The War in Ukraine

[markppcli]

True, but if only half of the FPV take out an IFV or tank, hell even if only 1 does, the total cost is still less than a Javelin shot and far less than the cist of the armor they just mission or hard killed. Economically a win.

Take a look at the number of missiles fired against low cost Houti drones and missiles, more than 350 air-to-surface weapons, mnd more than 50 air-to-air missiles and more than 100 Standard and Tomahawk missiles. All to take out about 430 "targets". Care to add up the total value of all that US hardware vs the cost of all the Houti targets? The cost per kill exceeds the cost per target by a long shot. Not economically sustainable. Don't take my word for it, listen to experts like Perun.

Pentagon Chief Extends Deployment of Aircraft Carrier, Ships in the Red Sea as Houthi Attacks Go On

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin signed the order last week to extend the four ships' deployment for a second time, rather than bring the carrier, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, and its three warships home.

www.military.com

I think you need to take a listen to the War on the Rocks episode about Drones in Ukraine. A lot of those “drones destroys tank” videos are vehicles already damaged or disabled from ATGMs or artillery. In those cases the cost of the atgm must also be factored in. Even Perun will argue this, and the Houthis costs isn’t about dollar per target is about dollars spent to ensure shipping still happens.

 

[CBH99]

No mention of how the Abrams compare to the Challengers and various marks of Leopard.

I think some of the issues with the Abrams is that some of these beasts are old hulls...

Apparently a dense fog can be enough to short circuit some optics. American tanks, refurbished in Germany, with Ukranian labels stickered over everything.


I think it's been a combination of a steep learning curve on a whole whack of new kit & new tactics, adapting to adversary weapon systems and tactics that are new to all of us, and last minute changes to long planned operations that are very much to the detriment of those same operations.

Not to mention they are facing a numerically superior enemy & the ever present phenomenon of all things drone - something no country has ever had to deal with before (minus Armenia getting it's butt whooped a few years ago because of the generous use of drones by Azerbaijan)


The tanks are good tanks. The age of the hulls & their less than optimal employment are the banes of the Abrams in Ukraine thus far. (I think, anyway...)

I don't think the Leopard 2's and Challengers are faring all that much better, because honestly why would they be? None of them had any sort of APS installed, and an APS may save you from a hit or 2 but some of these armoured engagements have been total slug-fests

(Leopard 2 tanks employed by Turkey lit up like a Christmas tree when hit by modern ATGM's in Syria & Iraq. Their turrets didn't blow off like the T-72, but the crew hatches literally became incinerator...)

 

[CBH99]

True, but if only half of the FPV take out an IFV or tank, hell even if only 1 does, the total cost is still less than a Javelin shot and far less than the cist of the armor they just mission or hard killed. Economically a win.

Take a look at the number of missiles fired against low cost Houti drones and missiles, more than 350 air-to-surface weapons, mnd more than 50 air-to-air missiles and more than 100 Standard and Tomahawk missiles. All to take out about 430 "targets". Care to add up the total value of all that US hardware vs the cost of all the Houti targets? The cost per kill exceeds the cost per target by a long shot. Not economically sustainable. Don't take my word for it, listen to experts like Perun.

Pentagon Chief Extends Deployment of Aircraft Carrier, Ships in the Red Sea as Houthi Attacks Go On

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin signed the order last week to extend the four ships' deployment for a second time, rather than bring the carrier, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, and its three warships home.

www.military.com

Oh no, you are 100% right

Taking out a commercially available drone that be bought online for a few hundred bucks with a missile that costs $200,000+ is a losing game...

The real question is how much are countries willing to lose how many dollars before they finally figure that out?


The Stryker SHORAD vehicle with the laser installed has had less than stellar reviews by the units who have field trialled them, but I suspect the complaints have mostly had to do with the power of the laser. As more powerful lasers get fielded, those SHORAD teams should see much more success...but that's an Army problem (was thinking in the context of the Ukranian theater)

In the naval context, getting those 350mw lasers installed onto more ships needs to happen asap - with the same urgency put on fielding more powerful lasers.

If the 4 ships the US had countering this problem all had a DEW of 350mw or more, the cost savings to the US taxpayer would be astronomical.

