Trudeau Popularity - or not (various polling, etc.)

[Furniture]

NDP are still dead in the water if CPC win a majority, and both NDP and LPC have a shared interest in trying to keep them to a minority, however unlikely that is. But it’s at its least-likeliest right now and in the short term.

So "hope" is a COA? It's not impossible, but it is so far beyond plausible at this stage that using it to extend the current government's time, hoping for an "event" that will save them, is not a rational plan. They might rationalize their reluctance to give up power with it, but it's not rational.

The longer term interests of the LPC and NDP would be best served by taking the beating now, and use the next several years to rebuild into something that is viable and distanced from Trudeau.

I would love to see a reasonable center/center-left LPC re-emerge from the ashes of the current party, but I don't have much hope for it.

 

[Good2Golf]

“….once a new leader is chosen…”


Liberal Party National President rushing to arrange a meeting of the National Board of Directors to appoint an ‘interim leader’ (who may look a lot like Justin Trudeau) and then set a date for the Leadership vote…


I predict:

1. LPC National President Sachit Mehra takes up to the 27 days the Liberal party constitution (Sect. 44.d.i) gives him from formally receiving Trudeau’s resignation letter to formally call the Board of Directors to appoint an interim leader - let’s say NLT 1 Feb;
2. LPC Board of Directors set a Leader Election Date (Sect. 44.d.ii) which must, in accordance with Sect. 45.c, respect the minimum 90-day period for Leadership contestants to advise the National Board of Directors of their intention to pursue election and to provide their respective endorsements of no less than 300 registered Liberal members (and NLT 100 from each of at least three provinces or territories) - this would be at a minimum NVB (no vote before) of 1 May. Let’s say the National Board of Directors recall PMJT’s words at today’s presser regarding ensuring the right leader is found from across the country to ensure all of Canadian society is included, and they think 150 days ‘better serves Canadians’ so we then have a Liberal Leader vote 1 July;
3. Justin Trudeau then is able to lead the upcoming G7 meeting in Kananaskis, and hand the reigns of Liberal Party leadership and PM to Xxx Xxxxx and ride off into the sunset.
4. Jagmeet Singh supports the cunning plan, as do all the Liberal MPs, because they have what they want, Trudeau moving on, but it was done on his terms, due in great part to his reengineering of the LPC constitution back in 2016.
5. New PM in early-July announces a 27 October federal election (as a nod to Trudeau’s benevolent support of Canada’s Hindi communities and his respect of Diwali) and Canada gets a permanent PM thereafter.

I stand to be corrected, but I won’t be surprised at all if this is close to how this whole thing goes down.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Who or how becomes his replacement is immaterial to me at this point.

All that matters to me is that on March 25, this millstone around Canadians necks will be gone.

Then a vote of no confidence can hopefully be held and an election date set 37 days after the GG dissolves parliament.

End April beginning of May we can start putting the last nine years behind us and start a new era under the Conservatives.

Side note: I don't think it'll much matter who the liberals select as leader. While trudeau might be seen as the catalyst, the whole party is damaged maybe beyond repair, and I doubt anyone will change the minds of Canadians in two months on that.

 

[dapaterson]

I suspect amending the LPC constitution is easier than amending the Canadian Constitution... I would wager that the senior party folks want to rip off the band aid.

 

[Good2Golf]

Trudeau will eventually stepped down but we still have very little idea how this will play out in the mid term.

Tweaked for accuracy

I don't know if the NDP can afford the backlash. They run the real risk of serving up their heads on silver platters to both the BQ and CPC. I think they're forced into not supporting the Liberals any further at this point.

They actually stand to gain perhaps a few more seats with worsening Liberal support, I’d think. Support the new Government on March 26 and Canadians will look at them as a viable alternative in October.

All that matters to me is that on March 25, this millstone around Canadians necks will be gone.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Every Liberal MP and Leadership contender supported EVERYTHING Trudeau did for 9 years, and now they want to trick voters by swapping in another Liberal face to keep ripping off Canadians for another 4 years, just like Justin," Poilievre writes on X.

Nailed it.

