Who do you like for Liberal leader?

[Blindspot]

Have we heard any word from Dryden on Israel? That would be interesting considering his riding is massively Jewish.

 

[a_majoor]

In a way, I would like to see Dion show his chops as leader. He seems very smart (in a good way, not a Harvard Professor or Dr. Evil kind of way), is certainly passionate about Canada and (importantly in the Canadian context) delivered a very sound thumping to the separatist movement.

This also underlies what I don't like about the current Liberals; they are so insular and inward looking. Prime Minister Harper has staked a lot of his and Canada's reputation on engaging in the outside world in a way not seen for perhaps two generations. The sudden influx of light and air is very disturbing for many Canadians, and Socialists especially seem to be withering like exotic orchids taken out of the greenhouse. The Liberal Party may be in danger of disintegrating, shedding the hard left membership off to the Greens and NDP, with a core or rump (depending on how messy the break up is) becoming the "New Centrist" party.

The ultimate problem is that much of Canadian politics (at all levels) has become rather insular and inbred, new ideas are hard to come by. This leads to the danger of the Tories becoming complacent and sloppy, with negative results for all of us.

 

[TCBF]

"This leads to the danger of the Tories becoming complacent and sloppy, with negative results for all of us."

- The complacent and sloppy are the former Eastern PCs, who think it is back to the good old days, and to heck with the Right/West who put them back in the driver's seat.  The ex-Reformers remember too well what happened in the mid-eighties in a similar situation, and are trembling at the prospect of the Mulroneyization of the Conservatives, and the resulting future split off of a New Reform (motto: "NEVER AGAIN!").

Can they learn from the past?  Time will tell.  A recent "Western Standard" newsmagazine poll show dwindling numbers for Alberta separation, BUT, that is with a PM from Calgary heading a minority Conservative government.  What could go wrong?  Well...  BC and Alberta - who often hold joint cabinet meetings - now have a greater combined population than Quebec.  Quebec has 75 seats, BC/Alta 64.  By the time we have a new census and the comittees re-jig the riding boundaries, it will be another ten years or so.  At that point, if the West cannot find the true meaning of life in Ottawa, the map of Canada may change.

What does this have to do with the Liberals?  Lots.  If the Conservatives break in two or - again - three, the Natural Governing Party will again be King, and if they cannot placate the West - and they won't, with Kyoto/Carbon Tax - the country is theirs to lose.

 

[a_majoor]

There is a long article here, and a very interesting train of responses, so I will post the link only. The essential argument is that Ignatieff is indulging in the sort of "magical thinking" which might be OK in the content and value free world of academia, where there are no consequences to words and actions, but is very counter productive in the real world of action and reaction: http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/archives/004801.html

 

[Edward Campbell]

If I was a Liberal (which I, most emphatically, am not) I would being doing this sort of political calculus:

***
Popular support 23 Jan 06

CON – 36.5%
LIB – 30.25%
NDP – 17.5%
PQ – 10.5%
Result: Conservative Minority Government

***

Ignatieff as leader means, nationally, the left wing of the Liberal Party either votes NDP or sits on its hands.  No other major gains or losses.

Likely Results –

CON – 37%
LIB – 29%
NDP – 19%
PQ – 10%
Result: Conservative Minority Government

***

Rae as leader means that the Conservatives pick up some support in Ontario.  No significant changes elsewhere.

Likely Results –

CON – 38%
LIB – 29%
NDP – 17%
PQ – 10%
Result: Conservative Minority Government

***

Kennedy as leader means that Québec is insulted and abandons the Party; federalist Québecers vote Conservative.  Liberals gain a few NDP votes.

Likely Results –

CON – 40%
LIB – 27%
NDP – 18%
PQ – 11%
Result: Conservative Majority Government

***

Dion as leader means the Liberals get Québec federalist votes back from the Conservatives.  Ontario and Atlantic Canada remain, roughly, unchanged, Conservatives and NDP gain, at Liberal expense, in Western Canada.

CON – 34%
LIB – 35%
NDP – 18%
PQ – 11%
Result: Liberal Minority Government

 

[Edward Campbell]

I have commented here in Army.ca (e.g. just a week ago at: http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/41980/post-461408.html#msg461408 ) that in the next Canadian general election running against US President George W. Bush will be a popular (and I think successful) tactic.