 

[markppcli]

Oh no, you are 100% right

Taking out a commercially available drone that be bought online for a few hundred bucks with a missile that costs $200,000+ is a losing game...

The real question is how much are countries willing to lose how many dollars before they finally figure that out?


The Stryker SHORAD vehicle with the laser installed has had less than stellar reviews by the units who have field trialled them, but I suspect the complaints have mostly had to do with the power of the laser. As more powerful lasers get fielded, those SHORAD teams should see much more success...but that's an Army problem (was thinking in the context of the Ukranian theater)

In the naval context, getting those 350mw lasers installed onto more ships needs to happen asap - with the same urgency put on fielding more powerful lasers.

If the 4 ships the US had countering this problem all had a DEW of 350mw or more, the cost savings to the US taxpayer would be astronomical.

I think see the targets as just the drones vs the launching apparatus and operators is an issue as well

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Some talk about the loss of M1's over there

 

[ueo]

Apparently Ukrainian special forces have been operating in Syria since the beginning of the year and alongside Syrian opposition forces have been conducting attacks on Russian positions in the Golan Heights.

Ukrainian special forces strike Russian positions in Syria

The Kyiv Post has published exclusive footage revealing Ukrainian special forces, alongside Syrian opposition fighters, conducting attacks on Russian military positions in the Golan Heights region of Syria. The video captures the Ukrainian unit “Khimik” targeting Russian block posts...

defence-blog.com

Previously there were reports of Ukrainian troops operating in Africa (South Sudan in particular) against Wagner PMC forces. I wonder where else they are operating?

Russian positions in the Golan. pls cite your source(s) If true, do the Israelies know about this?

 

[GR66]

Russian positions in the Golan. pls cite your source(s) If true, do the Israelies know about this?

My source is the first line in the linked article from the Kyiv Post.

An exclusive video obtained by the Kyiv Post shows Ukrainian special forces attacking enemy checkpoints, strongholds, foot patrols, and convoys of military vehicles in the Golan Heights in Syria.

From Wikipedia:

Since the Six-Day War of 1967, the western two-thirds of the Golan Heights has been occupied and administered by Israel,[1][2] whereas the eastern third remains under the control of Syria.

And I'm pretty sure the Israelis will have a clear idea of what's on the Syrian side of the border.

 

[McG]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1797927162231783847

 

[Maxman1]

Former top US Army general in Europe calls Ukrainian complaints about the M1 Abrams tank 'BS'

Mark Hertling, a retired US Army general and a former tanker, pushed back on the claims that the Abrams is problematic.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[daftandbarmy]

Rubble report....

What Ukraine Has Lost​

Few countries since World War II have experienced this level of devastation. But it’s been impossible for anybody to see more than glimpses of it. It’s too vast. Every battle, every bombing, every missile strike, every house burned down, has left its mark across multiple front lines, back and forth over more than two years.

This is the first comprehensive picture of where the Ukraine war has been fought and the totality of the destruction. Using detailed analysis of years of satellite data, we developed a record of each town, each street, each building that has been blown apart.

The scale is hard to comprehend. More buildings have been destroyed in Ukraine than if every building in Manhattan were to be leveled four times over. Parts of Ukraine hundreds of miles apart look like Dresden or London after World War II, or Gaza after half a year of bombardment.

To produce these estimates, The New York Times worked with two leading remote sensing scientists, Corey Scher of the City University of New York Graduate Center and Jamon Van Den Hoek of Oregon State University, to analyze data from radar satellites that can detect small changes in the built environment.

What Ukraine Has Lost

We measured every town, street and building blown apart in Ukraine to show the first comprehensive picture of where people can’t return home.

www.nytimes.com

 

[CBH99]

If Ukranian special forces are indeed operating in Syria against the Russians...

- That's impressive. The Ukranians can reach out and touch situations further away than most would expect

(I believe it was Ukranian SF that were the first to go outside the wire to retrieve people during the Afghan withdrawal...)


