The War in Ukraine

[KevinB]

Liberal Party of Canada. Jean Chretien. Justin Trudeau. Mark Carney. .... and the Green Revolution and Just Transition.

I think @PrairieFella meant peacefully and not trying to worm their way in.

 

[KevinB]

Personally I think the notion of Taiwan as a distraction while leaking into Siberia is a more likely course of action.

Russia would most likely resort to nuclear weapons in that case.
They are aware of China's Little Green Men in the East - but China is opting for squatting at this point, not acting like the Russian method, and Xi's cash has kept the Putin kleptocracy afloat for the last 3 years - so Russia ignores it. But armed incursion with insurrection would be a red line that Putin most likely would use Nuclear Weapons for (as he can't use his army).

I think Taiwan originally was planned as a way to 'blood' the Chinese Army before ay conflict with Russia - but Ukraine has shown how costly an opposed invasion can be, and Xi doesn't want his legacy to be known as the Folly of the Chinese Putin...

 

[MilEME09]

Russia rejects 30 day ceasefire

https://twitter.com/x/status/1899536388380578292

 

[GR66]

Personally I think the notion of Taiwan as a distraction while leaking into Siberia is a more likely course of action.

I'm not so sure. I see parallels between the fanaticism behind Russia's determination to absorb Ukraine and China's desire to re-unite with Taiwan (and maybe a little bit in Trump's Manifest Destiny obsession with Canada?)

 

[Colin Parkinson]

JD Vance's cousin reflects on his time fighting for Ukraine and does not have kind words about his cousin

 

[HavokFour]

Russia rejects 30 day ceasefire

https://twitter.com/x/status/1899536388380578292

There you go Trump. You no longer have an excuse, Russia isn't for peace and appeasement has failed. Now arm Ukraine to the teeth.

 

[Kirkhill]

Russia would most likely resort to nuclear weapons in that case.
They are aware of China's Little Green Men in the East - but China is opting for squatting at this point, not acting like the Russian method, and Xi's cash has kept the Putin kleptocracy afloat for the last 3 years - so Russia ignores it. But armed incursion with insurrection would be a red line that Putin most likely would use Nuclear Weapons for (as he can't use his army).

I think Taiwan originally was planned as a way to 'blood' the Chinese Army before ay conflict with Russia - but Ukraine has shown how costly an opposed invasion can be, and Xi doesn't want his legacy to be known as the Folly of the Chinese Putin...

I agree. On both your Canadian and Russian observations. I think China prefers the threat of war to war itself. Secret police stations are much more to its taste. That and time.

 

[Kirkhill]

I'm not so sure. I see parallels between the fanaticism behind Russia's determination to absorb Ukraine and China's desire to re-unite with Taiwan (and maybe a little bit in Trump's Manifest Destiny obsession with Canada?)

In all three cases I think the Ukrainians have taught a lesson. The economic juice is not worth the squeeze. Far better to have a distant goal in the never-never than to waste resources and risk societal abruption in the here and now.

The Russians and the Ukrainians lost a lot of youngsters over their borders. Do you reckon the Chinese would be able to secure the Uyghurs, Tibetans and Hong Kong while fighting Taiwan? And as for the US invading Canada... The Democrats were the Anti-Vietnam party. Do you reckon they would follow Donald all the way to Moosomin?

 

[KevinB]

Russia rejects 30 day ceasefire

https://twitter.com/x/status/1899536388380578292

He’s the ‘opposition’ in Russia. So technically not the official position of the Russian government. The question is why did Putin tell him to say that? Is to frame Putin as a peacemaker and able to walk back (doubt), or to show Russians United for war…

 

[GR66]

In all three cases I think the Ukrainians have taught a lesson. The economic juice is not worth the squeeze. Far better to have a distant goal in the never-never than to waste resources and risk societal abruption in the here and now.

The Russians and the Ukrainians lost a lot of youngsters over their borders. Do you reckon the Chinese would be able to secure the Uyghurs, Tibetans and Hong Kong while fighting Taiwan? And as for the US invading Canada... The Democrats were the Anti-Vietnam party. Do you reckon they would follow Donald all the way to Moosomin?

The Ukrainians have taught Russia a lesson, but they haven't given up. They, like China face a demographic clock that is ticking away on both their leaders and their population. They realize that if they want their moment of glory it's got to be soon before they fade away into history. That can make for some very illogical decision making.

Edit to add: It's been mentioned several times in the past few years that when a dictator says he's going to do something you should listen to him. Xi has said his military should be ready to re-take Taiwan by force by 2027. Are we listening?

 

[Kirkhill]

The Ukrainians have taught Russia a lesson, but they haven't given up. They, like China face a demographic clock that is ticking away on both their leaders and their population. They realize that if they want their moment of glory it's got to be soon before they fade away into history. That can make for some very illogical decision making.

Edit to add: It's been mentioned several times in the past few years that when a dictator says he's going to do something you should listen to him. Xi has said his military should be ready to re-take Taiwan by force by 2027. Are we listening?

I'll put it this way. Expressed intent should now be taken as a serious planning factor. Even if there is strong evidence to believe it is just a bluff.

Plan for the worst and hope for the best.

 

[quadrapiper]

Russia would most likely resort to nuclear weapons in that case.
They are aware of China's Little Green Men in the East - but China is opting for squatting at this point, not acting like the Russian method, and Xi's cash has kept the Putin kleptocracy afloat for the last 3 years - so Russia ignores it. But armed incursion with insurrection would be a red line that Putin most likely would use Nuclear Weapons for (as he can't use his army).

I think Taiwan originally was planned as a way to 'blood' the Chinese Army before ay conflict with Russia - but Ukraine has shown how costly an opposed invasion can be, and Xi doesn't want his legacy to be known as the Folly of the Chinese Putin...

Setting aside Russia's possible response, not sure why China would need to distract those countries who would care about Taiwan from a move in Siberia.

Chinese administration would likely be an improvement, especially in urban areas and townships.

 

[McG]

The Democrats were the Anti-Vietnam party. Do you reckon they would follow Donald all the way to Moosomin?

They have not been able to effectively limit his whims so far. What is magic about Moosomin?

 

[Kirkhill]

They have not been able to effectively limit his whims so far. What is magic about Moosomin?

I'm guessing they would be asking the same question.

 

[KevinB]

The Ukrainians have taught Russia a lesson, but they haven't given up. They, like China face a demographic clock that is ticking away on both their leaders and their population. They realize that if they want their moment of glory it's got to be soon before they fade away into history. That can make for some very illogical decision making.

Agreed, but I think Russia and China are significantly different.
Putin has doubled down again and again in Ukraine, his life is now tied to it, as he is unlikely to survive a loss.
Xi hasn't committed any kinetic actions that are linked to China at this point -- sure they are belligerent, but staying in the gray zone of hostile actions.

Edit to add: It's been mentioned several times in the past few years that when a dictator says he's going to do something you should listen to him. Xi has said his military should be ready to re-take Taiwan by force by 2027. Are we listening?

Everyone should be listening, and more than listening they should be preparing. Additionally there should be actions taken towards China that give Xi a viable off ramp to military collision. The Chinese population declining is a temporary thing, based on the now removed one child policy - a costly conflict could make that irreversible. Find a way to raise the Chinese standard of living - something the West failed to do with Russia.
History has shown time and time again, that a population that doesn't see a way out will cling to anything or anyone who will promise them a better life - even if it is terribly unrealistic.

 

[Genetk44]

There you go Trump. You no longer have an excuse, Russia isn't for peace and appeasement has failed. Now arm Ukraine to the teeth.

If only