Flipper (Ignatieff) has already started, using Chrétien mouthpiece/apologist Lawrence Martin of the Globe and Mail as his messenger.  Here is Martin’s column from today’s (19 Oct 06) Globe, reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20061018.wxcomartin19/BNStory/National/home

The man who would be PM hammers Bush

LAWRENCE MARTIN
From Thursday's Globe and Mail

Michael Ignatieff wants to make one thing clear: He's not Washington's guy. “People seem to believe I want to live in an American imperial world. I do not. I do not.”

The front-runner in the Liberal leadership race was hunched over lunch at an Ottawa restaurant, focused, eyes like a hawk. He wants the prize so badly.

He's criticized as being Harper-lite or Bush-lite or both. It bothers him.

On George W. Bush, he was pointed. “This president has been a disaster for the authority and the influence of the United States,” he said. Post-9/11, with the Western world at his feet, Mr. Bush missed a golden chance to unite it. “A historic opportunity was missed by the Bush administration that Americans are now realizing was a catastrophe — and a catastrophe not only against their values, but against their interests.”

The former Harvard professor made it clear he will not be hitching his wagon to any unilateralist empire-building. “I've supported the Afghan mission precisely because I don't want to live in an American imperial world. If we don't, as Canadians, want to live under American domination . . . then we have to have the courage to take on a difficult mission with our NATO partners and get it done. If we don't want a world run by the Americans, Canada has to lead.”

It's an interesting twist because the perception is the opposite. The conventional wisdom is that, if Canada becomes a warrior nation, it is following the U.S. lead. Mr. Ignatieff said he wants Canada to follow the Pearsonian example. “I'm a Mike Pearson Liberal. I want to reinvent the party as a progressive social force.”

He appears to be trying to reposition himself. Primarily because of his initial support for the Iraq war, he is considered to be to the right of other leadership contestants. This has fuelled the impression that he does not have much growth potential after the first convention ballot. It makes sense for him — though he says he's been a Pearsonian Liberal since 17 — to move left.

On Iraq, he said he takes “full responsibility for not having anticipated how incompetent the Americans would be. I don't have remaining confidence in the Americans. . . . The Bush operation in Iraq betrayed any hopes I had of Iraq transitioning to a stable political elite, and now all those hopes rest with my friends, the Iraqi political elite.”

On the economy, he said he feared that Mr. Bush's colossal national debt could result in a damaging blowback into Canada. On the social side, he said he was “particularly concerned about the importation of failed criminal justice policies and failed social policies in the United States.”

If elected Liberal leader and prime minister, Mr. Ignatieff might have to work with the President. In the past, pointedly criticizing Mr. Bush got Liberals into big trouble. The more colonially inclined reacted with rancour when a cabinet member, Herb Dhaliwal, called Mr. Bush a failed statesman. But Mr. Dhaliwal hardly proved to be wayward with his assessment. The mood has changed, however, and calling Mr. Bush a “disaster” may win him points for candour.

His harsh assessment is hardly unique. He pointed out, quite correctly, that millions of Americans now appear to feel the same way about the Bush presidency as Canadians do. The Canadian view, Mr. Ignatieff said, has been vindicated. It's not anti-Americanism, as polls demonstrate, but rather an anti-Bush conviction.

As he sat in the restaurant, the candidate was coming off a miserable week. He had made injudicious observations alleging Israeli war crimes. He had been punched around the ring in a leadership debate. The blood sport of politics, he allowed, was teaching him a thing or two. “What I've learned is the importance of words. Getting them right.”

He wasn't complaining of media treatment. “You put on your skates, your pads, your helmet, and whatever happens on the rink, it's your responsibility. So I accept that.”

Mr. Ignatieff has to create a greater comfort zone with the other camps, so distancing himself from Bush country could well help. Defining himself coherently has been a problem for him, partly because of his far-flung international career and myriad writings and pronouncements.

When in Britain, he often played to Britain. When in America, he often played to America (the famous “we” quote). He hasn't been home for long, and he is still trying to discover how to play to Canada. If he does, he will be in the best position to win on Dec. 2.

lmartin@globeandmail.com

A couple of interesting points:

• ’On the economy, he said he feared that Mr. Bush's colossal national debt could result in a damaging blowback into Canada.’ I agree, I think George W Bush has pursued/is pursuing disastrous fiscal policies and I fear Canada will get singed, at least, when the chickens come home to roost, etc. +1 for Flipper.

