Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[CougarKing]

Just a couple more updates showing the progress of China's efforts to get carrier aircraft:

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/china-to-buy-su33-carrierbased-fighters-from-russia-02806/

China to Buy Su-33 Carrier-Based Fighters from Russia?
11-Mar-2009 13:46 EDT

Near the end of October 2006, Russia’s Kommersant newspaper revealed that Russian state-run weapon exporter Rosoboronexport is completing negotiations with China to deliver up to 48 Sukhoi SU-33 (NATO codename: Flanker-D) carrier-capable fighter aircraft in a purchase deal reportedly worth $2.5 billion. The SU-33 is a variant of Sukhoi’s SU-27 Flanker with forward canards, foldings wings, an arrester hook, a reinforced structure, and other modifications that help it deal with carrier operations and landings.

At present, reports regarding the sale and China’s aircraft carrier intentions both remain somewhat murky. china’s intent to field aircraft carriers is becoming clearer and clearer, but the availability of aircraft could be a problem – Russia has reportedly refused to sell the SU-33s, citing past pirating of Russian designs…

A Carrier for China?
Reports and Key Events
Additional Readings

A Carrier for China?

The PLA Navy has made contradictory statements regarding its wish to have an operational aircraft carrier, but most expert observers believe they are working on a program to do so. Assurances that the Varyag is destined to be a floating hotel do appear somewhat at variance with the PLAN paint job – the question is whether the Chinese believe they can bring it up to operational status, or are simply using the ship as a learning platform in preparation for their own construction efforts later.

In October 2006, SinoDefence.com reported that China will spend $100 million to buy 2 Su-33 fighters from Komsomolsk-on-Amur Production Association for ‘trial and evaluations,’ with delivery expected in 2007-08. Reports claim there is also an agreed option for another 12 Su-33 fighters, with the potential for the deal to grow to 48 SU-33s and $2.5 billion. They add that China’s Dalian Shipyard is currently refitting the ex-Soviet Navy aircraft carrier Varyag, acquired in extremely poor condition from the Ukraine in 1999.

Reports and Key Events

March 10/09: The Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper reports that Russia is refusing to sell China SU-33 jets, citing past piracy of the design for its SU-27 fighters. China initially sought 2 SU-33s for its “trial basis” order, which are a modified variant of the SU-27. Subsequent negotiations reportedly raised the “trial” order to 14 of the 50 aircraft China said it wanted, but that was not enough to remove the basic problem.

In 1995, China received a license for the production of 200 Su-27SK fighters; that agreement was later terminated at 95 planes. China cushioned the blow by ordering a total of 110 SU-30MK2s between 1999-2003, but they are now producing a “J-11B” fighter that appears to be an SU-27 with Chinese radar and avionics, and Chinese WS-10 engines in place of Russian Lyulka AL-31s. The issue was reportedly raised at the 13th meeting of the Russian-Chinese Committee for Military Cooperation in December 2008, without resolution.

If Russia believes that its SU-33s are being ordered so they can be cloned by the Chinese, creating a future with no further orders from China, and a cheaper version of their weapons offered for global export, then their lack of interest in a deal is understandable.

Note that concerns are also being raised in Russia around ongoing production of Russian-derived Cold War era designs by Eastern European countries, which could create future diplomatic incidents. Pravda report.

China to Buy Su-33 Carrier-Based Fighters from Russia?
26-Mar-2009 08:46 EDT

March 20/09: Chinese defense minister Liang Guanglie reportedly tells visiting Japanese Defence Minister Yasukazu Hamada that:

“Among the big nations only China does not have an aircraft carrier. China cannot be without an aircraft carrier forever…. China’s navy is currently rather weak, we need to develop an aircraft carrier.”

The Agence France Presse report adds that earlier in March 2009, China Daily quoted Admiral Hu Yanlin as saying:

“Building aircraft carriers is a symbol of an important nation. It is very necessary…. China has the capability to build aircraft carriers and should do so.”

March 13/09: Jane’s Defence Weekly reports that negotiations are continuing for the SU-33 sale:

“Negotiations for the sale of Sukhoi Su-33 carrier-capable combat aircraft to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) are still continuing with both sides interested in coming to a final agreement, Russian industry sources have told Jane’s . “Previous reports that these discussions are at an end or that the ‘contract has been cancelled’ are incorrect,” said a Russian source close to the programme.”

