US, NATO Outta Afghanistan 2021

[Czech_pivo]

Serious question here. What's going to happen to all the remaining Canadians once the Americans and British vacate Kabul airport? As of now I think its fairly certain that Canada will not be getting them all out.

 

[QV]

…for a second there, I thought he was referring to Iraq, and pandering to G.W. and the contrived WMDs….

This goes to show that many politicians will spare no effort in hypocritical denigration of others. Blair certainly isn’t someone I’d put on the short list of great leaders…

"Never underestimate Joe's ability to f--- things up." - Barack Obama

Barack Obama has privately voiced concerns that Joe Biden could 'f--- things up,' according to a report

There are said to be tensions between the Biden and Obama camps over the former president's perceived lack of support for Biden's White House bid.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[CBH99]

Serious question here. What's going to happen to all the remaining Canadians once the Americans and British vacate Kabul airport? As of now I think its fairly certain that Canada will not be getting them all out.

With the way the current situation is - both in terms of the tactical and humanitarian situation on the ground around the airport, as well as whatever goals various western governments have - I think it is safe to say that nobody will be getting all of their people out.

With the exception of SAR, and certain SOF missions — there IS such a thing as mission failure (even though it doesn’t sound as cool as a ‘no fail mission.’) And I think we should expect that with the goal posts as vague as they are right now, I’m not even sure we can define what mission success even looks like.


To try and answer your question the best I can (hopefully someone else has a better answer)

- How many Canadian citizens are in Kabul right now? Is mission success getting every single one of them out?

- Are we evacuating embassy staff & support workers? Or are we finally evacuating our interpreters and other contracted help, 10yrs after the fact? Are we defining success by getting all of them out? (If they weren’t residing in Kabul, how would we even locate them?)

- Are we shooting for embassy staff, workers, our former interpreters & their families, and any Afghan that has been waiting on a visa approval? Any minority or vulnerable person we can cram on a plane?



Without defining first what our objectives are, and in what order we are prioritizing them, it will be hard for us to say whether we succeeded in accomplishing the mission or not.

My guess? Once the Americans leave, everybody else will be forced to get their troops onto a plane and leave also. And that will be that.

Embassy staff & contracted workers have all been evacuated, so it seems. Now we seem to be focusing on duel citizens, Afghans who were waiting on a visa, etc. Once the Americans leave, I imagine everybody else will have to also. We can’t evac the whole city.

^ Just my assumption

 

[Czech_pivo]

With the way the current situation is - both in terms of the tactical and humanitarian situation on the ground around the airport, as well as whatever goals various western governments have - I think it is safe to say that nobody will be getting all of their people out.

With the exception of SAR, and certain SOF missions — there IS such a thing as mission failure (even though it doesn’t sound as cool as a ‘no fail mission.’) And I think we should expect that with the goal posts as vague as they are right now, I’m not even sure we can define what mission success even looks like.


To try and answer your question the best I can (hopefully someone else has a better answer)

- How many Canadian citizens are in Kabul right now? Is mission success getting every single one of them out?

- Are we evacuating embassy staff & support workers? Or are we finally evacuating our interpreters and other contracted help, 10yrs after the fact? Are we defining success by getting all of them out? (If they weren’t residing in Kabul, how would we even locate them?)

- Are we shooting for embassy staff, workers, our former interpreters & their families, and any Afghan that has been waiting on a visa approval? Any minority or vulnerable person we can cram on a plane?



Without defining first what our objectives are, and in what order we are prioritizing them, it will be hard for us to say whether we succeeded in accomplishing the mission or not.

My guess? Once the Americans leave, everybody else will be forced to get their troops onto a plane and leave also. And that will be that.

Embassy staff & contracted workers have all been evacuated, so it seems. Now we seem to be focusing on duel citizens, Afghans who were waiting on a visa, etc. Once the Americans leave, I imagine everybody else will have to also. We can’t evac the whole city.