• ’ “… we have to have the courage to take on a difficult mission with our NATO partners and get it done. If we don't want a world run by the Americans, Canada has to lead.” ‘ So he is, indeed, on side with Stephen Harper! +1 more for Flipper.

• ’ It's an interesting twist because the perception is the opposite. The conventional wisdom is that, if Canada becomes a warrior nation, it is following the U.S. lead. Mr. Ignatieff said he wants Canada to follow the Pearsonian example. “I'm a Mike Pearson Liberal. I want to reinvent the party as a progressive social force.” … It makes sense for him — though he says he's been a Pearsonian Liberal since 17 — to move left.’  Again I suspect Martin is right, so another +1 for him.

I think Flipper misunderstands or, more likely, misrepresents Mike Pearson.  Mike Pearson did not repudiate St Laurent’s policy that Canada would be a leading middle power with the concomitant requirement for military muscle.  Pearson did support Hellyer’s misguided attempts to wring some of the bureaucratic inefficiency out of DND (remember Glassco, 1960?), so would anyone, we were in another, periodic recession and Canadians wanted more social spending from within the existing budget.  Mike Pearson added ’helpful fixed’ to leading middle power as a matter of policy and tried to do both with less (defence spending) as a matter of management. -1 for Flipper.

• ’ When in Britain, he often played to Britain. When in America, he often played to America (the famous “we” quote). He hasn't been home for long, and he is still trying to discover how to play to Canada. If he does, he will be in the best position to win on Dec. 2.’  I suspect Martin – who does know Canadian politics – is right.  +1 for Martin.


On balance: only +1 for Flipper and +2 for Martin, but I hope the Globe and Mail and the Ignatieff campaign do not forget to declare this as campaign publicity.

 

[a_majoor]

None of the above:

http://www.stevejanke.com/archives/201270.php

October 19, 2006

McGuinty is using Ontario tax money to support the federal Liberal leadership campaign
Posted by Steve Janke of the Blogging Tories at 06:13 PM

Technorati tags: Liberal Party, Dalton McGuinty, Progressive Conservative Party, John Tory, Ontario

The Progressive Conservatives have levelled a serious charge against Premier Dalton McGuinty -- staff members, using their offices and on government time, are working for the federal Liberal Party supporting the leadership campaign.

Are these guys ever going to learn?!

A press release from the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party:

For Immediate Release
October 19, 2006

MCGUINTY LIBERALS CAUGHT RED-HANDED

Premier's Office and Ministry staff use taxpayer-funded offices for Liberal leadership

(Queen's Park) - Progressive Conservative Party Leader John Tory today called for Dalton McGuinty to explain why members of his staff and ministers' staffs are using Ontario taxpayer-funded offices for the federal Liberal leadership campaign.

"This is a serious issue - it strikes at the heart of trust in government and respect for the taxpayers money," said Tory. "This is just like the taxpayer financed propaganda campaigns the McGuinty Liberals have on the airwaves right now."

The Liberal Party of Canada published a list of returning officers for their delegate selection on their website (which was taken down shortly after Tory raised it during Question Period). Several McGuinty Liberal staff are listed with their government email addresses and phone numbers. In the Legislature today, Tory pointed to several staff members on the list:

Aaron Lazarus, Director, Issues Management and Legislative Affairs, Premier's Office
Barbara Joy, Assistant Director, Issues Management and Legislative Affairs, Premier's Office
Utilia Amaral, Senior Advisor, Municipal Affairs and Housing.
Elizabeth Hall, Senior Policy Advisor to Attorney General
Jason Murray, Policy Assistant to the Attorney General

Dalton McGuinty recently said that his members and staffers were expected to not "compromise [their] higher obligations to both [their] constituents and to [the government]."

"Dalton McGuinty owes the taxpayers of Ontario a full explanation for what his staff members are doing," said Tory. "If this is the example of character Dalton McGuinty wants to set for the people of Ontario then Heaven help us all."

-30-

For more information:
Brendan Howe
(416) 325-0412

OK, one more time. Slowly and clearly so every Liberal understands. Tax money is not the private piggy bank for Liberals and their supporters.

To...alll...Liberals!...Tax...money...is...not...yours...to...spend...as...you...wish!

