The War in Ukraine
- Thread starter Bruce Monkhouse
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By Western Standards, Russia is in sovereign default. Of course, Putin has now proven that this doesn't matter and that the entire system is a sham.
My point stands that the Russian Economy is a lot larger than what is portrayed in the media. It's also geared towards providing the goods & services required to wage industrial war.
Take Steel Production for instance:
Annual production steel data
worldsteel.org
Russia is actually on par with the United States when it comes to Steel Production and it dwarfs its nearest European competitors. Russia was, up until the war in Ukraine, a large exporter of steel and the vast majority of it was being exported to the West.
The United States and Germany are actually the two biggest importers of Steel in the World. The US imports roughly 30% of their total Steel used each year. Germany (and Canada) import about 50% respectively.
Another indicator is sector weighting and it tells its own story:
All this to say, Russia might not have the Big Mac but they've got all the necessary resources and tools to make their own. Much of their industry is also defacto State controlled so it can be oriented on target accordingly.
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HB, I took your earlier post as a measure of Russia having economic clout trade wise, ack your detailed explanation above, that makes sense. Yes, Putin can certainly skew things internally (resulting in a 3.2+ PPP:Nominal ratio, much higher than lead pack of the G20), but it does serve to pump out production capacity within Russia that is used to feed his SMO-machine.
Interestingly, Russia’s Ag/Ind/Svc ratio is actually reasonably close to China (less a weaker Ag component)but that doesn’t translate into a strong Nominal-PPP ration (China in fact has an inverted PPP ratio, meaning it’s GDP is proportionately stronger international trade-wise than the US, which has the benchmark 1:1 ratio. This is Russia’s weakness, that aside from war production and the ability to destroy (which of course we shouldn’t downplay or ignore), it’s ability to project its GDP output internationally in trade is more than three times weaker than its internal consumption. I won’t be surprised to see its Nominal-PPP ration decline further in the years to come, and it’s GDP (either Nominal or PPP) Per Capita to continue to fall, which means its ability to destroy will weaken, not of course without great misery to Ukraine and the region.
Interestingly, Russia’s Ag/Ind/Svc ratio is actually reasonably close to China (less a weaker Ag component)but that doesn’t translate into a strong Nominal-PPP ration (China in fact has an inverted PPP ratio, meaning it’s GDP is proportionately stronger international trade-wise than the US, which has the benchmark 1:1 ratio. This is Russia’s weakness, that aside from war production and the ability to destroy (which of course we shouldn’t downplay or ignore), it’s ability to project its GDP output internationally in trade is more than three times weaker than its internal consumption. I won’t be surprised to see its Nominal-PPP ration decline further in the years to come, and it’s GDP (either Nominal or PPP) Per Capita to continue to fall, which means its ability to destroy will weaken, not of course without great misery to Ukraine and the region.
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But if we changed the dates and looked at the data from 1960 or 1980 or 2000 - Russia would be pretty much the exact same in proportion to the US. They've always had a had strong production aspect to their economy. Its the simple fact that they fail at such things as; efficiency/effective use of the goods they produce, corruption, transportation, ability to match 'producers with users', ability to produce what consumers want, quantity vs quality, etc.By Western Standards, Russia is in sovereign default. Of course, Putin has now proven that this doesn't matter and that the entire system is a sham.
My point stands that the Russian Economy is a lot larger than what is portrayed in the media. It's also geared towards providing the goods & services required to wage industrial war.
Take Steel Production for instance:
Annual production steel data
View attachment 87861
Russia is actually on par with the United States when it comes to Steel Production and it dwarfs its nearest European competitors. Russia was, up until the war in Ukraine, a large exporter of steel and the vast majority of it was being exported to the West.
The United States and Germany are actually the two biggest importers of Steel in the World. The US imports roughly 30% of their total Steel used each year. Germany (and Canada) import about 50% respectively.
Another indicator is sector weighting and it tells its own story:
View attachment 87862
All this to say, Russia might not have the Big Mac but they've got all the necessary resources and tools to make their own. Much of their industry is also defacto State controlled so it can be oriented on target accordingly.
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Like so many other economies controlled by their Governments. Read the book "Gun" by CJ Chivers that talks about the development and manufacture of the AK series of rifle. It covers all of this but also outlines why the Russian system is incredibly effective at churning out large amounts of weaponry.
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Oligarchs have to pay for their megayachts somehow. It’s not rocket science to know that a whole bunch of Russian GDP is being funneled to a few and doesn’t help the motherland whatsoever.
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…and megayachts…
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The biggest aspect that is often missed is the fact that the "butter" that Russia requires to "feed" themselves is a tiny slice than that required by the West.
