China doing this? It doesn't have the kind of social safety net one sees in the developed world, so it needs to keep its economy going at any cost. Millions of people have migrated to its cities, and now they're hungry and unemployed. People without food or work tend to riot. To keep that from happening, the government is more than willing to artificially stimulate the economy, in the hopes of buying time until the global system stabilizes. It's literally forcing banks to lend -- which will create a huge pile of horrible loans on top of the ones they've originated over the last decade.

But don't confuse fast growth with sustainable growth. Much of China's growth over the past decade has come from lending to the United States. The country suffers from real overcapacity. And now growth comes from borrowing -- and hundreds of billion-dollar decisions made on the fly don't inspire a lot of confidence. For example, a nearly completed, 13-story building in Shanghai collapsed in June due to the poor quality of its construction.

This growth will result in a huge pile of bad debt -- as forced lending is bad lending. The list of negative consequences is very long, but the bottom line is simple: There is no miracle in the Chinese miracle growth, and China will pay a price. The only question is when and how much.

Another casualty of what's taking place in China is the U.S. interest rate. China sold goods to the United States and received dollars in exchange. If China were to follow the natural order of things, it would have converted those dollars to renminbi (that is, sell dollars and buy renminbi). The dollar would have declined and renminbi would have risen. But this would have made Chinese goods more expensive in dollars -- making Chinese products less price-competitive. China would have exported less, and its economy would have grown at a much slower rate.

But China chose a different route. Instead of exchanging dollars back into renminbi and thus driving the dollar down and the renminbi up -- the natural order of things -- China parked its money in the dollar by buying Treasurys. It artificially propped up the dollar. And now, China is sitting on 2.2 trillion of them.

Now, China needs to stimulate its economy. It's facing a very delicate situation indeed: It needs the money internally to finance its continued growth. However, if it were to sell dollar-denominated treasuries, several bad things would happen. Its currency would skyrocket -- meaning the loss of its competitive low-cost-producer edge. Or, U.S. interest rates would go up dramatically -- not good for its biggest customer, and therefore not good for China.

This is why China is desperately trying to figure out how to withdraw its funds from the dollar without driving it down -- not an easy feat.

And the U.S. government isn't helping: It's printing money and issuing Treasurys at a fast clip, and needs somebody to keep buying them. If China reduces or halts its buying, the United States may be looking at high interest rates, with or without inflation. (The latter scenario is most worrying.)

All in all, this spells trouble -- a big, big Chinese bubble. Identifying such bubbles is a lot easier than timing their collapse. But as we've recently learned, you can defy the laws of financial gravity for only so long. Put simply, mean reversion is a bitch. And the longer excesses persist, the harder the financial gravity will bring China's economy back to Earth.
 
Hmm. Obviously any extremely severe economic stability might threaten the CCP's hold on power and its "mandate of heaven" which should rightly be called "mandate of the people"/popular legitimacy.

And here's another update regarding the Uighurs:

Agence France-Presse - 7/27/2009 7:44 AM GMT
Uighur premiere a sell-out in Australia
The premiere of a documentary about a Uighur activist that Chinese officials tried to have pulled from Australia's biggest film festival was a sell-out success, organisers said Monday.

The Melbourne International Film Festival called in security guards for Sunday night's premiere of "Ten Conditions of Love" fearing trouble amid Chinese anger over the film about exiled Uighur leader Rebiya Kadeer.

Festival director Richard Moore has accused Chinese officials of trying to bully him into pulling the documentary, while Chinese directors have withdrawn their films in protest and hackers have attacked the festival website.

Event spokeswoman Louise Heseltine said the website remained partially disabled Monday because of the cyber-attacks, in which hackers replaced information with the Chinese flag and left anti-Kadeer slogans.

But she said the screening at a city centre cinema was peaceful and the audience response was positive.

"No one came to protest or demonstrate against it," she said, adding that efforts to stop the film had only enhanced its profile.

China accuses Kadeer, the US-based head of the World Uighur Congress, of masterminding violent unrest in China's northwestern Xinjiang region on July 5 that left more than 190 people dead. She denies the charges.

Foreign ministry officials in Beijing have said they oppose countries providing Kadeer with a platform "to engage in anti-China separatist activities".

The Australian film-maker behind the documentary, Jeff Daniels, said he was surprised at the strength of the campaign against his film.

"I understood that the Chinese government certainly didn't want the film to be screened but I never thought people would put that much pressure on the festival," he told Sky News.

Daniels, who will host Kadeer when the film next screens in Melbourne on August 8, said he was pleased Sunday's premiere was peaceful.

"I know emotions are running high at the moment. It's a very dark time for the Uighurs in China and there are a lot of angry people from China on both sides, he said.

"So I'm very happy that it went peacefully, as a documentary should, and people were able to see different sides of the story."

The Uighurs, a Muslim ethnic minority group who mainly live in western Xinjiang province, complain of political and religious repression under Chinese rule.
 
Yet another update:

Agence France-Presse - 7/29/2009 11:28 AM GMT
Uighur leader says 10,000 'disappeared' in China
The exiled leader of China's Uighurs said Wednesday nearly 10,000 of her people were detained or killed this month in ethnic unrest and appealed for the United Nations to investigate their fate.

Rebiya Kadeer, the US-based head of the World Uighur Congress, also said she was "perplexed" at the muted US response to the violence as she spoke during a visit to Japan that has drawn angry protests from Beijing.


Citing local sources and speaking through an interpreter, she said almost 10,000 people "disappeared" in one night on July 5 when authorities cracked down on the unrest in the mainly Muslim region of Xinjiang.

"Where did those people go?" she said. "If they died, where did they go?"

Kadeer, 62, said Chinese police opened machine-gun fire at Uighur people after dark once the electricity was turned off, and that the following morning large numbers of Uighur men had gone missing.

(...)
 

 
Yet another sign that reunification is closer than previously thought?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32167361/ns/world_news-asiapacific/

Taiwan, China make rare direct exchange
Fresh sign of warming relations as Beijing originates contact with Taipei

The Associated Press
updated 2:44 a.m. PT, Mon., July 27, 2009
TAIPEI, Taiwan - Taiwanese and Chinese leaders directly exchanged messages on Monday for the first time in 60 years, the latest sign of warming relations between Beijing and Taipei.