 

 

[markpoint]

What are Chinese Military forces doing on N Korea's launching nuclear test since US and Japan claimed to intercept N Korea's missile? I believe that they are not sleeping even though nothing of clues can be seen in public media. It is reasonable and helpful to make some assumptions on the bases of personal experiences and Chinese military chronic behaviors:

1. N Korea PM visited China and met China president and PM in Beijing this month, which could be seen in public and considered as the highest level behavior to coordinate both-side-activities for upcoming challenges.  It seems that there was not any Chinese military officers involved in this visiting, but don't forget that President Hu Jintao is the Chairman of Chinese Military Committee and controlling PLA.

2. I affirm that US and Japan will be failure in their interception efforts because of China's secretly assisting and involving in N Korea's launching test. Chinese military will not do the same stupid things as what they did in Yugoslavia war about twenty years ago. According to personal experiences and Chinese military chronic behaviors, they will never be an audience this time.

3. What can be done by Chinese military forces to assist and to involve in N Korea's launching missile test will be disabling US and Japan's interception system at the most critical moment with electronic war. It is a great time for Chinese military electronic war system to practice and test their efforts which is the only meaningful thing and a great demand for improvment of PLA.

4. Possibility: considering US and Japan President, DOD Secretaries, Commanders' laptop computers all shut down at that moment that the Chinese Electronic Army shoosed, what will be happened then?   



   

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

Alcan called,....they want to thank you for their stock prices.

 

[markpoint]

All Chinese hacker behaviors are controlled and supported by Government and military because of China's severely internet surveillance and censorship system. There is no any possibilitities and spaces for any non-governmental hacker group and  behaviors to exist in China

 

[George Wallace]

As if on cue:


Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

  Reported internet spy network just tip of iceberg: researcher 
30/03/2009 1:39:06 PM 
      (Link in Title)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


An internet spy network that targeted hundreds of "high value" computers belonging to government departments and other organizations in 103 countries is likely just one of many, says one of the Canadian researchers who uncovered it.


CBC News
"We happened to discover and publicize this particular one. But you can safely guess that there are many of these going on," said Ron Deibert, director of the Citizen Lab at the Munk Centre for International Studies at the University of Toronto Monday.

Deibert's organization and the Ottawa-based think tank SecDev Group released a report on the spy network Sunday after a 10-month investigation. The network, dubbed GhostNet, infiltrated at least 1,295 computers, including many belonging to embassies, foreign ministries and other government offices around the world.

While some of the IP addresses used by the hackers were traced back to Hainan Island, the location of China's major signals and intelligence agency, Deibert told CBC Radio's Ottawa Morning that the attack could have been carried out by anyone, as the control servers were not set up securely.

"I do know that China is not the only country that engages in this kind of activity," he said. "It's almost like cyberspace has become a wild west."

He added that United States, for example, has openly talked in its unclassified defence and intelligence literature about fighting and winning wars in cyberspace.

Nor is this a new type of intelligence practice.

"What is new is that we discovered it and documented it."

Rafal Rohozinski of SecDev Group, one of the principal authors of the report had told CBC News earlier that cyberspying allegations have been made for years against government and non-governmental organizations alike.

"But beyond allegations, we really haven't had any hard evidence," Rohozinski said. "So, what we decided to do in our investigation is build that hard evidence."

Policy response needed: Deibert

Deibert said now that people are aware that this type of activity is taking place, policy-makers in Canada and other countries need to develop strategies to prevent this type of espionage from happening.

The GhostNet investigation began after the authors were asked to look into allegations that the Chinese were hacking into computers set up by the Tibetan exile community. The researchers eventually found a much wider network of computers that had been infected by hackers with malware that allowed the hackers to gain control of the computers and look at all files.

Three out of the four servers in the network were based in China while a fourth was in the United States.

 

[markpoint]

Chinese Cyber Warfare Targets US and Japan but not others in Asia 

Chinese government and military have recruited almost half million to conduct its cyber warfare strategy against US, Japan, Taiwan, etc. which are distributed at military, security, central governmental and some of provincial governmental organizations. Since Yugoslavia war in 90s, Chinese government and military realized that China's primary threaten is US and Japan and its strategy target focus on the future war against US, Japan and other forces.

