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U.S. 2012 Election

On Nov 6 Who Will Win President Obama or Mitt Romney ?

  • President Obama

    Votes: 39 61.9%
  • Mitt Romney

    Votes: 24 38.1%

  • Total voters
    63
  • Poll closed .
recceguy said:
What Redeye can do is learn to rebutt without the invictive venom of calling another's post stupid and all the other insults to a person's thoughts, opinions and styles.

We don't care whether he agrees or not, it's not an excuse to throw civility out the door.

He's fooling no one by attacking the content and not the poster personaly, which he is doing. Calling the poster's view stupid is calling the poster stupid.

Redeye is on the ramp for his constant abuse, in this regard. He wants to push and find that edge while not crossing it. He may get a suprise and find he's closer than he thinks.

When he falls off, it'll be non negotiable. He won't be back.

Milnet.ca Staff

With due respect, I said nothing about the poster, but what he posted, which was... Well, I can't describe it. I accept his right to a different point of view, but that doesn't mean that when they post stuff that is outrageous it can't be answered. Haletown, if I offended you, I apologize, it was the ideas you posted where what I had to respond to.
 
Redeye said:
With due respect, I said nothing about the poster, but what he posted, which was... Well, I can't describe it. I accept his right to a different point of view, but that doesn't mean that when they post stuff that is outrageous it can't be answered. Haletown, if I offended you, I apologize, it was the ideas you posted where what I had to respond to.

Answer the outrageous.

Keep your judgments and comments of someone else's opinions to yourself.

Move on. This chapter is closed.

2012 election please.

Milnet.ca Staff
 
Interesting site . . .

http://rove.com/election

OK it is Rove so the dialogue reflects his politics.

But the data is the data and the resulting map is the map.

Looks like it is all in the swing states. 
 
I have noticed a lot of US TV advertising for back to school stuff and that tells me people are moving their thinking past summer and things of summer to the Fall.

Then the new Gallup data comes out

http://www.gallup.com/poll/156389/Thirteen-States-Give-Obama-Majority-Approval.aspx?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=gallupnews&utm_campaign=syndication

And it shows a slipping Obama.

Could this be the beginning of the end for Obama?  He seems to have very little room to grow and as the elections grows closer, people focus more closely on important things, like their economic future, rather than "cool" stuff or how much they like somebody.

My gut feeling is he will be routed in November.  He'll hold his core vote, but his policies have failed on so many levels and so many Americans are hurting or know people who are hurting.

Despite what I sense is an honest desire in the large majority of Americans for the first black POTUS to do well, they will not vote to give him four more years to continue his economic, fiscal, industrial, social and foreign policies because Americans see so much failure in  his first term.

I still think it will be an exceptionally nasty campaign.



 
A look at how Team Obama intends to campaign by the WSJ. The idea of "shrinking the electorate" is a bit counterintuative considering the amount of time, effort and energy spent over the last many election cycles in developing and refining "GOTV" strategies and tactics, but then again, if the Administration is attempting to define themselves now (as the article suggests) and there are so few accomplishments to point to (especially with the economy) then attempting to turn off potential voters and keeping them at home may be the best possible COA for them:

http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444226904577560941016294050.html

Jenkins: Is Obama Beating Himself?
For some reason President Obama has us thinking of Marissa Mayer, Bill Ackman and Mark Zuckerberg.

"You didn't build that," Mr. Obama explained to the nation's entrepreneurs, and has been explaining ever since. He only meant to say we need government as well as private initiative, and who could disagree? This argument is anodyne, dispositive of nothing that is in dispute.

Of course, it also comes as a defense of policies that all run in one direction: bigger government, higher taxes. It comes against the background of a re-election campaign whose calculated aim is to portray a respected business leader as a criminal.

Ironically, it came in the same week his party in Congress was admitting paralysis to do anything for economic growth and demanding adventurous new actions from Ben Bernanke to reawaken the risk appetites of America's entrepreneurs and consumers.

We're a lucky country, and not just because we have a treasure like Mr. Obama. Behavioral economics tells us that people are more risk averse than they should be. In France, the best and brightest aspire to sinecures in government-controlled corporations. Even with their many complaints about the U.S., foreign leaders are constantly telling us they envy America's entrepreneurial prowess.

Let's not overstate things, but in other nations people would think Ms. Mayer was crazy to leave a prestigious and lucrative job at Google for the unappealing task of trying to succeed at Yahoo where so many have failed.

Bill Ackman, instead of mau-mauing Procter & Gamble from outside as an activist investor, would be golfing with the leadership of Procter & Gamble.

Facebook wouldn't be Facebook. It would be Minitel—the pioneering French online service that was just shut down last month after 30 years.

Of course, it's healthy not to be overawed by the successes of others, and to remember the American institutions and policies that let entrepreneurship thrive. But if Mr. Obama lost the point in the soundbite that so bedevils his campaign, it's because his campaign doesn't have a point.

Mr. Obama himself chose to lash his re-election bid to his tax hike for the rich. His tax hike isn't valuable to him because of the revenue it would raise (which isn't much). It isn't valuable to him because it somehow fits into his green-eyeshade management of the budget (neither he nor his party in Congress have shown much interest in managing the fisc).

