The 2008 Canadian Election- Merged Thread

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s National Post, is political columnists Don Martin’s advice to Stéphane Dion:

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2008/09/05/don-martin-when-attacks-on-harper-just-won-t-cut-it.aspx

Don Martin: When attacks on Harper just won't cut it

Posted: September 05, 2008, 6:54 PM by Ronald Nurwisah

Don Martin, canadian election

WINNIPEG -- Here we go again – a third election in four years featuring another hidden Harper agenda to remake Canada in his own dark image.


Promoting real or imaginary fears of the Conservative government will be the Liberal party’s election fixation as their campaign takes to the low road on Sunday.


It makes sense given that insiders say Liberal leader Stephane Dion’s greatest strength on the campaign will be to exceed low public expectations, no doubt wowing voters with a fiesty display of owlish sincerity.


But other Liberals have a secret agenda of their own: The hundred-seat survival strategy.


There was a quiet political desperation in MPs ranks during their caucus retreat here this week, a mood that improved only slightly from fatalistic to Eyore-like gloominess after Mr. Dion delivered the best speech of his leadership on Wednesday.


Most MPs leave any dreams of re-forming a government at the bottom of last-call drinks, hoping to hang onto their existing 95 seats with a handful more as a morale boost.


The success or failure of this strategy will require Mr. Dion and his spinoff tour of heavyweight MPs to pin a big pitchfork on the tail of a demonized Prime Minister Stephen Harper.


But their credibility is at risk if they continue to fire blanks or cheap shots on the campaign. And they’re off to a lousy start.


For example, Mr. Dion wrongly accused the Conservatives of a cover up on new food safety regulations, mixing up his facts between meat processing plants and discussions concerning slaughterhouses. No correction was forthcoming.


And then there’s the Really Big Smear – insisting Mr. Harper must be stopped because he has created the most right wing government in Canadian history.


Oh, puh-LEEZE. This is the Conservative government that’s ramped up program spending faster than almost any Liberal prime minister, spending and tax-cutting its way to a fiscal point where a return to deficits are a clear and present danger.


In lieu of an all-business hands-off agenda, it’s blocked the sale of a space robotics firm to American interests. It is now in the business of bailing out the auto industry after standing firmly opposed to the principle of private sector support. It has not approved bank mergers or privatized the CBC and pours millions into its Quebec appeasement project.


Sure it’s been preoccupied with crime crackdowns, but that’s no rural right agenda. Support for tougher justice is rooted in big cities where drug-related crime and youth violence are on the upswing. 


About the only ideological act by Mr. Harper was to fix an election date for October 2009 -- and even that proved too difficult for a man of his controlling temperament to tolerate, as tomorrow’s writ-dropping will prove.


Still, Liberals have correctly spotted voter unease with Mr. Harper’s penchant for heavy-handed discipline and paranoid-laced secrecy. The challenge is giving clear voice to this discomfort.


Wrapping up his caucus meeting on Thursday, Mr. Dion returned to verbal gibberish form while officials winced at the back of the room. Reporters poured over tapes after that news conference, trying to decipher the random jumble of verbs, nouns and adjectives.


Getting Mr. Dion to connect with the anglo 75% of Canadian voters represents a serious wrinkle in their survival strategy.


Perhaps, then, some final pointers as Liberals take to the buses and planes, hoping the wheels don’t fall off and the polls go into reverse thrust. 


1. Yoga. Those who know him well say Mr. Dion is irritable and unfocussed if his day doesn’t start with a yoga session. So while the rest of us are hooking up caffeine intravenous tubes before breakfast, Liberal handlers would be well advised to give their guy sufficient time to complete his meditation before facing tough days on the road. 


2. Reality check the condemnations. If Mr. Dion continues to sensationalize accuse without supportive facts, along the lines of New Democrat leader Jack Layton blaming homeless deaths on former prime minister Paul Martin in 2004, legitimate concerns about the Conservative record will be dismissed.