 

[dangerboy]

Chinese Cyber Warfare Targets US and Japan but not others in Asia 

Chinese government and military have recruited almost half million to conduct its cyber warfare strategy against US, Japan, Taiwan, etc. which are distributed at military, security, central governmental and some of provincial governmental organizations. Since Yugoslavia war in 90s, Chinese government and military realized that China's primary threaten is US and Japan and its strategy target focus on the future war against US, Japan and other forces.

Do you have any sources to back these claims, or are these just your opinions ?

 

[tomahawk6]

Strategypage:

Ghost Net
March 30, 2009: Nearly a year ago, the Dali Lama asked computer security experts to examine whether his computers, and those of organizations that support freedom for Tibet (which the Dali Lama is the exiled spiritual leader of). Soon, more experts at the University of Toronto were also called in, and after ten months of carefully examining thousands of PCs, it was discovered that 1,200 computers belonging to anti-Chinese Tibet groups, and other governments they were in communication with, had been infected with a hidden computer program (a virus inserted by hackers) that gave control of the computers to someone, or some group, in China. The security experts dubbed the clandestine hackers effort, Ghost Net. The University of Toronto team did not accuse the Chinese government of being behind this Cyber War operation, although they did find evidence of the Chinese government taking advantage of information gathered by Ghost Net. Some at the University of Toronto speculated this might actually be a CIA operation, to try and discredit China.

When confronted with all this evidence, the Chinese government denied any knowledge of it. Computer security researchers at Cambridge University in Britain, who participated in the investigation, do accuse China of being responsible for Ghost Net.

 

[a_majoor]

Some at the University of Toronto speculated this might actually be a CIA operation, to try and discredit China.

Seems like computers were not the only things infected and compromised.

Only in Canada eh?....Pity

 

[Journeyman]

DNI OPEN SOURCE CENTER VIEWS PRC MEDIA

The structure and operation of China's growing news media sector were examined by the U.S. Intelligence Community's Open Source Center in two previously unpublished reports.

"Sweeping social and economic changes triggered by more than two decades of reform in China have led to equally sweeping changes in China's vast, state-controlled media environment, particularly in the quantity and diversity of media sources and the development of the Internet," according to a 2007 OSC survey.

At the same time, however, "all pertinent information continues to be filtered through party censors to ensure that it is consistent with official policy. The party exercises especially tight control over the core mainstream media which deliver domestic and international news along with politically sensitive information."

See "PRC Media Guide," Open Source Center, March 21, 2007:
http://www.fas.org/irp/dni/osc/prc-media.pdf

The state organs that supervise and regulate Chinese media were discussed recently in "PRC State Council Websites Overseeing Media," OSC Media Aid, March 17, 2009:
http://www.fas.org/irp/dni/osc/prc-media-state.html


-------------
Produced by SECRECY NEWS, a publication of the Federation of American Scientists' Project on Government Secrecy, and forwarded via IntelForum, a forum dedicated to the scholarly study of intelligence history, theory, and practice.

 

[a_majoor]

The Chinese and Indians have made it clear they want to place manned missions on the Moon, now the Russians seem set to get back in the game as well:

http://technology.sympatico.msn.ca/News/ContentPosting?newsitemid=0744824027&feedname=CP-SCIENCE&show=False&number=0&showbyline=True&subtitle=&detect=&abc=abc&date=True&paginationenabled=false

Russia moves to design next generation spaceship capable of reaching moon

07/04/2009 2:16:00 PM

Vladimir Isachenkov, THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
MOSCOW - The Russian space agency has ordered design work to start for a next-generation spaceship capable of flying missions to the moon, setting the ground for a potential new space race with the United States.


The space agency granted the state-controlled RKK Energiya company a US$23 million contract for initial work on a new, reusable craft to replace the 40-year-old Soyuz.

The as-yet-unnamed Russian spaceship could emerge as a potential competitor to NASA's prospective Orion spacecraft.

Design requirements for the Russian craft appear similar to Orion's specification, prompting some experts to nickname it "Orionski."

Orion is scheduled to carrying humans to the International Space Station beginning in 2015, and to the moon by 2020.

