- Reaction score
- 5,949
- Points
- 1,260
At the risk of getting back on topic ...
It seems to me that President Obama faces two challenges:
1. The economy - exemplified by the unemployment numbers. I think April, May and June will be the key months, because I think Americans will be, relatively less concerned with economics and politics in the high summer months; if the economy is improving in April, May and June and if unemployment is falling - measurably, then President Obama will be able to run a "good news" campaign in the fall and he might be hard to beat. But if the economy and unemployment are worse in the spring than now then I think Obama will be fairly easy to defeat, if the GOP doesn't defeat itself in the primaries; and
2. Washington - Obama is now the "face" of Washington, more than John Boehner and harry Reid combined. Washington is dysfunctional, more so than the "founding fathers" intended (and they did intend to have an inefficient government) and Obama will be obliged to take a full, unfairly large share of the blame for that. Many Americans blame "Washington" for whatever they perceive to be wrong, to the extent that Obama = Washington then he will pay the price.
If Romney or an as yet unknown "outsider" (drafted in a brokered convention) is the GOP nominee then I think Obama is vulnerable, even if the economy is not too bad. If Gingrich is the nominee then I think Obama is going to be re-elected even if the US slips back into a recession. I think the Democrats will, literally, wipe the floor with Gingrich - Obama in a landslide.
It seems to me that President Obama faces two challenges:
1. The economy - exemplified by the unemployment numbers. I think April, May and June will be the key months, because I think Americans will be, relatively less concerned with economics and politics in the high summer months; if the economy is improving in April, May and June and if unemployment is falling - measurably, then President Obama will be able to run a "good news" campaign in the fall and he might be hard to beat. But if the economy and unemployment are worse in the spring than now then I think Obama will be fairly easy to defeat, if the GOP doesn't defeat itself in the primaries; and
2. Washington - Obama is now the "face" of Washington, more than John Boehner and harry Reid combined. Washington is dysfunctional, more so than the "founding fathers" intended (and they did intend to have an inefficient government) and Obama will be obliged to take a full, unfairly large share of the blame for that. Many Americans blame "Washington" for whatever they perceive to be wrong, to the extent that Obama = Washington then he will pay the price.
If Romney or an as yet unknown "outsider" (drafted in a brokered convention) is the GOP nominee then I think Obama is vulnerable, even if the economy is not too bad. If Gingrich is the nominee then I think Obama is going to be re-elected even if the US slips back into a recession. I think the Democrats will, literally, wipe the floor with Gingrich - Obama in a landslide.