The War in Ukraine

[rmc_wannabe]

Anything that can be said about the Russian population can be said, in more somber terms, about the Ukrainian population.

While this is unfortunately correct, I somehow see Russia having a harder time bouncing back from this than Ukraine.

People like to shit all over Italy's performance in WWII, completely overlooking the fact the war started for them in 1923 with the Corfu incident and pretty much went non-stop til the end of the war in 1945. By the time the Allies landed in Sicily, there was no equipment, personnel, or industry left to sustain a war.

I see Russia going down this path if the war keeps moving at the pace its going. I certainly don't see them going toe-to-toe with NATO in their current state, but Vlad seems to think he can rattle that sabre.

 

[suffolkowner]

Does it matter? Do we care? In the end Ukraine is a tool to beat the Russian beat with. Russia demographics right now are something like 2 deaths for every birth. If it costs 1 Ukrainian for every 2 Russians well its still 1 less Canadian that needs to be sacrificed either now or in the future. Dont get me wrong I wish none of this was happening and that support for Ukraine was greater so their cost was not so great

 

[NavyShooter]

In the end, I don't think the war in Ukraine really matters much. The next big one will be in the Pacific.

That said, demolishing the Russian reserve stocks of war material while testing western war technologies in a space that does not result in NATO deaths is...well...not a bad place to be in.

I would hope that many lessons are being drawn in.

As a supplement, it changes the 'combat calculus' for China. If they look North and West, and see a big area that is mostly undefended, and Russia has no reserve warstocks...then...well...instead of China heading East and South, they may just choose to go North and West instead.

 

[DBNSG]

Does it matter? Do we care? In the end Ukraine is a tool to beat the Russian beat with. Russia demographics right now are something like 2 deaths for every birth. If it costs 1 Ukrainian for every 2 Russians well its still 1 less Canadian that needs to be sacrificed either now or in the future. Dont get me wrong I wish none of this was happening and that support for Ukraine was greater so their cost was not so great

It would seem from some estimates that the Ukrainians are taking far more that 2-1 in Russian lives. Lucky for Putin though not many from Moscow or St Pete's . The cold one.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

In the end, I don't think the war in Ukraine really matters much. The next big one will be in the Pacific.

That said, demolishing the Russian reserve stocks of war material while testing western war technologies in a space that does not result in NATO deaths is...well...not a bad place to be in.

I would hope that many lessons are being drawn in.

As a supplement, it changes the 'combat calculus' for China. If they look North and West, and see a big area that is mostly undefended, and Russia has no reserve warstocks...then...well...instead of China heading East and South, they may just choose to go North and West instead.

In my opinion, what happens in Ukraine will influence what happens in the Pacific, ME and Africa. They are all watching the West to see how much resolve we have. I also think it has shaken the CCP who are likley worried their PLA will perform just as poorly and likley delayed any invasions of the minor islands for the next couple of years.

 

[GR66]

In my opinion, what happens in Ukraine will influence what happens in the Pacific, ME and Africa. They are all watching the West to see how much resolve we have. I also think it has shaken the CCP who are likley worried their PLA will perform just as poorly and likley delayed any invasions of the minor islands for the next couple of years.

I'm not sure I'm convinced of the highlighted part. I don't think that the CCP leadership holds the Russians in very high regard and in their hubris may assume that of course the PLAN will perform much better than the Russians.

I do agree that China will be watching very closely to see the West's resolve but there are a couple of factors that make the Taiwan situation different than that in Ukraine:

1. Taiwan is the major high-end chip producer. The US is blocking China from that technology. This makes Taiwan much more strategically important to both the US and China than Ukraine is to NATO.
2. In Europe Russia is facing a strong block of Western powers under the umbrella of NATO and this seriously limits Russia's ability to act as freely as it would like in securing what it sees as its strategic objectives. China on the other hand faces a mix of potentially opposing nations that are not as unified as NATO and have varying degrees of reliance upon China as a driver of their economies. The US is working on changing this through organizations such as AUKUS and The Quad and China may feel it needs to act before these alliances solidify and/or nations begin to decouple their economies from that of China.
3. China is facing a looming demographic crisis. It's total population is expected to fall to 525 million from the present 1.4 billion by 2100 and it's working age population to fall to 1/5 its 2014 peak in the same timeframe. By comparison the population of the US is forecast to increase by 22 million to 366 million by 2100. This critical decline in the Chinese population may push the CCP to act sooner rather then later.
4. An unintended consequence of the Ukraine War is that nations around the World have realized that they are not militarily prepared to fight a major conflict. As a result we're seeing increases in defence budgets around the World (Canada excepted of course ). As the militaries potentially opposing China recapitalize and increase their warfighting capabilities it may become more difficult for China to take Taiwan the longer they wait.

[Edited for a couple of sentences with missing words]

 

[NavyShooter]

An unintended consequence of the Ukraine War is that nations around the World have realized that they are not militarily prepared to fight a major conflict. As a result we're seeing defence budgets around the World (Canada excepted of course ). As the militaries potentially opposing China recapitalize and increase their warfighting capabilities it may become more difficult for China to take Taiwan the longer they wait.