His tax hike is only valuable to him because it nominates a villain for the campaign season—the greedy, undeserving, unpatriotic rich. It's valuable because it affords a rhetorical escape route when the subject of unsustainable spending comes up. He can talk about making the rich pay their "fair share," not about the chasm that would persist between spending and revenues, with or without his score-settling tax hike.

Hostility to the rich is a free-floating theme, one the Krugmanites tie themselves in knots trying to reconcile with their own policy agenda. After all, the Keynesian prescription for today's ills certainly isn't higher taxes. Just the opposite: It's bigger deficits in pursuit of stimulus.

Team Obama can also have no illusion about the purpose of its campaign strategy. It doesn't kid itself that its attacks on Mitt Romney and Bain Capital will cause voters to flock to Obama. If anything, Mr. Obama knows his tactics cost him donor and voter enthusiasm on his own side.

The goal is to drive up Romney negatives. The payoff the campaign hopes for is that voters who would never vote for Mr. Obama will prefer to stay home rather than vote for that rich so-and-so Romney. The White House strategy is a "shrink-the-electorate" strategy. Team Obama will play the Mormon card at some point too. Count on it.

In the real world outside of the campaign, many Democrats like business and "the rich"—because they generate the money Democrats want to spend. House Democrats especially are rooted in communities back home where local business owners and phlegmatic taxpayers neither "get" Mr. Obama nor feel much warmth toward him. One wonders how these Democrats are enjoying the ride so far.

With "you didn't build that" going viral, Team Obama at least senses trouble and reportedly is looking for a positive message. But what message? Stay the course? What course? For and against gay marriage? For and against fossil fuels? More Solyndras? More trillion-dollar deficits? A recovery more halting and uncertain the longer Mr. Obama presides over it?

Mitt Romney has been getting a lot of advice: Don't just stand there, do something (preferably not utter a gaffe). But maybe Mr. Romney is being shrewd. Maybe, given his own less-than-scintillating public-relations skills, just standing there is the right strategy as Mr. Obama flails after a theme for his presidency all the way to Election Day. Maybe the cool, sure-footed Mr. Obama is capable of beating himself after all. Could it be that in selecting Mr. Romney, with his very particular kind of baggage, Republicans picked exactly the candidate best suited to bring out the worst in our president?
 
The problem for Romney is that he has lots of negatives; Obama's team doesn't need to invent them. His campaign, to date, has been decidedly less than stellar, but there's still time - the really important time: Sep and Oct.

The problem for Obama is the economy; it's 'his,' now, and he needs it to turn around, dramatically, in Sep and Oct; the odds of that happening are slim, even if Ben Bernanke, apolitically, rides to the rescue with QE3. The Federal Open Market Committee, in Jun 12, expected that "economic growth [will] remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up very gradually,” and it anticipated "that the unemployment rate will decline only slowly toward levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook.” That's not what Obama needs and while QE3 might steady the markets and lessen the impact of the ongoing Eurozone fiasco it is unlikely to do what Obama needs done ...
 
If it comes down to a popularity contest, Obama takes it in a walk.  He's a cool dude, he talks & walks just right, he hangs with the Hollywood, TV & sports celebs and  has a dazzling smile.  He could have been a big deal in Hollywood.

If the election was held in "regular times" Obama's cool would win over Romney's odd.  When people are fat & happy, when they are not worried about feeding their families or the debt they are leaving their children, then "cool" wins.

But the times are far from fat & happy, voters are very worried and out of self interest, people will likely vote for competence over cool.  Romney has competence in spades.


This election will be for the soul of America and the two visions will offer marked policy choices for America to consider, all based on the size and role of government in American's lives.





 
Romney has one big challenge in addressing folks outside the 1%: He's never spoken to the question of why he has moved money offshore, to a variety nations with less than transparent banking laws.  Coupled with his refusal to release his taxes for more than the past two years (where his father set a precedent) it gives an impression, justified or not, that something is being hidden.

That impression will harm him with people whose votes he needs to win.  Even the returns he released, showing a marginal rate around 15%, will not win over many, if they compare the rate they pay to what Romney paid.

 
Considering he is virtually tied with Obama, his appeal is already well outside the 1% you say is his vote.

The democrats will make a big issue out of this.  No doubt.  They have  already started.  It will certainly work with people who are already voting for Obama, it may backfire with a lot of other Americans who respect personal privacy.

If I was Romney, I would wait until the debate, goad Obama a bit and then when he demands Romney  release his returns, demand that Obama release his school records. And his medical records. 

Maybe he hasn't quit smoking after all  :o

 
tomahawk6 said:
You seem unhappy.Complain about the US on the web or move on to someplace you would be comfortable with. You are free to move or free to complain.Thats the nice thing about living in Canada or the US. I did notice that Putin has been rather heavy handed with his critics.

You lost me. But as Recceguy says, let's just move on.
 
Just because they are in a dead heat doesn't necessarily mean his message has gotten across outside the core base, and/or the 1%.

Polls, for whatever they are worth, have been swinging wildly back and forth, depending on who is doing the polling, what the questions asked are, and the breakdown of the people polled.