- I imagine the Russians have a pretty accurate picture of any/all flights leaving from Ukraine, military or civilian. The logistics of how Ukranian SF even got to Syria will be fascinating (to me, anyway)


- Assuming the Ukranian SF had western help in leaving the country undetected (Although it could have been as simple as having Poland facilitate via a land crossing) it's curious to see just how much the west can push while still claiming it's a war by proxy

 

[Czech_pivo]

If Ukranian special forces are indeed operating in Syria against the Russians...

- That's impressive. The Ukranians can reach out and touch situations further away than most would expect

(I believe it was Ukranian SF that were the first to go outside the wire to retrieve people during the Afghan withdrawal...)


- I imagine the Russians have a pretty accurate picture of any/all flights leaving from Ukraine, military or civilian. The logistics of how Ukranian SF even got to Syria will be fascinating (to me, anyway)


- Assuming the Ukranian SF had western help in leaving the country undetected (Although it could have been as simple as having Poland facilitate via a land crossing) it's curious to see just how much the west can push while still claiming it's a war by proxy

I'm pretty sure that few, if any flights are leaving Ukraine. More than likely the Ukrainian SF's left via Poland. I've got little doubt that the Poles would gleefully welcome the chance to help poke the Russian Bear in the eye in other parts of the world.

 

[KevinB]

I'm pretty sure that few, if any flights are leaving Ukraine. More than likely the Ukrainian SF's left via Poland. I've got little doubt that the Poles would gleefully welcome the chance to help poke the Russian Bear in the eye in other parts of the world.

Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Italy, France, you got a pretty decent lineup in Europe that would love to help shaft Russia

 

[Czech_pivo]

Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Italy, France, you got a pretty decent lineup in Europe that would love to help shaft Russia

Oh, I agree, I just imagine that the Ukkie's will more than likely exit the country via Poland and quite possibly stage directly out of Poland.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Former top US Army general in Europe calls Ukrainian complaints about the M1 Abrams tank 'BS'

Mark Hertling, a retired US Army general and a former tanker, pushed back on the claims that the Abrams is problematic.

www.businessinsider.com

Problem is that it, like all Western tanks were designed to face a very different threat mix. Some of the things that make it survivable, also build in weaknesses. No tank is strong everywhere. I bet the Boffins in the US are feverously working on counter measures. The next tank design is going to have to give up some protection from kinetic threats, in order to protect from the newer top down threats.

 

[NavyShooter]

How about a mini CIWS for tanks?

No need for a 20mm, try some .22 rimfire. Massive magazine capacity, provides close in lethal protection...you could network them if you laager tanks together and provide a 'safe zone' in laager....

Jumping back in history to the "Hammers Slammers" tanks and their 'tribarrel' guns from the David Drake books of the 80/90s.

 

[Maxman1]

How about a mini CIWS for tanks?

No need for a 20mm, try some .22 rimfire. Massive magazine capacity, provides close in lethal protection...you could network them if you laager tanks together and provide a 'safe zone' in laager....

Jumping back in history to the "Hammers Slammers" tanks and their 'tribarrel' guns from the David Drake books of the 80/90s.

 

[GR66]

How about a mini CIWS for tanks?

No need for a 20mm, try some .22 rimfire. Massive magazine capacity, provides close in lethal protection...you could network them if you laager tanks together and provide a 'safe zone' in laager....

Jumping back in history to the "Hammers Slammers" tanks and their 'tribarrel' guns from the David Drake books of the 80/90s.

From one of the articles on the planned M1E3 Abrams:

The M1E3 will also have an integrated active protection system “that’s part and parcel to the vehicle survivability, profile and design. That’s one of the things that we know absolutely will be integral to the program,” Norman said.

 

[Skysix]

Oh, I agree, I just imagine that the Ukkie's will more than likely exit the country via Poland and quite possibly stage directly out of Poland.

Hopefully they will move some marine drones there and go after Russian naval assets in Koningsberg.

 

[daftandbarmy]

How about a mini CIWS for tanks?

No need for a 20mm, try some .22 rimfire. Massive magazine capacity, provides close in lethal protection...you could network them if you laager tanks together and provide a 'safe zone' in laager....

Jumping back in history to the "Hammers Slammers" tanks and their 'tribarrel' guns from the David Drake books of the 80/90s.