3. Don’t go negative without a positive. If voters can’t stomach his leadership credentials, perhaps they’ll buy Dion’s ideas.


4. Sell the Team. A colleague of mine suggests Mr. Dion should immediately announce a lets-pretend cabinet. That way, the concern Canadians have about him as a weak prime minister would be bolstered by stronger MPs in key portfolios. Interesting, if impractical.


5. Promote the deficit-slaying success of the Liberals and contrast that with a Conservative record that recently posted a small deficit to start the fiscal year.

Of course, it’s too early to predict anything definitive because the campaign hasn’t even officially started yet.


But if the Conservatives do have a hidden agenda, it’s knowing a re-elected Harper government will immediately plunge the Liberal party into a mutiny against Mr. Dion, giving them a free hand to govern until that mess is cleaned up.


For a Liberal party without the money to stage another leadership convention any time soon, that’s the scariest thing about Stephen Harper.

National Post
dmartin@nationalpost.com

I find it moderately interesting that both Dion and Harper are being counselled to ‘sell the team’ – Dion because he is perceived to be a weak leader with a good, strong party ‘brand,’ and Harper because he is perceived to be too ‘strong’ and because he, personally, is more popular than the party’s brand.

I do think Harper has an agenda; I don’t think it is very well hidden but I do believe that many, many Canadians, maybe most, would not like it very much if they bothered to read about it. Fortunately, for Harper, his hidden agenda is very hard to describe and discuss on TV and Canadians appear (when asked, in polls) to regard reading about issues as a very poor third choice for information gathering.

While it might be useful, for the Liberals, to remind Canadians of how ‘comfortable’ – socially, economically, and so on - they were with Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin they (Liberals) risk moving into dangerous territory because, on economic issues, Canadians, according to the polls, trust Harper/Conservatives more  than they do Dion/Liberals.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Hello Mods: could we change the Poll at the top of this thread, please? After all, we can, apparently, stop speculating about when the election will be held.

Maybe we could say:

"Please tell us how you intend to vote when you have decided:

BQ: ___
Conservative: ___
Green: ___
Liberal: ___
NDP: ___
Other/will not vote/will spoil ballot: ___"

For consideration.

 

[a_majoor]

Liberal divisions are coming to the surface right on the eve of the election:

http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/story.html?id=774378

Good Grits

National Post  Published: Saturday, September 06, 2008

Re: Our Kind Of Lady, editorial, Sept. 5.

Your spirited editorial endorsing Sarah Palin claims that a good chunk of the Liberal party-- led by Senator Jerry Grafstein and strategist Thomas Axworthy -- still worship the policy ground "disastrously" first walked by Pierre Trudeau and, now, by Barack Obama. This comment lacks perspective.

Yes, Messrs. Grafstein and Axworthy strive to keep Trudeau's dream of a united Canada alive against the attacks of devolutionists, like Stephen Harper and even many Liberals, who pander to provincial and regional demands. But, when it comes to policies for the new century, these two are on the ball. They both seek to strengthen links with the United States to combat terrorism, defend the continent from missiles launched by rogue states and make the newly defended border even more secure while remaining open to the rapid traffic of goods and people. They also hold to small-c conservative economic views that would, if accepted by the party, make Ottawa less of a tax-and-spend monstrosity.

Finally, Mr. Axworthy spent a year chairing a Liberal Renewal Commission, to which Frank McKenna submitted a truly brilliant paper on enhancing ties with the United States. The realistic and provocative Axworthy Report was largely ignored by the Dionites, who are afraid to rouse the sleeping dogs of failed Liberal policies, some of them admittedly legacies of the Trudeau era, thus dooming themselves to defeat in the upcoming election.

Raymond Heard, Toronto.

Copyright © 2007 CanWest Interactive, a division of CanWest MediaWorks Publications, Inc.. All rights reserved.

