The War in Ukraine

[The Bread Guy]

Colour me unimpressed but not surprised with the VP pick for the GOP.

NEWSFLASH: What J.D. Vance means for Ukraine

It's bad. The Ohio senator has been openly hostile to the Ukrainian position for years. Here's a primer on what you need to know:

www.counteroffensive.news

And the "don't worry, lookit all that OTHER help you already have" narrative begins ...

Blinken points to wider pledges to support Ukraine in case US backs away under Trump

Secretary of State Antony Blinken says Ukraine is on its way to being able to “stand on its own feet” militarily and more than 20 other countries have pledged to maintain their own military and financial aid to the country even if the U.S. were to withdraw its support under a different president.

apnews.com

 

[dapaterson]

Target rich environment.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1815489580172533973

 

[Maxman1]

Ukraine destroys Putin’s last railway ferry in Crimea

Ship used to transport military equipment to Russian forces struck in drone strike

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Czech_pivo]

Ukraine destroys Putin’s last railway ferry in Crimea

Ship used to transport military equipment to Russian forces struck in drone strike

www.telegraph.co.uk

A small ray of light. The Ukrainians have been falling back in a fair number of areas over the last 2 weeks. Losses of territory had won last summer and some areas that were never lost in the first place. Unless they are planning a late summer or fall offensive, I don't see the trend reversing.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The Ukrainians have manged to regain a bit of ground

 

[Skysix]

A small ray of light. The Ukrainians have been falling back in a fair number of areas over the last 2 weeks. Losses of territory had won last summer and some areas that were never lost in the first place. Unless they are planning a late summer or fall offensive, I don't see the trend reversing.

Retaining/retaking land is not their primary strategy this year, it is degrading /attriting Russian capabilities and protecting populations. Retaking land is more of an operational goal.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Retaining/retaking land is not their primary strategy this year, it is degrading /attriting Russian capabilities and protecting populations. Retaking land is more of an operational goal.

My fear is that come Jan 20 2025 they will be kneecapped and their ability to do much will be severely limited.

 

[MilEME09]

My fear is that come Jan 20 2025 they will be kneecapped and their ability to do much will be severely limited.

Russia's supply situation is already bad, idk if they cant even maintain current moment right now, Troops are getting issued 1L of water a day (and pilots too), I've seen video like below of guys dragging ammo crates for hours to bring ammo to forward postions, or using small DJI drones to resupply 1kg at a time. This sounds more like logistical systems failing, which could lead to ukrainian counter attacks in areas of the front not a priority for russia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1813857825413849187

https://twitter.com/x/status/1815874507074130076

https://twitter.com/x/status/1815116489256796460

 

[suffolkowner]

My fear is that come Jan 20 2025 they will be kneecapped and their ability to do much will be severely limited.

Reasonable but if NK can supply Russia with millions of rounds, surely NATO absent the US if it come to that can handle it.

 

[KevinB]

The Right Way to Quickly End the War in Ukraine

Instead of abandoning Kyiv, Washington should give it the tools to win.

www.foreignaffairs.com

 

[KevinB]

Reasonable but if NK can supply Russia with millions of rounds, surely NATO absent the US if it come to that can handle it.

NK has a lot of QC issues, as Russia found out in the spring.
They are also not as deep with ammo as they like to pretend. 2.5m rounds to Russia this spring really did take a bite out of their stockpiles, and also gave SK a good reason to back Ukraine heavier.

 

[quadrapiper]

NK has a lot of QC issues, as Russia found out in the spring.
They are also not as deep with ammo as they like to pretend. 2.5m rounds to Russia this spring really did take a bite out of their stockpiles, and also gave SK a good reason to back Ukraine heavier.

You get: 2.5 million chances to play "premature explosion when?," none newer than 1965, manufactured by the Juche Heroes Cooperative Arms and Farm Equipment Factory, plus an indeterminate number of malnourished infantry. Oh, and one of your worst neighbours now knows you owe them.

Your enemy gets: an armoured corps worth of shiny new K2s and assorted supporting kit delivered in "keep the box" Hyundai Heavy Industries ships, and all the highly-trained technical support they could ask for. Plus diplomatic and trade ties with one of the most successful economies on the planet.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Like the old commercial used to say, reach out and touch someone ....

Ukrainian drones strike Russian strategic bomber at Olenya airfield, source says

Ukrainian reconnaissance drones struck a TU-22M3 long-range strategic bomber, a missile carrier, at the Olenya airfield in Russia on Saturday, 27 July.

www.pravda.com.ua

Ukraine Claims Attack On Murmansk Airfield, Notes Russian Helicopter Losses

Ukraine's military intelligence claimed on July 27 that its drones attacked the Olenya airfield in Russia's far northern Murmansk region, saying it struck a TU-22M3 strategic bomber. It also said that three Russian Army helicopters had been destroyed on Russian territory over the previous week.

www.rferl.org

Ukrainian drone hit Tu-22M3 bomber at Olenya airfield, intel report claims

Russia's war against Ukraine has for the first time hit back on the Arctic. A Tu-22M3 bomber at the Olenya airfield on the Kola Peninsula was Saturday morning hit by a drone, the Intelligence Service of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reports.

thebarentsobserver.com

Just to give you a bird's eye view of the distances involved (although who's to say it was launched from Ukraine?) ...