^ Just my assumption

Makes sense. Outside of Kabul it’s all basically a no go zone now. I’d expect that priority one is the Embassy staff and they are all most likely out now, then down the list we go in terms of assigned priority. Nasty reading about the alleged friction between the Brits and the US. Going to be very ver interesting to see how the last few flights manage to get off the tarmac as I assume the remaining Afghans within the perimeter and outside the perimeter begin to see that the end is near. They will most likely have to rely on the Taliban to secure the tarmac to allow the last flight to run down the tarmac unopposed….

 

[CBH99]

Makes sense. Outside of Kabul it’s all basically a no go zone now. I’d expect that priority one is the Embassy staff and they are all most likely out now, then down the list we go in terms of assigned priority. Nasty reading about the alleged friction between the Brits and the US. Going to be very ver interesting to see how the last few flights manage to get off the tarmac as I assume the remaining Afghans within the perimeter and outside the perimeter begin to see that the end is near. They will most likely have to rely on the Taliban to secure the tarmac to allow the last flight to run down the tarmac unopposed….

I suspect you are right.

What a funny world we live in… who would have thought of ‘this’ as being the finale? In the sense that:

- We spent 20 years killing the Taliban, and they did the same to us.

- Now we are asking them to help keep the masses of people from storming the airfield, which they are doing at our request.

- We went to help the people of Afghanistan rid themselves of Taliban rule.

- We went about this by building schools and infrastructure, good will gestures, patrolling villages and back country, and…well…killing the same dickheads we are now asking to help us. Asking them to keep the people away, even though WE were the ones trying to help those people by eliminating Taliban.


Goodness gracious I just got dizzy from trying to wrap my head around the dark irony of it all!


- The frustration on the ground between the Yanks & Brits I imagine will be short lived. Both commanders and forces were thrown into a total shitstorm without a real plan, no idea how to identify who was good to go & who wasnt, being fed droplets of information by their respective governments who were both caught off guard, etc.

I imagine the US commander wasn’t sharing much info at first because he was probably figuring it all out, along with everybody else. Those first few days were extremely fluid, not just with Afghan civilians storming the airfield, but coalition NEO stuff happening also. Just imagine the absolute clusterf**k he is trying to sort out at the time - I imagine he was swimming in conflicting reports, changing intel, conflicting messages, constantly changing narratives, etc. The same goes for the Brits also. I imagine it was more frustration, confusion, lack of a plan for either of them to work with - and looking to each other for a working plan, which neither of them had, etc.

(6000 troops sounds great, but was there a plan to feed them? Provide them with water? Replacement batteries for NVG equipment, radios, etc. Fuel for vehicles. How long is he expected to be there for? Where will those troops use as a base for sleep, food, etc? How many people does he need to evacuate? Does he have a complete list of names? Is he supposed to evacuate non-citizens also? If so, who? Why? When do the planes come back after they depart? What are his ROE if the Taliban show up? Wait, the Taliban are now assisting him in controlling the crowds? Are you sure? WTF is happening!? )

Im sure the tensions will go away decently quickly. The politicians who are already calling for a ‘full review of their bilateral relationship’ need to STFU, stop jumping the gun, and focus on the task at hand. They are just making noise, at a time when there doesn’t need to be any.

Both countries have invested huge sums of money to not only be interoperable, but literally deploy together on a constant basis. (USMC squadrons filling out the numbers on HMS carriers is a good example)


When this is all finished, I am fairly certain that relationship will go back to looking much prettier

 

[Weinie]

I suspect you are right.

What a funny world we live in… who would have thought of ‘this’ as being the finale? In the sense that:

- We spent 20 years killing the Taliban, and they did the same to us.

- Now we are asking them to help keep the masses of people from storming the airfield, which they are doing at our request.

- We went to help the people of Afghanistan rid themselves of Taliban rule.

- We went about this by building schools and infrastructure, good will gestures, patrolling villages and back country, and…well…killing the same dickheads we are now asking to help us. Asking them to keep the people away, even though WE were the ones trying to help those people by eliminating Taliban.


