The War in Ukraine

[lenaitch]

There is one company in canada for explosive filler, why many of these companies arent scaling up idk, maybe they dont have access to the capital. Perhaps we need a critical defense industry loan program, super low interest loans from the government for the upgrade and expansion of critical industries like munitions production.

Methinks the government is quite happy to run the CAF's cupboard dry then say 'oopsie; how did that happen. We should think about forming a government committee to look into it'.

Or;
convince SNC or BBD to start up a bold new business venture.

 

[Spencer100]

There is one company in canada for explosive filler, why many of these companies arent scaling up idk, maybe they dont have access to the capital. Perhaps we need a critical defense industry loan program, super low interest loans from the government for the upgrade and expansion of critical industries like munitions production.

Because there is talk and then there are real PO's.

Real PO's that will get paid gets you real companies that make real things. You give me a real PO I will find the capital, resources, etc.

But the problem is getting to a PO.

The procurement systems in Canada and really all the west are not really created to deliver a product or result most people are think they are to do. The real result is deliver a political favorable outcome after the first rule of bureaucracy is satisficed. (the first rule of the bureaucracy is to protect and grow the bureaucracy) Getting product or service for an end user is by product of the process not a goal in itself.

 

[Kirkhill]

Because there is talk and then there are real PO's.

Real PO's that will get paid gets you real companies that make real things. You give me a real PO I will find the capital, resources, etc.

But the problem is getting to a PO.

The procurement systems in Canada and really all the west are not really created to deliver a product or result most people are think they are to do. The real result is deliver a political favorable outcome after the first rule of bureaucracy is satisficed. (the first rule of the bureaucracy is to protect and grow the bureaucracy) Getting product or service for an end user is by product of the process not a goal in itself.

Somebody has to want to spend money.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Can a mortar dude explain this to me? Apologies for the FB link.
I can see they have at least 2 charges on the round. He drops it in the tube, it doesn’t fire until the chain is pulled. If the firing pin on a charged primer? How common is that?

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[KevinB]

Can a mortar dude explain this to me? Apologies for the FB link.
I can see they have at least 2 charges on the round. He drops it in the tube, it doesn’t fire until the chain is pulled. If the firing pin on a charged primer? How common is that?

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I suspect it’s not in drop fire mode - so it’s trigger/lanyard fired. Many Mortars can do both modes.

 

[McG]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1763866642541351405

 

[GR66]

Bill Blair has announced that "Canada is open to sending nontactical units to train Ukrainian troops within Ukraine, so long as such an operation took place far from the front lines."

Following France, Canada announced the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine

Canada is open to sending nontactical units to train Ukrainian troops within Ukraine, so long as such an operation took place far from the front lines

mil.in.ua

Presumably we'd deploy our AD units to protect our trainers from Russian missile and drone attacks.

Killing NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine would be an internal propaganda win for Putin and would reinforce his claims that he is fighting NATO not Ukraine. I also seriously doubt the loss of Canadian lives in Ukraine would trigger any type of NATO military response.

I also wonder what the ROE would be for Canadian troops if for example Spetsnaz troops were to attack a training base? Would our trainers be armed and carrying live ammo? What would the political ramifications be of Canadian troops engaging Russian forces directly in defence of a Ukrainian military facility?

Thank God our government is taking the global situation seriously and is rapidly ramping up our military capability to face a potential conflict!

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Can a mortar dude explain this to me? Apologies for the FB link.
I can see they have at least 2 charges on the round. He drops it in the tube, it doesn’t fire until the chain is pulled. If the firing pin on a charged primer? How common is that?

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@KevinB is correct. You can see them checking their adjustment before they engage the firing pin with the chain.

The 60mm had a trigger at the bottom of the tube just above the base plate. You can see this soldiers hand positioned where the trigger is.

The reason the 60mm Mortar has a trigger is so it can be used without a baseplate to accompany Infantry on the assault.

A 120mm is obviously too big for this purpose, unless its vehicle mounted. I have zero experience with anything heavier than 60mm.

I think the entire reason they are engaging the firing pin with a lanyard vs drop fire is so they can make adjustments. It looks like they only have one gun so they are trying to be as precise as possible.

 

[KevinB]

Bill Blair has announced that "Canada is open to sending nontactical units to train Ukrainian troops within Ukraine, so long as such an operation took place far from the front lines."