For example, as people pointed out earlier, Obama would win hands down if it was decided on who is more likeable. A recent poll released shows that Romney is just not giving people a warm fuzzy feeling. And the breakdown in swing states is worse than the general population.

And it seems to be due to the poor work by his campaign to seize the high ground and define their man, and let people get to know him, and feel like he understand and cares about their issues. Right from the start, the Obama camp has done everything to define Mitt Romney, and it seems to be working.
 
This is a pocket book election. The voter can be asked if he is better off today then he was 4 years ago. I suspect that most people feel that they were better off then. If enough people feel that way the President will have plenty of time for his golf game.
 
More grist for the culture determines economic success comment by Romney. (respecting Recceguy's directive - without the Israel / Palestine debate)

You would think that someone with Romney's background would believe that economic policies drove national prosperity. It is almost as if he's buying into their out-of-context quote from Obama "You didn't build that".

Capitalism, not culture, drives economies

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fareed-zakaria-capitalism-not-culture-drives-economies/2012/08/01/gJQAKtH9PX_story.html

Mitt Romney has explained that his comments abroad were simply truth-telling. “I tend to tell people what I actually believe,” he said. With regard to one much-debated comment — on the cultural differences between Israelis and Palestinians — many agree with him. The Wall Street Journal editorial page and columnists including Marc A. Thiessen and John Podhoretz all applauded. Podhoretz wrote: “Anyone who publicizes his remark is helping Romney win the election.”

“Culture makes all the difference,” Romney said at a fundraiser in Israel, comparing the country’s economic vitality to Palestinian poverty. Certainly there is a pedigree for this idea. Romney cited David Landes, an economics historian. He could have cited Max Weber, the great German scholar who first made this claim 100 years ago in his book “The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism,” which argued that Protestant values were the most important fuel for economic progress.

The problem is that Weber singled out two cultures as being particularly prone to poverty and stagnation, those of China and Japan. But these have been the world’s fastest-growing large economies over the past five decades. Over the past two decades, the other powerhouse has been India, which was also described for years as having a culture incompatible with economic success — hence the phrase “the Hindu rate of growth,” to describe the country’s once-moribund state.

China was stagnant for centuries and then suddenly and seemingly miraculously, in the 1980s, began to industrialize three times faster than the West. What changed was not China’s culture, which presumably was the same in the 1970s as it was in the 1980s. What changed, starting in 1979, were China’s economic policies.

The same is true for Japan and India. Had Romney spent more time reading Milton Friedman, he would have realized that historically the key driver for economic growth has been the adoption of capitalism and its related institutions and policies across diverse cultures.

The link between economic policies and performance can be seen even in the country on which Romney was lavishing praise. Israel had many admirable traits in its early decades, but no one would have called it an economic miracle. Its economy was highly statist. Things changed in the 1990s with market-oriented reforms — initiated by Benyamin Netanyahu — and sound monetary policies. As a result, Israel’s economy grew much faster than it had in the 1980s. The miracle Romney was praising had to do with new policies rather than deep culture.

Ironically, the argument that culture is central to a country’s success has been used most frequently by Asian strongmen to argue that their countries need not adopt Western-style democracy. Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew has made this case passionately for decades. It is an odd claim, because Singapore’s own success would seem to contradict it. It is not so different from neighboring Malaysia. The crucial difference is that Singapore had extremely good leadership that pursued good economic policies with relentless discipline.

Despite all this evidence, most people still believe that two cultures in particular, African and Islamic, inhibit economic development. But the two countries that will next achieve a gross domestic product of $1 trillion are both Muslim democracies — Turkey and Indonesia. Of the 10 fastest-growing economies in the world today, seven are African. The world is changing, and holding on to fixed views of culture means you will miss its changing dynamics.

When societies or people succeed, we search in their cultures for seeds of success. Culture being a large grab bag, you can usually find what you want. We observe the success of Jewish, Lebanese, Chinese and Indian people in various societies and attribute it to culture. But it may really stem from the traits of diaspora populations — small groups of entrepreneurial immigrants forced to live by their wits in alien cultures. Interestingly, Palestinians have a reputation around the Middle East for being savvy merchants and traders and have been successful in the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

Culture is important. It is the shared historical experience of people that is reflected in institutions and practices. But culture changes. German culture in 1935 was different from 1955. Europe was once a hotbed of violent nationalism; today it is postmodern and almost pacifist. The United States was once an isolationist, agrarian republic with a deep suspicion of a standing army. Today it has half of the world’s military power.

Daniel Patrick Moynihan once observed: “The central conservative truth is that it is culture, not politics, that determines the success of a society. The central liberal truth is that politics can change culture and save it from itself.” That remains the wisest statement made about this complicated problem, probably too wise to ever be uttered in an American political campaign.
 
More Bat Doody Insanity from the extreme right conspiracy wing. Break out your tin foil hats and raise a glass in salute!

TN Rep. Kelly Keisling forwards Obama fake assassination rumor

http://blogs.tennessean.com/politics/2012/state-rep-kelly-keisling-forwards-obama-october-surprise-rumor-ignites-firestorm/

State Rep. Kelly Keisling, a first-term lawmaker from Byrdstown, passed along a conspiracy theory email to constituents this week and rapidly reaped the sort of political firestorm that only the Internet can deliver.

