US, NATO Outta Afghanistan 2021

[CBH99]

One if my good buddies was born in Afghanistan, but raised here since he was just a wee lad.

His little sister doesn’t look all that Afghan. Light skin, and her features are far more akin to a Euro-Ottoman mix.

When she first told me they were from Afghanistan, she quipped “ We were bleached a few centuries ago”

Took me years to figure out what she meant

 

[MJP]

I know of an edition of National Geographic in which the cover photo was of an Afghan teen age girl with bright green eyes - in 1985. Apparently some of Alexander's troops decided to stay put.

Link

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/tbYAAOSwmfFf4r1H/s-l300.jpg

She is Sharbat Gula. Lots of backstory to that photo and the photojournalist in question Steve McCurry used questionable methods to take the photo. The story is Sharbat Gula eyes reflect the hardship of war but really she is scared of Steve taking photos of her without her face being covered. She was pressured then and again in 2017 to show her face.

Famed 'Afghan Girl' Finally Gets a Home

More than 30 years after she became a refugee from her native Afghanistan, Sharbat Gula has been deeded a permanent house.

www.nationalgeographic.com

 

[OldSolduer]

Now that I have completely derailed this conversation I may as well plug a podcast. Dan Carlin's Hardcore History had a four or five part series called "The Wrath of the Khans".

Getting back to Afghanistan - what's next?

 

[Remius]

Now that I have completely derailed this conversation I may as well plug a podcast. Dan Carlin's Hardcore History had a four or five part series called "The Wrath of the Khans".

Getting back to Afghanistan - what's next?

I suspect a Taliban takeover and a quest for legitimacy by them.

 

[medic5]

Now that I have completely derailed this conversation I may as well plug a podcast. Dan Carlin's Hardcore History had a four or five part series called "The Wrath of the Khans".

Getting back to Afghanistan - what's next?

Dan Carlin's podcast is absolutely amazing. I've been listening to his Pacific War series, and I am enjoying all 20 hours of it.

 

[medic5]

I suspect a Taliban takeover and a quest for legitimacy by them.

My guess is the Taliban slowly takes over parts of the country, overwhelming the ANA, and when the west is distracted by something big, they capture the rest of the country and throw out the government and embassies.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

when the Taliban have no money to fix the roads, provide fuel for the generators to run the cell towers and no one to run the dam for them and the water disappears. then they will rue the day they "won".

 

[Brad Sallows]

I just would have rather we got it to a manageable state

"Manageable state" and "fixed" are both so far out on the tail of diminishing returns as to be indistinguishable. There is no COA which is inexpensive, quick, and worthwhile.

 

[Weinie]

when the Taliban have no money to fix the roads, provide fuel for the generators to run the cell towers and no one to run the dam for them and the water disappears. then they will rue the day they "won".

But they will have money to feed themselves, and their enablers, thus continuing their rule. It is always so under an autocracy.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

when the Taliban have no money to fix the roads, provide fuel for the generators to run the cell towers and no one to run the dam for them and the water disappears. then they will rue the day they "won".

This.

You can only suppress opposition so much, especially when the people you are suppressing have gotten comfortable with a certain way of life. When the Taliban "Department of Public Works" fails to manifest, there will be hell to pay.

"The extraordinary greatness of the Roman Empire manifests itself above all in three things: the aqueducts, the paved roads, and the construction of the drains."
Dionysius of Halicarnassus

 

[Weinie]

This.

You can only suppress opposition so much, especially when the people you are suppressing have gotten comfortable with a certain way of life. When the Taliban "Department of Public Works" fails to manifest, there will be hell to pay.

"The extraordinary greatness of the Roman Empire manifests itself above all in three things: the aqueducts, the paved roads, and the construction of the drains."
Dionysius of Halicarnassus

Hell to pay quails in the face of AK-47's. I hope you are right.

 

[brihard]

The place is shot. Check back in in 50 years. We tried to establish and prop up a centralized government on a series of lines on the map that encapsulate a body politic that is arguably ungovernable in any way we would envision or accept.

Durand got us again.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

The place is shot. Check back in in 50 years. We tried to establish and prop up a centralized government on a series of lines on the map that encapsulate a body politic that is arguably ungovernable in any way we would envision or accept.

Durand got us again.

I see this as simply a new phase of the war. The IRoA was never a real polity anyways and never controlled the entire Country, even with NATO there. The Taliban, even at the height of their power just prior to 9/11/01 only controlled around 75% of the Country. There is no guarantee that the Taliban will be able to even come close to achieving that this time around.

I see Afghanistan going the way Colombia was for 50+ years with large portions of the Countryside being under control of the Taliban (which is already the case) and Kabul remaining under the control of the IRoA. Other players may also emerge that aren't allied to either side. The IRoA should consolidate around Kabul and leave the South entirely. At this point, the Taliban control roughly 1/3 of Afghanistan's population while the IRoA controls 1/3 with roughly another 1/3 being in contested areas.

If the IRoA tries to fight the Taliban everywhere, that is a losing strategy and it will surely fail. What may actually happen is this becomes a long and protracted civil war that goes on for decades and Afghanistan fractures in to several new States.

 

[Altair]

I see this as simply a new phase of the war. The IRoA was never a real polity anyways and never controlled the entire Country, even with NATO there. The Taliban, even at the height of their power just prior to 9/11/01 only controlled around 75% of the Country. There is no guarantee that the Taliban will be able to even come close to achieving that this time around.

I see Afghanistan going the way Colombia was for 50+ years with large portions of the Countryside being under control of the Taliban (which is already the case) and Kabul remaining under the control of the IRoA. Other players may also emerge that aren't allied to either side. The IRoA should consolidate around Kabul and leave the South entirely. At this point, the Taliban control roughly 1/3 of Afghanistan's population while the IRoA controls 1/3 with roughly another 1/3 being in contested areas.

If the IRoA tries to fight the Taliban everywhere, that is a losing strategy and it will surely fail. What may actually happen is this becomes a long and protracted civil war that goes on for decades and Afghanistan fractures in to several new States.

Consolidation sounds nice, but one needs an army that will actually fight for that to happen.

Otherwise the taliban will do what napoleon did, and win simply by marching.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Quick anniversary note - 10 years since Canada's combat mission wrapped up.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Consolidation sounds nice, but one needs an army that will actually fight for that to happen.

Otherwise the taliban will do what napoleon and ISIS did, and win simply by marching.

There, FTFY

 

[quadrapiper]

There, FTFY

Didn't the Iraqi army, pre-ISIS, appear much more stable than the ANA, too?

 

[OldSolduer]

when the Taliban have no money to fix the roads, provide fuel for the generators to run the cell towers and no one to run the dam for them and the water disappears. then they will rue the day they "won". I’m

As long as the scum of the earth Taliban have enough to supply themselves they'll be ok with stoning women and infidels. Barbarians.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Didn't the Iraqi army, pre-ISIS, appear much more stable than the ANA, too?

Not 'Precipitous Post-US withdrawal' they weren't....

 

[Altair]

There, FTFY

Speed, surprise, audacity, if they were not extremist cold blooded murderers one would be impressed with how ISIS and the taliban are conducting their lightning campaigns.