US Presidential Election 2024 - Trump vs Harris - Vote Hard with a Vengence

[dimsum]

Literally the opposite. I don't recall recall you commenting on all the politicians whose net worth increased by orders of magnitude on public salaries. Yet you say this about a guy who donated his salary and was already a billionaire.

…and now hawking Bibles and shoes.

Maybe he should have kept his salary instead

 

[Lumber]

Not sure if that is a real indicator. Margins are worse than they were with Biden but better than Clinton. Both were also ahead.

Seems she’s polling with significant leads though in all swing states except Nevada.

That could mean anything at this point though.

Yes, and I've been trying to find a solid analysis of the comparison, but the way I figure it is this:

The last election was COVID, and during that election, Democrats voted early in huge margins. So, the fact that the numbers are lower now, where without COVID more Dens are likely willing to vote in person, makes sense. However, does the decrease match historic non-covid early voting rates, or is it up?

 

[brihard]

I do think that there will be a quiet but significant wave of women exercising their secret ballot to vote for Harris, and not disclosing that to polling companies or their husbands. The Democrats have been pushing this option in some of their messaging, and I think that’s wise. It’s valid for them to be concerned about what a Trump/Vance administration would mean for the status and rights of women.

 

[Jarnhamar]

What makes Trump a fascist?

 

[dimsum]

What makes Trump a fascist?

Interestingly, a few articles have come out in the past couple of days. But, I think this one sums it up best:

Opinion: Harris finally calls Trump a fascist. But don't take her word for it. Take his.

It's not enough for Kamala Harris to call Trump a fascist. Democrats should back their claims with what the former president says and does.

www.usatoday.com

Jason Stanley, a Yale philosophy professor, is the author of “Erasing History: How Fascists Rewrite the Past to Control the Future.” He has been describing Trump’s rhetoric and actions as fascist since 2018. In a Vox interview from the time, he described fascism's key components as "identifying enemies, appealing to the in-group (usually the majority group) and smashing truth and replacing it with power."

“The fact is, it was correct then and it’s correct now,” Stanley told me this month. “And if you realized Trump was a fascist, you would have known he would try to stay in power.”

I would slightly disagree in that Trump doesn’t want to stay in power because he’s a fascist. Trump wants to stay in power or else he goes to jail.

Link to the 2018 interview, where he expands a bit more: How fascism works

 

[Jarnhamar]

Interestingly, a few articles have come out in the past couple of days. But, I think this one sums it up best:

Opinion: Harris finally calls Trump a fascist. But don't take her word for it. Take his.

It's not enough for Kamala Harris to call Trump a fascist. Democrats should back their claims with what the former president says and does.

www.usatoday.com

I would slightly disagree in that Trump doesn’t want to stay in power because he’s a fascist. Trump wants to stay in power or else he goes to jail.

Link to the 2018 interview, where he expands a bit more: How fascism works

I'll take some time and trad through that, thanks. At a quick glance this quote stuck out for obvious close to home reasons.

“And if you realized Trump was a fascist, you would have known he would try to stay in power.”

 

[Remius]

Yes, and I've been trying to find a solid analysis of the comparison, but the way I figure it is this:

The last election was COVID, and during that election, Democrats voted early in huge margins. So, the fact that the numbers are lower now, where without COVID more Dens are likely willing to vote in person, makes sense. However, does the decrease match historic non-covid early voting rates, or is it up?

WAPO has a decent article on it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/31/polls-show-harris-with-big-early-vote-lead-despite-gop-gains/

 

[dimsum]

I'll take some time and trad through that, thanks. At a quick glance this quote stuck out for obvious close to home reasons.

I’d argue that all sorts of people want to stay in power, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re all fascist.

Narcissist, egomaniac, etc doesn’t equal fascist - they are personality traits while “fascist” also includes political leanings and actions, as per the linked article.

 

[RangerRay]

I would also argue that like communism, fascism is revolutionary in that it involves upending, destroying and remaking institutions and societies to solidify their power.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Not sure if that is a real indicator. Margins are worse than they were with Biden but better than Clinton. Both were also ahead.

Seems she’s polling with significant leads though in all swing states except Nevada.

That could mean anything at this point though.

Democrats are customarily expected to outpace Republicans in early voting. A more useful indicator would be to take a ratio of the numbers to determine whether the gap has closed or widened.

[Add: also more useful to compare elections other than 2020, in which atypically high numbers of Republicans voted early.]

 

[RangerRay]

They certainly messed up predicting that Russia would not invade Ukraine

No, Russia will not invade Ukraine

A large-scale military operation does not fit into Moscow’s cost-benefit calculus.

www.aljazeera.com

How Did Everybody Get The Ukraine Invasion Predictions So Wrong?