 

[a_majoor]

Perhaps someone is looking towards the next leadership convention?

http://dissonanceanddisrespect.blogspot.com/2006/11/burden-of-greatness.html

The Burden Of Greatness

The unofficial dauphin of the Liberal Party is launching his leadership campaign with a few gratuitous swipes at the men who deign to actually seek it at this time.

If Michael Ignatieff lacks wisdom, and Bob Rae lacks grand vision, who does that leave to save the Natural Governing Party(tm)?

Apparently we all want Justin Trudeau, whether we want him or not.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20061114.wtrudeau1115/BNStory/National/home

Justin Trudeau takes another dig at Ignatieff
Canadian Press

TORONTO — Justin Trudeau has taken another swipe at Liberal leadership candidate Michael Ignatieff.

In an interview with Radio-Canada conducted in French, Mr. Trudeau called Mr. Ignatieff a great thinker, but said he lacks the wisdom to be party leader.

Late last month, Mr. Trudeau criticized Mr. Ignatieff's declaration that Quebec should be recognized as a nation within Canada.

Mr. Trudeau responded to Mr. Ignatieff's comments by saying that Quebec nationalism is an outdated idea.

In the Radio-Canada interview, Mr. Trudeau also shared his thoughts on another Liberal leadership candidate, former Ontario premier Bob Rae.

He said Mr. Rae is a good man, but lacks the grand vision necessary to be party leader.

Mr. Trudeau also suggested that the Liberal party faithful should look beyond the leadership front-runners to younger candidates such as Stephane Dion and Gerard Kennedy.

 

[canadianblue]

New poll put Liberals ahead of Tories for first time in a year
Wed Nov 15, 5:15 PM



By Alexander Panetta

PUBLICITÉ

OTTAWA (CP) - Respondents to a new national poll placed the federal Liberals ahead of the Conservatives for the first time in almost a year.


However, the narrow Liberal lead in the Decima poll was within the three-percentage-point margin of error, which means it's too close to say who's really ahead. The Grits had the support of 33 per cent of respondents nationally, while the Tories had 31 per cent, the NDP had 15 per cent and the Green party had 10.


The results of the survey, provided to The Canadian Press, may give Liberals pause for thought as they prepare to select a new leader in two weeks.


The Liberals' improved poll results over recent months have already had an influence as the party approaches its leadership convention.


Much of the talk in Liberal circles earlier this year was about picking someone to lead a rebuilding process during a lengthy exile in opposition.


But that talk is quickly narrowing to a single question: Which leadership candidate can immediately step in and win a general election?


Decima's head pollster said the next election appears - at this point - to be anyone's game.


"The impact of the choice of Liberal leader remains unknown," said Decima chief executive Bruce Anderson.


"However, these numbers underscore that the national race continues to tighten, and the outcome of the next election is becoming less predictable."


Decima polls had the Liberals consistently behind the Tories ever since the income-trust scandal exploded in the middle of the last election campaign in late December 2005.


The Grits had even collapsed briefly into a tie with the third-place NDP by February, before their results began to improve in the spring.


The shift has been most dramatic in Quebec.


Just months ago, the Liberals were also-rans in the province and the Tories were competing with the first-place Bloc Quebecois. Every Decima poll since late summer has shown that trend reversing.


In the most recent survey, the Liberals held a crushing lead over the Tories with the support of 26 per cent of respondents, compared with 12 per cent for the Conservatives.


The Bloc Quebecois still towered above all others with 44 per cent support in the province.


However, the margin of error for regional breakdowns is much higher than for the national survey.


One bright spot for the Conservatives was that they were still neck-and-neck with the Liberals in Ontario. The Grits were at 38 per cent in the province, while the Tories were at 37 per cent, though again the margin of error is much higher for the provincial breakdown so it's impossible to say who's really ahead.

The poll of 1,126 Canadians was conducted from Nov. 9 to 13 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Yeah :

 

[vonGarvin]

First, they say this:
New poll put Liberals ahead of Tories for first time in a year
Then, in the story, they bury this:
However, the narrow Liberal lead in the Decima poll was within the three-percentage-point margin of error, which means it's too close to say who's really ahead.

I see no bias, do you?

 

[Zell_Dietrich]

First, they say this:
New poll put Liberals ahead of Tories for first time in a year
Then, in the story, they bury this:
However, the narrow Liberal lead in the Decima poll was within the three-percentage-point margin of error, which means it's too close to say who's really ahead.