Goodness gracious I just got dizzy from trying to wrap my head around the dark irony of it all!


- The frustration on the ground between the Yanks & Brits I imagine will be short lived. Both commanders and forces were thrown into a total shitstorm without a real plan, no idea how to identify who was good to go & who wasnt, being fed droplets of information by their respective governments who were both caught off guard, etc.

I imagine the US commander wasn’t sharing much info at first because he was probably figuring it all out, along with everybody else. Those first few days were extremely fluid, not just with Afghan civilians storming the airfield, but coalition NEO stuff happening also. Just imagine the absolute clusterf**k he is trying to sort out at the time - I imagine he was swimming in conflicting reports, changing intel, conflicting messages, constantly changing narratives, etc. The same goes for the Brits also. I imagine it was more frustration, confusion, lack of a plan for either of them to work with - and looking to each other for a working plan, which neither of them had, etc.

(6000 troops sounds great, but was there a plan to feed them? Provide them with water? Replacement batteries for NVG equipment, radios, etc. Fuel for vehicles. How long is he expected to be there for? Where will those troops use as a base for sleep, food, etc? How many people does he need to evacuate? Does he have a complete list of names? Is he supposed to evacuate non-citizens also? If so, who? Why? When do the planes come back after they depart? What are his ROE if the Taliban show up? Wait, the Taliban are now assisting him in controlling the crowds? Are you sure? WTF is happening!? )

Im sure the tensions will go away decently quickly. The politicians who are already calling for a ‘full review of their bilateral relationship’ need to STFU, stop jumping the gun, and focus on the task at hand. They are just making noise, at a time when there doesn’t need to be any.

Both countries have invested huge sums of money to not only be interoperable, but literally deploy together on a constant basis. (USMC squadrons filling out the numbers on HMS carriers is a good example)


When this is all finished, I am fairly certain that relationship will go back to looking much prettier

And then finally, after all others have been evac'd, he has to come up with a plan to get his 6000 soldiers out of Kabul. If I were a bad person, I would say that this is the time to strike, as the PR downside for killing soldiers is much preferable to killing civilians. You could claim that it was multiple actors.

 

[Jarnhamar]

And then finally, after all others have been evac'd, he has to come up with a plan to get his 6000 soldiers out of Kabul. If I were a bad person, I would say that this is the time to strike, as the PR downside for killing soldiers is much preferable to killing civilians. You could claim that it was multiple actors.

An enterprising Taliban commander could dress some Taliban up in American uniforms with American kit and blast civilians. Make sure it's recorded and let it leak to the media.
Hell Taliban could even use the American dressed dudes and make it look like US SOF is carrying out assassinations on the way out. Take out an ANA commander and make people wonder why "Americans" would do that. What did he know that the US wanted hidden?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Jarhamar, lets hope they are not that creative...

 

[OldSolduer]

An enterprising Taliban commander could dress some Taliban up in American uniforms with American kit and blast civilians. Make sure it's recorded and let it leak to the media.
Hell Taliban could even use the American dressed dudes and make it look like US SOF is carrying out assassinations on the way out. Take out an ANA commander and make people wonder why "Americans" would do that. What did he know that the US wanted hidden?

I'm not all that savvy about tech stuff but can the T people read this? They have had 20 years and I doubt they aren't cave dwellers anymore.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I'm not all that savvy about tech stuff but can the T people read this? They have had 20 years and I doubt they aren't cave dwellers anymore.

Never say never, but I suspect there's people in the Taliban's info-machine that don't have to read this idea here to already be working on it.

So, will Taliban 2.0 play nice to the world a bit longer, or not?

• "Britain, other allies push back on Biden’s Aug. 31 deadline to leave Kabul" (Washington Post via stripes.com)
• "Taliban won't extend August 31 deadline for Western forces to leave" (Reuters via Times of India)

 

[Good2Golf]

I think the TB are actually smart enough to know that such an idea has limited gains for significant risks.

 

[blacktriangle]

If I were a bad person, I would say that this is the time to strike, as the PR downside for killing soldiers is much preferable to killing civilians. You could claim that it was multiple actors.

