CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[QV]

Sure. What does that have to do with selling out to the US? Net migration existed before her.

If you mean becoming american
Selling out Canada


Then yes she is certainly in step with all of those things.

Do you disagree with what she says?

 

[Remius]

Do you disagree with what she says?

she says a lot of things. Her actions is what I disagree with. That and her separatist leanings. She’s talking out one side of her mouth.

But that video you posted seems to have aged badly in the last 30mins or so

 

[QV]

Do you agree or no?

 

[Remius]

Do you agree or no?

With what? That she wants to see pipelines built across the country and drop barriers between provinces? Yes absolutely we should.

Her position that everyone is willing to sacrifice just Alberta? No.

Doesn’t mean selling out your country to do it. She could learn a lesson from Scott Moe, Doug Ford and ironically Premier Legault.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I though DS was great in both of these interviews

I'd also like to give praise to CBC on a non Combative and inquisitive interview.

 

[The Bread Guy]

If you're interested in the minutiae of such things, here's the trade order:

America First Trade Policy – The White House

January 20, 2025 MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF STATE THE SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE THE SECRETARY OF COMMERCE THE SECRETARY OF

www.whitehouse.gov

Also attached if link doesn't work.

Key bits:

... (c) The United States Trade Representative, in consultation with the Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of Commerce, and the Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing, shall undertake a review of, and identify, any unfair trade practices by other countries and recommend appropriate actions to remedy such practices under applicable authorities, including, but not limited to, the Constitution of the United States; sections 71 through 75 of title 15, United States Code; sections 1337, 1338, 2252, 2253, and 2411 of title 19, United States Code; section 1701 of title 50, United States Code; and trade agreement implementing acts.

(d) The United States Trade Representative shall commence the public consultation process set out in section 4611(b) of title 19, United States Code, with respect to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in preparation for the July 2026 review of the USMCA. Additionally, the United States Trade Representative, in consultation with the heads of other relevant executive departments and agencies, shall assess the impact of the USMCA on American workers, farmers, ranchers, service providers, and other businesses and make recommendations regarding the United States’ participation in the agreement. The United States Trade Representative shall also report to appropriate congressional committees on the operation of the USMCA and related matters consistent with section 4611(b) of title 19, United States Code ...

 

[The Bread Guy]

Survey says ....

Canadian Unity: Ford & Smith’s contrasting messages on Trump’s threatened tariffs reflect regional divisions -

Three-in-10 Albertans feel respected by rest of the country, twice as many say this in Ontario (64%) January 21, 2025 – President Donald Trump’s threat of a 25-per-cent tariff on all Canadian goods is on hold, at least for now. Reports broke Monday, the same day he was inaugurated for the second...

angusreid.org

Some highlights

 

[Remius]

The US is positioning itself to not have to rely on our oil.

 

[Good2Golf]

The US is positioning itself to not have to rely on our oil.

The US does NOT rely on Canadian oil to power its nation, only to make more national revenue.

 

[The Bread Guy]

The US does NOT rely on Canadian oil to power its nation ...

If we believe the US gets between 50 and 60% of its crude from Canada, there's a case to be made on the bit in yellow is true at least to some extent.

Down side for us, though, is that 90+% of Canada's black gold heads south, which (as others have discussed in detail way better than I can) leaves us vulnerable, especially given we can't just keep the oil, move it and process it all in Canada.

 

[Czech_pivo]

If you're interested in the minutiae of such things, here's the trade order:

America First Trade Policy – The White House

January 20, 2025 MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF STATE THE SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE THE SECRETARY OF COMMERCE THE SECRETARY OF

www.whitehouse.gov

Also attached if link doesn't work.

Key bits:

An area of concern that I've been wondering about is the banking sector. Our banks have had basically carte blanche access to the US in terms for expansion and takeovers for a number of decades now, to the point that TD Bank has more bank branches in the US than in Canada. Scotiabank just bought into Key Bank in terms of a 15% equity stake just a handful of months ago. BMO is a player in the Chicago/Midwest area. TD is a top player along the US East Coast. I've wondered why Trump hasn't made a mention of this. I feel that this is slumbering issue. Same with access to our airlines and telecoms. Waiting for the shoe to drop.