Which is why I'm thinking that in the near term, the Chinese may simply push north and west instead of out to Taiwan.

The N/W route becomes much simpler once the Russian Bear is not just distracted, but also de-clawed by NATO.

 

[GR66]

Which is why I'm thinking that in the near term, the Chinese may simply push north and west instead of out to Taiwan.

The N/W route becomes much simpler once the Russian Bear is not just distracted, but also de-clawed by NATO.

The only thing that makes me question that is the fact that Russia has nuclear weapons. Taiwan does not.

 

[suffolkowner]

Which is why I'm thinking that in the near term, the Chinese may simply push north and west instead of out to Taiwan.

The N/W route becomes much simpler once the Russian Bear is not just distracted, but also de-clawed by NATO.

reunite Mongolia as a test run?

 

[Skysix]

After a brainstorming/game theory session, one of the more 'controversial theoretical actions Russia could take over the next generation or two was very Handmaiden-esque but plausible.

Russia has stolen/kidnapped a lot of Ukrainian children and is already brainwashing them. Schools are inculcating a belief that their highest purpose is to serve the state (aka indoctrination into the Russkiy Mir). Their demographics suck and are getting worse over essentially the same period as their weapons and ammunition will be rebuilt and modernize (the current war economy will likely continue at least for the rest of the decade). Putin's government has already stated that all good Russian women should start having kids at 18 and continue until they have had (on average? all individually?) 8 children - snd even established a fund to financially assist families with third and subsequent kids.

So assuming most of the male kidnapped currently still children end up enlisting or being conscripted into the military, it is far from inconceivable that the females, especially those not fostered out, will be used as 'breeders' to increase the number of Slavic/non-asian "ethnic Russians". This would simultaneously offset the rising non-ethnic Russian population (particularly in the east) and start to refill the demographic pyramid with both more conscripts and more breeders in time for the next phase of reacquiring the lands belonging to the USSR 2.0

If of course the west is stupid/short sighted/manipulated enough not to ensure that Russia is so soundly beaten that their belief in the ordained superiority of Russian speaking peoples (a core belief/precept of the Russkiy Mir) is irrevocably broken.

 

[Skysix]

As an explainer as it is not well understood in the west, the Russkiy Mir (the Russian Order) often translated as the Russian World, is a form of religious fundamentalism that is totalitarian in character. Its followers define it as an ideology that embraces a common civilisational space founded on three pillars: the Eastern Orthodox religion, Russian culture and especially the language, a common historical memory, and a connected common vision on further social development

This is as much a slavophillic cult as it is the philosophy underlying the formation of a reborn Russian homeland. It centers around the concept that those who speak Russian come to think Russian, and eventually to act Russian and is used as a justification for projecting Russian power. Its divinely given purpose is to unite the Russian people within a single state.

It includes the belief that God has chosen Russians to purify and save the rest of the world (with the concurrent belief that all who are not Russian are non-people/non-humans who are doomed to never ascend to heaven and thus killing them is justified as they are inherently evil). It also requires its adherents to the building of a "Holy Rus" region centered around the old Muscovy.

Core tenets are respect for Russia’s Tsarist Orthodox past and its territories, misogynistic views about its society (that are portrayed as 'traditional values') and a reverence for the Soviet defeat of nazism/fascism in the Second World War. It incorporates social Darwinism, fervent anti-semitism, ethnic racism, white supremacy, Nordicism, dictatorial governance and the use of ethnic cleansing/eugenics into its creed.

 

[Kirkhill]

In my opinion, what happens in Ukraine will influence what happens in the Pacific, ME and Africa. They are all watching the West to see how much resolve we have. I also think it has shaken the CCP who are likley worried their PLA will perform just as poorly and likley delayed any invasions of the minor islands for the next couple of years.

It will also be having an impact with the people facing the CCP. They will be looking at their own resources rather than relying on foreign saviours.

Taiwan has fewer people than Ukraine, but it also has a smaller area to defend. It also is, collectively, 4 times wealthier than Ukraine and individually 8 times wealthier. They have more disposable wealth and a predilection for highly automated solutions. Likewise for South Korea and Japan.

Big armies are not going to serve China particularly well if it can't get them onto the island.

 

[KevinB]

I'm not sure I'm convinced of the highlighted part. I don't think that the CCP leadership holds the Russians in very high regard and in their hubris may assume that of course the PLAN will perform much better than the Russians.

