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Afghanistan: Why we should be there (or not), how to conduct the mission (or not) & when to leave

Excellent uptodate analysis of the situation Here from the New York Times:
Just the start, more at link:

The State of the War
We believe that the United States has a powerful national interest in Afghanistan, in depriving Al Qaeda of a safe haven on either side of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. This country would also do enormous damage to its moral and strategic standing if it now simply abandoned the Afghan people to the Taliban’s brutalities.

But, like many Americans, we are increasingly confused and anxious about the strategy in Afghanistan and wonder whether, at this late date, there is a chance of even minimal success.

The trove of military documents recently published in The Times showed, once again, why this is so hard: the weakness of the Afghan Army and the corruption of the Afghan government; the double game being played by Pakistan; the failure of the Bush administration, for seven years, to invest enough troops, money or attention in a war that it allowed to drag on until it has now become the longest in the nation’s history.

The WikiLeaks documents, however, end in late 2009 and don’t show us how the war is going now or whether President Obama’s decision in December to send 30,000 more troops (the last won’t be in place until the end of this month) has a chance of altering those realities.

The answer to that question also depends on whether President Obama and his top advisers can finally secure the full commitment and cooperation of the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, and Pakistan’s military commander, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani.


 
A somewhat tounge in cheek answer to the question "what happens when we (the West) leave Afghanistan" by the Chicago Boyz:

http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/14798.html

Afghanistan 2050: A Travel Guide
Posted by James C. Bennett on August 12th, 2010 (All posts by James C. Bennett)

Southwest China: Lhasa to Kabul (Rough Planet TravelWikiTI, 2050 edition)

It is possible to fly on the Lhasa-Kabul leg of the journey, although expensive, but to fly would be to miss the wonderment of taking what is perhaps the most exciting train ride left on the planet – the Lhasa-Kabul Express. Not only is the scenery fantastic, and unviewable by any other means, and the engineering of the Karakoram Tunnel and the amazing bridges leading up to its portals a modern Wonder of the World, but the sociological aspect of the ride is unbeatable. Hard class, although not recommended for the novice rough traveler, has all the excitement of the wagon trains and emigrant ships of the Nineteenth Century, packed with a nation on the move, as migrants from the more northern and eastern parts of China come to try their luck in the Southwest. Soft class is more advisable, and from your comfortable sleeping compartment you can sip tea or maotai and watching the pageant of timeless, yet changing China unfold past your wide plate-glass window. We watched in fascination as other emigrant trains passed in the opposite direction, taking migrants also on the move, in this case members of Southwest China’s colorful national minorities headed toward the Voluntary Resettlements in the less crowded lands of the Tibetan Plateau. A nation on the move! Our guide and translator, the ever-helpful Miss Chen, explained that the armed guards on the train were there to protect the voluntary settlers from the occasional bands of bandits that still remain from the Times of Troubles before Southwest China was restored to its rightful historical status as part of the Chinese nation. Similarly, the many long eastbound freight trains of minerals speak to the massive economic development that has transformed Southwest China since the end of the Time of Troubles and reunification.

Arrival in storied Kabul was exciting, but, on walkabout, the first impression of the city was a bit of a letdown. So much of it has been rebuilt since the Times of Troubles that it now for the most part resembles any other Chinese city, and the crowds on the busy streets generally have the faces you would see in Shanghai, Beijing, or Lhasa. Indeed, if you are looking for the famous veiled faces or turban-clad national minorities, you must go to the Minorities Quarter, where several blocks have been restored in the traditional minority style – even a mosque! (Although the call to prayer was merely an automatic sound file played by a helpful policeman-guide.) Ironically, you will see more Tibetans on the streets than Pashtuns, since many Tibetans have taken advantage of the lower altitudes and cheap housing available in Kabul these days. It is easier to get good Tibetan momo dumplings now in Kabul than the traditional lamb and rice dishes associated with the area, although a convincing version of the latter can be found at the restaurant of the Kabul Sheraton. However, as a consolation, the conventional Chinese food is ubiquitous and good; we especially grew fond of the barbecued pork buns sold by street vendors on almost every corner.