A Nationalist party press statement said the correspondence originated with a congratulatory message from Chinese President Hu Jintao to Taiwan's leader Ma Ying-jeou after he won an election for the ruling party's chairmanship.

Ma was elected Sunday following monthslong efforts to improve ties with Beijing as president.

The party statement said Hu also asked Ma to help bolster mutual trust between the rival sides and Ma urged Hu to promote cross-strait peace and stability.

Taiwan and China split amid civil war in 1949. China continues to claim the island as part of its territory.


© 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
 
Another update:

China's fishing fleet sets challenge to US
By Lyle Goldstein

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/KH07Ad01.html

With much attention focused on China's growing naval, shipbuilding and port infrastructure developments, it is easy to forget another important dimension of China's maritime rise: China's status as a major global fishing power. With a total haul of over 17 million tonnes in 2007, China's take is four times that of the nearest competitor, and far exceeds the catch of Japan, the United States and other major Pacific maritime powers [1].

China's massive fishing fleet is concentrated in the Western Pacific, but is also active now on all the world's oceans. This issue should foremost be evaluated in an environmental context since the world's oceans are now under severe strain from overfishing. Yet, there are also vital foreign policy and international security aspects to Chinese fisheries developments that can not be neglected by US policymakers.

Indeed, fisheries issues are a significant security concern among Chinese maritime strategists, because they fit squarely into perceived resource and sovereignty imperatives now driving current maritime development [2]. As a whole, China's actions as the largest world fishing power can serve as an important signal for determining Beijing's willingness to conform to global maritime norms as a "responsible maritime stakeholder".

During 2009, Chinese fishing vessels and fishing policies made global headlines with increasing frequency. Beginning in March with the so-called Impeccable incident, in which a few Chinese fishing trawlers in the company of two other enforcement ships and at least one Chinese naval vessel surrounded and harassed a US surveillance vessel 120 kilometers south of Hainan, one of a number of recent and similarly dangerous incidents at sea.

Shortly thereafter, China's largest fishery enforcement vessel, Yuzheng 311, was sent on a lengthy patrol in the South China Sea following legislation by the Philippines to formalize its offshore claims to several islets in the South China Sea. In June, Chinese enforcement of fishery claims came under international scrutiny when Vietnam lodged a series of protests concerning alleged rough treatment of their own fishing vessels by Chinese authorities.

According to one report, incomes of Vietnamese fishermen have declined because of "China's stepped up [fisheries] enforcement", in the vicinity of the Paracel Archipelago. Then in late June, a major incident erupted between Beijing and Jakarta after Indonesian authorities seized eight Chinese fishing vessels and detained 75 Chinese fishermen, who were allegedly fishing illegally in Indonesia's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) - 59 of the 75 Chinese fishermen detained were permitted to return to China in July.

Such incidents illustrate how the activities of fishing vessels and related enforcement authorities of the Western Pacific region represent one of the jagged edges of volatile maritime territorial disputes. There is a real potential in China - and also among its neighbors - for fishing nationalism to take hold because resources coupled with sovereignty disputes are at the heart of naval development in the East Asian region. Unfortunately, fishing tensions could aggravate these disputes to the point of military conflict.

The potential for this nationalism is implied, for example, in one recent Chinese assessment that concludes: "Although our country has signed one after another fishing agreements with neighboring states, the number of fishing industry security incidents involving foreigners has unceasingly increased ... Some [countries] even send warships to bump and sink our side's fishing boats …" [3].

Official figures suggest that China has about 297,937 motorized fishing vessels and approximately eight million fishermen. Chinese are largely catching, among fin-fish, species such as anchovy, Japanese scad, hairtail and small yellow croaker, while significant subsectors also catch shrimp, crab and squid.

The dominant method is trawling, and gill nets, set nets, line and hooks, as well as purse seines are also used. The East China Sea accounts for the largest catch, followed by the South China Sea and then the Yellow Sea. Among these sea areas, only the South China Sea region has seen increasing catches of late. Of China's major marine industries, marine fisheries and related industries are ranked as the largest sector. Guangdong and Shandong are the leading provinces measured by fishing output, with Fujian and Zhejiang close behind [4].

Similar to other fisheries worldwide, China is now confronted by a legacy of massive overfishing that left its proximate fishing grounds depleted. As one Chinese study recently opined: "Now, the fact is obvious that the development of our nation's fishing industry has reached an extremely important juncture. Most - if not all - of the fisheries have been fully exploited, and many are already exhausted" [5].

Another study, published in Marine Policy, one of the leading international academic journals on oceans policy, further reveals the scope of the problem. Since the 1960s, fish species in the Beibu Gulf area of the South China Sea have declined from 487 to 238. Stock density reached its lowest level in 1998 at just 16.7% of that in 1962, though fish stocks have recovered somewhat in recent years [6]. Unlike most Chinese citizens, it is clear that marine fisheries in Chinese coastal areas have not benefited from the economic boom of the past 20 years, but rather have been the victims of rapid, loosely regulated development.

The fact that Chinese fisheries are in a state of near collapse have prompted some bold initiatives by the Beijing government, which includes a "zero growth" plan for production initiated in 1999. By 2004, 8,000 fishing vessels had been scrapped and there is an effort to bring down China's total fishing fleet to 192,000 vessels by next year. Summer fishing moratoriums now exist for almost all of China's coastal areas [7].

Along China's southern coasts alone, tens of thousands of fishermen are reportedly out of work as a consequence of the stringent limits associated with the 2000 Beibu Gulf Delimitation Agreement with Vietnam. With respect to such agreements, one China expert recently observed, "[such agreements] have dramatically compressed the work space for our nation's fishermen. These new difficulties for our hard pressed fleets … constitute one disaster after another. [The agreements] could touch off social instability in various coastal towns and villages." [8].

The Chinese authorities have offered substantial subsidies to displaced fishermen and supported aquaculture as a viable economic alternative to marine fisheries. Indeed, the aquaculture sector has witnessed enormous growth in China during the past decade. One potential bright spot regarding the country's fisheries and coastal environmental protection is that China has designated a very considerable number of marine reserves along its lengthy coast [9]. Experience suggests that marine reserves may be an effective tool for recovering the health of damaged fisheries, but related enforcement measures are not especially promising to date.