Russians can (and have for ages) existed with little creature comforts. So they are able to use a vast amount of their self contained economy to focus on war.
The West is relatively weak and soft when it comes to this, as for the most part we exist in exceptional creature comforts. It then skews our understand of enemies as we as a whole do not understand that they can exist with far far far least, and accept it.
This lack of understanding has crushed our efforts in most conflicts since the Second World War, and it led to spectacular failure in Afghanistan. With no understanding that ) we really could bomb them back to the Stone Age - as they lived it long before we came, and 2) Afghanistan of 2002 was no longer the Afghanistan of the 1960's, that our support of various warlords to defeat the Soviets had rolled their culture back several hundred years.
Ronald Reagan was able to bring down the wall by outspending their Military - and with Rock N' Roll and Blue Jeans, as Russian's wanted more, but the key to that was it Cold War with no conflict to truly get Russians to rally behind. We failed Russia when the wall fell as various former KGB oligarchs consolidated power, and it festered into what Putin now wields. Short of a massive amount of casualties (I'm talking about 10 million at least), I do not see Russia changing, and revolting like what was done during WWI with the Czar. However I'm not sure who will play the part of the Bolsheviks in this.
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A couple of items from the ISW site over the last few days.
1) A more granular piece on what Canada recently provided to Ukraine last week. I've not seen anything previously mentioning that our latest aid package to Ukraine had included C6 and 9mm pistols being sent but the ISW does list them as part of the package.
"Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair announced that Canada will send 80,840 CRV-7 rocket motors, 1,300 unspecified warheads, 970 C6 machine guns, and 10,500 9mm pistols to Ukraine and that the rocket motors will arrive in the coming months.[22] Blair also stated that Canada will provide decommissioned chassis from 29 M113 and 64 Coyote LAV armored personnel carriers that Ukraine can use for spare parts. Blair stated that 10 of the 50 armored combat support vehicles (ACSVs) that Canada donated to Ukraine in June 2024 will arrive in Ukraine in September 2024 and that the remaining 40 will begin arriving in Spring 2025."
2) Some disturbing info being reported that is looking to be a bit more widespread and common.
Russian forces are increasingly executing surrendering Ukrainian soldiers throughout the frontline likely in part because Russian commanders appear to be endorsing the proliferation of such war crimes. CNN reported on September 6 that it obtained footage showing Russian forces executing surrendering Ukrainian soldiers near Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast in late August 2024 and Zaporizhia Oblast in May 2024.[25] Ukrainian defense intelligence reportedly gave CNN transcripts of audio intercepts from the May 2024 execution that showed that a Russian commander gave his subordinates the order to kill the surrendering Ukrainian soldiers. Ukrainian defense intelligence sources also reportedly gave CNN a list of 15 cases of Russian forces executing surrendering Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline since November 2023 - most of which included supporting drone footage or audio intercepts, and an anonymous Ukrainian official told CNN that the "pattern" of such executions has increased in 2024. Ukraine's Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin told CNN that the Prosecutor General's office has investigated at least 28 such executions since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. Kostin stated that different Russian units operating in different sectors of the front have committed these crimes leading Ukraine to assert that this Russian policy could amount to crimes against humanity. A United Nations (UN) investigative source told CNN that the "pattern" of these Russian executions "suggests complacency, if not orders to give no quarter" and that together they could amount to crimes against humanity. Attacking soldiers who are hors de combat, specifically those who have clearly expressed an intention to surrender, is a violation of Article 41 of the Geneva Convention on the Protection of Victims of International Arms Conflict.[26] ISW has extensively reported on previous footage and reports of Russian servicemembers executing Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) and observed a wider trend of prolific Russian abuses against Ukrainian POWs across various sectors of the front that appeared to be enabled, if not explicitly endorsed, by individual Russian commanders and upheld by Russian field commanders.[27]
1) A more granular piece on what Canada recently provided to Ukraine last week. I've not seen anything previously mentioning that our latest aid package to Ukraine had included C6 and 9mm pistols being sent but the ISW does list them as part of the package.
"Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair announced that Canada will send 80,840 CRV-7 rocket motors, 1,300 unspecified warheads, 970 C6 machine guns, and 10,500 9mm pistols to Ukraine and that the rocket motors will arrive in the coming months.[22] Blair also stated that Canada will provide decommissioned chassis from 29 M113 and 64 Coyote LAV armored personnel carriers that Ukraine can use for spare parts. Blair stated that 10 of the 50 armored combat support vehicles (ACSVs) that Canada donated to Ukraine in June 2024 will arrive in Ukraine in September 2024 and that the remaining 40 will begin arriving in Spring 2025."
2) Some disturbing info being reported that is looking to be a bit more widespread and common.
