US, NATO Outta Afghanistan 2021

[CBH99]

We're watching airport videos and assuming the entire country is in a panic to leave. There are also videos of Taliban parades with kids swarming vehicles and throwing rocks at images of politicians. I'm willing to bet there is a sizable portion of the Afghan population that is happy right now.

The only reason I mention this is that the narrative seems to be that the Taliban are taking over the Afghan people. Remember, the Taliban are the Afghan people, or at least a segment of them. In civil wars, there are winners, and there are losers. What we are witnessing is the sad end of scores being settled when a foreign proxy government falls.

True. The Taliban are Afghans, and in several parts of the country during the peak of ‘our’ conflict there, they were the more credible and reliable choice if the alternative was ANA or ANP.

They also took care of their own, and their families, better than the ANA or ANP did. Some areas were extremely pro Taliban as the Taliban in that area (often operating with individuals who came from those villages) treated the locals decently fair.

I believe the fear is that the Taliban regime overall won’t be the reasonable, somewhat progressive groups commanded by local commanders in some areas. It will be a swift return to how things used to be, and a long list of individuals to torture & murder, along with their families.

The masses at the airport show us just how scared people in Kabul are. In some regions or villages away from the major centres, perhaps many of them feel a breath of relief that ‘the war is over’. Business will continue more or less like usual.

But the masses storming the airfield are a good visual representation of how the locals of Kabul are feeling. And if the Taliban intends to root their power there, the locals will either have to get on board, shut their mouths, or be lashed, tortured, or killed into compliance. Ugly situation.

 

[Kirkhill]

I seem to recall that there is an inherent North-South divide in Afghanistan and that the Taliban strength was among the Pashtun of the South. The Northerners, like Doshtum, were the driving force in both opposing the Russians and welcoming the Americans. The Pashtun were the other side and the Taliban were their champions.

The problem for the North, surely, is that it is a less homogeneous tribal confederacy than the South.

When we see "Afghans" trying to get out of Kabul, which, as I understand it, is located at the southern edge of northern territory, isn't it likely that it is primarily Northerners we are seeing? Northerners who have had a decent run while the West footed the bill but made few friends among an ancient enemy that didn't want to become friends. I seem to recall that it was easier to recruit Northerners to serve in the ANA and ANP than Southerners and that it was often the Northerners that served with the US and its allies in the South. The South tended to see both the Westerners and the Northerners as invaders.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... While past experience has shown a willingness by Chinese companies to engage with the Taliban, they are certainly not Beijing's preferred choice. The assurances that Chinese investors would need to proceed further will likely take some time to materialize ...

Still, one keeps one's options open, right? (link is to an archive site, showing a recent - 28 July - CHN Foreign Ministry news release)

On July 28, 2021, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with the visiting delegation led by head of the Afghan Taliban Political Commission Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar in Tianjin. The heads of the Afghan Taliban's religious council and publicity committee were also on the delegation.

(...)

Wang Yi pointed out that the Afghan Taliban is an important military and political force in Afghanistan and is expected to play an important role in the country's peace, reconciliation and reconstruction process. We hope that the Afghan Taliban will put the interests of the country and nation first, hold high the banner of peace talks, set the goal of peace, build a positive image and pursue an inclusive policy. All factions and ethnic groups in Afghanistan should unite as one, truly implement the "Afghan-led and Afghan-owned" principle, push for early substantive results in the peace and reconciliation process, and independently establish a broad and inclusive political structure that suits Afghanistan's national realities ...

Wang Yi stressed that the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) is an international terrorist organization designated by the UN Security Council that poses a direct threat to China's national security and territorial integrity. Combating the ETIM is a common responsibility for the international community. We hope the Afghan Taliban will make a clean break with all terrorist organizations including the ETIM and resolutely and effectively combat them to remove obstacles, play a positive role and create enabling conditions for security, stability, development and cooperation in the region.

Baradar expressed appreciation for the opportunity to visit China. He said China has always been a reliable friend of the Afghan people and commended China's just and positive role in Afghanistan's peace and reconciliation process. The Afghan Taliban has the utmost sincerity to work toward and realize peace. It stands ready to work with other parties to establish a political framework in Afghanistan that is broadly-based, inclusive and accepted by the entire Afghan people and to protect human rights, especially the rights of women and children. The Afghan Taliban will never allow any force to use the Afghan territory to engage in acts detrimental to China ...

 

[CBH99]

China supporting the Taliban regime with money, weapons, vehicles, business opportunities, and investment in critical infrastructure, and possibly a “Screw Off Zone” the way the Russians did in both Libya and Syria.

In return for ‘keep the peace, keep westerners away, and allow Chinese companies access to the trillions of dollars worth of natural resources waiting to be developed.’

China didn’t miss a beat in recognizing them as a legitimate government, and meeting delegations as if they were meeting with any other country. But Ofcourse why would they miss a beat…very solid ‘hints’ that China has been involved with the Taliban for YEARS now.

Even if they weren’t, this is a truly golden opportunity for China. And they didn’t dither in seizing it.


Goes from bad, to worse, to REALLY BAD…to “well that was almost predictable.”


EDIT - construction and investment will go a lot smoother with the Taliban supporting it, rather than trying to blow it up.

 

[FJAG]

Pretty much on point as to where the finger pointing should go:

Afghanistan Is Your Fault

The American public now has what it wanted.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[mariomike]

My thoughts are with the families.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

China supporting the Taliban regime with money, weapons, vehicles, business opportunities, and investment in critical infrastructure, and possibly a “Screw Off Zone” the way the Russians did in both Libya and Syria.

In return for ‘keep the peace, keep westerners away, and allow Chinese companies access to the trillions of dollars worth of natural resources waiting to be developed.’

