2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[Remius]

It used to be possible to distinguish the Trudeau-Chretien faction from the Turner-Martin faction. Who composes the latter now? Does that faction even exist anymore, or did the T-C faction manage to extinguish it?

Likely more behind the scenes than in front. The LPC does manage pretty good party discipline for the most part.

 

[dapaterson]

Likely more behind the scenes than in front. The LPC does manage pretty good party discipline for the most part.

They have reasserted party discipline after their unexpected 2015 majority. Post Chretien, their internal chaos was noteworthy.

 

[Halifax Tar]

They only need someone to prevent a massacre and or hold the CPC to a minority which would be a blow to them.

Most centrists have likely been driven away or are biding their time. My choice would be Anand. She’s competent and likely just divorced enough from the in crowd to be that perceived change.

A Con minority is not good for the LPC either. Their disdain will make them collapse the Gov ASAP and then I predict the LPC gets banished to the hinterland as they were before. Canadians don't like going to the polls too often.

A CPC majority let's the LPC say I told you so, now vote us back in at the next election.

Just my take.

Or who knows, perhaps the LPC can some how hang on to a minority and it's status quo next fall...

 

[Haggis]

I just spent most of this week at a D Day commemoration. Even thought many military associated folks are right leaning PP was wildly unpopular with my dinner companions, and I never sat at the same table twice.

 

[TacticalTea]

I think to properly combat PP, the new liberal leader would need to be one cut from the centre-left cloth of old. My fear, based on the current climate, is that the new leader would likely be more of the same, or worse, more "left" than Trudeau is. Since it's party members themselves that elect the leader, it would be interesting to get a sense (is there a poll available?) of how left the voting members of the LPC currently are. I think a lot of Canadians who right now are expressing support for the CPC would switch back to the LPC if there was a more "conservative" LPC leader. The problem is that most "centrist" or "persuadable" voters are also not those that are super engaged in party politics, and likely don't make up the bulk of the voting members of the LPC.

That could save a lot of seats but it won't win them the election.

The CPC is close to a majority of the popular vote. They're not losing the next election.

But if the Liberals sack Trudeau, it would at least send the message that they're ready to be serious again.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I just spent most of this week at a D Day commemoration. Even thought many military associated folks are right leaning PP was wildly unpopular with my dinner companions, and I never sat at the same table twice.

What province do you live in ?

Most of the people PP is appealing to don't get invited to such functions.

 

[Remius]

What province do you live in ?

Most of the people PP is appealing to don't get invited to such functions.

I would argue that poles indicate that a broad group of people are looking to have change. The CPC is polling higher right now exactly because people beyond their base are looking at them as an alternative. PP may not appeal to them but they might still vote for him despite him if they feel JT is the worse option. If the worse option becomes PP then things go another way.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I would argue that poles indicate that a broad group of people are looking to have change. The CPC is polling higher right now exactly because people beyond their base are looking at them as an alternative. PP may not appeal to them but they might still vote for him despite him if they feel JT is the worse option. If the worse option becomes PP then things go another way.

Perhaps.

 

[Remius]

A Con minority is not good for the LPC either. Their disdain will make them collapse the Gov ASAP and then I predict the LPC gets banished to the hinterland as they were before. Canadians don't like going to the polls too often.

A CPC majority let's the LPC say I told you so, now vote us back in at the next election.

Just my take.

Or who knows, perhaps the LPC can some how hang on to a minority and it's status quo next fall...

All possibilities.

 

[Eaglelord17]

I don’t care for the guy myself, he shot himself in the foot with all the crypto nonsense he was pushing for me.

That being said when your provided 3 options and two are a absolute garbage fire, it really only means you have one option…

 

[Haggis]

What province do you live in ?

Most of the people PP is appealing to don't get invited to such functions.

This was a national event in NB. There was attendance from across Canada.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Playing the cards dealt by what's been happening as a by-election looms ...