The Minorities Quarter is also recommended for finding those unique local arts and crafts, which have been carefully preserved by the Ministry of Chinese Minority Cultures. One novel gift is the replica firearms (non-working, of course) made in the traditional manner by local gunsmiths, several dozen of whom still work in the Minorities Quarter. The more expensive versions are purported to have been fabricated from the remains of Soviet and western armored vehicles destroyed in the Times of Troubles, although such claims may be taken with a grain of salt — or two! Authentic minority dancing shows are put on several times daily, see the Ministry site for times.

Travel outside of Kabul is limited and inadvisable, both because modern infrastructure is still under construction, and because police permits for such travel are still difficult to obtain, due to some remaining bandit activity. We did make a visit by air to Khandahar, which has been rebuilt along similar lines to Kabul, but frankly less interesting, with no Minorities Quarter or handicraft shops. The guide was proud to show us the new pork packing plant in central Khandahar, on the site of the former mosque, but frankly, if you’ve seen one light industrial facility, you’ve seen them all. The air trip to see the restored Bamyan Buddhas (see below) is also said to be worthwhile; no special permit is needed if you fly.

One word of caution to travelers – it is easy to offend local sensibilities by discussing politics and repeating ill-informed stories spread by Sinophobic elements in those few irresponsible nations that still unfortunately permit such gossip. All responsible academic experts now agree that Southwest China has always been part of China, and its national minorities have always been part of the greater Chinese family. The Bamyan Buddhas, destroyed by Sinophobic separatists and now carefully restored, demonstrate the influence of Chinese Buddhist missionaries and the ties that have always existed between the various parts of China. Separatist activity has virtually ceased, outside of a few exile organizations, and, just as with the Tibetan region, over time the natural mixing of population and the acceptance of reunification by the world community has laid separatist fantasies to rest. Be particularly aware that the use of the former purported name for the Far Southwestern Region (“A*********n”) is considered Sinophobic.

For return travel, we would suggest air travel back to central China for those who can afford it, and a ride back on the train for those on a more limited budget. Air links to the east and west are few and permits for travel on them are generally restricted to government officials on priority business. It is possible to travel by bus east to Quetta or west to Herat, and thence onward to other Indian or Iranian destinations. However, visas and travel permits are difficult to obtain and the trips themselves, over not-yet-improved roads, are tedious. If you do wish to pursue this option, the Imperial Iranian consulate is on Sun Yixian Avenue, and the Union of India consulate is on May Fourth Boulevard. Be aware that dosimeters must be worn on bus travel through (or more accurately, around) Quetta and other Reconstruction Zones, by order of the Indian Military Administrator.

The authors would like to acknowledge the generous grant of the Southwest China Development Railway Authority that underwrote the research for this article.
 
 
Reproduced, without comment, under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

Afghan couple stoned by Taliban for adultery: official
If confirmed, executions in Kunduz province would be the first of their kind by the Taliban in the area

Mohammad Hamed

Kunduz, Afghanistan — Globe and Mail
Published on Monday, Aug. 16, 2010

A man and woman were publicly stoned to death by the Taliban in Afghanistan’s once-peaceful north over an alleged love affair, a provincial government official said on Monday.
If confirmed, Sunday’s executions in Kunduz province would be the first of their kind by the Taliban in the area and follow a call last week by Afghan clerics for a return to sharia and capital punishments carried out under the Islamic law.

They also come a week after officials said the Islamist militants publicly flogged and executed a woman accused of adultery in northwestern Badghis province.

“The two were stoned to death in a bazaar of Dasht-e Archi district on the accusation of committing the act of adultery,” said Mohammad Omar, the governor of Kunduz.

The Taliban arrested the two, who were each engaged to be married to other people, at the request of their families after they tried to elope, said district police chief Hameed Agha.

The hardline Islamists, who drew international criticism for such punishments when they ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, have distanced themselves from the incident in Badghis.

A spokesman for the group said on Monday he was not aware of the Kunduz incident.

Sharia prescribes punishments such as stonings, lashings, amputations and execution. A gathering of clerics, meeting last week to discuss reconciliation with the Taliban, expressed support for such punishments, known as “hodud“.

Some Afghans still refer to Taliban courts for settling disputes, viewing government bodies as corrupt or unreliable.

Despite the presence of more than 140,000 foreign troops, backed by 300,000 Afghan soldiers and police, the Taliban have managed to spread beyond their traditional strongholds in the south into formerly peaceful areas like Kunduz.