Indeed, China's Fisheries Law Enforcement Command (FLEC), as Beijing's major enforcement tool for fisheries management, appears to face significant challenges. Unlike the United States and Japan, ChVarious modern methods, such as vessel monitoring systems for example, have been introduced into FLEC management practices. Nevertheless, interagency difficulties are amply evident, for example in a study written by faculty members at China's coast guard academy in Ningbo (a part of the People's Armed Police of the Public Security Ministry), which states: "The fisheries enforcement department has the function of escorting fishing vessels … but are unarmed… The public security maritime police … [are] equipped with all types of weaponry … [but] because of limitations on jurisdiction can only play a supporting role, and are in an awkward position" [11].

The further development of China's maritime enforcement capabilities, perhaps in the direction of a unified coastguard, could have profound consequences for both regional maritime governance and Chinese ability to better enforce its maritime claims in the region.

Yet, Chinese fishing fleets' activities are much more than a regional issue. Although China's distant water fishing (DWF) fleet was only created in the mid-1980s, by 2006 it had grown to nearly 2,000 vessels operating on the high seas and in the EEZs of 35 countries [12].

The Chinese DWF fleet is supported by subsidies from the central government as part of an effort to divert Chinese fishermen out of local waters that have been fished out. For instance, according to an authoritative source, the number of Chinese fishing vessels in West African waters at any one time could be close to 300 vessels [13]. With relatively low technology
compared to European distant water fishing fleets, Chinese vessels are not pursuing prized blue fin tuna, but are more likely to be fishing for mackerel and other lower value species.

Often, this fishing is legal within the EEZs of the given state, but it is precisely these fish that have previously sustained coastal fishermen around the developing world, creating the possibility that Chinese fishing practices could contribute to a food crisis in Africa and other poor countries. Indeed, one theory informally circulating in maritime circles posits that piracy in the Gulf of Aden is actually a byproduct of overfishing by external powers, who have forced local Somali fishermen into other "careers". China has thus far refused to ratify the UN Fish Stocks Agreement (in force as of 2001), though it should be noted that some concrete reforms have been undertaken by Beijing to control and monitor its DWF fleet.

Beyond the potential for dislocations associated with unsustainable fishing practices, there are a number of implications of China's major role in world fisheries for international security.

First, it is quite plausible that China's wide-ranging fishing fleets offer quite extensive opportunities for enhanced "maritime domain awareness" in certain strategically sensitive sea areas, ranging from the Indian Ocean to the Central Pacific. If China adopts a more expansive blue water naval posture in the coming decades, with an enlarged presence in the Indian Ocean and off of Africa's coasts for example, then these fishing fleets will have been important in developing China's knowledge base with respect to prevailing local conditions.

Second and consistent with the Chinese tendency towards close integration of civil and military institutions, China's large fishing fleet is already integrated into a maritime militia that could render crucial support in a hypothetical military campaign, whether ferrying troops across the Taiwan Strait or laying mines in distant locations. The sheer number of fishing vessels that could be involved would present a severe challenge to any adversary attempting to counter this strategy.

Most importantly, there is the unfortunate potential that a fishing dispute involving loss of life - which happen in East Asian waters with disturbing regularity - could serve as tinder for nationalists on one side or another, provoking actual hostilities between disputing and well-armed claimants in the region.

Finally, there is the strong likelihood that Beijing will continue to use the Chinese strategy of "defeating harshness with kindness" (yi rou ke gang) and thus deploying unarmed fishing vessels or fisheries enforcement vessels to confront foreign vessels operating in its EEZ and claimed waters.

Despite the above concerns, evolving Chinese fisheries policies could also serve as a catalyst for cooperation with other states in East Asia, as well as with Washington. Indeed, the US Coast Guard has been working for more than a decade in the North Pacific with the China FLEC to enforce a UN prohibition on drift net fishing. This cooperation has involved FLEC personnel temporarily being assigned to US Coast Guard cutters - a highly innovative form of cooperation.

Other forms of operational and scientific cooperation might address environmental, weather emergency, rescue, and enforcement aspects of fisheries management. One further encouraging example is that fisheries are now playing a role in the important warming trend between Beijing and Taipei, itself a major fishing power.

Indeed, this warming trend has gone a long way to calming tensions in East Asian waters of late. China's counter-piracy mission off the Gulf of Aden is another example of the great potential of Beijing's positive contribution to international maritime security and stewardship. Recent tensions in the South China Sea area should not spoil the new climate of cooperation and collective responsibility.

The evolution of Chinese fishing practices in the Pacific and around the globe will provide a useful and concrete gauge of Beijing's intent to abide by global norms of international security and environmental sustainability as a genuine responsible, maritime stakeholder.

Notes
1. The State of the World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2008 (Rome: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, 2009), p 11.
2. See, for example, the discussion in Sun Jingping, Notes on Maritime Security Strategy in the New Period in the New Century, China Military Science, June 2008, p 77.
3. Li Zhujiang (ed), The Ocean and the Fishing Industry: Emergency Management (Beijing: Ocean Press, 2007), p 299.
4. This paragraph draws on information from "Fishery and Aquaculture Country Profiles: China," and also from Li Deshui, Wang Shugang, China Marine Statistical Yearbook 2004 (Beijing: Ocean Press, 2005), pp XI-XVI.
5. Mu Yongtong, Fisheries Management: Focusing on a Rights-Based Regime (Qingdao: China Ocean University Press, 2006), p 292.
6. Yunjun Yu and Yongtong Mu, "The New Institutional Arrangement for Fisheries Management in the Beibu Gulf," Marine Policy 30 (2006), p 251.
7. "Fishery and Aquaculture Country Profiles: China," p 3.
8. Mu, Fisheries Management, pp 292-93.
9. Ma Yingjie, Research on the Legal Protection of Chinese Treasured, Rare and Endangered Marine Species (Qingdao: China Ocean University Press, 2008), pp. 92-100.
10. Mu, Fisheries Management, p 292.
11. He Zhonglong, Ren Xingping, Feng Shuili, Luo Xianfen, Liu Jinghong, Research on the Building of the Chinese Coast Guard (Beijing: Ocean Press, 2007), p 40.
12. Guifang (Julia) Xue, "China's Distant Water Fisheries and Its Response to Flag State Responsibilities," Marine Policy 30 (2006), p. 653.
13. Wang Ning (ed), Handbook on Long-Distance Fishing Technology and Economy (Beijing: Ocean Press, 2002), p 74.