Alexei Krasnov, the chief of manned space programs for the Russian space agency, said last week that the prospective Russian spacecraft is set to make its maiden flight before 2020, without elaborating.

James Oberg, an experienced aerospace engineer who worked on NASA's space shuttle program and is now a space consultant, wrote in a commentary that the new Russian space program could help NASA win funds for its plan to return astronauts to the moon.

"This will give NASA a long hoped for boost in Congress by echoing the space race motivations of the 1960s," Oberg said.

Energiya beat the other leading state-controlled spacecraft builder, the Khrunichev company, for the prestigious order. It was announced on a government website.

Energiya has until June 2010 to complete the initial design. The company builds the Soyuz and its unmanned cargo version, named Progress, which are not reusable.

Krasnov said the new spacecraft will be capable of carrying a crew of six and a payload of 500 kilograms to orbit around the Earth. The Soyuz can only carry a crew of three.

Krasnov told reporters last week that the new spaceship should also be capable of delivering a crew of four to lunar orbit.

"We want the new ship to be a step into the future, not just a scaled up version of the Soyuz," he said.

Russia plans to start construction next year of Vostochny, a new space launch facility in the far eastern Amur region near China. The new cosmodrome is expected to host launches of unmanned spacecraft beginning in 2015 and the first manned missions starting in 2018.

Russia currently uses the Soviet-built Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan for all of its manned space missions and most important commercial launches. Another launch facility in Plesetsk, northern Russia, is mostly used to launch military satellites.

Windfall oil revenues of the past years have allowed the Kremlin to spend more on Russia's space program, which had suffered badly in the post-Soviet economic meltdown. But with Russia facing its worst financial crisis since 1998, observers say the government may find it hard to fund the ambitious new program.

 

[CougarKing]

Yet more to worry about as China seeks to challenge the West on close to equal terms?

http://www.military.com/features/0,15240,188787,00.html


China Adds Precision Strike to Capabilities
Aviation Week's DTI | Richard D. Fisher, Jr. | April 09, 2009
This article first appeared in Defense Technology International.

China has been developing and purchasing weapons for precision-strike warfare. This is the hard edge of the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) doctrinal drive toward using increasingly sophisticated information technologies such as C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) to improve the capabilities of weapon systems. The PLA's near-term goals appear to be greater asymmetric capabilities to target U.S. naval assets in the western Pacific and in space as part of an anti-access strategy. Long-term, however, greater precision will be a feature of most new weapon systems.


China's growing C4ISR capabilities were demonstrated in March by its coordinated two-fleet operation to intercept two U.S. Navy ocean survey vessels. Chinese ships found and harassed the USNS Victorious, operating in the Yellow Sea, and USNS Impeccable, which was about 75 mi. south of Hainan Island. The fallout was diplomatic, as Washington and Beijing clashed over interpretations of the Law of the Sea Treaty, which Beijing contends gives it rights to deny access to military survey missions. This incident, though, was reminiscent in timing and scope to the April 2001 clash that saw China "capture" a U.S. Navy EP-3 electronic intelligence aircraft off Hainan.

China's aggressive challenge of Japanese claims in the East China Sea, plus Washington's refusal to cease its survey missions could be flashpoints. In February, a provincial Communist Party newspaper contained a threat to sink U.S. survey ships.

In this second of three articles on China's growing regional power, DTI examines the country's efforts to improve its ability to target and destroy threats.

Since the early 1990s, Chinese military scholars have been warning of the need for China to prepare to defend against, and if necessary, conduct military operations in space. In late 2006 reports emerged of China's use of high-power ground-based lasers to "dazzle" U.S. surveillance satellites. On Feb. 11, 2007, China launched the first successful intercept by its SC-19 direct-ascent antisatellite (ASAT) system, derived from its KT-1 solid-fuel space-launch vehicle, with an interceptor stage whose development was likely aided by China's micro-satellite programs. A target FY-2 weather satellite was probably illuminated by large phased-array radar developed for tracking Shenzhou manned space capsules. A far less-noted potential co-orbital ASAT demonstration occurred on Sept. 27, 2008, when the Shenzhou-7 manned spacecraft, which had just launched a BX-1 nanosatellite, passed within 45 km. (28 mi.) of the International Space Station. Following the U.S. Navy's shootdown of an errant satellite on Feb. 21, 2008, and a Mar. 5, 2008, announcement that Russia would resume ASAT development, it is likely that China will continue ASAT testing.