Tories appeal to Jewish community ahead of byelection, allege 'betrayal' by Trudeau

OTTAWA - The federal Conservatives are asking the Jewish community in a Toronto riding to send Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a message about his "betrayal" by voting for the Tory

www.thecanadianpressnews.ca

Riding in play with 24 June by-election coming up (mix of Blue & Red wins until 1993, followed by all-Red since)

Toronto—St. Paul's (federal electoral district) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[dimsum]

Has Pierre Poilievre peaked too soon?

At some point soon he must begin looking like an alternative prime minister and offer details of what he would do in office.

www.thespec.com

 

[Good2Golf]

Has Pierre Poilievre peaked too soon?

At some point soon he must begin looking like an alternative prime minister and offer details of what he would do in office.

www.thespec.com

Interesting long letter to the editor…

If an election is next year, three years of offering nothing coherent as far as policy alternatives go, is a long time.

A well-used trope by critics. For those whose computer, tablet or smartphone doesn’t have a search engine, here’s the link to the CPC policy (available in convenient PDF format):

https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/23175001/990863517f7a575.pdf

Second, at some point soon Poilievre must begin looking like an alternative prime minister and offer details of what he would do in office.

He seems decently prime ministerial, even in question period…calm, collected, composed…little if any flailing and shouting and loud-moist yelling like we have seen from the current PM.

Having said that, Poilievre has offered no ideas as to how he will reduce the deficit and debt. He only criticizes and offers no solutions. In fact there are only two ways for Canada to “dig itself out of this debt hole.”
One of them is to reduce spending. Will Poilievre eliminate the new pharmacare program? It is quite expensive, however if he does so, that won’t endear him to the thousands of women and diabetics that will use it for their birth control and/or diabetes medications.
Perhaps he will go after the new dental program for lower income Canadians? If so, then he will promote the stereotype that conservatives only care about wealthy Canadians.
The usual target for a Canadian federal government to reduce spending is the military. As discussed earlier this is not an option and in fact, we must find the money to greatly increase the budget for national defence. Poilievre cannot go there to reduce spending.
Cutting the new subsidized daycare program would only ensure the CPC is a one-term government. So that is out.His other option is to increase taxes.
That would expand the amount of revenue that the government could use to pay down debt. But with the cost of living increasing, no politician who would like to remain employed would ever suggest that. And for someone like Poilievre who believes in smaller government this would be simply unthinkable.

Well he certainly could reduce the size of the federal bureaucracy, which Trudea grew from 270,000 public servants to over 400,000 since 2015 with zero productivity increase and a $60B/year cost, more than twice the amount spent on Defence.

Overall, not sure I would race out to buy any of Mr. Wallace’s books just yet.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Interesting long letter to the editor…


A well-used trope by critics. For those whose computer, tablet or smartphone doesn’t have a search engine, here’s the link to the CPC policy (available in convenient PDF format):

https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/23175001/990863517f7a575.pdf

He seems decently prime ministerial, even in question period…calm, collected, composed…little if any flailing and shouting and loud-moist yelling like we have seen from the current PM.



Well he certainly could reduce the size of the federal bureaucracy, which Trudea grew from 270,000 public servants to over 400,000 since 2015 with zero productivity increase and a $60B/year cost, more than twice the amount spent on Defence.

Overall, not sure I would race out to buy any of Mr. Wallace’s books just yet.

Agreed on all accounts. I read that as coming from a scared Liberal.

Having said that, the CPC will have to release their platform come election time. And what they are doing now, is working. So why change ?

 

[Remius]

Interesting long letter to the editor…


A well-used trope by critics. For those whose computer, tablet or smartphone doesn’t have a search engine, here’s the link to the CPC policy (available in convenient PDF format):

https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/23175001/990863517f7a575.pdf

He seems decently prime ministerial, even in question period…calm, collected, composed…little if any flailing and shouting and loud-moist yelling like we have seen from the current PM.



Well he certainly could reduce the size of the federal bureaucracy, which Trudea grew from 270,000 public servants to over 400,000 since 2015 with zero productivity increase and a $60B/year cost, more than twice the amount spent on Defence.