 

[brihard]

I sure hope there is a legal challenge to this prorogation, parliament resumes, and a non-confidence vote occurs, with election asap. The country cannot be shut down because the LPC are inconvenienced of their own making.

I’ve seen nothing from informed commentators suggesting a legal challenge tongue is likely to succeed. It’s a conventional constitutional authority of the Governor General. “We don’t like it” doesn’t make it unlawful.

The country is not shut down. The legislature is. The executive continues to function and in fact has much more freedom of movement than it would in a pre-election caretaker period. The departments and agencies keep doing their thing.

If he supports this government any longer, get ready for Caucus Revolt 2: Electric Boogaloo to happen.

He's hanging on by a thread within his own party, so I can see him moving the ball forward with the rest of the Opposition Parties.

Maybe, maybe not. He can turn right back around and say he’s maximizing their chances of having any influence whatsoever over the next four years. Against a CPC majority, the NDP might as well mail it in.

So "hope" is a COA? It's not impossible, but it is so far beyond plausible at this stage that using it to extend the current government's time, hoping for an "event" that will save them, is not a rational plan. They might rationalize their reluctance to give up power with it, but it's not rational.

The longer term interests of the LPC and NDP would be best served by taking the beating now, and use the next several years to rebuild into something that is viable and distanced from Trudeau.

I would love to see a reasonable center/center-left LPC re-emerge from the ashes of the current party, but I don't have much hope for it.

It’s politics; hope is always a COA. They would be hoping for the electoral math to change. They’d be hoping for a Trump to say and do dumb shit that they can tar a future CPC government with. They’re gonna take a beating regardless. Now or in six or eight or ten months may not matter long term if they can tangibly impact the magnitude of the said beating. Either way they’re going to have a lengthy stint of time to rebuild.

The NDP will be assessing their own best interests.

Note that I’m not describing what I want. I want an election ASAP. I’m just assessing considerations and thinking of ways this could play out.

 

[PuckChaser]

Place your bets on who Canada's next John Tuner will be.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The longer it takes to get rid of trudeau, the more pissed off people will become with the liberal party, if that's possible. Time, to play politics, is not on their side. Rip off the bandage and start rebuilding is their best course.

As far as Trump is concerned, I doubt it will affect anything for now. He knows trudeau is a lame duck and doesn't speak for the country anymore. Except for some barbs back and forth, whatever trudeau says or does is not a concern. Trump will wait to see who wins the election to start working in earnest.
Will he reach out to Poliviere, to start a relationship? That remains to be seen.

 

[QV]

I’ve seen nothing from informed commentators suggesting a legal challenge tongue is likely to succeed. It’s a conventional constitutional authority of the Governor General. “We don’t like it” doesn’t make it unlawful.

The country is not shut down. The legislature is. The executive continues to function and in fact has much more freedom of movement than it would in a pre-election caretaker period. The departments and agencies keep doing their thing.

Expect a court challenge if Justin Trudeau puts Parliament on pause

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau should get ready to go to court if he prorogues Parliament to dodge an expected non-confidence vote in January

nationalpost.com

Some snips:


In a landmark fall 2019 ruling, the U.K. Supreme Court put the brakes on then prime minister Boris Johnson’s bid to silence Parliamentary debate ahead of the Oct. 31 Brexit deadline.

The court’s unanimous 11-0 decision nullified Johnson’s earlier request to the Queen to put a five-week pause on Parliament at the height of a political crisis over Britain’s imminent withdrawal from the EU. The prime minister and his fellow MPs went back to work the next day.

“If (Canada’s) Parliament were prorogued in such a way as to escape accountability, and prevent Parliament from playing its constitutional role, then that would be constitutionally problematic.”

Carleton University professor Philippe Lagassé, who studies executive power in Westminster states, says he agrees.

“I could see a similar challenge in Canada,” Lagassé said in an email. “The underlying issue would be comparable… would a prorogation frustrate an unwritten principle of democracy?”

Constitutional scholar Stéphane Sérafin said the challenge would likely be put to the Federal Court, which hears disputes over the federal government’s lawmaking powers.

“Once (jurisdiction) is established, the court could grant declaratory relief on the terms it considers appropriate,” said Sérafin.