China didn’t miss a beat in recognizing them as a legitimate government, and meeting delegations as if they were meeting with any other country. But Ofcourse why would they miss a beat…very solid ‘hints’ that China has been involved with the Taliban for YEARS now.

Even if they weren’t, this is a truly golden opportunity for China. And they didn’t dither in seizing it.


Goes from bad, to worse, to REALLY BAD…to “well that was almost predictable.”


EDIT - construction and investment will go a lot smoother with the Taliban supporting it, rather than trying to blow it up.

We will see neither the Taliban or Chinese are known for playing well with others

 

[MilEME09]

PMO, Global Affairs holding off deploying CAF Kabul evacuation team: Sources

Civilians are being left to die in Kabul as politicians in Ottawa refuse to give the green light to a ready-to-go evacuation plan

calgarysun.com

Oh boy, perfect for an election campaign...

 

[Remius]

This is going to define Biden’s presidency. I think it’s going to cost him re election. Complete underestimation of the Taliban is understandable if your intelligence folks give you bad info. But being awol for several days and giving lame reasoning and having his words come back to haunt him. All bad.

 

[FJAG]

This is going to define Biden’s presidency. I think it’s going to cost him re election. Complete underestimation of the Taliban is understandable if your intelligence folks give you bad info. But being awol for several days and giving lame reasoning and having his words come back to haunt him. All bad.

So let's see - he sent 6,000 troops there to do the evac; there are USAF planes all over the sky doing the evac; and basically the Afghan government has run away. So what is it exactly were you looking for Biden to do?

I don't doubt that all the Republicans who were wanting out of Afghanistan for years and who rallied behind Trump when he signed that cockamamie "peace agreement" with the Taliban in February will want this to be Biden's defining moment. But come on, now. What's your solution? How should Biden roll back the last two decades and fix the situation over the weekend?

 

[Remius]

So let's see - he sent 6,000 troops there to do the evac; there are USAF planes all over the sky doing the evac; and basically the Afghan government has run away. So what is it exactly were you looking for Biden to do?

I don't doubt that all the Republicans who were wanting out of Afghanistan for years and who rallied behind Trump when he signed that cockamamie "peace agreement" with the Taliban in February will want this to be Biden's defining moment. But come on, now. What's your solution? How should Biden roll back the last two decades and fix the situation over the weekend?

You didn’t read what I wrote. My criticism is him looking bad after making statements and being absent during a crisis.

here is what he said a month ago.

Biden’s rosy statements on Afghanistan, Covid have come back to haunt him

First Read is your briefing from "Meet the Press" and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter.

www.nbcnews.com

He waited 3 days before cutting his vacation short?

His words are coming back to haunt him now. That’s on him. His administration look completely disorganized trying to manage this.

the last three administrations share the blame for all of this sure but he’s the guy in charge right now. And he doesn't look very good right now. And it isn’t just republicans and the right wing media saying that.

 

[dimsum]

This is going to define Biden’s presidency. I think it’s going to cost him re election. Complete underestimation of the Taliban is understandable if your intelligence folks give you bad info. But being awol for several days and giving lame reasoning and having his words come back to haunt him. All bad.

It's been what, 7 months into his presidency? I'm sure something in the next 3.5 years will overtake this.

Also, as FJAG said, WTF did you expect Biden to do once Trump signed the agreement?

 

[Remius]

It's been what, 7 months into his presidency? I'm sure something in the next 3.5 years will overtake this.

Also, as FJAG said, WTF did you expect Biden to do once Trump signed the agreement?

None of that excuses him being MIA for 3 days. Nor does it change the fact that his words a month ago are being used against him. We’ll see how the mid terms go.

it has nothing to do with what he inherited. I get that. But does he look good right now? Even CNN is all over his performance during this mess. I watched his people today at the presser and they all, looked like they were tap dancing.

I guess time will tell.

 

[Altair]

The American public backed the pullout, something like 70 percent of Americans wanted out.

I'm not sure they wanted out looking like Saigon 1975, so I'm sure that level of supports drops a bit, but the sentiment behind leaving is still solid.

And bipartisan, the Republicans under Trump wanted out as well.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Also, as FJAG said, WTF did you expect Biden to do once Trump signed the agreement?

Fill the "evacuation" planes with paratroopers and tweet "surprise c**kbags" at H-hour.

 

[Kilted]

The American public backed the pullout, something like 70 percent of Americans wanted out.

I'm not sure they wanted out looking like Saigon 1975, so I'm sure that level of supports drops a bit, but the sentiment behind leaving is still solid.

And bipartisan, the Republicans under Trump wanted out as well.

I don't think that any of them expected Afghanistan to fall faster than France did in WWII.

 

[Remius]

The American public backed the pullout, something like 70 percent of Americans wanted out.

I'm not sure they wanted out looking like Saigon 1975, so I'm sure that level of supports drops a bit, but the sentiment behind leaving is still solid.

And bipartisan, the Republicans under Trump wanted out as well.

Yes it goes back to Obama, but remember when Bush said mission accomplished? What Biden said a month ago in contrast to what is happening now is going to be the same thing.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Fill the "evacuation" planes with paratroopers and tweet "surprise c**kbags" at H-hour.

My hand is up over here...

 

[Altair]

I don't think that any of them expected Afghanistan to fall faster than France did in WWII.

Very true.

This will go down as one of the greatest Intel failures in modern history.

If Biden knew this was coming I doubt he would have waited until Kabul was surrounded to start evacuating. This goes for all western leaders currently scrambling to get people out.

 

[Altair]

Yes it goes back to Obama, but remember when Bush said mission accomplished? What Biden said a month ago in contrast to what is happening now is going to be the same thing.

If there is anything in Bidens favor it's that this is happening now. Lots of time for things to happen between now and next election.

Also, he's old. Just saying.