China's direct-ascent ASAT also proves that it is capable of developing a long-range antiballistic missile (ABM) system, a U.S. pursuit that China has opposed. China had an ABM program from 1963-80 that produced a short-range interceptor prototype and long-range radar. Chinese sources told DTI at the recent IDEX expo in Abu Dhabi that they have tested the new FD-2000 surface-to-air missile (SAM) in an antitactical ballistic missile (ATBM) mode. Developed with help from Russia's Almaz-Antey Co., the FD-2000 also draws from the earlier passive-guided FT-2000 SAM, which reportedly benefited from U.S. Patriot SAM technology. These indigenous SAMs are entering PLA service, and will complement about 1,000 Almaz-Antey S-300/PMU-1/PMU-2 SAMs purchased since the early 1990s, giving the PLA air force the most formidable air-defense network in Asia. The PLA has also developed short-range SAM systems -- including man-portable air-defense systems -- for tracked vehicles and trucks. Among these is the TY-90 Yitian for trucks and armored personnel carriers that was disclosed in 2005, but displayed for the first time at IDEX this year.

Increasing precision is also the hallmark of new PLA surface-to-surface missiles and air-launched weapons. New Chinese nuclear ballistic missile warheads feature smaller sharp-tip warheads, signifying higher precision. One warhead configuration for the 12,000-km.-range DF-31A ICBM places at least one warhead on a delivery bus that is apparently capable of radical maneuvering to evade ABM defenses.

Medium- and short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) are also being upgraded for greater precision. The U.S. and Japanese navies have long been concerned with the PLA program to create an antiship ballistic missile, by placing a maneuverable terminally guided warhead on the 2,400-km.-range DF-21, and likely, on the 600-km. DF-15. Asian military sources are also concerned that a new 3,000-km. version of the DF-21 may have multiple terminally guided warheads.

An early 2009 Taiwanese estimate places the DF‑15, DF-11 Mod2 and new land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs) of the second artillery missile force targeting Taiwan at more than 1,500, with newer versions having navigation satellite (navsat) guidance. In 2007 a Chinese source told DTI that the PLA will also be using two new shorter-range SRBMs, the truck-mounted 250-km. B-611M and 150-km. air-transportable P-12. Both are maneuverable, navsat-guided weapons with modular warheads. The PLA is also developing longer-range artillery rocket-based SRBMs, like the 200-km. navsat-guided WS-3. Some Chinese sources indicate that an antiradar or passive-guided 300-km. version of the WS series is possible.

Asian sources say the PLA has developed two families of strategic-range LACMs: the DH-10, which equips new units of the Second Artillery, and YJ-62/C-602, which equips PLA navy destroyers and land-based antiship missile units, and is to be developed into an air-launched version for the PLA air force. The air force is expected to equip a new version of the 1950s-era Soviet Tupolev Tu-16 Badger bomber, the Xian H-6K, with the weapon. The H-6Ks modified with more powerful engines, now have a potential 3,000-km. radius -- enough to reach Guam. Rumors have long surrounded a potential long-range bomber program at Xian Aircraft Co., and a new stealthy version of Xian's JH-7A fighter bomber is also in development.

Tactical combat aircraft in the PLA air force and navy are receiving new Russian and indigenously designed air-to-air and ground-attack weapons. The air force's first Sukhoi Su-27SK fighters had the helmet-sighted Vympel R-73 missile a decade before the Raytheon AIM-9X entered U.S. service. The BVR self-guided Vympel R-77 followed the Su-30MKK into PLA service early this decade. But new Chengdu Aircraft Corp. J-10 and Shenyang Aircraft Corp. J-11B multirole fighters will carry air-to-air missiles designed by Luoyang Opto-Electric Co. (LOEC), which include the self-guided PL-12, thought to have a range approaching 100 km. in lofted delivery. Chinese sources also indicate LOEC is developing a high off-boresight air-to-air missile (AAM) similar to the South African Denel A-Darter, and a long-range ramjet-powered AAM.

