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CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

The view from the West


Alberta is suspicious that Ottawa will slap an export tax on oil and gas to offset economic damage from tariffs, especially in Ontario and Quebec.

But that’s not a popular idea, even among leaders elsewhere. Quebec Premier Francois Legault said any money extracted from Alberta should be returned to Alberta.

There’s always a worry that Ottawa and Ontario are cooking up an anti-West deal. It has happened before, believe me.

But Ontario today is deeply, gravely challenged, far more than any other province.

This explains the near-panic we often sense in Premier Doug Ford. He may call an election as early as next week. On Wednesday, he mildly scolded Smith for not being quite onside.

A desperate man, with good cause.

The funny thing about Ontario is that tariffs built it. Sir John A. MacDonald's National Policy guaranteed that Ontario and Quebec would receive raw materials from the West and ship manufactured goods to the West.

 
Trump has apparently doubled down and reiterated that the U.S. doesn’t need our imports, and that if we want to avoid tariffs we can become a state.

Would not Congress have a thing or two to say about that?
 

My principle take-aways for Canada:

The Green Revolution is dead. Carbon is back.
Coal is back in play.
Our oil, gas and coal aren't worth what they were yesterday.

Rare earths and electrical materials are similarly reduced in value.

We are going to have to find 5% of GDP for defence.

Good news.

It is going to be easier to find 5% of a shrinking economy.

The only way to increase our GDP is to exploit our cheap and abundant energy both by using it domestically and by shipping it abroad to places that don't have it. Places like Asia. Europe still has coal, gas and oil reserves that have not been fully exploited. And they have the technologies to exploit them cleanly and profitably.

....

I see that the Bloc leader is musing about making Quebec more self-sufficient by building greenhouses. Does he want some Carbon Dioxide for those tomatoes?
 

US coal producers’ shares climbed after President Donald Trump promoted the fuel as a power source during a video address Thursday to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

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Peabody Energy Corp., the top US coal miner, surged as much as 7.6%, the most intraday since the day following the November presidential election. Core Natural Resources Inc. gained as much as 2.9% and the Russell 3000’s coal subsector index rose as much as 4.2%.

Trump’s support for fossil fuels is well known, but coal didn’t receive as much attention during this campaign as it did in prior elections. The new president is seeking to revamp US energy policy with an increased focus on oil and natural gas, and his comments Thursday demonstrated he also is keen to bolster the dirtiest fossil fuel.

“Nothing can destroy coal. Not the weather, not a bomb,” Trump told attendees at the economic conference. “It’s a great backup.”

It's a great backup. Stored energy. Potential. And it doesn't require any special storage or maintenance or capital investment to store it. It is safe until you burn it.

Takes the heat out of both rare earths and nuclear power.

How many scrubbers and greenhouses can you build for the price of a nuclear power plant?

If you are going to mine lithium why not mine coal?
 
Trump has apparently doubled down and reiterated that the U.S. doesn’t need our imports, and that if we want to avoid tariffs we can become a state.

Yup - from the POTUS47 version ...
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Yup - from the POTUS47 version ...
View attachment 90715

Well…I mean, Canada’s official position is that there should be less oil and gas going out of Camada, not more. Japan doesn’t need Canadian O&G, Germany doesn’t need Canadian O&G. We know, because Trudeau told us so. Maybe the US is finally coming around to see the light that Trudeau told Asia and Europe already? 🤷🏻‍♂️
 
Maybe now some will understand why we need a full and united response.

Trump doesn’t give a shit about our energy or anything else. For the next few years at least, the US is an unreliable ally and should be dealt with through that lens.
 
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Maybe now some will understand why we need a full and united response.

Trump doesn’t give a shit about our energy or anything else. For the next few years at least, the US is an unreliable ally and should be dealt with through that lens.

Unfortunately for us, Canada is viewed as an unreliable ally when it comes to defence spending (%GDP and military output) and energy export to allies in a crisis situation (EU countries and Japan seeking LNG to which we said sorry no business case).

Are we about to enter the FO phase?
 
Maybe now some will understand why we need a full and united response.

Trump doesn’t give a shit about our energy or anything else. For the next few years at least, the US is an unreliable ally and should be dealt with through that lens.
Pretty much what a few US administrations have felt about Chinanada for years. Canada is reaping now what it has sown through its inactions.
 
Maybe now some will understand why we need a full and united response.

Trump doesn’t give a shit about our energy or anything else. For the next few years at least, the US is an unreliable ally and should be dealt with in that lens.
He is basically declaring economic war on Canada and is trying to make us bend to his will. His psychiatrist niece, Mary Trump, has been saying for years now that he has serious psychological disorders. What he’s doing to Canada is not really about deficits or the flow of drugs or people flowing across the border. It’s a personal thing with him to satisfy his sick needs to inflect suffering on others in order to satisfy his frail ego.
 
It is. I find it incredible that people believe this is just about Trump from the last few weeks. This has been a very long time coming. Trump is going to keep the pressure on until Canada changes Government. Also really simple.
 
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