Through an aide using his email account at the state legislature, Keisling shared an online article that alleges President Barack Obama is planning to fake his assassination as part of a plan to impose martial law. Sketchy theories like this abound in the days before a presidential election, but Keisling apparently took it seriously enough to sound the alarm.

“God help us, if ANYONE stoops to this level!” reads a portion of the message that appeared to be written by someone other than Keisling but presumably expressed a sentiment he shared. “As I was reading this article I kept thinking that the more we are aware that something like this is remotely possible, the better off we are to recognize it and fend it off…”

A recipient took umbrage with the message and sent it along to the Huffington Post, which wrote about it Tuesday. This morning the story was being distributed widely and it was, of course, the top news item around about Kelly Keisling.

(Sidenote: His official legislative website is one of the few with an easy-to-use form to receive his newsletter. His subscribers are sure to shoot through the roof.)

Keisling quickly owned up to the message and, through a GOP spokesman, expressed regret for the forward.

“Earlier this week, I forwarded an email from my legislative office that should not have been sent out. The message was inappropriate for distribution. I regret the error and pledge to be more cautious regarding the information distributed from my office in the future.”

Read the complete text of the email below:

Representative Keisling would like to share this information with you.



Holt Whitt

Legislative Assistant, Rep. Kelly Keisling

108 War Memorial Building

Nashville, TN 37243

Telephone: (615) 741-6852

Fax: (615) 253-0234

holt.whitt@capitol.tn.gov



PLEASE SCROLL DOWN.

Something to think and PRAY about. Interesting times…

Blessings,

Ruby



—–



..

Importance: High

God help us, if ANYONE stoops to this level!  As I was reading this article I kept thinking that the more we are aware that something like this is remotely possible, the better off we are to recognize it and fend it off…..then the author addresses my very thoughts!  The last paragraph in blue summarizes the reason we should pass this one around.

For some reason, the word “treason” comes to mind if this is attempted!

An Obama rumor that must never become reality!

By Joe Angione

A good journalist is usually taught not to print rumors or at least never to present them as the truth. What I’m going to report here is only a rumor that presently can’t be confirmed. But it is of such magnitude that it must be made known if only to prepare America for a possible terrible eventuality. And while it has not been confirmed, neither can it authoritatively and convincingly be denied, certainly not in a United States where our Constitutional rights are under constant attack.

This rumor involves an agent of the Department of Homeland Security who allegedly informed a reporter at the Canada Free Press of a “false flag” or faked event to be initiated by Obama administration operatives in the hope of preventing the November presidential elections.

Canada Free Press (CFP) is an independent, conservative, electronic daily newspaper, updated several times a day. It boasts more than 100 writers and columnists who file stories regularly to the newspaper from all corners of the globe.  According to the newspaper’s coverage of this DHS “whistleblower,” the event would be a staged assassination attempt on the life of President Obama that would be blamed on “white supremacists” and subsequently used to enrage black and Hispanic communities driving them to rioting all across the nation.

The faked assassination, says the CFP report, would be carried out through the assistance of DHS agents, and “other colluders” taking their orders from the White House. The objective would be to stir up enough racial unrest to justify the imposition of martial law in major urban cities, including erecting DHS checkpoints, restricting travel, and delaying (possibly indefinitely) the November 2012 elections.

Doug Hagmann, reporting in the May 8, 2012, edition of the Canada Free Press wrote that his informant works in “the upper-echelon of DHS,” which he described as “effectively under the control of Barack Hussein Obama.”

Hagmann’s contact said: “The DHS is actively preparing for massive social unrest inside the United States. He then corrected himself, stating that ‘a civil war’ is the more appropriate term. Certain elements of the government are not only expecting and preparing for it, they are actually facilitating it.”

The DHS whistleblower mentioned a recent meeting at the Department of Homel and Security where plans were discussed to use pawns to simulate the rioting seen in the Arab Spring countries that would bring on a “controlled chaos” for the benefit of the Obama administration.

“Envisioned by these conspirators are riots starting in urban areas such as New York, followed by a disruption of business and commerce,” the DHS source added. “They want to restrict travel, if not through high energy prices, then by checkpoints and curfews mandated by the rioting and unrest…The whole purpose is to keep Obama in office for another term, no matter how unpopular he is, as he is not finished changing our country from a Constitutional Republic.”

This certainly isn’t the first rumor to surface about Mr. Obama’s intention to subvert the U.S. Constitution, by manipulating economic, racial and social issues that would polarize Americans and bring on enormous conflict, but the full measure of this contrived event, if true, involves total suspension of our democratic rights, and repression on a scale never thought possible in the America we’ve known and cherished all our lives.

It’s a rumor that bears watching…and is worth spreading because the more people who know about it–and understand the high level of deceit and treachery that confronts us daily in Washington –the less likely it is for the rumor to become a reality.  The lesson here is that if people are aware of the possibility, even remote, of some great calamity befalling them, they’re on guard…they’re prepared…their defenses are up, and those who would commit evil, will back down fearing a confrontation they can’t win.