On Monday, a spokesman for NATO-led forces criticised the Taliban for carrying out what he said were acts of indiscriminate violence against ordinary Afghans. “They have increased acts of violence and repression against innocent Afghans,” Brigadier General Josef Blotz told reporters.

“The insurgents have clearly given up winning over the population, knowing that they don’t have an appealing vision for the people.”

A UN report last week showed civilian casualties had risen by 31 percent over the first six months of 2010, with 1,271 killed, and that the Taliban and other insurgents were responsible for 76 percent of casualties.


The report is, as the story says, unconfirmed.
 
Petraeus takes a lead (usual copyright disclaimer):

Gen. David Petraeus says Afghanistan war strategy 'fundamentally sound'
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/15/AR2010081501514.html

KABUL -- In his first six weeks as the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, Gen. David H. Petraeus has seen insurgent attacks on coalition forces spike to record levels, violence metastasize to previously stable areas, and the country's president undercut anti-corruption units backed by Washington.

But after burrowing into operations here and traveling to the far reaches of this country, Petraeus has concluded that the U.S. strategy to win the nearly nine-year-old war is "fundamentally sound."

In a wide-ranging hour-long interview with The Washington Post, he said he sees incipient signs of progress in parts of the volatile south, in new initiatives to create community defense forces and in nascent steps to reintegrate low-level insurgents who want to stop fighting.

With public support for the war slipping and a White House review of the conflict due in December, Petraeus said he is pushing the forces under his command to proceed with alacrity. He remains supportive of President Obama's decision to begin withdrawing troops next July, but he said it is far too soon to determine the size of the drawdown.

"We are doing everything we can to achieve progress as rapidly as we can without rushing to failure," Petraeus said in his wood-paneled office at NATO headquarters in Kabul. "We're keenly aware that this has been ongoing for approaching nine years. We fully appreciate the impatience in some quarters."

But he warned against expecting quick results in a campaign that involves building Afghan government and security institutions from scratch, and persuading people to cast their lot with coalition forces after years of broken promises -- all in the face of Taliban intimidation and attacks...

He said it is too early to ascertain when Afghan security forces can assume responsibility for various parts of the country. Officials from some NATO nations, where public support for the war is lower than it is in the United States, want to announce at a November meeting of alliance foreign ministers a list of provinces to be handed over. Some Obama administration officials also are pushing for a transition plan before the White House review. But some of the once-quiet provinces in the north and west, deemed likely targets a few months ago, are now wracked by spiking insurgent violence [emphasis added]...

Petraeus contends that the counterinsurgency strategy is showing momentum in Helmand province, where about 20,000 U.S. Marines and 10,000 British troops have sought to create inkblots of security in six key districts. Some areas, such as Marja, a former Taliban stronghold, have proved to be tougher to pacify -- insurgents are continuing an aggressive harassment campaign -- but other places, such as the districts of Nawa and Garmsir, are becoming more stable and may feature prominently in his year-end presentation to the White House.

He also said he is encouraged by developments in Arghandab district on Kandahar's northern fringe, where two U.S. Army battalions [emphasis added] have been engaged in an arduous mission to clear insurgents from pomegranate orchards and vineyards seeded with makeshift but lethal anti-personnel mines.

"We got intelligence we gathered from the Taliban that said, 'Don't worry, fellows. The time has come now. Stop fighting, lay down your weapons and fade away, and just wait until they leave,' " he said. "Of course, in this case our forces are not leaving."

Other U.S. units will begin clearing operations in districts to the west of the city this fall. But already, Petraeus said, missions by U.S., NATO and Afghan special-forces teams to target Taliban leaders in the Kandahar area have tripled over the past four months.

Nationwide, those forces have killed or captured 365 insurgent leaders and about 2,400 rank-and-file members over the past three months [emphasis added], he said, providing the most detailed accounting of the increase in counter-terrorist operations this year.

The operations have led "some leaders of some elements" of the insurgency to begin reconciliation discussions with the Afghan government, Petraeus said. Some military officials have suggested that insurgent leaders are simply testing the waters because they perceive the Afghan government to be desperate, but Petraeus characterized the interactions as "meaningful," although he cautioned against raising "undue expectations."

Perhaps his most significant accomplishment since arriving in Kabul has been to get Karzai to endorse the creation of armed neighborhood-watch groups [emphasis added]. The president initially expressed concern that the program could result in the creation of militias similar to those that ravaged the country in the 1990s and led to the Taliban's rise...
 