 

[lenaitch]

An area of concern that I've been wondering about is the banking sector. Our banks have had basically carte blanche access to the US in terms for expansion and takeovers for a number of decades now, to the point that TD Bank has more bank branches in the US than in Canada. Scotiabank just bought into Key Bank in terms of a 15% equity stake just a handful of months ago. BMO is a player in the Chicago/Midwest area. TD is a top player along the US East Coast. I've wondered why Trump hasn't made a mention of this. I feel that this is slumbering issue. Same with access to our airlines and telecoms. Waiting for the shoe to drop.

No doubt to be included in the USMCA which he wants to open back up early.

 

[Good2Golf]

If we believe the US gets between 50 and 60% of its crude from Canada, there's a case to be made on the bit in yellow is true at least to some extent.

43% from Canada

(net 3.6MBBD/day from Canada of 10.15MBBD/day total)

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

US still exports MORE oil than it imports, 10.15MBBD out vs 8.51MBBD in per day, or a 19.3% oil SURPLUS.

Down side for us, though, is that 90+% of Canada's black gold heads south, which (as others have discussed in detail way better than I can) leaves us vulnerable, especially given we can't just keep the oil, move it and process it all in Canada.

A stupid move.

If Canada shut off the oil taps tomorrow, the US would stop exporting 0.8MBBD/day to Canada and keep another 3.62MBBD/day that it otherwise sells to Asia and Europe. This is why Canada’s cutting off its nose to spite its face threat of cutting oil is stupid and Smith’s non-apocalyptic perspective shared with Trump is a much better approach.

The issue remains Canada is an irresponsible security laggard whose inability to deal substantively with Chinese interference is perceived (reasonably so) as an existential threat to US continental security.

 

[Kirkhill]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/trade-united-states-tariffs-kinew-trump-1.7437399

Northern port gives Manitoba card to play in potential Canada-U.S. trade spat, premier says​

Churchill also has 'huge' opportunities when it comes to mining, agriculture and energy: Premier Wab Kinew​

Ozten Shebahkeget · CBC News · Posted: Jan 21, 2025 2:26 PM MST | Last Updated: 13 minutes ago

Manitoba also has a card to play because it's technically a maritime province, Kinew said. The northern town of Churchill is connected to rail lines and has a deepsea port — things that could help ensure Arctic sovereignty and national security, he said.

Churchill also has "huge" opportunities when it comes to mining, agriculture and energy, said Kinew.

Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew says he and other premiers continue to band together to remind politicians south of the border of the critical trade relationship between Canada and the U.S.

Canadian leaders have made a number of trips in recent months to advocate against 25 per cent tariffs proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, and Kinew says a group of premiers will head to Washington on Feb. 12 to continue those efforts.

"If there's a Trump tariff tax, that's going to raise prices on consumers in the States, and I don't think anyone wants that," he said at a Tuesday news conference in Brandon.

He said he has been talking with leaders in North and South Dakota about the implications of potential tariffs. Politicians from both states have influence in Trump's new administration and recognize the importance of cross-border agricultural trade, said Kinew.

...

Danielle, Scott, Wab - Churchill

...

I hope Wab considers running for PM someday.

....

Aces in the hole -

Kristi Noem - Ex Governor of South Dakota now Trump's Secretary of Homeland Security
Doug Burgum - Ex Governor of North Dakota now Trump's Secretary of the Interior
Chris Wright - Oil Executive now Trump's Secretary of Energy

...

Trump has set up his External Revenue Service. He needs that to collect Tariffs. Tariffs can be seen as taxes. They can also be seen as fines.

My sense is that Trump sees Tariffs more as fines but, like most North American police departments, also sees them as a means of financing operations.

How pleased would the police be if people stopped breaking the law?

...

I think @Good2Golf is closest to the mark. Real estate agents live by a mantra: Location. Location. Location.
I suggest Trump's mantra now is: China. China. China. Especially when it comes to foreign affairs.

Foreign interference.
Bogus school visas.
Temporary Work Permits.
Canadian bank transparency.

Add in a bit of Border theatre.

And, of course, 2.5% of GDP to Defence (2% was yesterday's news. The price has gone up. Even 2.5% may not be enough).

...

My biggest concern is that Trudeau is thoroughly enjoying using Trump and Smith as punching bags. That is always a winning strategy for Ottawa and the Liberal Party. And Trudeau has no skin in the game.

He has no incentive to resolve this issue in a timely manner.