 

[Old Sweat]

There indeed is a place for the kind of Liberals that fit this description:

. . . But, when it comes to policies for the new century, these two [Grafstein and Axworthy] are on the ball. They both seek to strengthen links with the United States to combat terrorism, defend the continent from missiles launched by rogue states and make the newly defended border even more secure while remaining open to the rapid traffic of goods and people. They also hold to small-c conservative economic views that would, if accepted by the party, make Ottawa less of a tax-and-spend monstrosity.

Since there is no place for them in the Liberal Party of Dion et al, and they recognize this, I am sure the Conservative Party of Canada would welcome them and their energy, dedication and ability. I don't think we would turn down their votes, either. This could start the process of re-aligning Canadian politics into two parties - one centre-right conservative and moderate and the other far left, radical and strident.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I just don't trust this poll of polls. The various companies ask different questions, may use different methodolgies and distribute their collected data differently. Did they include the two firms that accurately measure data in Quebec with a sample of about 1,000 compared to the national firms that have a sample in that province of about 250, with most on the Island of Montreal?

Apples plus oranges plus peaches plus pears equals fruit flies.

The consultants at Strategic Counsel agree with you. They are targeting 45 close ridings, according to this Globe and Mail story which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080906.wcampaignpolls06/BNStory/Front

Battleground smaller than you think
A few dozen ridings in three provinces expected to help decide election outcome

BRIAN LAGHI

From Saturday's Globe and Mail
September 6, 2008 at 8:50 AM EDT

Forget the idea that this is going to be a national election campaign. It's not.

Although the various party leaders will be making national announcements about everything from tax relief to fixing the environment and bolstering health care, the policies won't necessarily be aimed at winning votes across the country. Rather, there are a few dozen ridings upon which the real appeal will be focused, and which will help to decide the outcome of the election.

"Last election, almost 15 million Canadians voted and yet the decision as to whether it was a Liberal or Conservative government came down to fewer than 15,000 voters in fewer than a dozen ridings," said Peter Donolo, a partner with polling firm the Strategic Counsel. "I think all parties are going to be focusing on 40 to 50 of these battleground ridings that are geographically concentrated across the country."

To that end, the Strategic Counsel plans to track 45 of those ridings to better analyze the election campaign and perhaps more closely predict how it will turn out. The firm will poll 405 Canadians in those battlegrounds on a nightly basis, measuring how the daily bumps of the campaign effect the public mood there.

Twenty of the ridings are located in Ontario, 15 in Quebec and 10 in British Columbia. They are the ridings that offered up the tightest races in those three provinces. Unlike provinces such as Alberta - which is mostly locked in for the Conservatives - they are the provinces that are the most up for grabs.

The ridings range from a gap of 28 votes in the Ontario riding of Parry Sound-Muskoka (currently represented by Health Minister Tony Clement), to the Quebec riding of Brome-Mississquoi (won by the Bloc Québécois in 2006 by 5,027).

For the Tories to reach a majority, they will have to win 28 seats more than they currently have. Of the 45 seats in the tracking poll, 29 were won by opposition parties, putting into perspective the hill the Tories will have to climb.

Mr. Donolo notes that all parties know where these ridings are, and will be courting the support of voters there by tailoring their message and candidates to get at them.

One fear, however, is that courting voters in one corner of the country could offend voters in another. If, for example, Prime Minister Stephen Harper makes a strong play for nationalist voters in Quebec, he risks the possibility of offending voters in other provinces.

"That's the $64,000 question," Mr. Donolo says. "If Dion shows surprising strength as a native son will Harper come on strong with some kind of package that appeals to Quebec nationalists and if he does, what are the risks of that elsewhere in the country to him. Is there a backlash to him?"

Now, Peter Dolonlo is a very smart fellow and I admire his political acumen, but he must remember that campaigns matter. Some candidates, by their very presence in the race, are going to change the dynamics of some ridings. Equally, the national campaigns, themselves, may neutralize some candidates’ advantages – make currently close races into sure things and making some sure things into close races.

There’s a list of the 45 key ridings in the print edition of the Globe and Mail.