Overall, not sure I would race out to buy any of Mr. Wallace’s books just yet.

The PS is going to take a hit regardless of who is in power. Just depends on how it’s done. DRAP was a mess but I suspect it will be the blueprint for a CPC gvt and it will be done early enough in the mandate.

My bet is their plan will involve giving the door to a fair amount of senior types, DMs, ADMs and even some DGs. They’ll promote up some and bring in outsiders. Not necessarily a good thing in some cases. Some departments will either merge or get decimated as their programs and initiatives get cut or removed outright.

If they follow their old plan and do DRAP 2.0 it will be a disaster. But if they put some actual thought into it then it could have some positive effects. Something tells me they will be aiming for a political win, not necessarily a structural one.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Some departments will either merge or get decimated as their programs and initiatives get cut or removed outright.

Depending on how one thinks about the department(s) getting 'decimated' that wont be a bad thing.

But hey, a conservative who wants a small(er) federal Gov, I'm down with that.

 

[Good2Golf]

The PS is going to take a hit regardless of who is in power. Just depends on how it’s done. DRAP was a mess but I suspect it will be the blueprint for a CPC gvt and it will be done early enough in the mandate.

My bet is their plan will involve giving the door to a fair amount of senior types, DMs, ADMs and even some DGs. They’ll promote up some and bring in outsiders. Not necessarily a good thing in some cases. Some departments will either merge or get decimated as their programs and initiatives get cut or removed outright.

If they follow their old plan and do DRAP 2.0 it will be a disaster. But if they put some actual thought into it then it could have some positive effects. Something tells me they will be aiming for a political win, not necessarily a structural one.

I agree, and probably would, for union reasons be the way it would unfold no matter, so to a significant degree, the clean up the PS well was already tainted if not poisoned for those down the road to have to fix/clean up. I personally would accept that we’re going to take a sunk-cost hit to clear out the significantly more senior types, but if that means ridding ourselves of the self-interested cabal that was filled with the types of DMs and ADMs who facilitated the likes of the Phoenix fiasco for their own personal gain (so that ADM Rossana DiPaolo could get her annual performance pay for Phoenix’s ‘unrelated’ implementation), then so be it…clear them out…

 

[QV]

The PS is going to take a hit regardless of who is in power. Just depends on how it’s done. DRAP was a mess but I suspect it will be the blueprint for a CPC gvt and it will be done early enough in the mandate.

My bet is their plan will involve giving the door to a fair amount of senior types, DMs, ADMs and even some DGs. They’ll promote up some and bring in outsiders. Not necessarily a good thing in some cases. Some departments will either merge or get decimated as their programs and initiatives get cut or removed outright.

If they follow their old plan and do DRAP 2.0 it will be a disaster. But if they put some actual thought into it then it could have some positive effects. Something tells me they will be aiming for a political win, not necessarily a structural one.

The PS will indeed take a hit. I hope you're right about the highlighted, the obstructive Trudeau believers need to be rinsed away for a more neutral senior PS.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Has Pierre Poilievre peaked too soon?

At some point soon he must begin looking like an alternative prime minister and offer details of what he would do in office.

www.thespec.com

I'm getting a firewall - here's an archived version that seems to punch through to the whole letter. In general, I think he's right, but it's also politically effective to keep one's powder dry this far out. As mentioned up thread ...

... what they are doing now, is working ...

Still, I think the transition will have to happen, platform or not.

... For those whose computer, tablet or smartphone doesn’t have a search engine, here’s the link to the CPC policy (available in convenient PDF format):

https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/23175001/990863517f7a575.pdf

...

That's what a general consensus of the Party faithful want, giving a general idea of the direction Team Blue's members want the ship to go.

The platform is what PP & Co's going to pick and choose (or not) from that playbook as priorities. If someone down the road says, "but this was in the policy book, but not in the platform", it will rightly be said "not everything is guaranteed to go from A into B" - or from B to reality if the situation changes for the government of the day.

It will be interesting to see what he triages into the platform as we get closer to B-Day (Ballot Day)