Russian Su-30s in PLA service have been equipped with several guided munitions, including the Zvezda Kh-31 antiradar and antiship ramjet missile, Zvezda Kh-59 interdiction missile and optical image-correlation-guided KAB series bombs. At the 2005 Moscow air show, a Russian source disclosed that Russia had assisted China's development of electro-optical targeting pods, which have been photographed on J-10, JH-7A and some Hongdu Q-5 fighter-bombers. These will help guide two new families of laser- and navsat-guided bombs developed by LOEC and China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp. (CASC). The latter's FT family includes the 500-kg. (1,100-lb.) FT-1 navsat-guided bomb, the FT-2, which adds range-extending wings, the 250-kg. FT-3 and the 100-kg. FT-5, which is reportedly comparable with Boeing's Small Diameter Bomb. At last November's Zhuhai air show, LOEC revealed a dual-optical navsat-guided bomb. CASC's bombs can be expected to follow suit.

Precision is being packed into smaller munitions like the new 45-kg. AR-1, a laser-guided missile designed for the CH-3 unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV), similar in capability to the U.S. Predator-1. Guizhou Aircraft Co. has likely developed a larger turbofan UCAV comparable to the MQ-9 Predator-B/Reaper.

Most of China's new precision-strike systems are for sale. Pakistan and Iran have benefited from China's ballistic and cruise missile technology, and from sales of conventional systems. Many more countries are likely to consider the $22-million Chengdu FC-1 and $41-million J-10 fighters, especially when equipped with precision-guided munitions like the PL-12 and FT-1. This form of power projection will soon be joined by the PLA's increasing power-projection capabilities, the subject of the final installment.

Richard D. Fisher, Jr., is a senior fellow with the International Assessment and Strategy Center of Arlington, Va., and author of China's Military Modernization: Building for Regional and Global Reach (Praeger, 2008).

Photo: Richard D. Fisher, Jr. for DTI

 

[Michael OLeary]

China's birth limits create risky gender gap
One study suggests result could be increasing crime, social problems
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30155400/

BEIJING - China has 32 million more young men than young women — a gender gap that could lead to increasing crime —

I can't find a reference, but didn't some sociologists a few years ago try to make a connection between demographic or social stresses in male populations and conditions leading to conflict and war?

 

[CougarKing]

China's birth limits create risky gender gap
One study suggests result could be increasing crime, social problems
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30155400/

I can't find a reference, but didn't some sociologists a few years ago try to make a connection between demographic or social stresses in male populations and conditions leading to conflict and war?

Both Mr. Campbell and Mr. Thucydides emphasized that earlier in this thread, as well as the coming demographic crisis in China for that generation of males who were the result of China's one-child policy. Hence Mr. Thucydides' allusion to the "next gay superpower" since Sparta may apply?  ;D

But somehow, on a more serious note, would we really expect that generation of single males born from that flawed one-child policy to seriously lead their country on a war path once some of them are in charge? Perhaps while they are in their 20s and 30s, they would be more susceptible to influence by elements of the "Red Dynasty" who would use Han-centric nationalism as a distraction from any economic troubles at home.  In at least one of his lectures, Dr. Pan Wei discussed how he noticed a growing number of what he called "effeminate, lazy, spoiled, even fat, boys" (pang zi)in mainland schools. China, in spite of its experience with Maoist-Communism, has always been more of a patriarchial society, and the fact that boys were favoured in such a one-child policy meant that couples who were lucky enough to have a son meant they would spoil that son rotten, at least in urban settings; the rural areas (nong'cun/tsun-农村) would obviously see both sons and daughters working the fields. He also said that daughters, in contrast,  who were born to such families who preferred sons, and didn't appreciate them as much, often ended up being more strong-willed and brazen when it counted, so therefore more hardworking than the boys of that particular group/generation.

 

[tomahawk6]

Killing their female newborns so the parents could try again to have a son was one out growth of this policy.

 

[Kirkhill]

Mom and Dad may not value "brazen" 20-something daughter but I'm betting many 20-something lads are all to willing to chase after that particular butterfly.  Lots of free meals and expensive gifts.....earned the old fashioned way.

Let's see: opportunities for males?

Thucydides's Spartan solution, with or without the gore.
Self-service.
Celibacy.
Serial monogamy.
Polyandry.
Disappear down the mines or fall off a high-rise under construction.
Join the army and you are back to the Spartans with or without the peculiar associations.