The Taliban & Daesh aren't exactly friends, so I can see some potential scenarios there. Same with a false flag conducted by Afghan "Resistance" in a bid to draw Westerners back in, or delay departure.

I think it's in the best interest of the Taliban (and any potential foreign actors seeking to do business with them) to have the withdrawal occur as quickly & smoothly as possible. Resource extraction and participation in initiatives such as Belt & Road will require security/stability.

 

[Weinie]

The Taliban & Daesh aren't exactly friends, so I can see some potential scenarios there. Same with a false flag conducted by Afghan "Resistance" in a bid to draw Westerners back in, or delay departure.

I think it's in the best interest of the Taliban (and any potential foreign actors seeking to do business with them) to have the withdrawal occur as quickly & smoothly as possible. Resource extraction and participation in initiatives such as Belt & Road will require security/stability.

This.

 

[blacktriangle]

6000 troops sounds great, but was there a plan to feed them? Provide them with water? Replacement batteries for NVG equipment, radios, etc. Fuel for vehicles. How long is he expected to be there for? Where will those troops use as a base for sleep, food, etc?

At least some of the conventional forces on the ground are Marines assigned to SPMAGTF-CR-CC. They are positioned forward to respond to contingencies in CENTCOM AOR, and have some sustainment capabilities as well as their own air assets. Still not enough for something of this magnitude, which is why they've been reinforced by the US Army & others.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Looks like that's a firm 'best before date':

Taliban warns of ‘consequences’ if US delays withdrawal​

Evacuations of citizens and vulnerable Afghans beyond the August 31 deadline would be ‘extending occupation’, the Taliban says.

The Taliban will not agree to an extension of the evacuation mission from Afghanistan, and is “warning of consequences” if it is prolonged.
The move would mean “extending occupation” and that is “a red line”, Suhail Shaheen, a member of the Taliban delegation in Doha, the capital of Qatar, said on Monday.

United States President Joe Biden said on Sunday that the “hard and painful” airlift of Americans and tens of thousands of others from Afghanistan’s capital is accelerating, but he would not rule out extending it beyond the August 31 deadline he set before the Taliban’s swift takeover.

The airport has been the scene of chaos since the Taliban seized the Afghan capital on August 15 as US and international forces try to evacuate citizens and vulnerable Afghans. A NATO official has said that at least 20 people have died in and around the airport in the past week.

An Afghan security guard has been killed in a firefight between unknown gunmen and Afghan forces at the north gate of Kabul airport, the German military said, as thousands thronged the airport, seeking to flee Taliban rule.

Three more people were injured in the gun battle on Monday morning that has also involved German and US forces, the German military said on Twitter.

Taliban warns of ‘consequences’ if US delays withdrawal

US president to decide on extension of August 31 withdrawal deadline as Taliban warns against ‘extending occupation’.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[OldSolduer]

Looks like that's a firm 'best before date':

Taliban warns of ‘consequences’ if US delays withdrawal​

Evacuations of citizens and vulnerable Afghans beyond the August 31 deadline would be ‘extending occupation’, the Taliban says.

The Taliban will not agree to an extension of the evacuation mission from Afghanistan, and is “warning of consequences” if it is prolonged.
The move would mean “extending occupation” and that is “a red line”, Suhail Shaheen, a member of the Taliban delegation in Doha, the capital of Qatar, said on Monday.

United States President Joe Biden said on Sunday that the “hard and painful” airlift of Americans and tens of thousands of others from Afghanistan’s capital is accelerating, but he would not rule out extending it beyond the August 31 deadline he set before the Taliban’s swift takeover.

The airport has been the scene of chaos since the Taliban seized the Afghan capital on August 15 as US and international forces try to evacuate citizens and vulnerable Afghans. A NATO official has said that at least 20 people have died in and around the airport in the past week.

An Afghan security guard has been killed in a firefight between unknown gunmen and Afghan forces at the north gate of Kabul airport, the German military said, as thousands thronged the airport, seeking to flee Taliban rule.