Meanwhile from Mr Gates:

U.S. hopes to begin Afghan security transfer by spring
Pentagon chief Gates says that with NATO training troops ahead of schedule, some Afghan forces may be given security responsibilities, freeing up Western troops to focus on insurgent-held areas.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-afghan-progress-20100816,0,1848947.story

With training of Afghanistan's army and police ahead of schedule, American officials now believe the U.S.-led military coalition could begin transferring some security responsibilities to Afghan forces as early as spring.

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said in an interview that given faster-than-expected progress in training army units, it was likely that those forces could assume primary responsibility for security sooner in less violent areas of the country, freeing up NATO troops for operations elsewhere.

"With more Afghan forces, we can be on a path to transition in more places around the country," Gates said. "The success with the [Afghan] army in particular, I think, bodes well for in fact beginning to have some transitions maybe as early as this spring, but certainly beginning in the summer."

Gates was referring to the recent announcement by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization training command in Afghanistan that it had reached its 2010 goal of 134,000 trained Afghan troops two months early...

"There is no question in anybody's mind that we are going to begin drawing down troops in July of 2011," Gates said in the interview Thursday. But so far, he said, "there hasn't even been a discussion of a steep decline quickly" at the top levels of the administration.

His comments were a pointed rebuttal to lower-level officials in Washington who have privately asserted that Obama will rapidly withdraw troops beginning next summer.

Gates disputed that notion, emphasizing a consensus among himself, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Obama.

"As the president has said, and Hillary has said and I've said, the pace and the number are going to depend on the conditions on the ground," Gates said...

Although the U.S.-led training effort is ahead of schedule, it still is 750 trainers short of what it needs, Lt. Gen. William B. Caldwell, commander of the training mission, told reporters last week. North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries have failed to send promised personnel, forcing the United States to send additional units and to rely more heavily on contractors to ready Afghan units.

If Afghans are able to take over responsibility for more areas of the country by next spring, it will free up U.S. and other NATO troops to move to still-violent regions [emphasis added--which countries?], rather than permitting withdrawals, Gates said...

Plus transcript and videos of Petraeus interview on NBC's Meet the Press.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38686033/ns/meet_the_press-transcripts

Mark
Ottawa
 
They should've just carpet-nuked every country that had celebrations and dancing in the streets in the wake of 9/11. Deep-seeded hatred, the kind where you're taught to hate your neighbour from the day you're born, isn't going away anytime soon. There is no politically correct way of dealing with these kinds of people. We (the UN) are trying to deal with completely irrational and illogical people using logic and ration.  :brickwall:
 
Sapplicant said:
They should've just carpet-nuked every country that had celebrations and dancing in the streets in the wake of 9/11. Deep-seeded hatred, the kind where you're taught to hate your neighbour from the day you're born, isn't going away anytime soon.

Soooo - you telling me that recommending the mass genocide of millions of people is based on something other than "deep-seeded hatred"?
 
Sapplicant said:
They should've just carpet-nuked every country that had celebrations and dancing in the streets in the wake of 9/11. Deep-seeded hatred, the kind where you're taught to hate your neighbour from the day you're born, isn't going away anytime soon. There is no politically correct way of dealing with these kinds of people. We (the UN) are trying to deal with completely irrational and illogical people using logic and ration.  :brickwall:
The only part of the entire poorly thought-out rant I can agree with is  " :brickwall: "


ps - the term is "deep-seated," and the opposite of "irrational" is not "ration" ::)
 
Journeyman said:
The only part of the entire poorly thought-out rant I can agree with is  " :brickwall: "


ps - the term is "deep-seated," and the opposite of "irrational" is not "ration" ::)

Yes, but we do provide food aid as part of the larger attempts to win over the locals...

 
More from me, Bruce R., and Terry Glavin:

AfPak: Not just flooding in Pakistan/Afstan miscellany/Plus “moral vacuity” Update
http://unambig.com/afpak-not-just-flooding-in-pakistanafstan-miscellany/

Mark
Ottawa
 
Afstan: A gem from Mr Glavin/BruceR. Update
http://unambig.com/afstan-a-gem-from-mr-glavin/

Earlier on our fine polemicist:

    Afstan, our zombies, pomo psyb, and reactionary scum...