Russian forces are increasingly executing surrendering Ukrainian soldiers throughout the frontline likely in part because Russian commanders appear to be endorsing the proliferation of such war crimes. CNN reported on September 6 that it obtained footage showing Russian forces executing surrendering Ukrainian soldiers near Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast in late August 2024 and Zaporizhia Oblast in May 2024.[25] Ukrainian defense intelligence reportedly gave CNN transcripts of audio intercepts from the May 2024 execution that showed that a Russian commander gave his subordinates the order to kill the surrendering Ukrainian soldiers. Ukrainian defense intelligence sources also reportedly gave CNN a list of 15 cases of Russian forces executing surrendering Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline since November 2023 - most of which included supporting drone footage or audio intercepts, and an anonymous Ukrainian official told CNN that the "pattern" of such executions has increased in 2024. Ukraine's Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin told CNN that the Prosecutor General's office has investigated at least 28 such executions since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. Kostin stated that different Russian units operating in different sectors of the front have committed these crimes leading Ukraine to assert that this Russian policy could amount to crimes against humanity. A United Nations (UN) investigative source told CNN that the "pattern" of these Russian executions "suggests complacency, if not orders to give no quarter" and that together they could amount to crimes against humanity. Attacking soldiers who are hors de combat, specifically those who have clearly expressed an intention to surrender, is a violation of Article 41 of the Geneva Convention on the Protection of Victims of International Arms Conflict.[26] ISW has extensively reported on previous footage and reports of Russian servicemembers executing Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) and observed a wider trend of prolific Russian abuses against Ukrainian POWs across various sectors of the front that appeared to be enabled, if not explicitly endorsed, by individual Russian commanders and upheld by Russian field commanders.[27]
Skysix
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But, just as in the overflights and occasional impacts of drones onto NATO soil, with Snake Sullivan as the 'brain' behind US and thus NATO responses, what will be done beyond 'thoughts and prayers - we will watch and wait for as long as it takes' Very likely absolutely nothing.
There is nothing preventing any NATO member from defending their airspace by shooting down intruders, and as cruise missiles and drones will not respond to directions by radio from NATO CAP intercept fighters, have every legal right to do so. And no Russians will be killed.
Except fear of, not ESCALATION by Russia but the literal opposite of that by the US (who still makes most weapons NATO uses) under the guise of being at the top of the NATO chain of command.
Sooner or later Romania, Poland, Finland or the Baltics are going to say F U to the US administration and do exactly that - unfortunately playing into Putins hand by weakening the NATO alliance.
Lt. Admiral Rob Bauer (ex Dutch CDS) in his role as chair of the NATO Military Committee should actually LEAD the Military Committee and remind its members that it is responsible to provide guidance on military matters to SHAPE/SACEUR and is responsible for the overall conduct of the military affairs of the Alliance under the authority of the Council. And also make it clear to General Christopher Cavoli that while he 'wears two hats' - when he is acting as the NATO commander his allegiance then is to NATO, not the US, and that only when he is acting as the European theater commander of the US military should he be bound by political direction from the US.
In other words (to the US and General Cavoli, stop telling us what to do or how to do it in our own backyard from your safe cozy position on the other side of the Atlantic. Do what the NATO Military Committee orders, not the Pentagon. The NATO MC sets strategic goals, SHAPE figures out the operational objectives, and SACEUR the necessary tactical implementation to achieve them. If you can't live with that, resign.
Otherwise Article 5 will be even more of a joke / toothless tiger than it already has proven that it is. Just as Russia should not have a security council veto, the US should not have a NATO veto.
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Russian SUAS drone lands in Latvia
kyivindependent.com
Latvia confirms Russian Shahed drone armed with explosive crashed on its territory
A Russian Shahed-type drone equipped with an explosive crashed in Latvia on Sept. 7, Latvia's Defense Ministry confirmed during a press conference on Sept. 9.
kyivindependent.com
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Russian drone debris found in Romanian border town, Defense Ministry confirms
Romania's Defense Ministry confirmed on Sept. 9 that it had found Russian drone fragments near the village of Periprava, situated directly across the Danube River from the Ukrainian border.
kyivindependent.com
Honestly I think it’s only fair that NATO missiles land debris in Russian towns on a tit for tat.
Moscow or St Petersburg would be my recommendation for a few Tomahawks.
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did the Swedes actually give Ukraine a few Gripens?
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That's one Pinata you obvious don't want to hit with a stick or a gun.....
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State Dept takes more sanction against Iran and Russia
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Now we’re talking baby!
daftandbarmy
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Let 'em have it...
GK .Dundas
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More like a self-propelled wasp's nest.
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