 

[Old Sweat]

Tracking a few ridings is just one of the useful tools available to professional users of the pollers' craft. I would also be terribly interested in the possibility for vote spliting or strategic voting and suspect it will be watched carefully.

Compared to the Liberals, the NDP is flush with cash and apt to be quick off the mark. Apparrently the Liberals will be without a plane for the first few days of the campaign, while their Air Inuit 737 (the only jet in that company's fleet) is being kitted. Will the NDP take advantage of their advantage, or will they fail selection and maintenance of the aim? Is their choice to demonize the CPC and risk vote splitting, or worse from their point of view, strategic voting? Or will they go for the long run and aim for closing the gap with the Liberals and perhaps even becoming the official opposition? Imagine what that improbable event would do to the Grits.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Here is an article by Quebec commentator L. IAN MacDONALD on recent polls on Quebec voting trends, and whythey should not be trusted.  (Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act).

Don't trust the polls: The Liberals are down in Quebec

by L. IAN MacDONALD
National Post, Friday, September 5, 2008

"The Liberals' morale is at zero" announced a headline across the top of two pages in La Presse yesterday. And that was just the turn off the front, where the banner was a composite quote from Liberal insiders: "In Quebec, it's a disaster."

Stephane Dion, glancing through his press clippings, must have felt tempted to cancel his free subscription. If, on election night, he confounds predictions, he'll be entitled to a Harry Truman moment, famously waving an erroneous headline back at his tormentors.

But how can such a negative story run just two days after the release of a Strategic Counsel poll showing the Liberals in a very competitive second place to the Bloc Quebecois, at 26% to their 34%, with the Conservatives trailing at 23%? What gives?

The polite answer is that the poll's margin of error on its Quebec sample -- 6.3% -- essentially renders the numbers meaningless. The less polite answer is that no one in the Quebec political class believes it.

Never mind that Strategic Counsel is closely aligned with an Ipsos poll for Canwest-Global last weekend, which had the Bloc at 34%, the Liberals at 27% and the Conservatives a distant third at 21%.

In Quebec, the only authoritative polls are local, notably CROP and Leger Marketing. And CROP, in La Presse last week, told a much different story, with the Conservatives at 31%, the Bloc at 30% and the Liberals trailing at 20%.

It doesn't matter how accurate the pollsters are in the Rest of Canada (ROC). When it comes to Quebec, they should be taken with a very big buyer-beware notice.

It begins with the sample size. CROP, for example, polls 1,000 respondents in Quebec. Strategic Counsel polls 1,000 for the entire country, including just under 250 for Quebec.

But it isn't just the size of the sample, it's where the sample comes from.

Pollsters from ROC are susceptible to over-sampling the island of Montreal, a bastion of Liberal support. CROP, on the other hand, provides regional breakouts for the Rest of Quebec, a crucial battleground of 50 ridings, including the 418 area that includes Quebec City and the eastern part of the province.

The Conservatives established their 2006 Quebec beachhead in the 418, and now hold 10 seats there. The other 418 seats are all shaping up as competitive races between Bloc incumbents and the Conservatives. The Liberals, by their own admission, are not even in the game in the 418. Only in the Montreal region, and particularly on the island, are the Liberals in a strong position.

As the Conservatives contemplate the possibility of graduating from minority government, their road map to a majority lies through the ROQ as well as the 905 suburban belt around Toronto and the 519 in southern Ontario.

When the numbers from the Strategic Counsel poll are applied nationally, it's a 37-29 Conservative lead over the Liberals. But if the CROP numbers are substituted in Quebec (a step that statisticians would admittedly frown upon, since mixing poll data is generally not done), the Conservatives would be seven points higher in the province, and the Liberals six points lower. That would yield a national Conservative lead of around 39-27, putting Stephen Harper very close to majority territory.

It remains only for Dion to confound expectations. He did once before in the Liberal leadership race. Can he do it again?

 

[Edward Campbell]

... [W]ill they go for the long run and aim for closing the gap with the Liberals and perhaps even becoming the official opposition? Imagine what that improbable event would do to the Grits.