Following France, Canada announced the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine

Canada is open to sending nontactical units to train Ukrainian troops within Ukraine, so long as such an operation took place far from the front lines

mil.in.ua

Presumably we'd deploy our AD units to protect our trainers from Russian missile and drone attacks.

Lol.

Killing NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine would be an internal propaganda win for Putin and would reinforce his claims that he is fighting NATO not Ukraine.

Putin isn’t crazy in that respect he’s already blustering about nuclear weapons if NATO moves into Ukraine.

I also seriously doubt the loss of Canadian lives in Ukraine would trigger any type of NATO military response.

Poland says hold my beer.

I also wonder what the ROE would be for Canadian troops if for example Spetsnaz troops were to attack a training base?

All ROE have a right to self defense.

Would our trainers be armed and carrying live ammo?

I’m sure there would be certain force protection measures in place, but the RuAF doesn’t have the capability to conduct ops in the Western areas of Ukraine

What would the political ramifications be of Canadian troops engaging Russian forces directly in defence of a Ukrainian military facility?

Let’s be honest, Canada wouldn’t do this alone. As well in the extremely unlikely event this occurred, it would be troops exercising their self defense rights.

Thank God our government is taking the global situation seriously and is rapidly ramping up our military capability to face a potential conflict!

Lol

 

[Skysix]

The first rule of the bureaucracy is to protect and grow the bureaucracy

Sounds like there are at least 2 other Rules of Bureaucracy out there ... Asimov style

 

[Skysix]

So would a deployment of the French Foreign Legion to secure the border of Moldova (freeing up troops to go elsewhere) count as "NATO" boots on the ground?

Pretty sure if the FFL did so and Putin got "frisky' that front would be concluded fairly quickly. Garrison troops vs professionals, even if they did decide to release all their ex-Ukrainians back to Ukraine to fight and held back their ex-Russians in France

Given that the Russians are now at step 2 or 3 of their hybrid war playbook (target area puppet government requests Russian 'protection') it might behoove Moldova to request the FFL (or some other foreign power besides Ukraine) to help with "internal security"

Because the signs are that Russia is setting up for sn infowar and distraction event in Transmission to draw western eyes off them and Ukrainian troops away from the N, E, and S fronts.

 

[Skysix]

Possibly by sending some 'disposable' air assets to reduce pressure on their Air Force in the other fronts and allow for glide bomb CAS etc. by attracting the alleged guerilla Patriot battery. (I still think some of the shootdowns are from a 4-ship of F16's with long range missiles out on "training" flights with their first pair of combat experienced converted pilots and a couple of new grads)

 

[GR66]

Lol.

Canadian max-flex. At least we didn't "whip out our CF-18's and show them how big they are"

Putin isn’t crazy in that respect he’s already blustering about nuclear weapons if NATO moves into Ukraine.

A Ukrainian military training facility would be a legitimate military target for Russia (as legitimate as a target can be in a 100% illegal war). Would Canadian trainers killed/wounded as collateral damage in a strike on the facility be legally considered as combatants?

Poland says hold my beer.

Would Poland/the Baltic States, Finland/Sweden/Norway really risk an escalation to direct conflict with Russia because a couple of Canadian soldiers - knowingly put in harms way - were killed in an air strike?

All ROE have a right to self defense.

I’m sure there would be certain force protection measures in place, but the RuAF doesn’t have the capability to conduct ops in the Western areas of Ukraine

Russian missiles/drones have the capability of striking anywhere in Ukraine. It wouldn't even have to be a traditional military strike. Not all Ukrainians are pro-West and I'm sure that the FSB still has some assets keeping an eye on things in Western Ukraine. It could be something like a drive-by shooting or an IED at a cafe frequented by foreign trainers.

Let’s be honest, Canada wouldn’t do this alone. As well in the extremely unlikely event this occurred, it would be troops exercising their self defense rights.

Agreed. This sounds much more like a flex to show Putin that NATO's resolve is strong (despite wavering voices coming from the USA) and that we'll support Ukraine until eventual victory.

 

[Skysix]

Forget about driving fast enough to outrun a FPV drone . .

 

[Eaglelord17]

There is one company in canada for explosive filler, why many of these companies arent scaling up idk, maybe they dont have access to the capital. Perhaps we need a critical defense industry loan program, super low interest loans from the government for the upgrade and expansion of critical industries like munitions production.

No money in the long term. All you need to do is some light research into firearms companies throughout the world wars to understand.