Lyle J Goldstein, PhD, is director of the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) of the US Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island.
ina lacks a single unified coastguard with a broad maritime enforcement mandate. As a result, according to one China fisheries expert: "Although the central government has taken steps … the results are minimal … Fisheries enforcement is congenitally deficient … The failure of fisheries management is already beyond dispute" [10].

Among the various agencies responsible for coastal management responsibilities in China, the FLEC, which is subordinate to the Ministry of Agriculture, appears to lag well behind better funded and managed agencies, such as the Maritime Safety Administration (of the Ministry of Communications). Recent reporting does suggest that the further development of FLEC is an increasing priority for Beijing.
 
  :o

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090809/ap_on_re_as/as_china_plane_bomb_threat

China says plane diverted to Afghanistan by threat
        Gillian Wong, Associated Press Writer – 16 mins ago
BEIJING – A plane scheduled to land in China's western region of Xinjiang that was rocked by ethnic riots last month was diverted to southern Afghanistan by a bomb threat, state media said Sunday.

Xinhua News Agency did not identify the airline or the type of plane, but said the airport in the Xinjiang capital of Urumqi had been told to not to allow the plane to land.

Urumqi was the scene of the worst ethnic violence in China in decades when deadly rioting killed 197 people and injured more than 1,700, according to official count.

Xinhua had earlier reported that the plane had been hijacked, but said it had landed in Kandahar, Afghanistan, after a bomb threat.

A Xinjiang regional government duty officer, who refused to give his name, said he had not received any information about the incident, while calls to the region's public security bureau rang unanswered.

Calls to the Urumqi airport's information counter also rang unanswered.

The government has said that Urumqi has slowly been returning to normal since the rioting erupted on July 5 after police stopped a protest by ethnic Uighur residents. The Uighurs went on a rampage, smashing windows, burning cars and beating Han Chinese — the nation's dominant ethnic group. Two days later, the Han took to the streets and attacked Uighurs.

The government said the violence was the work of terrorists, separatists and foreign forces as part of a plot to carve up China.

In early August, an Internet message purportedly from the leader of an Islamic group fighting Chinese rule in a western province urged Muslims worldwide to attack Chinese interests in retaliation for what it called the oppression of minority Uighurs.
 
capt.f9bbf58cb5f549ec93deffb4b969d9a1.taiwan_asia_storm_tpe101.jpg


In this image taken on Monday, Aug. 10, 2009, and released by the Taiwan Military News Agency on Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2009, a soldier sifts through debris from Typhoon Morakot in southern Taiwan's Kaohsiung county. A mudslide touched off by the deadly typhoon buried a remote mountain village in Taiwan, leaving at least 400 people unaccounted for, while officially there are 38 dead and 62 missing.
(AP Photo/Taiwan Military News Agency)

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Rescuers help people in Chishan, Kaohsiung county, after they were evacuated by a military helicopter from a landslide-affected village in southern Taiwan following Typhoon Morakot August 11, 2009. REUTERS/Pichi Chuang (TAIWAN DISASTER ENVIRONMENT)

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REUTERS/Pichi Chuang (TAIWAN DISASTER ENVIRONMENT IMAGES OF THE DAY)

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Soldiers walk through floodwater caused by Typhoon Morakot in Chiashien, in southern Taiwan's Kaohsiung county during a rescue operation. Flooding in Taiwan triggered by Morakot has killed 38 people and another 62 are missing, rescuers said Tuesday. (AFP/File/Patrick Lin)

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A rescuer carries a man in Chishan, Kaohsiung county, after he was evacuated by military helicopter from a landslide affected village in southern Taiwan following Typhoon Morakot, August 10, 2009. About 600 people are missing and may be buried under a mudslide in a mountainous village of southern Taiwan following torrential rainfall over the weekend from the typhoon, disaster officials said. REUTERS/Stringer (TAIWAN ENVIRONMENT DISASTER) TAIWAN OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN TAIWAN

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Armored Personnel Carriers bring rescue workers through a flooded street of Pingtung county, southern Taiwan, Monday, Aug. 10, 2009. An estimated 400 Taiwanese are unaccounted for after the landslide spawned by Typhoon Morakot struck their isolated mountain village of Shiao Lin, a police official said Monday, and a newspaper quoted a resident as saying as many as 600 were buried. (AP Photo)

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Paramilitary policemen stand on a pile of sand bags at a section of Yangjia Stream of Xiapu county in Ningde, Fujian province August 10, 2009. Typhoon Morakot battered China's commercial east coast on Sunday, killing a child and flattening houses. Half a million people in coastal Fujian province were moved to safer parts ahead of the typhoon's arrival, along with a similar number in neighbouring Zhejiang, Xinhua reported. REUTERS/Stringer (CHINA ENVIRONMENT DISASTER SOCIETY) CHINA OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN CHINA

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Medical personnel evacuate children by a military helicopter from a landslide affected village after Typhoon Morakot swept Taiwan in Kaohsiung county, southern Taiwan August 10, 2009. Typhoon Morakot killed an estimated 14 people with another 51 missing, according to local media. REUTERS/Stringer (TAIWAN ENVIRONMENT DISASTER) TAIWAN OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN TAIWAN

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Rescuers in rafts and the military search for residents trapped by flooding from rains brought by Typhoon Morakot in Chiatung, Pingtung county, in southern Taiwan. At least 14 people were confirmed dead and 51 others were missing in Taiwan on Monday after Typhoon Morakot caused the island's worst flooding in half a century, the rescue services said. (AFP/Sam Yeh)

Plus an article:

Taiwan rescues up to 300 Typhoon victims
 
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Soldiers evacuate a stranded resident to a safe area as Typhoon Morakot hits Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province August 9, 2009. REUTERS/China Daily