Some guys are just going to be really busy trying to out compete the other guys.  Not much time left in the day for troublesome stuff like earning a living and taking over the world.

 

[a_majoor]

Mom and Dad may not value "brazen" 20-something daughter but I'm betting many 20-something lads are all to willing to chase after that particular butterfly.  Lots of free meals and expensive gifts.....earned the old fashioned way.

Let's see: opportunities for males?

Thucydides's Spartan solution, with or without the gore.
Self-service.
Celibacy.
Serial monogamy.
Polyandry.
Disappear down the mines or fall off a high-rise under construction.
Join the army and you are back to the Spartans with or without the peculiar associations.

Some guys are just going to be really busy trying to out compete the other guys.  Not much time left in the day for troublesome stuff like earning a living and taking over the world.

Which is really the point. Most of these solutions are at odds with the social and cultural makeup of Chinese civilization (in the Huntington sense of the word), and while I am sure Edward and Cougar Daddy can supply lots more details, I think the short answer is the breakdown of the cultural foundations of a society is the downfall of that society.

Remember Chinese civilization has a very long and (relatively) stable tradition; today's "Red Dynasty" has lots of cultural similarities with the preceding Imperial dynasties which provide a great deal of stability and legitimacy. Breaking these bonds with large numbers of unattached males doing any or all of the things Kirkhill outlines breaks the legitimacy of the Red Dynasty, with potentially disastrous results (the Warring States period, anyone?)

(edit for spelling and grammer)

 

[Yrys]

Chinese schools on the credit crunch, on BBC News for children

A cluster of schools from Shaan Xi Province in the heart of China have joined the Cruncharama. 
See pictures from two of the schools and read some of their views.


Find them on the Cruncharama map.

 

[chanman]

China's birth limits create risky gender gap
One study suggests result could be increasing crime, social problems
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30155400/

I can't find a reference, but didn't some sociologists a few years ago try to make a connection between demographic or social stresses in male populations and conditions leading to conflict and war?

An older article from 2005 (subscription required) http://www.economist.com/surveys/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_PGRJNGV

The other consequence of smaller families has been a sex ratio strongly skewed in favour of boys. In China there are 118 boys for every 100 girls born, compared with a natural ratio of 105 to 100. India's figures are also skewed, but to a lesser extent. The most recent census, in 2001, showed 108 boys under the age of seven for every 100 girls. In some of the most prosperous states, however, the imbalance is much more marked: in Delhi, for instance, the ratio at birth in the first half of last year was 122 boys to 100 girls.

In both countries, the alarming numbers result from a confluence of tradition and modern technology. Sons carry the family name and land and provide an insurance policy for old age; daughters go off to look after somebody else's old age, and, in India, require a dowry. As more people can afford to pay for ultrasound scans and illegal selective abortions, they choose to avoid the longer-term expense of having girls.

Nobody knows what effect this preponderance of boys will have on Chinese and Indian society in the future. The trend might correct itself as scarcity forces up the value of girls. Yet in prosperous northern Indian states, far from commanding a bride-price, women whose families have failed to stump up a sufficient dowry still get killed and disfigured. It is the saddest of market failures.

I guess there could be room for two Spartas?  Or perhaps the big markets for Activision Blizzard's MMORPG (Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Game) division.

IIRC, many other countries have more girls than boys.  If the global ratio isn't too far off, then very theoretically, some migration can resolve the gender imbalance.  In practice... many of the men unable to find wives will be the poorest of society - especially poor peasant farmers.  Millions of poorly educated, underemployed, undersexed young men roaming the countryside... maybe not the best thing for social stability.

My 2008 Edition Pocket World in Figures from The Economist lists Chinese military as having 2.25 million regulars and 800,000 reservists and continuing to draw down, so the 'Sparta' option would require a reversal of that trend.  And that's not going to do much more than put a dent in the numbers of potentially discontented young men.

 

[medaid]

EDIT: As a sidenote, don‘t the Chinese Special Forces have the coolest insignia ever?

   

That is not a Chinese Special Forces patch... It is a Taiwan, Republic of China Army Amphibious Frogmen patch.

It's Republic of China, not People's Republic of China.

EDIT: Just realized that .jpg was damn long time ago... oh well... good to clarify things I suppose