Basic summary of the American civilian arms manufacturers in WWI. Made tons of guns for several countries during the war. Lots of money to be had. The taps turned off immediately once the war ended and if it wasn’t for the American government bailing out those companies they would have gone under.

Unless there is a long term stable ordering plan (i.e. guaranteed contracts, or huge penalties for not following through) the risk for the companies are huge. You could be ramping up one day, war over the next, and you never made any profit off your expenditures.

Just look at how wishy washy the US is at the moment. Initially it was we must support Ukraine, but with limited equipment. Slowly they have ramped up supply, now its back to basically no support. This is all over a two year period.

It takes time to ramp up production, manufacture the facilities and machinery needed, and start producing. Realistically if they had started when the war began they might be ramped up now, when the US isn’t supporting nearly as much.

 

[GR66]

This opinion piece from USNI's Proceedings suggesting the the US Replicator program which is seeking to mass produce low cost, small UAV's like those being used extensively in Ukraine is the wrong approach.

Replicate Ordnance, Not Cheap Drones

General Prize Essay Contest—First Prize. Sponsored by Andrew and Barbara Taylor. Drones won’t offset China’s growing military, but more weapons could.

www.usni.org

The author suggests that these platforms, while generating some tactical success as part of a combined arms basket of weapons are diverting funding from weapon systems that have the ability to deliver strategic success.

He focuses particularly on the Pacific theatre where he says that the types of UAVs used in Ukraine - where the average engagement range is around 7 miles - makes these types of platforms unsuitable. He does however agree that large volumes of cheap UAV's, USV's and UUV's would be useful by Taiwan should PLA forces actually reach the shorline in an invasion.

He suggests that focusing on producing a mass of higher end weapons like the Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM), heavier kamikaze USVs and XLUUVs equipped with advanced sea mines would be a better solution.

Extrapolating this to Ukraine it might suggest that building up large stocks of Precision Strike Missiles, ground attack cruise missiles, long range AAM's and ASM's would have a greater strategic affect on a war with Russia than masses of the small drones being used currently in Ukraine.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

People forget that Taiwan has to think both long and short range at the same time. The Initial assault on Taiwan territories will be on the near mainland islands, very much in the same range band as Ukraine is. I suspect that every solider guarding those islands know they are on their own and will likley die or be capture in place. FPV drones will be quite important to maximise the damage to the simultaneous massive air mobile and amphibious assaults on those islands. The unknown here, is what lessons have the Chinese learned from Ukraine on the EW front and how will they use them, if at all? Taiwan only hope is to make those initial assaults so bloody that the PLA/PLAN/PLAAF wavers at the idea of assaulting the main island directly.

 

[ueo]

Bill Blair has announced that "Canada is open to sending nontactical units to train Ukrainian troops within Ukraine, so long as such an operation took place far from the front lines."

Following France, Canada announced the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine

Canada is open to sending nontactical units to train Ukrainian troops within Ukraine, so long as such an operation took place far from the front lines

mil.in.ua

Presumably we'd deploy our AD units to protect our trainers from Russian missile and drone attacks.

Killing NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine would be an internal propaganda win for Putin and would reinforce his claims that he is fighting NATO not Ukraine. I also seriously doubt the loss of Canadian lives in Ukraine would trigger any type of NATO military response.

I also wonder what the ROE would be for Canadian troops if for example Spetsnaz troops were to attack a training base? Would our trainers be armed and carrying live ammo? What would the political ramifications be of Canadian troops engaging Russian forces directly in defence of a Ukrainian military facility?

Thank God our government is taking the global situation seriously and is rapidly ramping up our military capability to face a potential conflict!

5 rds in amag in a pocket, Shades of Cyprus.

 

[McG]

Bill Blair has announced that "Canada is open to sending nontactical units to train Ukrainian troops within Ukraine, so long as such an operation took place far from the front lines."

The main UNIFIER hub prior to 2022 was almost on the Polish border, yet it still got hit by Russian missiles when it was hosting the constitution of the foreign battalions. You can see burning Canadian RTC in photos & video from after the strike.

A Ukrainian military training facility would be a legitimate military target for Russia (as legitimate as a target can be in a 100% illegal war). Would Canadian trainers killed/wounded as collateral damage in a strike on the facility be legally considered as combatants?

Doesn’t matter if the troops are a considered combatants when they are killed while providing the core function of a legitimate military target in Ukraine. The law will say they are either part of the legitimate target, or proportional collateral damage.

 

[McG]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1764245317283668041