The more we talk about the potential for a staged, bogus presidential assassination that would trigger massive civil unrest and possible martial law, the stronger is our defense against it actually occurring. The nation will be watching. Patriots everywhere will be on alert. The Obama administration will be under scrutiny more intensely than ever before. It doesn’t have the guts to take on millions of Americans when we’re ready for anything.

Sometimes rumors are a good thing.

Conservatively,

JA

Two thoughts come to mind.

1) You really can't make this stuff, although you can give it the old college try, and

2) Blame Canada!
 
cupper said:
Polls, for whatever they are worth, have been swinging wildly back and forth, depending on who is doing the polling, what the questions asked are, and the breakdown of the people polled.

And to further my point,

Swing state poll: Romney still struggling to convince voters he cares

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/swing-state-poll-romney-still-struggling-to-convince-voters-he-cares/2012/08/01/gJQAjKoAPX_story.html

Mitt Romney started this campaign with a problem: an image as a wealthy elitist, out of touch with middle-class life.

New polls out Wednesday show that — even now, after months of campaigning and an expensive effort to introduce himself to voters — Romney still hasn’t overcome that first impression.

In the key swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, voters were asked the question, “Would you say that Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?”

In all three, more people answered “not.”

A new poll by CBS News, the New York Times, and Quinnipiac University found that 54 percent of likely voters in Pennsylvania, 55 percent in Ohio, and 49 percent in Florida said Romney did not care about their problems.

A smaller contingent said Romney did understand them: 39 percent in Pennsylvania, 38 in Ohio, and 42 percent in Florida.

President Obama fared better: In all three states, at least 55 percent said the president did understand their needs and problems.

Other statistics also looked worrisome for Romney. In Pennsylvania, voters with an unfavorable view of Romney outnumbered those with a favorable view by eight percentage points. In the other two states, about as many voters said they held an unfavorable view of him as said they held a favorable one.

“For Obama, favorable views outnumbered unfavorable ones in all three.”

The polls must be taken with this caveat: In all three states, significantly more Democrats than Republicans were surveyed, which could affect the results. In Florida, for example, Democrats responding to the poll outnumbered Republicans by nine percentage points, even though exit polls there in 2008 showed just a three percentage point Democratic advantage and exit polls in 2010 were dead even on party identification.

In the other two states, the party breakdown in the poll leans much more toward 2008 — a very good Democratic year — than 2010, which was a good GOP year.

Still, the polls showed Obama holding a lead over Romney in these three states, where voters will be inundated with political ads and candidate visits in the coming months. And they outlined the daunting political task that Romney — just returned from a rocky overseas trip — now faces at home.


Many voters seem to have absorbed Romney’s message that he knows the business world better than Obama: In the three states, voters were almost evenly split about which candidate would handle the economy best.

They also seem to agree with Romney that the U.S. economy is not improving as hoped. In the three states, less than 30 percent of voters said the nation’s economy was getting better.

And, the polls show that Obama is struggling to convince even his own supporters that his policies will help their personal financial situation. Among his base of likely Democratic voters, fewer than half in Pennsylvania and Florida think Obama’s policies will help. In Ohio, it’s a little higher, 53 percent of likely Democratic voters.

But voters do not seem to be warming to Romney personally, despite the candidate’s efforts to introduce himself as a straight-arrow dad who loves a good joke.

Now, Romney seems to be stepping up his efforts. In a new ad, he is shown driving an SUV, talking to voters like they’re a companion in the passenger seat.

“I know what it’s like to hire people and to wonder whether you’re going to be able to make ends meet down the road,” the candidate says.
 
Although this might be put in "Let them fail", it is appropriate here since it bound so closely to the Obama election campaign. Looking at the numbers, this is a horrifying failure, and I can certainly see this being raised as an issue if the Obama campaign continues with the 1% and Bain capital stuff. Real numbers are much harder to evade, and whle the Legacy media won't ask the hard questions, these numbers are getting into circulation through the power of the Internet and blogosphere. Voters are taking notice (and as T6 reminded us, this is a pocketbook election):

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/07/31/What-GM-Turnaround-GM-Obama-Admin-Have-Over-Promised-and-Under-Delivered

OBAMA TOUTS GM AS SUCCESS WHILE MARKET SHARE, STOCK PRICE DECLINE

by TONY LEE  31 Jul 2012 75 POST A COMMENT

Obama and his campaign have gone all-in in running on what they have spun as the successful turnaround of General Motors (GM), which received nearly $50 billion in taxpayer bailout money.

The Obama campaign wants to use GM to prove not only Obama’s managerial skills and instincts but to contrast Obama with Romney, whose past successes in the private sector give him a considerable advantage over Obama when it comes to economic issues.

Since Romney did not support the GM bailout, Obama’s team is betting on GM to neutralize the advantage Romney has over Obama on the economy.
For this reason, Obama’s “Betting on America” campaign theme is a not-so-subtle reference to GM.

But as executive turmoil within GM again bubbled to the surface this week, the Obama administration’s record on GM should be examined more closely.

And on examination, they have continually over-promising and under-delivering since the company relaunched in November of 2010 after receiving billions in taxpayer dollars.

And because of the way GM has been mismanaged, there has been constant turmoil and turnover within the top ranks of the company since it went public.

