I am giving you the answer he gave me, and it was the answer to my question of what my odds were of getting an offer. Specifically I detailed that I was aware the positions were very competitive, and was curious to know what the standings were, and he obliged. I found my interviewer to be very courteous, and have no reason to doubt his knowledge over the personnel selection field based on speculations from others.
I am aware people can be misinformed, and if that is the case then I will apologize. Certainly any number of factors could have been unaccounted for when he provided that answer, but I am not in a position to say what was and was not considered. I'm a logical person, and will bow down in the face of evidence. However, at this time, I have no qualms against standing by what I was told.
It is completely possible to know the number of applicants, as the competition closed for submissions in January (31st), and my interview was in early/mid February. The likelihood of there being more applicant files after the deadline, is significantly less than the odds of files currently submitted being written off because of missing qualifications/improper submissions.