 

[brihard]

Like the old commercial used to say, reach out and touch someone ....

Ukrainian drones strike Russian strategic bomber at Olenya airfield, source says

Ukrainian reconnaissance drones struck a TU-22M3 long-range strategic bomber, a missile carrier, at the Olenya airfield in Russia on Saturday, 27 July.

www.pravda.com.ua

Ukraine Claims Attack On Murmansk Airfield, Notes Russian Helicopter Losses

Ukraine's military intelligence claimed on July 27 that its drones attacked the Olenya airfield in Russia's far northern Murmansk region, saying it struck a TU-22M3 strategic bomber. It also said that three Russian Army helicopters had been destroyed on Russian territory over the previous week.

www.rferl.org

Ukrainian drone hit Tu-22M3 bomber at Olenya airfield, intel report claims

Russia's war against Ukraine has for the first time hit back on the Arctic. A Tu-22M3 bomber at the Olenya airfield on the Kola Peninsula was Saturday morning hit by a drone, the Intelligence Service of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reports.

thebarentsobserver.com

Just to give you a bird's eye view of the distances involved (although who's to say it was launched from Ukraine?) ...
View attachment 86903

If true, that’s an absolute hell of a hit, and a stinging indictment of Russian air defense.

 

[suffolkowner]

Like the old commercial used to say, reach out and touch someone ....

Ukrainian drones strike Russian strategic bomber at Olenya airfield, source says

Ukrainian reconnaissance drones struck a TU-22M3 long-range strategic bomber, a missile carrier, at the Olenya airfield in Russia on Saturday, 27 July.

www.pravda.com.ua

Ukraine Claims Attack On Murmansk Airfield, Notes Russian Helicopter Losses

Ukraine's military intelligence claimed on July 27 that its drones attacked the Olenya airfield in Russia's far northern Murmansk region, saying it struck a TU-22M3 strategic bomber. It also said that three Russian Army helicopters had been destroyed on Russian territory over the previous week.

www.rferl.org

Ukrainian drone hit Tu-22M3 bomber at Olenya airfield, intel report claims

Russia's war against Ukraine has for the first time hit back on the Arctic. A Tu-22M3 bomber at the Olenya airfield on the Kola Peninsula was Saturday morning hit by a drone, the Intelligence Service of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reports.

thebarentsobserver.com

Just to give you a bird's eye view of the distances involved (although who's to say it was launched from Ukraine?) ...
View attachment 86903

If true, that’s an absolute hell of a hit, and a stinging indictment of Russian air defense.

I would hope for more than one though. that is a hell of a distance. Slip some guys across the border from Finland?

 

[brihard]

I would hope for more than one though. that is a hell of a distance. Slip some guys across the border from Finland?

I doubt Ukraine would launch an attack from within NATO territory without consent. Lots of ways for that to go wrong. I have no idea of what Baltic shipping is like but I have to wonder whether it would be viable to launch a special op from Baltic waters?

Whatever the case may be, not our business to know how. Hopefully they do it again repeatedly. The Tu-22s are unquestionably legitimate targets wherever they can be hit. If Ukraine wanked to plonk some Russian naval vessels in Murmansk, that would be solid too.

 

[suffolkowner]

I doubt Ukraine would launch an attack from within NATO territory without consent. Lots of ways for that to go wrong. I have no idea of what Baltic shipping is like but I have to wonder whether it would be viable to launch a special op from Baltic waters?

Whatever the case may be, not our business to know how. Hopefully they do it again repeatedly. The Tu-22s are unquestionably legitimate targets wherever they can be hit. If Ukraine wanked to plonk some Russian naval vessels in Murmansk, that would be solid too.

was it decided that the Ukrainians did NS1 and 2?

 

[brihard]

was it decided that the Ukrainians did NS1 and 2?

No idea

 

[The Bread Guy]

... Slip some guys across the border from Finland?

I doubt Ukraine would launch an attack from within NATO territory without consent. Lots of ways for that to go wrong ...

We know there's caveats of all kinds on use of various equipment, but if this is true, they're also being enforced from some quite high levels in some cases ....

A mysterious plot prompts a rare call from Russia to the Pentagon

Russia’s defense minister said he needed to talk to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin about an alleged Ukrainian operation. What happened next remains murky.

www.japantimes.co.jp

Also archived here if previous link doesn't work.

 

[GK .Dundas]

We know there's caveats of all kinds on use of various equipment, but if this is true, they're also being enforced from some quite high levels in some cases ....

A mysterious plot prompts a rare call from Russia to the Pentagon

Russia’s defense minister said he needed to talk to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin about an alleged Ukrainian operation. What happened next remains murky.

www.japantimes.co.jp

Also archived here if previous link doesn't work.

I translate the article above as the current American administration want to micro manage its way to victory..,...