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Soldiers patrol along the shores as Typhoon Morakot approaches in Wenling, Zhejiang province August 9, 2009. As Typhoon Morakot neared, more than 970,000 people in two coastal east China provinces were evacuated to safety Sunday, Xinhua News Agency reported. REUTERS/China Daily (CHINA DISASTER SOCIETY ENVIRONMENT) CHINA OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN CHINA

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Soldiers run from waves triggered by Typhoon Morakot along the shores of Quanzhou, Fujian province, August 8, 2009. A light typhoon swept through northern Taiwan, killing one and leaving four missing as it headed out to China, Taiwan's government said on Saturday. REUTERS/Stringer (CHINA DISASTER SOCIETY ENVIRONMENT) CHINA OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN CHINA

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A helicopter looks for survivors in heavy flooding brought by typhoon Morakot in Taitung, eastern Taiwan August 8, 2009. A light typhoon swept through northern Taiwan, killing one and leaving four missing as it headed out to China, Taiwan's government said today. REUTERS/Stringer (TAIWAN ENVIRONMENT TRANSPORT) TAIWAN OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN TAIWAN

capt.8c1e8a1695c046edb37adb79ba19c765.taiwan_typhoon_tpe803.jpg


A Taiwanese woman rides a life cutter with rescuers in floodwater following a heavy rain brought by typhoon Morakot in a street in Linbian town, southern of Taiwan, Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009. A typhoon slammed into Taiwan overnight, leaving scores of people dead or missing and more than a dozen injured, officials and media reported Saturday. The Central Weather Bureau said. It is expected to weaken to a tropical storm before it hits southern China late Saturday or early Sunday. (AP Photo)
 
An exercise that focuses on "long-range projection", as stated below? Another reason why Ma should not be so eager to reunify Taiwan with the mainland.

http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4229262&c=ASI&s=LAN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

China Kicks Off Unprecedented Military Exercise
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Published: 11 Aug 2009 06:56 

BEIJING - China's military on Aug. 11 launched its largest tactical military exercise, involving 50,000 heavily-armored troops in a long-distance deployment spanning thousands of kilometers, state press said.

The live-fire maneuvers, dubbed "Stride-2009," will involve a division each from the Shenyang, Lanzhou, Jinan and Guangzhou regional military commands and will last for two months, Xinhua news agency said.

"In the unprecedented exercise, one of the PLA's major objectives will be to improve its capacity of long-range projection," the report said, citing the general staff of the People's Liberation Army.

"Unlike previous annual tactical exercises, the army divisions and their air units will be deployed in unfamiliar areas far from their garrison training bases by civilian rail and air transport."

This means troops, tanks, vehicles and weapons systems from Shenyang in the northeast will be deployed to Lanzhou in the northwest, while similar exchanges will take place between Jinan in the east and Guangzhou in the south, it said.

According to the People's Liberation Army Daily, the exercises will simulate Chinese victories in the war against Japan (1937-45) and victories against U.S. troops during the Korean War (1950-53).

Following annual double-digit growth in defense spending over most of the last 20 years, China's rapidly modernizing military has kept pace with the nation's rising political and economic clout.
The United States, Japan and their allies have repeatedly expressed concern about China's military build-up and what they see as a lack of transparency about the intent behind the expansion.

With 2.3 million soldiers, the People's Liberation Army is the world's largest military.
 
I remember going to the 1999 version of the 1st TADTE, when it was held at the Taipei World Trade Center, and grabbing a couple of brochures at the Raytheon booth.  >:D

http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4237571&c=ASI&s=AIR

Taiwan's CSIST Shows Off Missiles, UAVs at TADTE
By wendell minnick
Published: 16 Aug 2009 10:17 

TAIPEI - Military-run Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology (CSIST) showed off its wares, including new missiles, at the biennial 10th Taipei Aerospace and Defense Technology Exhibition and Conference (TADTE), August 13-16.

In a surprise move, CSIST displayed the Hsiung Feng 3 (Brave Wind) anti-ship missile and Tien Kung-3 (Sky Bow) air defense missile. It is only the second time the military has allowed public access to the two missiles. The first time was in 2007, when both were displayed during the Ten-Ten military parade.

CSIST also exhibited a sounding rocket. A Taiwan defense analyst said the rocket was originally a cover program for Taiwan's ballistic missile development. However, CSIST officials denied this, stating the rocket was for scientific experiments conducted by the National Space Program Office (NSPO).

"CSIST and NSPO joined together on this program in 1997," said a CSIST official. "We have 10-15 sounding rocket launches planned with the NSPO before 2018. We build them as NSPO needs them."

The two-stage solid fuel rocket is 7.7 meters in length, has a speed of Mach 7, a maximum altitude of 280 km and can carry a 130 kg payload. The Taiwan defense analyst said the fact that it is a two-stage sounding rocket raises questions and "CSIST was careful to make sure they only acknowledged a maximum altitude of 280 km," just short of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) 300 km/500 kg range/payload minimum.


UAVs showcased

CSIST also displayed a wide variety of UAVs at this year's TADTE, including an operational Chung Shyang for the first time. A CSIST representative said the first one was built in 2007 and CSIST now has five operational prototypes.

"The army and air force are interested in the Chung Shyang," he said. "With the recent typhoon, the army could have conducted a damage assessment, but the army has no UAV capability at this time. We expect a decision from the military in 2010 with a potential order of twenty."

The Chung Shyang has both day and night surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. It can also serve as a communications relay. It has a range of 100 km, cruising speed of 60 knots with an eight-hour endurance. The Taiwan coast guard has dropped interest in the platform for budgetary reasons, he said.

CSIST also showed off its Cardinal mini-UAV system and Blue Magpie mini-UAV system, both hand-launched platforms. The 2.1 kg Cardinal began development in 2007 and there are now ten in production for further testing. It has a range of 15-20 km, speed of 30 knots, endurance of 1.5 hours, and a maximum altitude of 4.5 km. Payload options include a charge-coupled device (CCD) camera, night vision camera, goggle manual and autopilot. The military has expressed interest in procuring the Cardinal, but no decision has been made.

However, the Blue Magpie has garnered no interest by the military. The system is extremely small with a weight of only 1.0 kg. It has a CCD payload and can be flown by autopilot or manual. It has a range of three kilometers, maximum altitude .6-1.5 km, cruising speed of 25 knots with a one-hour endurance. The UAV can "transmit real-time images … and can be used for reconnaissance and target acquisition," said a CSIST representative. It has been in development since 2006.