But Obama’s administration and GM’s CEO Dan Ackerson have largely been absolved by the press of any blame they deserve.
Since GM declared bankruptcy in 2009 and was bailed out by the Obama administration, Obama and GM executives have publicly set business benchmarks -- such as market share -- they have failed to reach while publicly pumping up GM’s stock and prospects.

When GM’s stock debuted on November 18, 2010 at $33 a share, Obama said the “tough decisions” that led to the bailout were beginning to pay off, according to a CNN report.

"American taxpayers are now in a position to recover more than my administration invested in GM," Obama said at a press conference then.
Steven Rattner, who headed the Presidential Task Force on the Auto Industry that managed the bailout, pumped up GM in January of 2011, saying, "recent progress at GM gives reason for optimism that it may be possible for taxpayers to get every penny back," according to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD).

In June of 2011, Rattner, whose financial misdeeds prompted authorities to seek to ban him from trading securities for life, continued praising GM’s prospects.

"As a pure investment matter, if I were managing this piece of capital, I would hang on at the moment," Rattner said. "I've got my fingers crossed the market will generally improve and GM with it and the government will be able to get out and it'll be a good outcome for everybody."
GM’s turnaround plan assumed, as its starting point, a market share of at least 19 percent.

"The public plan is 19 percent and change. That is what everything is being based on," GM board member Stephen Girsky said during a panel discussion at a conference at Columbia Business School in October of 2009.

In January of 2010, former GM CEO Ed Whitacre promised taxpayers would make a profit on the $50 billion bailout. These comments were consistent with Obama’s.

"I think the government's investment is well placed and I think they'll make a lot of money," Whitacre told reporters after an event at the annual auto show here Monday morning. "It won't be too long."

But after all the rosy talk and rhetoric, GM had to deal with hard numbers.

In August of 2011, GM’s original IPO price had declined by 20%. Dan Akerson said then that GM’s board told him that they did not want a “transitional CEO.”

“I know what I'm signing up for. As long as I make my numbers, I’ll probably keep the job,” Akerson said. “If I don't, then I shouldn't keep the job. That's the way it works."

Akerson continued his rosy forecasts when he said that in a few years, "I think people will go, 'Wow, I'm glad we invested in GM.' I'm talking about the American taxpayer," Akerson said, according to USA Today.

In January 2012, GM’s market share declined to 18.4 percent, and this time Akerson changed gears and said this had been his plan all along, which contradicts what had been said by GM board members in 2009.

“I like profitability more than I do market share. We’re a mass producer and scale matters to us, but obviously we’ll look for margin and profitability going into 2012,” Akerson said, according to Reuters.

Even in the US market that now provides the lion’s share of its profit, GM is losing ground to its competition. According to GM’s most recent earnings report, North American market share has also fallen for the last three quarters, now standing at 16.4%.

When GM’s stock price continued to decline, Ackerson, in June of 2012, could not change gears anymore and had to apologize for GM’s tanking stock
price.

"I regret the stock has not done well post-IPO. I assure you we're all dedicated to improving that over the medium to long term," Akerson said.
Just two months earlier, Akerson had said he hoped GM would return to investment-grade within the year.
“There are things that will happen over the next year or so that will drive that decision,” Akerson said in an interview at Bloomberg headquarters in May.

When asked if GM would get an investment rating in 12 months during the same interview, Akerson replied, “I hope so, but I don’t know.”
And in the meantime, GM’s market share has been eroding. In fact, GM's overall market share to date in 2012 is 18.1%, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The Treasury still owns roughly 30% of GM, and since GM’s shares are worth less than 2/3 of their original value, it is going to be extremely difficult for taxpayers to recover what they put in -- against their will, in many cases -- to GM.

Even worse, the way GM has been managed reflects poorly on the Obama administration and raises questions about his ability to manage -- let alone turnaround -- America’s economy.

When former GM CEO Whitacre abruptly resigned, Akerson, who got on GM’s board because of his connection to those in the Treasury Department, abruptly -- and surprisingly -- became the company’s CEO.

Commenting on GM for CNBC in August of 2010, Phil LeBeau wrote that “there are few answers coming from GM, and even fewer coming from the Treasury department which appointed Dan Akerson to the GM board last year and as the majority shareholder has to know what's going on.” LeBeau asked questions in August of 2010 that seem even more relevant today and in light of the distressing news coming out of GM:

If Ed Whitacre told the board earlier this year that he was not going to stick around, why did the GM board wait until now to make a quick selection of Akerson as CEO? Shouldn't the board have moved sooner? Wouldn't that have made Wall Street more comfortable heading into a GM IPO? Instead, for the second time in the last nine months a GM CEO is suddenly stepping down.

LeBeau also observed two years ago, in something that could have written this week, that it had been “common to hear people blast the old GM board of directors as being short-sighted, poorly run, and an example of how a board of directors should NOT function,” but the current board may be even worse.

Concerning Akerson’s sudden appointment, LeBeau noted that there was not a public search for a new CEO, Whitacre’s resignation and Akerson’s selection caught other GM executives by surprise, and the process looked “like a rush job akin to a high school student council picking its next president.”

“In short, many people, including investors, are wondering how decisions are being made at GM and whether this company is so intent on getting an IPO done that it's dropped the ball when it comes to corporate governance,” LeBeau asserted.