In the run-up to Russia’s February 2022 invasion, many doubted it would happen. And when it did, the wide consensus was that Ukraine’s military would be routed, Kyiv would be captured in days, the government would fall. None of that occurred – not even close. Why were so many people so wrong?

www.rferl.org

When I saw a report a few months before the invasion that Russia had given Ukraine an ultimatum with a list of demands that no nation that wanted to remain sovereign would acquiesce to, I knew Moscow would invade. It was extremely reminiscent of Austria’s ultimatum to Serbia during the July Crisis of 1914. Austria wanted war with Serbia and issued an ultimatum that they knew Serbia would never agree to.

 

[Jarnhamar]

I’d argue that all sorts of people want to stay in power, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re all fascist.

Up to and including removing their own parties ability to remove them. That sort of seems like something a fascist would do.

Narcissist, egomaniac, etc doesn’t equal fascist - they are personality traits while “fascist” also includes political leanings and actions, as per the linked article.

The first couple definitions I looked at aired more on the inclusion of violence.
This article seems to really broaden the definition.

Overall would you say Trumps time as president was one marked by violence?

 

[dimsum]

Up to and including removing their own parties ability to remove them. That sort of seems like something a fascist would do.


The first couple definitions I looked at aired more on the inclusion of violence.
This article seems to really broaden the definition.

Overall would you say Trumps time as president was one marked by violence?

Well there was that Jan 6th thing…

Edit to add: @KevinB already “thumbs-up”-ed but the definitions are about the overall result of those policies.

Allow me to Godwin’s Law this a sec, but Hitler didn’t start with the concentration camps. He started with the rhetoric, the “lying press”, etc in the early 1930s. Jan 6th and Beer Hall Putsch (yes, that was 1923 and the outcomes were different)…those comparisons are what I see now, not the invasion of Poland.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Well there was that Jan 6th thing…

There was. You could also point out twice as many people were shot on July 13, 2024, including a US presidential candidate, under Biden.

Are the events of January 6 enough to consider the 4 years marked by violence though?

What im driving for here is the civil war and blood bath in the streets people predicted in 2016 didn't come to pass. Not even close. Trump didn't start a bunch of new wars, Americans weren't thrown in Canadian-Japanese style internment camps, American rights weren't violently stripped.

There's a lot of fear mongering, it doesn't look justified.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Allow me to Godwin’s Law this a sec, but Hitler didn’t start with the concentration camps. He started with the rhetoric, the “lying press”, etc in the early 1930s.

I'm not sure if the press was lying in the 1930s, I'm not confident they aren't lying about various issues now. The Harris 60 Minutes interview word salad answer swap comes to mind.

Hitler also enacted laws restricting civilian firearearm ownership. Like Harris indicated she would (and like our own PM has).

 

[KevinB]

I'm not sure if the press was lying in the 1930s, I'm not confident they aren't lying about various issues now. The Harris 60 Minutes interview word salad answer swap comes to mind.

Hitler also enacted laws restricting civilian firearearm ownership. Like Harris indicated she would (and like our own PM has).

Fortunately we have the 2nd Amendment, and a USSC that has affirmed the fact that firearms in common use cannot be banned.

The unfortunate nature of the country’s current polarization means that many important issues are not being discussed and compromises reached.

I’m a firm 2A supporter, but I understand that with rights come responsibilities, and we as a nation need to invest more in mental health. But that would require compromise

I’m pro-life, but I understand that in order to viably and effectively restrict abortion without creating massive issues, one needs to have better sex education, greater access to affordable health and childcare and maternity leave and benefits.
But that would require compromise.

I could go on about immigration, and many other issues that plague us and are foisted as divisive ideas but 99.99% of problems down here are simply because side refuse to budge or want more after an already created compromise.

 

[RangerRay]

Anne Applebaum on the language of fascism.

On vermin

Some closing thoughts

anneapplebaum.substack.com

 

[QV]

JD Vance is on Joe Rogan. Interestingly a search within the Youtube App shows the full video pop right up... glitches or anomalies ever only impact Trump... anyway... I have not watched the entire show yet, however if you can't relate to Vance in the first 5 min of that interview you might not be human. From what I've seen so far, Vance might be the next RNC superpower.

 

[Lumber]

JD Vance is on Joe Rogan. Interestingly a search within the Youtube App shows the full video pop right up... glitches or anomalies ever only impact Trump... anyway... I have not watched the entire show yet, however if you can't relate to Vance in the first 5 min of that interview you might not be human. From what I've seen so far, Vance might be the next RNC superpower.

I went ahead and did just that, and you know what? You're right, I absolutely could relate to him. I have kids of similar ages to him, and the stories they told and the excitement/love in their faces as they told stories about their kids reminded me of how I feel about my own children.

It did not, however, change my opinion of his suitability to be POTUS.

 

[RangerRay]

Francis Fukuyama suggests ignoring the fascism debate and focusing on the indecency.

It’s Not the Fascism That Should Bother Us

The debate over Trump's style of politics obscures his profound indecency.

www.persuasion.community