 

[The Bread Guy]

43% from Canada

(net 3.6MBBD/day from Canada of 10.15MBBD/day total)

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

US still exports MORE oil than it imports, 10.15MBBD out vs 8.51MBBD in per day, or a 19.3% oil SURPLUS.

You're right re: they send more than they get overall. The 10.15MBBD/day, though, is how much the US sends, not receives. If I'm doing my own math right from the source both of us cite, looking at Canada's net, almost 4 barrels out of 10 coming into the U.S. daily still comes from Canada, eh. Admittedly, not the 52% the chart says, but still pretty honkin'.

If Canada shut off the oil taps tomorrow, the US would stop exporting 0.8MBBD/day to Canada and keep another 3.62MBBD/day that it otherwise sells to Asia and Europe. This is why Canada’s cutting off its nose to spite its face threat of cutting oil is stupid and Smith’s non-apocalyptic perspective shared with Trump is a much better approach.

Fair ball. Politically, though, the whole "who's willing to take a hit as everyone in Canada pays a price if tariffs hit?" question will remain debated. With "truth" still to be in the eye of the beholder.

... The issue remains Canada is an irresponsible security laggard whose inability to deal substantively with Chinese interference is perceived (reasonably so) as an existential threat to US continental security.

Agreed it's a threat to security AND one that's been sloppily managed (to be kind), but have to agree to disagree on the "existential" nature of the threat to the continent.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Apparently, last night President Trump stated that he might bring in tariffs against Canada on 01 February.

 

[Kirkhill]

You're right re: they send more than they get overall. The 10.15MBBD/day, though, is how much the US sends, not receives. If I'm doing my own math right from the source both of us cite, looking at Canada's net, almost 4 barrels out of 10 coming into the U.S. daily still comes from Canada, eh. Admittedly, not the 52% the chart says, but still pretty honkin'.
View attachment 90685

Fair ball. Politically, though, the whole "who's willing to take a hit as everyone in Canada pays a price if tariffs hit?" question will remain debated. With "truth" still to be in the eye of the beholder.

Agreed it's a threat to security AND one that's been sloppily managed (to be kind), but have to agree to disagree on the "existential" nature of the threat to the continent.

Existential is also in the eye of the beholder. And the critical eye is that of POTUS47.

...

Also, I wonder what Canadians would perceive as an existential threat? Beyond POTUS47 that is.

 

[Good2Golf]

My biggest concern is that Trudeau is thoroughly enjoying using Trump and Smith as punching bags. That is always a winning strategy for Ottawa and the Liberal Party. And Trudeau has no skin in the game.

I think he may think himself smarter than he is, but he has set the LPC up for a mega-shellacking…

Existential is also in the eye of the beholder. And the critical eye is that of POTUS47.

...

Also, I wonder what Canadians would perceive as an existential threat? Beyond POTUS47 that is.

Canadians might have their eyes opened significantly come next Friday (31 Jan) when Justice Hogue releases her final report on Foreign Interference in Canada.

I’ve heard rumblings from inside the DC Beltway that if the report is muffled, then 47 is going to release much of what the US has on China in Canada, including all the names of the compromised and/or complicit.

If folks though *tough talk on economics was exciting…

 

[brihard]

I think he may think himself smarter than he is, but he has set the LPC up for a mega-shellacking…



Canadians might have their eyes opened significantly come next Friday (31 Jan) when Justice Hogue releases her final report on Foreign Interference in Canada.

I’ve heard rumblings from inside the DC Beltway that if the report is muffled, then 47 is going to release much of what the US has on China in Canada, including all the names of the compromised and/or complicit.

If folks though touch talk on economics was exciting…
View attachment 90686

If the U.S. wants to release what they have from their own intelligence, great. Their sources are theirs to partly or fully expose as they see fit. Hopefully they’d also be willing to let Canadian authorities disclose and use that information in court as evidence and see it challenged in the course of prosecutions as applicable.

 

[Czech_pivo]

If the U.S. wants to release what they have from their own intelligence, great. Their sources are theirs to partly or fully expose as they see fit. Hopefully they’d also be willing to let Canadian authorities disclose and use that information in court as evidence and see it challenged in the course of prosecutions as applicable.

Here’s a thought, their source(s) could be one of ‘us’ who decided that they didn’t like the ‘lack of seriousness’ or the ‘lack of attention’ this received here and decided to inform the Americans.
Wouldn’t that be something….