And yet, GM still remains a central part of Obama’s campaign strategy.

When Romney visited a GM plant in June for a campaign event, Obama rapid response director Lis Smith said, "Romney’s decision to hold an event today at a GM supplier in Ohio highlights how, if he’d had his way, the American auto industry and the more than a million jobs it supports would cease to exist today.”

“GM and Chrysler are in existence, creating jobs, and posting some of their most profitable quarters in history because President Obama bet on American workers,” Smith boasted. “The real question is whether Mitt Romney — at his economy-focused event today — will explain to Ohioans why he opposed saving an industry that is responsible for one out of eight jobs in their state.”

And, as TPM notes, Obama has referenced GM many times on the stump.

“Together, we’re fighting our way back,” Obama has said.  “When some wanted to let Detroit go bankrupt, we made a bet on American workers, on the ingenuity of American companies. And today, our auto industry is back on top of the world.”

But GM seems to hardly be on “top of the world.”

As Breitbart News editor Ben Shapiro noted, “Obama may have bailed out GM, but he didn’t bail out the taxpayer – and in the long run, GM won’t be a viable business just because the government cut it a check.”

GM’s decline suggests the debate going forward should not be about how successfully Obama turned GM around -- he didn’t -- but about why GM’s CEO Akerson and Obama and those in his administration have not been called out and held to account for their mismanagement of taxpayer money that was forcibly invested in what seems like a company more than on its way to more decline.
 
Explain this then.

Chrysler uses strong presence in US to notch $436M second-quarter profit

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/chrysler-uses-strong-presence-in-us-to-notch-436m-second-quarter-profit/2012/07/30/gJQARJheKX_story.html

DETROIT — Chrysler rode big sales increases in the U.S. to a $436 million profit in the second quarter.

A year earlier, the company lost $370 million, mainly because it refinanced government bailout loans

Unlike other U.S.-based automakers, Chrysler is benefiting from its reliance on the United States car market. While other companies are losing money in Europe, Chrysler has little presence there. The company gets 75 percent of its sales from the U.S., where the market has been growing for the past three years.

Chrysler says second-quarter revenue increased 23 percent $16.8 billion.

And This:

GM Earnings Fall On European Losses

http://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2012/05/03/gm-earnings-fall-on-european-losses/

General Motors today reported first-quarter net income of $1 billion, down from $3.2 billion in the same period a year ago, as strong profits in a recovering North American market were offset by losses in Europe and lower earnings elsewhere in the world.

GM’s post-bankruptcy financial performance in North America continues to impress, despite its lowest market share in decades. GM’s earnings before interest and taxes in the region were $1.7 billion, up $400 million from a year ago, even though its North American market share slid to 16.7 percent. By successfully matching factory production to consumer demand, GM was able to avoid heavy discounts that can sap profits.

Like other carmakers, however, GM continues to struggle in Europe, where it lost $300 million before interest and taxes. A year ago, GM broke even in the region, which has been battered by economic uncertainty. During a conference call with analysts, chief executive Dan Akerson said “we’re still not matching production to demand” in Europe and hinted that production cuts would be announced before the end of June. In South America, where GM recorded $100 million in profit, about flat with last year, GM said higher costs were offset by improved sales. In the rest of the world, including China, where GM is a market leader, GM’s profits fell 17 percent, to $500 million, on higher costs.

“The U.S. economic recovery, record demand for GM vehicles in China and the global growth of the Chevrolet brand helped deliver solid earnings for General Motors,” Dan Akerson, GM’s chief executive said in a statement. “New products are starting to make a difference in South America but Europe remains a work in progress. We’ll continue to work on both revenue and cost opportunities until we have brought GM to competitive levels of profitability.”

GM is getting more bullish on the year, too. A stronger U.S. economy is helping release pent-up demand, so GM now expects that full-year 2012 U.S. light vehicle sales will be in the 14.0 million – 14.5 million range, up from 13.5 million – 14.0 million units. The company said its North American profits in the second and third quarters are likely to be flat with last year because of the scheduled retooling of its truck factories to prepare for its next-generation pickups and full-size SUVs.

“We are aggressively eliminating complexity to reduce our costs, and at that same time, we are preparing for more than 20 major vehicle launches around the world in 2012 to drive revenue this year and farther into the future,” said chief financial officer Dan Ammann, .

Meanwhile Ford (which didn't get / need a bailout) is bleeding.

Ford Q1 Earnings Tumble
Maker blames higher taxes, lower European, Chinese sales.


http://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2012/04/ford-q1-earnings-tumble/

Ford Motor Co. saw its first quarter net income plunged 45% compared to a year ago to $1.4 billion, or 35 cents a share, the maker blaming higher taxes and lower European and Chinese sales for the sharp slide. But North American results were their best in over a decade.

The maker meanwhile announced plans to offer lump-sum buyouts to as many as 90,000 of its former employees, especially white-collar workers, in a bid to reduce its pension costs.

It’s unclear whether the weak first quarter will impact Ford’s efforts to improve its credit rating.  The maker received a significant boost from Fitch Ratings, earlier this week, which returned the maker to investment grade.  But other agencies, including Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s have yet to weigh in.
 