Clouded Leopard

A representative of the Combined Logistics Command, under the Ministry of National Defense, confirmed the 8x8 CM-32 Clouded Leopard was still being considered by the military, despite local media reports the program had been killed.

"The army will make a final decision in 2010 on the fate of the platform," he said.

There have been reports in the local media the CM-32 was overweight, suffered from transmission problems, lacked amphibious capabilities, and the turning radius was too wide.
 
More Patriots for Taiwan.

Taiwan to procure additional Patriot systems

19 August 2009

Taiwan is set to receive up to six additional Patriot air and missile defence systems, in a contract estimated to be worth around USD6 billion, on top of an ongoing programme to update its three existing facilities from Patriot Advanced Configuration-2 (PAC-2) to PAC-3.

Taiwanese government sources have told Jane's that a signed letter of offer and acceptance (LOA) was received from US officials earlier this month for four new operational fire units (OFUs), in a contract worth USD3.2 billion.

The LOA means that the existing Foreign Military Sale (FMS) for a USD600 million upgrade programme of three OFUs, will be enlarged to include four additional OFUs as well as 264 PAC-3 missiles from Lockheed Martin.

However, sources told Jane's that it was not known if and when the Obama administration would notify Congress and subsequently release an LOA to Taiwan for the remaining two new OFUs and fire unit training system. Any contract for these remaining systems is estimated to be worth an additional USD3 billion, sources said.

http://www.janes.com/news/defence/idr/idr090819_1_n.shtml
 
The stability and growth of China are interesting subject, especially when you realize you are not actually getting the numbers you need. The normalized GDP figures and the mouontain of non performing debt that the Chinese government is taking on seems very similar to the situation the United States was getting into starting in the 1990's:

http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2009/08/19/dinner-party/

A revolution is not a dinner party. Thoughts about the future of China
Filed under: Geopolitical news — Tags: china, gordon chang, mao tse-tung, michael pettis, revolution — Fabius Maximus @ 12:01 am
This is a follow-up to Will China collapse? (5 August 2008).

Recent analysis:

“Get ready for lower Chinese growth“, Michael Pettis, op-ed in the Financial Times, 29 July 2009
”The spend is nigh“, Economist, 30 July 2009 — “The second article in our series on global rebalancing asks whether China can reduce its trade surplus by consuming more.”
“China’s economic policy: A ‘Great Wall’ or Capuan complacency?“, Arthur Kroeber, Financial Times, 11 August 2009 — See excerpt below.
Excerpt from The Coming Collapse of China, Gordon G. Chang — See excerpt below.
Quote of the decade about China

Secondly, a revolution is not a dinner party, or writing an essay, or painting a picture, or doing embroidery; it cannot be so refined, so leisurely and gentle, so temperate, kind, courteous, restrained and magnanimous. A revolution is an insurrection, an act of violence by which one class overthrows another.
— Mao tse-tung, “”Report on an Investigation of the Peasant Movement in Hunan”, March 1927

(3)  China’s spirit is not a Great Wall

“China’s economic policy: A ‘Great Wall’ or Capuan complacency?“, Arthur Kroeber, Financial Times, 11 August 2009 — Excerpt:

The Romans bounced back from calamity because they had a resilient set of alliances based on well-developed political and economic ties and a constitutional system that enabled a broad array of talent to come forward and express itself. No error lasted too long unchecked.

… China’s ability to maintain economic growth of around 8% despite the global shock took many by surprise. But this ability has nothing to do with systemic advantages, a distinct “China model” of growth, or skill in macroeconomic management.

… China’s present economic vitality results from a Great Wall all right – a Great Wall of borrowed cash. There is nothing remarkable or spiritual about an economy growing at 8 per cent when credit is allowed to expand by 34%.

The fact becomes even less remarkable when we recognise that nominal GDP (the appropriate comparator for nominal credit growth) grew just 3.8% in the first half. In other words, 10 dollars of new loans were required to generate just one dollar of economic growth.

In fact China’s first-half growth shows one thing and one thing only: the existence of a powerful state with the ability to commandeer its citizens’ wealth and plough it into more buildings, bridges and roads, with no regard for the return those investments will bring.


(4)  Excerpt from The Coming Collapse of China, Gordon G. Chang (2001)

There are plenty of Chinese this evening, but nothing is horrible and no one is sad. If anything, some are a bit too merry. The crowd, numbering in the hundreds, is boisterous as free-flowing liquor enlivens the revelers on the rooftop terrace of Shanghai’s historic Peace Hotel. The city around them is sparkling, floodlit in clashing colors against a pitch black sky, and the Huangpu River just below is bustling with commerce even at this late hour.

On the roof this perfect evening the wealthy and the famous mingle with Shanghainese on the make; pride, arrogance, and envy all on display. Personalities in black tie chat with gentlemen in long gray robes, and women in floor-length gowns mix with friends in tight-fitting qi pao split almost to the waist.

Guests have traveled across China and halfway around the world to be on display this evening in the radiant city that is Shanghai. But now the guests take their seats and the table chatter slowly dies. They look at the figure standing before them this Saturday evening in October 1999, just days after the fiftieth anniversary of the People’s Republic. The ornate ballroom at the top of the Peace Hotel is finally quiet.

The tall American woman is particularly striking; she’s in her finest revolutionary red. Her gown, covered in hundreds of Mao buttons of red and gold, is a fashion statement, however, not a political one, because she’s here to have fun. She takes a look around the room before starting. “The Revolution has become a dinner party,” says Maggie Farley, and the crowd cheers.

Yes, the revolution has become a dinner party. The People’s Republic today is not gentle, temperate, or kind, but it is not revolutionary either. The country and the party that leads it are now both old in their ways. The zeal that carried Mao from near defeat to total victory has been spent, lost in all the campaigns and programs that have gone wrong. Here, in the city where the Chinese Communist Party was born, there is nothing that is revolutionary. Nothing, that is, except the opponents of the current regime. They are weak today, but that will change.