Three more people were injured in the gun battle on Monday morning that has also involved German and US forces, the German military said on Twitter.

Taliban warns of ‘consequences’ if US delays withdrawal

US president to decide on extension of August 31 withdrawal deadline as Taliban warns against ‘extending occupation’.

www.aljazeera.com

I think a gunfight is upcoming. Damn this is perilous.

What is China saying and what is Russia saying?

 

[Weinie]

Looks like that's a firm 'best before date':

Taliban warns of ‘consequences’ if US delays withdrawal​

Evacuations of citizens and vulnerable Afghans beyond the August 31 deadline would be ‘extending occupation’, the Taliban says.

The Taliban will not agree to an extension of the evacuation mission from Afghanistan, and is “warning of consequences” if it is prolonged.
The move would mean “extending occupation” and that is “a red line”, Suhail Shaheen, a member of the Taliban delegation in Doha, the capital of Qatar, said on Monday.

United States President Joe Biden said on Sunday that the “hard and painful” airlift of Americans and tens of thousands of others from Afghanistan’s capital is accelerating, but he would not rule out extending it beyond the August 31 deadline he set before the Taliban’s swift takeover.

The airport has been the scene of chaos since the Taliban seized the Afghan capital on August 15 as US and international forces try to evacuate citizens and vulnerable Afghans. A NATO official has said that at least 20 people have died in and around the airport in the past week.

An Afghan security guard has been killed in a firefight between unknown gunmen and Afghan forces at the north gate of Kabul airport, the German military said, as thousands thronged the airport, seeking to flee Taliban rule.

Three more people were injured in the gun battle on Monday morning that has also involved German and US forces, the German military said on Twitter.

Taliban warns of ‘consequences’ if US delays withdrawal

US president to decide on extension of August 31 withdrawal deadline as Taliban warns against ‘extending occupation’.

www.aljazeera.com

Posturing on the Talibans' part. The consequences for them will be much greater if they open fire on U.S. troops or aircraft.

gladiator, at my signal,unleash hell - Search Videos

www.bing.com

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I think a gunfight is upcoming. Damn this is perilous.

What is China saying and what is Russia saying?

"is best show of this season in this series ever! Want some more popcorn Ivan?"

 

[MilEME09]

"is best show of this season in this series ever! Want some more popcorn Ivan?"

More like stay distracted while we take Taiwan

 

[Altair]

Looks like that's a firm 'best before date':

Taliban warns of ‘consequences’ if US delays withdrawal​

Evacuations of citizens and vulnerable Afghans beyond the August 31 deadline would be ‘extending occupation’, the Taliban says.

The Taliban will not agree to an extension of the evacuation mission from Afghanistan, and is “warning of consequences” if it is prolonged.
The move would mean “extending occupation” and that is “a red line”, Suhail Shaheen, a member of the Taliban delegation in Doha, the capital of Qatar, said on Monday.

United States President Joe Biden said on Sunday that the “hard and painful” airlift of Americans and tens of thousands of others from Afghanistan’s capital is accelerating, but he would not rule out extending it beyond the August 31 deadline he set before the Taliban’s swift takeover.

The airport has been the scene of chaos since the Taliban seized the Afghan capital on August 15 as US and international forces try to evacuate citizens and vulnerable Afghans. A NATO official has said that at least 20 people have died in and around the airport in the past week.

An Afghan security guard has been killed in a firefight between unknown gunmen and Afghan forces at the north gate of Kabul airport, the German military said, as thousands thronged the airport, seeking to flee Taliban rule.

Three more people were injured in the gun battle on Monday morning that has also involved German and US forces, the German military said on Twitter.

Taliban warns of ‘consequences’ if US delays withdrawal

US president to decide on extension of August 31 withdrawal deadline as Taliban warns against ‘extending occupation’.

www.aljazeera.com

Dear God, what I wouldn't give for Europe and Canada to nut up and stay if the USA pulls out.

Pipe dream though.