Mark
Ottawa
 
Afstan: “We have not even bothered to try” (with a jab at Ceasefire.ca and Mr Staples)
http://unambig.com/afstan-we-have-not-even-bothered-to-try/

Mark
Ottawa
 
With links to much more:

Afstan: Even the Toronto Star seems open to keeping some Canadian troops
http://unambig.com/afstan-even-the-toronto-star-seems-open-to-keeping-some-canadian-troops/

Mark
Ottawa
 
MarkOttawa said:
With links to much more:

Afstan: Even the Toronto Star seems open to keeping some Canadian troops
http://unambig.com/afstan-even-the-toronto-star-seems-open-to-keeping-some-canadian-troops/

Mark
Ottawa


My guess is that most of those who now, apparently, support a training mission really don't; what they really do support is anything that creates political problems for Prime Minister Harper and his government. "The enemy of my enemy is my friend, etc."
 
In which case the political class in this country are all a bunch of unprincipled bas....s with no concept of statespersonship.  But we knew that, didn't we :rage:?

Mark
Ottawa
 
Sorry about the rant before.. I should stay away from the computer when drinking barley pops. Idiocy aside, question to ask... Are they going to set up a licensed opium trade in A'stan, similar to that of Turkey and India? Maybe have the UN buy the opium for production into painkillers that can be given as aid to the "have not" countries where people are suffering? Same with the cannabis, considering that it's given to AIDS patients here... Why not have the UN buy it, then give it to people who need it? Seems a good way to win over the hearts and minds of the farmers of said crops. Provide financial aid, and receive some much needed medicine in return. Everybody wins....
 
Afstan: We’re outta there, gone, lock, stock and no smoking barrels (or memos in Kabul)
http://unambig.com/afstan-were-outta-there-gone-lock-stock-and-no-smoking-barrels-or-memos-in-kabul/

Mark
Ottawa
 
Two posts by BruceR. at Flit worth thinking on:

Today's essential Afghan reading: people who know what they're talking about (plus comment from Bruce, also knows a bit)
http://www.snappingturtle.net/flit/archives/2010_09_07.html#006781

More on killer UAVs
http://www.snappingturtle.net/flit/archives/2010_09_07.html#006780

Mark
Ottawa
 
Ignorance in odd places: Afstan is a UN-sanctioned mission
http://unambig.com/ignorance-in-odd-places-afstan-is-a-un-sanctioned-mission/

For some reason I just received in the mail a “Citizens’ Panel Survey” from the United Nations Association in Canada.  Here are the first two questions...

Update: Also in National Post's "Full Comment":
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/09/09/mark-collins-un-support-for-afghanistan-is-news-to-un/

Mark
Ottawa
 
Hi folks sorry if I have placed this in the wrong spot feel free to move it. I was talking with my Father the other day who's finally come to terms with me achieving my dream of becoming a member of the CF Oct.19 swearing in. Any how he's a full blooded NDP supporter anti anything that's not Peace,Love and Happiness. While we talking he made a comment about the mission in Afghanistan saying " I am against us being in Afghanistan but I'm also against us leaving before the job we set out to do is complete. I feel that if we leave before then that the young men and women who sacrificed there lives would have died in vain." Having said that I was wondering if any members of the CF or civilians who may have lost a family member or a friend to the mission feel the same way?? 

:cdn: :salute: 
 
byrd365 said:
Hi folks sorry if I have placed this in the wrong spot feel free to move it. I was talking with my Father the other day who's finally come to terms with me achieving my dream of becoming a member of the CF Oct.19 swearing in. Any how he's a full blooded NDP supporter anti anything that's not Peace,Love and Happiness. While we talking he made a comment about the mission in Afghanistan saying " I am against us being in Afghanistan but I'm also against us leaving before the job we set out to do is complete. I feel that if we leave before then that the young men and women who sacrificed there lives would have died in vain." Having said that I was wondering if any members of the CF or civilians who may have lost a family member or a friend to the mission feel the same way?? 

:cdn: :salute: 

I'll answer that:

I've lost a son and at least two people I call friends. As a member of the CF, we do what the Government of Canada tells us to.

As for my personal feelings, I will refrain from making comment.

Thank you and good luck with your time in the CF. :salute:
 
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