That would be my strategy, were I leading the NDP.

I would savage the Liberal/Green carbon tax, even as I lashed Stephen Harper for doing nothing at all about the fearful climate change crisis, and stress the advantages, to ordinary Canadians' wallets, of my cap and trade system. I would (dishonestly) tell Canadians that George W Bush doesn't like cap and trade but Europeans do - that always works.

I would, with disarming simplicity, tell Canadians that I would bring the troops home now! (perhaps even with honour) and then put them back on baby-blue beret wearing peacekeeping duties - where they will not need all those new, expensive weapons.

That's probably about all I would need to say to accomplish my strategic mission of uniting the left and moving Olivia Chow and I into Stornoway.

 

[Kirkhill]

....and moving Olivia Chow and I into Stornoway

In which case I would be the first to offer my sincerest condolences......although to which one I am not sure. ;D

 

[geo]

What do you mean that liberal divisions are coming to the surface all of a sudden..... they've been staring ya in the face ever since the knives came out for Paul Martin.

 

[JBG]

Personally I don't mind following if the mob is going where I want to go but I am less than thrilled if I am swept to a destination undesirable or unclear at a pace uncomfortable.

I cannot disagree with those sentiments in the least.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Assuming that, a bit later this morning, we will be in an election campaign, and assuming that Afghanistan will be an issue, I think we should revisit this topic from about a year ago.

 

[Nfld Sapper]

And off to the races we go.


Federal election called for Oct. 14
PM predicts Tories will win: 'We believe in all likelihood it will be a minority'
Last Updated: Sunday, September 7, 2008 | 8:35 AM ET
CBC News
Canadians will head to the polls in a general election on Oct. 14, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Sunday in Ottawa after meeting with the Governor General.

Harper made the announcement outside Rideau Hall where he met briefly with Michaëlle Jean, and asked that the minority government be dissolved.

"We have come to the moment that requires the people of Canada to choose the way forward," Harper said.

"Our government is offering a clear direction," he said, describing the current Parliament as "dysfunctional."

Harper took direct aim at the Liberals, led by Stéphane Dion. The prime minister said Dion is going into the election promoting large-scale spending and a new carbon tax.

When asked about what the outcome of the vote might be, Harper said, "We believe it is going to be a tough election. We believe it will be a tight election. And, yes, we believe in all likelihood it will be a minority."

'A stark choice' is before voters: Dion
Dion promised an open style of government, and said the election poses "a stark choice" for the country and slammed Harper's party for not planning for future generations.

"Stephen Harper has formed the most conservative government in our history," Dion said in the foyer of the House of Commons.

Dion said he would champion a "richer, fairer, greener Canada," and this "may well be the most crucial campaign in our election history."

Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe called for the election of a large number of Bloc MPs, and said he would work to prevent Harper from gaining a majority.

"In order to have Quebec respected in Ottawa, we need to have a team that puts Quebec first," Duceppe said in Montreal.

"With the Bloc, Quebec can present a united stand in Ottawa," he said. 'We want Quebec to be the winner."

4 byelections cancelled
Harper's Conservative party has been in power since Jan. 23, 2006, when it won a minority of seats.

Heading into this election, the Conservatives held 127 seats, while the Liberals had 95. The Bloc Québecois had 48 seats, the New Democratic Party 30, and there were three Independent members of Parliament.

The Green party had one MP and four seats were vacant.

The calling of the Canada-wide vote means the cancellation of four federal byelections that were scheduled to take place this month. Three were set for Monday and one was to be held later this month.

Before taking questions from reporters outside Rideau Hall, Harper praised Canada as the "best country in the world," and said serving as prime minister has been an honour.

 

[George Wallace]

I find it amusing watching Jack Layton announce his candidacy for PM and launching his campaign from the "Backside" of Parliament, over on the Quebec side of the river.

 

[midget-boyd91]

I find it amusing watching Jack Layton announce his candidacy for PM and launching his campaign from the "Backside" of Parliament, over on the Quebec side of the river.