I see no bias, do you?

well going from a comply 10 point lead to neck and neck.... we can call it bias. But there we are,
(I wish I could take the good point of the Tories mix it with the good parts of the NDP and make a new political party that was socail progressive and fiscally sound... god knows that it isn't the liberals)

 

[vonGarvin]

That 10 point lead could have been anywhere from 7 % lead to 13 % lead (19 times out of 20)
The current position could be anywhere from a 2% lead to a 4% deficit.  (19 times out of 20).
So, the Conservatives dropped 17% vis a vis the liberals OR they dropped 5% vis a vis the liberals.  How many jumped ship?  Was it one in twenty or one in five?


That's the problem with polls: see the difference that stuff makes.


My point is that the headline, which most people will see and not investigate further by reading, says, unequivocally, that the liberals lead the tories.  If people read on, they find a conflicting statement, that says it is a statistical tie.

In my opinion, a less-biased headline would have read "Tories lose support", "Liberals gain ground in Polls" or something similar.

 

[canadianblue]

well going from a comply 10 point lead to neck and neck.... we can call it bias. But there we are,
(I wish I could take the good point of the Tories mix it with the good parts of the NDP and make a new political party that was socail progressive and fiscally sound... god knows that it isn't the liberals)

Liberals usually only go by what the polls tell them. I actually agree with alot of what the NDP says in terms of policy, but since I'm a social moderate, and the fact Jack Layton seems to only go after the protest vote he would never get my vote.

 

[patrick666]

Show me a leader and maybe I'll like him/her.

 

[RangerRay]

IIRC, Decima is a Liberal-friendly polling firm, as well as Environics...

I have heard anecdotal stories of persons being contacted by polling companies, and hung up on when they weren't giving the "right" answers.  Polls are for dogs.

 

[3rd Horseman]

Im still laughing....9 pages long and still going.

 

[a_majoor]

Why Bob Rae may indeed be the choice of the Liberal Establishment:

http://jojourn.blogspot.com/2006/11/globe-admits-left-wing-agenda.html

Globe admits left-wing agenda

Since one of my readers has threatened to switch to Red Tory if I don't post something new soon (which BTW is a very curious and desperate leap!), I thought I'd highlight today's Toronto Sun editorial "Globe sees the light at last".

The Sun editorial board is celebrating the recent John Ibbitson column "Bob Rae and the China Syndrome", where he candidly admits that small-c conservatives and Albertans in particular have reason to be suspicious about media, judges and others in positions of power and influence.



A governing class of senior public servants, academics, artists, journalists, lawyers and judges belongs to a community of common interest physically and intellectually centred in downtown Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa.


Ibbitson continues:


For them, Stephen Harper is not simply a politician, he is a wrecker: a cold-blooded leader of a band of vulgar ideologues that, with every action, destabilizes the liberal consensus that has dominated the federal government for generations.



The Sun finds it ironic that this very frank observation comes from "a senior Globe writer and member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery, two institutions many westerners (and others) see as house organs of the eastern liberal elites."



I managed to locate the original column by going through Google. This paragraph really resonated with me:


And on Conservative domestic policy, don't get the liberal consensus started. All this stacking of judicial advisory committees with police representatives, these barbaric proposals to impose mandatory minimum sentences and to abolish the gun registry..
.

In my recent post, New Drugged-Driving Legislation, Mac voiced his frustration regarding too-lenient judges that undermine the process of sending a serious message about impaired driving. The obvious solution seems to be to get some police input into judicial selection, but of course those elitist judges and lawyers have their knickers in a knot over that idea!

What's refreshing though, is to have a member of the actual power class come out with this admission. So we weren't just dreaming here! It is a real and serious undercurrent running through the Canadian political scene. The elitists see Bob Rae as their best chance of deposing the "wrecker" and regaining solid control of their power entitlements.

The Liberal Leadership Convention and the next general election will both be fascinating to watch as we witness the battle of the elitists vs. the last vestiges of democracy in Canada.

Let's hope that the dog starts wagging the tail again someday very soon.

 

[Desert Fox]

None of them!!!

Dont you remember 1993-2005?

 

[exsemjingo]

I'm watching the debates now.  Where was this rhetorical gusto when they were in office?

And what's with the Aids ribbons?

 

[vonGarvin]

And what's with the Aids ribbons?

It's world AIDS day