The lack of car sales is a negative economic  indicator.When times are good people buy cars. When they arent they try to keep their older car running. Neighbors whose kids have graduated college cannot find jobs. Unfortunately the administration is more about regulating business into the ground as opposed to lessen regulations to foster economic growth. The President's policies have seen a record growth in the social security disability rolls to over 8m people. There are more people on food stamps. Yet the so called stimulus to encourage shovel ready jobs never happened. The government would have been better off giving everyone $100,000. Mortgages could have been paid off or other personal debt.
 
The ultimate explanation has already been posted upthread; GM stock is down 2/3 from where it was when they received the bailout.

"Channel stuffing" (i.e. reporting cars in inventory as "sold") and other clever accounting tricks only go so far, the market "knows" and has already discounted for these effects. Attempting to draw attention to GM's performance will always run into the valuation issue, which contradicts the "narrative" of success. This is why anyone in the Obama reelection team should be very wary of pointing to GM.
 
More on wildly variable election models. Since this is a pocketbook election, there is probably some validity to the model. I'm not sure how the war tracking thing is going, anti war hysteria simply vanished from the Legacy media after 2008, even though the levels of combat and casualties continued at roughly the same pace:

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/08/economic-forecasting-model-predicts-obama-will-lose-in-near-landslide/

Economic forecasting model predicts Obama will lose in near-landslide
James Pethokoukis | August 2, 2012, 9:16 am

Political scientist Douglas Hibbs looks at two factors when forecasting presidential elections: a) per capita real disposable personal income over the incumbent president’s term, and b) cumulative U.S. military fatalities in overseas conflicts.

And he’s predicting a near-landslide win for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama, with Obama losing by about as big a margin in 2012 as he won back in 2008. Under Hibbs Bread and Peace model, Romney wins 52.5% to Obama’s 47.5%.

First, here is how Hibbs sees the “peace” part of his equation.

To project Obama’s 2012 vote I’ll make the plausible assumption that American military fatalities in Afghanistan continue running at the (politically relatively low) average quarterly rate of the past year: 95 or 0.3 per millions of population. At Election Day cumulative Fatalities then would amount to approximately 1500 or 4.8 per millions of population, which would depress Obama’s expected two-­‐party vote share by less than a quarter of a percentage point −0.5 ⋅ 4.8 = −0.24%. Baring a really big escalation in the aggressiveness of fighters resisting US military presence in Afghanistan, plausible alternative assumptions about the flow of American body bags during the next four months would only negligibly affect my projections of Obama’s re-­‐election prospects.

Now the “bread” part of the equation:

Consequently, growth rates of per capita real disposable personal income over the remainder of the term will be the decisive as yet unrealized fundamental factor in the 2012 presidential election. Calculations in the table 3 show that according to the Bread and Peace model per capita real income growth rates must average out at nearly 6 percent after 2012:q2 for Obama to have a decent chance of re-­‐election. If the US economy experiences an unanticipated reversal of fortune with growth surging to rates not uncommon in the initial robust phase of recoveries from deep contractions, Obama could squeak out a win, as implied by the last column of table 3. However the pace of recovery from the 2008 Great Recession remains sluggish, and the famous 2009 book This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff documents how recoveries from contractions originating with the bursting of speculative financial bubbles are not V‐shaped as in garden-­variety recessions, but instead are typically prolonged U-­shaped affairs lasting 5 to 6 years. The univariate statistical properties of postwar per capita real disposable personal incomes indicate that the chances of weighted-­average growth on the order of 6% over the one and one-­third quarters remaining until Election Day 2012 are no better than 1/10.

Here is that Table #3 Hibbs refers to. It shows how much of the two-party vote Obama would get under different economic scenarios.

And Hibbs the scenarios shaded in gray as the most likely:

The protocol of the PS Election Forecast Symposium obliges me to make a specific prediction of the 2012 aggregate voting result. My reading of the tea leaves (statistical forecasts of income and output growth from formal econometric models have proven to be useless) leads me to posit that quarterly, annualized per capita real income growth rates will fall in the interval [1.2%] during the remainder of President Obama’s term. That supposition, along with my assumption that fatalities in Afghanistan will not escalate dramatically, yields a projected Obama two-­party vote share centered at 47.5%, as indicated by boldface entries in table 3.

And How is Hibb’s track record?

The only postwar presidential election results not well explained by the Bread and Peace model are 1996 and 2000. In 1996 the vote received by the incumbent Democrat Clinton was 4% higher than expected from political‐economic fundamentals, whereas in 2000 the vote for the incumbent Democratic Party candidate Gore was 4.5% less than expected from fundamentals. I am tempted to argue that idiosyncratic influence of candidate personalities took especially strong form in those elections, with the ever charming Bill Clinton looking especially attractive when pitted against the darkly foreboding Bob Dole in 1996, and the unfailingly wooden Al Gore paling by comparison to an affable George W. Bush in 2000. Alas, this line of reasoning is entirely ad hoc and without scientific merit.

Reading Hibb’s entire paper, I get the sense he is not thrilled with what his model is telling him. He even mentions that he’s a big fan of betting markets, and they show an Obama win. But the model says what it says — even he kind of gently suggests Romney is another stiff, just like Dole and Gore.
 
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