“An appeal to the Supreme Court of Canada is not necessarily going to happen because it needs to grant leave.”

 

[QV]

Governor General betrays constitution by letting Liberals escape Parliament​

Christopher Dummitt: Governor General betrays Constitution by letting Liberals escape Parliament

She is only helping the Liberal party

nationalpost.com

 

[brihard]

Expect a court challenge if Justin Trudeau puts Parliament on pause

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau should get ready to go to court if he prorogues Parliament to dodge an expected non-confidence vote in January

nationalpost.com

Some snips:


In a landmark fall 2019 ruling, the U.K. Supreme Court put the brakes on then prime minister Boris Johnson’s bid to silence Parliamentary debate ahead of the Oct. 31 Brexit deadline.

The court’s unanimous 11-0 decision nullified Johnson’s earlier request to the Queen to put a five-week pause on Parliament at the height of a political crisis over Britain’s imminent withdrawal from the EU. The prime minister and his fellow MPs went back to work the next day.

“If (Canada’s) Parliament were prorogued in such a way as to escape accountability, and prevent Parliament from playing its constitutional role, then that would be constitutionally problematic.”

Carleton University professor Philippe Lagassé, who studies executive power in Westminster states, says he agrees.

“I could see a similar challenge in Canada,” Lagassé said in an email. “The underlying issue would be comparable… would a prorogation frustrate an unwritten principle of democracy?”

Constitutional scholar Stéphane Sérafin said the challenge would likely be put to the Federal Court, which hears disputes over the federal government’s lawmaking powers.

“Once (jurisdiction) is established, the court could grant declaratory relief on the terms it considers appropriate,” said Sérafin.

“An appeal to the Supreme Court of Canada is not necessarily going to happen because it needs to grant leave.”

Yup, ai have read those and followed some of the further discussion. None of it suggests it’s likely to work.

The CPC already did this in 2008. There’s a precedent of tolerating prorogues designed to let a government achieve a reset and try to regain confidence in the House.

Will there be screeching and whining over it? Of course. That doesn’t make it constitutionally unsound or in any way unlawful.

 

[The Bread Guy]

POTUS47: Never fails to disappoint!

 

[QV]

Yup, ai have read those and followed some of the further discussion. None of it suggests it’s likely to work.

The CPC already did this in 2008. There’s a precedent of tolerating prorogues designed to let a government achieve a reset and try to regain confidence in the House.

Will there be screeching and whining over it? Of course. That doesn’t make it constitutionally unsound or in any way unlawful.

Fair. But that was then and this is now. The situation in the world and the country very are different and I suspect the tolerance for prorogues has changed. We'll see what happens, I'm not writing it off.

 

[jackamela]

Who or how becomes his replacement is immaterial to me at this point.

All that matters to me is that on March 25, this millstone around Canadians necks will be gone.

Then a vote of no confidence can hopefully be held and an election date set 37 days after the GG dissolves parliament.

End April beginning of May we can start putting the last nine years behind us and start a new era under the Conservatives.

Side note: I don't think it'll much matter who the liberals select as leader. While trudeau might be seen as the catalyst, the whole party is damaged maybe beyond repair, and I doubt anyone will change the minds of Canadians in two months on that.

Amen.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Place your bets on who Canada's next John Turner will be.

Or Kim Campbell, depending on the sex of the sacrificial lamb candidate.

 

[jackamela]

I sure hope there is a legal challenge to this prorogation, parliament resumes, and a non-confidence vote occurs, with election asap. The country cannot be shut down because the LPC are inconvenienced of their own making.

Is a legal challenge a possibility?

 

[CountDC]

Ok, am I the only one that thinks it would be funny if after going through all the work voting for a new party leader Trudeau then says, "Sorry, I don't like that option and have decided not to resign".

After all, he hasn't actually resigned and can't be forced out. He has only stated his plan is to resign after the party has chosen a new leader.

 

[Cloud Cover]

POTUS47: Never fails to disappoint!
View attachment 90285

JFC. Just get the election going right now.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Is a legal challenge a possibility?

It’s a very high bar, but what is to be gained. The process with elections Canada to administer a snap election has not been engaged. We won’t be going to the polls until October. Nothing has changed.