The Chinese now want something different, as they did at the end of the Qing Dynasty and at the fall of the Kuomintang. The people are no longer poor and blank. They know what they want. The Chinese will take what they want one day, and that day will be soon.

The truth is that Party cadres will have only themselves to blame when that time comes. They have, over more than five decades, failed. Their republic is corrupt, repressive, and brutal. Its sheet of paper is no longer unblemished. China, for all its recent progress, is still poor. Chinese history has a pattern: governments like the current one fall.
 
We'll see if this a genuine attempt at transparency...

From the AP:

China's secretive military launches Web site
Updated August 20, 2009 11:48 AM 


BEIJING (AP) -- China's Defense Ministry launched its first official Web site Thursday, part of an effort by the normally secretive military to be more transparent.

The site's launch — including an English version — comes as the US Army's top general visits Beijing for talks with his Chinese counterparts. Army Chief of Staff Gen. George Casey will visit the headquarters of the People's Liberation Army on Thursday and meet PLA Chief of the General Staff Chen Bingde.


China has long been tightlipped about its military strength and capacity, drawing criticism from other countries wary of the Asian giant's growing power and skyrocketing military spending. Beijing says it is modernizing is military, but for purely defensive purposes.

But in recent years, China has been increasing its international military ties. Earlier this year, Chinese warships were sent to patrol waters off Somalia as part of the international effort against piracy.

Defense Minister Liang Guanglie said earlier this month the army would develop peacefully and increase cooperation with foreign armed forces to fulfill its international obligations.

A Defense Ministry spokesman last month said the military planned to establish more information offices nationwide and hold more news conferences.

The Web site includes sections on China's defense policies and laws and news about military exercises, peacekeeping roles and international military exchanges.

A picture of President Hu Jintao, who is also chairman of the Communist Party's Central Military Commission, which controls the military, is prominent on the home page. Pictures and information on weapons and equipment are also displayed.

China's military spending has jumped by double-digit percentages for nearly two decades. This year, Beijing announced a 14.9 percent rise in military spending to 480.68 billion yuan ($70.27 billion), though it was a smaller increase than previous years.

That spending puts it on par with Japan, Russia and Britain, but it is still dwarfed by the US, which spends nearly 10 times as much.
 
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provision (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s National Post is a bit of common sense from a usual source of that rare commodity:

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2009/08/22/conrad-black-much-ado-about-china.aspx
Conrad Black: Much ado about China

August 22, 2009

Overblown announcements heralding the supposed coming of the Age of China have become a staple of journalistic futurism in recent years. When Maclean's magazine banners across the top of its cover "When China Rules the World," as it did last month -- and it is not a Monty Python send-up of swarms of incomprehensible people in Mao suits -- I know it is time to raise a peep of dissent.

Does any of this sound familiar? It was not even 20 years ago that the same was being said about Japan, when U. S. president George H. W. Bush went to Tokyo and was patronized by the Japanese prime minister for being at the head of a declining power. At an official dinner, the president vomited and returned to his embassy in an ambulance (but explained privately that his indigestion was the consequence of eating plain fish while facing Chrysler chairman Lee Iacocca for two hours).

And it was only 15 years before -- during the Carter doldrums, following the Kennedy assassinations and the debacles of Vietnam and Watergate -- that the world was abuzz with predictions that the U. S. S. R. would surpass the United States.

In fact, the most serious threat came from the Nazis. The official borders of Germany at the end of 1940, including Austria, Bohemia (the Czechs), Moravia, most of Poland, Denmark, Norway, Benelux and the Atlantic coast of France, gave the Reich 130 million people, the same population as the United States, and almost equivalent industrial potential. This was why Roosevelt ran for a third term, determined to help keep Britain (and Canada) in the war, and to assist all who resisted the Nazification of Europe. The Nazi threat was so serious that it required the entire combat strength of the British Commonwealth, the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. to defeat it.

In the Cold War that followed, the Soviet challenge simply imploded, crumbled, after 40 years of containment by a U. S.-led alliance, in which no fire was exchanged between the major powers. As for Japan, it simply ran out of steam, lost a whole decade in financial stagnation while its stock market declined by 90% -- even though it continued, to this day, to be a brilliant manufacturer and marketer of automobiles and many sophisticated products from cameras to television equipment.

None of this means that China won't continue to rise, or that the U. S. won't again have to prove its staying power as a world force. But matter-of-fact assertions, complete with timetables, of an imminent Chinese assumption of world leadership, are rubbish.

The takeaway message on the failure of the brief era of U. S. unipolarity that followed the demise of the U. S. S. R. is not that the U. S. is finished as the world's leading country, but that multipolarity, not the hegemony of a sole superpower, will replace the bipolarized Cold War. There are about 40 reasonably important countries in the world (of a total of 192), and the major powers will compete to build relations within that group.

The theory of the inevitable rise of China is similar to the recent theory of the inevitable end of the U. S. as a mainly Caucasian country: It is based on the extrapolation of current statistics that will not continue, and that in the case of the Chinese economy, are a fiction anyway.

China has a centrally directed economy, and calculates growth rates as a function of production, not spending; and production is deemed to occur when it is commissioned by the state. Thus, all Chinese predictions of economic growth are self-fulfilling: The central economic leadership orders production of toasters or submarines and announces construction of roads and sports stadiums, and the anticipated costs are added to the GDP at once. (In western countries, by contrast, GDP is the sum of consumption, investment, government spending and exports.)

The government monitors the progress of state construction and inventory levels, but doesn't release these numbers. It regularly claims 15% annual retail sales increases, but that reflects shipments to retail outlets, not sales, and even less, sales revenue. Such a system preserves some aspects of the catastrophic Soviet-style command economy. There are reports of consumer goods being virtually given away at point of sale, i. e., at below their cost of production.

All outsiders can do to judge the progress of demand is to see what the central bank does with credit and the money supply. The country has had a 21% decline in exports this year, so to achieve its 8% economic growth for 2009, there will have to be a 15% to 17% increase in domestic economic activity. There has been a strenuous effort to increase domestic demand, and the much-ballyhooed US$586-billion Chinese stimulus plan was really an excuse for the relaxation of credit and the redesignation of categories of already approved expenses.