Amusing and appropriate that he's talking from the 'backside.'
He's always talking from there anyways.

This is going to be the first time I can vote, and I know who that'll be for. I don't have that CPC membership card in my wallet as a decoration.

Midget

 

[George Wallace]

Weeeeee!  Elizabeth May's turn (in reference to why people don't want to vote):

"It doesn't matter who I vote for, the Government always wins"..............Well D'uh!

Of course the Government wins.  That is what we are electing members to Parliament for; to create a Government.   :

 

[midget-boyd91]

Weeeeee!  Elizabeth May's turn (in reference to why people don't want to vote):

"It doesn't matter who I vote for, the Government always wins"..............Well D'uh!

Of course the Government wins.  That is what we are electing members to Parliament for; to create a Government.   :

Liz May, she's running against Peter MacKay this time. You know, her desperate bids for attention and thus airtime would be humorus if they weren't so sad. Threatening to take the Media to court for airtime during debates sounds more like a kid threatening to 'taddle-tale' than the leader of a political party.

Midget

 

[Edward Campbell]

That solid majority (according to our very unscientific poll at the top of the page) of Army.ca members who want a Conservative victory (and, I’m assuming, a Conservative majority, too) had better start hoping that both Jack Layton and Elizabeth May run good campaigns and win more seats that they have now. We, Conservatives, need them (Greens and NDP) to take votes away from the Liberals - especially in ridings where the Conservatives can benefit from a tight race on the left and ‘come up through the middle.’

I see three key races:

• In Québec, outside of Montréal, between federalists – who, according to the polls I have seen, favour the Conservatives - and the BQ supporters. The Conservatives need to aim to pick up 15 seats– partially to offset a few losses in Atlantic Canada. That, going from 15 to 30± seats in Québec, involves the virtual annihilation of the BQ;

• In Ontario, outside of Toronto, between the Conservatives and the Liberals. The Conservatives need to aim for 10+ new seats in Ontario; and

• In the major urban centres (outside of Alberta) between the Greens, Liberals and NDP. The Conservatives might pick up a few (one, two, three even four or five) seats when the 'left' vote splits three ways.

 

[Old Sweat]

For the Conservatives in this election there are a couple of long term goals. The short term goal is to retain power, perhaps with a majority or at least an increased minority. In an ideal world the CPC would hope to split the left vote by driving Liberal voters to the Greens and the NDP, and for what Edward might term the St Laurent Liberals to the Tories. This would produce a strategic defeat for the Grits and guarantee another Liberal leadership race within a year or so, when that party's finances are still deeply crimson. The reduced Liberal vote would also decrease the available cash based on the votes received and make their financial position more and more precarious. Is it possible?

The other long term goal is to demoralize the Separatist vote in Quebec. While a gain of 15-20 seats does not seem like all that much, it would reduce the BQ to around 30 seats or just ahead of the Tories. Both would be ahead of the Liberals, especially if the NDP/Greens pick up a couple of seats. The future for the Bloc would be grim and in time they could go the way of the Creditistes of the 60s and 70s.

The NDP could be the strategic victors in this election. While they will not gain power, they could be poised to replace the Liberals as official opposition, or at the very least pick up a tidy chunk of Grit ridings. To do this, they will have to convince the electorate that strategic voting is not an option.

 

[Kirkhill]

And Canada will become a series of distinct "colonies" (in the microbial, Petrie dish type sense) isolated by their natural geography into distinct cultures......

Unlike Liberals (and strident Nationalists) I don't consider this to be a problem.  I consider it a natural stage in the evolution of a population (mitosis - the spreading of the seeds of a stressed organism).

With the establishment of a variety of healthy and growing independent cultures we can then hope that our politicians will find new opportunities to bind us together on the basis of symbiosis (mutual advantage between discrete organisms) or even meiosis (sexual reproduction between two separate organisms resulting in a related but distinct new organism).

Mitosis
Symbiosis
Meiosis

We are truly Slime. ;D