I do agree that China will be watching very closely to see the West's resolve but there are a couple of factors that make the Taiwan situation different than that in Ukraine:

1. Taiwan is the major high-end chip producer. The US is blocking China from that technology. This makes Taiwan much more strategically important to both the US and China than Ukraine is to NATO.
2. In Europe Russia is facing a strong block of Western powers under the umbrella of NATO and this seriously limits Russia's ability to act as freely as it would like in securing what it sees as its strategic objectives. China on the other hand faces a mix of potentially opposing nations that are not as unified as NATO and have varying degrees of reliance upon China as a driver of their economies. The US is working on changing this through organizations such as AUKUS and The Quad and China may feel it needs to act before these alliances solidify and/or nations begin to decouple their economies from that of China.
3. China is facing a looming demographic crisis. It's total population is expected to fall to 525 million from the present 1.4 billion by 2100 and it's working age population to fall to 1/5 its 2014 peak in the same timeframe. By comparison the population of the US is forecast to increase by 22 million to 366 million by 2100. This critical decline in the Chinese population may push the CCP to act sooner rather then later.
4. An unintended consequence of the Ukraine War is that nations around the World have realized that they are not militarily prepared to fight a major conflict. As a result we're seeing increases in defence budgets around the World (Canada excepted of course ). As the militaries potentially opposing China recapitalize and increase their warfighting capabilities it may become more difficult for China to take Taiwan the longer they wait.

[Edited for a couple of sentences with missing words]

The Chinese saw how Western missiles worked - and I believe they also are fairly aware they have never done an amphibious or airborne forced entry.

As long as the Weet doesn’t give up on Ukraine (mainly the US in this instance) the CCP are going to continue looking to the long game.

 

[GR66]

The Chinese saw how Western missiles worked - and I believe they also are fairly aware they have never done an amphibious or airborne forced entry.

As long as the Weet doesn’t give up on Ukraine (mainly the US in this instance) the CCP are going to continue looking to the long game.

The Chinese "long game" isn't looking particularly promising these days (demographics, economy). Also it assumes that President Xi is willing to leave it to his successor to achieve reunification with Taiwan. Ego can trump logic at times.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

It will also be having an impact with the people facing the CCP. They will be looking at their own resources rather than relying on foreign saviours.

Taiwan has fewer people than Ukraine, but it also has a smaller area to defend. It also is, collectively, 4 times wealthier than Ukraine and individually 8 times wealthier. They have more disposable wealth and a predilection for highly automated solutions. Likewise for South Korea and Japan.

Big armies are not going to serve China particularly well if it can't get them onto the island.

Taiwan is likley going to lose a number of the islands close to the mainland in the next few years. They are impossible to defend and very much in the reach of the Chinese forces. We also know that we are not going to war over those islands and likley are unable to sanction China in any measurable way if they do. Technically if they occupy it I believe that they are still part of China? Just a different political structure.

 

[GR66]

According to the Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense Russia has significantly increased the rate of it's glide-bomb attacks on Ukrainian positions (reportedly a 16-fold increase over last year) and these large bombs which can create a crater 15m wide are inflicting severe damage on Ukrainian positions. Dwindling ammo reserves for certain systems is cited as one of the major challenges.

Russia intensifies air assault strikes in Ukraine

Russian combat aircraft have increased their bombing campaign, with over 3,500 bombs dropped on Ukrainian positions since the start of this year, according to Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense, Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk. Havryliuk said in an interview with the Ukrinform news agency...

defence-blog.com

 

[MilEME09]

I see the russians do not have a very good understanding of recovery techniques. Two BREM-1M's (T72 based) ARV's used to straight pull a Leopard 2 in order to salvage and capture it. Both are then lost to FPV drones as Ukrainian forces prevent the tanks capture.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770119420959961109

 

[Czech_pivo]

Taiwan is likley going to lose a number of the islands close to the mainland in the next few years. They are impossible to defend and very much in the reach of the Chinese forces. We also know that we are not going to war over those islands and likley are unable to sanction China in any measurable way if they do. Technically if they occupy it I believe that they are still part of China? Just a different political structure.

If that happens - look to NK to use it as a way of stirring the pot with SK and making a similar move on a SK island or two in a similar geographic situation.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Moar announcements from the DND info-machine (highlights mine) ....

Minister Blair announces $40 million to provide Ukraine with artillery ammunition at the 20th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group - Canada.ca

Today, the Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, participated via videoconference in the 20th Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) meeting, hosted by United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III.

www.canada.ca

... Minister Blair announced that Canada is committing over $40 million to Czechia’s initiative to purchase large-calibre ammunition rounds for Ukraine. This will enable the delivery of several thousand rounds of artillery ammunition to Ukraine. This commitment follows last month’s signing of the Canada-Czechia Defence Cooperation Memorandum of Understanding, which establishes a framework for defence cooperation between Canada and Czechia, including in the area of support for Ukraine.

In addition, Minister Blair announced that Canada will be donating a package of night vision devices to assist Ukrainian Armed Forces with nighttime operations. This donation, worth approximately $7.5 million, will be sourced from Canadian company Twenty20 Insight Inc.

Minister Blair also confirmed that Canada has officially joined the UDCG’s Drone Capability Coalition co-led by Latvia and the United Kingdom, as Canada committed earlier this month ...

Also archived here if original link doesn't work.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Moar announcements from the DND info-machine (highlights mine) ....

Minister Blair announces $40 million to provide Ukraine with artillery ammunition at the 20th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group - Canada.ca

Today, the Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, participated via videoconference in the 20th Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) meeting, hosted by United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III.

www.canada.ca

Also archived here if original link doesn't work.

Czech's said they need 1.5 billion for these shells and Canada comes to the table with 40 million - basically 1$ per Canadian.