The money-supply increase for this year is a very audacious 34.5%, to stimulate domestic demand. The two Shanghai stock exchanges almost doubled (before a recent 20% downturn) and major city residential prices are up around 13% so far this year. So bubbles are clearly developing. The country's claimed savings rate of 50% is not real, because it includes provision for all health care, retirement benefits and other social spending that is provided by the state in most western countries.

China claims to be expanding health care and other social services, but has not allocated realistic amounts to accomplish this. The country also has no credible legal system, and is rife with corruption (as evidenced by the shoddily built schools -- used as shelters during the recent earthquakes -- which were built on the cheap with no structural steel, and then collapsed, killing thousands of people). It has one billion peasants who largely live as they did 3,000 years ago. Almost every great urban development attracts swarms of expropriated people throwing rocks at bulldozer drivers, and the Chinese navy regularly steals the catches of commercial fishermen. The one-child-per-couple policy is creating an ageing and male-unbalanced population. It is a rough country, oscillating between near chaos and Tiananmen-like exertions of authority.

The rise of China is impressive and an objectively good thing, and the United states is labouring. But the U. S. has a functioning, if conspicuously imperfect, political and legal system, formidable resources, an incomparably productive work force, nearly four times China's GDP, and a popular culture that dominates the world. It must put its house in order, which will be painful, but a trifle compared to the challenges facing China. The United States has seen off greater challenges than this.

National Post
cbletters@gmail.com

The key points, it seems to me, are:

• None of this means that China won't continue to rise, or that the U. S. won't again have to prove its staying power as a world force;

• Matter-of-fact assertions, complete with timetables, of an imminent Chinese assumption of world leadership, are rubbish;

• Multipolarity, not the hegemony of a sole superpower, will replace the bipolarized Cold War;

• [China] has no credible legal system, and is rife with corruption;

• The rise of China is impressive and an objectively good thing;

• The United states is labouring;

• The U. S. has a functioning, if conspicuously imperfect, political and legal system, formidable resources, an incomparably productive work force, nearly four times China's GDP, and a popular culture that dominates the world. It must put its house in order, which will be painful, but a trifle compared to the challenges facing China; and

• The United States has seen off greater challenges than this.

“Multipolarity” is the way of the world. The US is one major pole; China is another but not the other. Europe is also one of the “multi poles”, but not quite as strong in so many areas as either America or China; ditto India, but weaker still as are Japan, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia and, and, and ...
 
More details as the large exercise continues:

China Sends 4 Divisions on Long-Range Exercise
By wendell minnick
Published: 21 Aug 2009 15:25 

TAIPEI - Four Chinese armored divisions are traveling more than 1,200 kilometers to sharpen their ability to move long distances and conduct exercises in unfamiliar territory.Dubbed Stride-2009, the two-month exercise, which began Aug. 11, involves 50,000 troops from the Shenyang, Lanzhou, Jinan and Guangzhou regions. Chinese media are calling it the People's Liberation Army's largest-ever tactical armor exercise.

"We know that four divisions from four Military Regions will each travel separately by road, rail and air to four separate combined-arms training centers in distant Military Regions," said Dennis Blasko, a former U.S. Army foreign area officer specializing in China. "As with all Chinese use of superlatives, one must be careful to determine exactly what is meant by the 'largest-ever tactical military exercise.'"

For example, Blasko said,the tri-service 2001 Liberation-1 amphibious exercise conducted at Dongshan Island lasted four months and involved nearly 100,000 troops. And in the Peace Mission 2007 exercise, 1,600 troops traveled over land from Xinjiang, China, to the mountainous Ural region of Russia.

Another analyst said Stride-2009 appeared to be part of China's effort to test and develop its ability to mobilize its armed forces on a large scale.

"No matter where it ultimately chooses to send its forces, its first step will be to concentrate them at some point of embarkation within China. That will involve movements of this type," said Thomas Kane, author of the book, "Chinese Grand Strategy and Maritime Power."

Kane noted that recent years have seen an increase in internal unrest, with uprisings in Tibet and the Uighur Xinjiang region; angry protests about the response to last year's Sichuan earthquake; and public disruptions linked to a rise in unemployment. But he said these situations simply do not require 50,000 heavily armored troops.

Instead, Kane linked Stride-2009 to China's attempt to mimic the C4 revolution in the U.S. military.

"In my interpretation, the primary reason for deploying troops in unfamiliar levels is to test command and control procedures," he said. "I scarcely need to add that effective procedures for command, control, communications and whatever else the Pentagon has bolted onto its latest acronym for such concepts are an important part of what distinguishes forces that are effective in warfare from forces that merely look impressive on paper."

Stride-2009 is at least the third large PLA exercise this summer. In July, four brigades from the Second Artillery Division had a field exercise, and in June, about 100 aircraft from the Guangzhou Military Region Air Force were involved in another large exercise, Blasko said.

"However, it is noteworthy that the earlier Second Artillery and PLAAF exercises were not joint, though at least the deployment phase of Stride-2009 is," he said. "It will be interesting to see how much the PLA Air Force participates in the live-fire phases of the exercise."
 
Not very surprising, though still quite gruesome.

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/686493

BEIJING–The majority of transplanted organs in China come from executed prisoners, state media reported Wednesday in a rare disclosure about the country's problem of dubious organ donations.

Despite a 2007 regulation barring donations from people who are not related to or emotionally connected to the transplant patient, the China Daily newspaper said 65 per cent of organ donations come from death row.

It quoted Vice Health Minister Huang Jiefu as saying written consent is required from condemned prisoners but that they are ``definitely not a proper source for organ transplants."

To curb transplants from prisoners and other abuses, a new national organ donation system managed by the Red Cross Society and the Health Ministry was launched Tuesday, the newspaper said.

China has previously acknowledged that kidneys, livers, corneas and other organs were routinely removed from prisoners sentenced to death, but gave no figures to show how widespread the practice was.

Voluntary donations remain far below demand in China, partly because of cultural biases against organ removal before burial.

The newspaper said about only 1 per cent of the estimated 1 million people in China who need transplants are able to get one.

The scarcity of available organs has led to a lucrative black market, with traffickers selling organs from people pressured or forced into donating. The newspaper said traffickers forge the necessary documents required since tighter regulations went into effect in 2007.

China executes more people than any other country.
 
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