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Russia in the 21st Century [Superthread]

And I think that too little is being made of the Paris COP connection.

Paris, if the politicians did what they promised - a stretch, presents an existential threat to OPEC in general and the Saudis in particular.

One way for them to fight back is to drive the price of oil waaaay down and make uncompetitive technologies that required ridiculous levels of government support beforehand even less competitive.

With oil at 30 to 40 dollars a barrel carbon capture becomes an affordable marginal cost when compared to building nuclear plants or silly bugger notions like windmills and tidal ponds.

And the Saudis get to continue making money.  As will Canadian oil sands, which actually have a very low cost of production once the plant is up and running.
 
Russia contemplating selling energy at a discount to keep their market? Given the current bite low oil process are taking from the Russina budget, I can see this being something they would undertake very reluctantly.

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/02/19/should-gazprom-imitate-saudi-arabia/

Should Gazprom Imitate Saudi Arabia?

A top Russian economist thinks Gazprom would be able to adopt Saudi strategies, in a move that would help the company stay relevant in Europe. Bloomberg reports:

The Saudis compete with other crude suppliers by boosting oil production and cutting prices, [Russian state bank Vnesheconombank’s chief economist Andrey Klepach] said Friday. “We could play the same role in gas as we have the capacity for boosting gas exports and production,” he said in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk. […]

Facing limited demand in Russia and other post-Soviet states, Gazprom says it has capacity to produce as much as 617 billion cubic meters of gas a year, which is 47 percent higher than its output last year. The company forecasts its average price in Europe may drop more than 30 percent this year to $169 per 1,000 cubic meters (about $4.7 per million British thermal units) if oil remains at about $35 a barrel.
Gazprom has a history of tying its natural gas contracts to the price of oil, and this decision—once decried by its customers when crude was selling for more than $100 per barrel—is now coming back around to hurt it given today’s sub-$35 prices.

But discounted prices may be the only way Russia can hold on to its share of its most important market, as the Continent increasingly turns to LNG as an alternative. The global LNG market is fairly flooded with supplies these days (sound familiar?), and with the United States just now emerging onto the scene as an exporter of the superchilled hydrocarbon, prices are coming down.

So now Moscow is facing down the prospect of having to woo a customer base that for decades was more of a foregone conclusion. Russia is already dealing with the considerable pain of being a petrostate in a bearish oil market, which makes this natural gas pressure all the more harrowing.
 
From the "everything old is new again/deja vu all over again" file ...
Russia will continue to render assistance to Afghanistan in equipping national security forces for the fight against terrorism and drug threat, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Monday.

"A large batch of Russian small arms and ammunition for the needs of the Afghan Interior Ministry has been delivered to Afghanistan gratis through the Russian Interior Ministry," the Russian Foreign Ministry said. "In view of this, the Afghan authorities have expressed gratitude to the Russian leadership."

"We reaffirm our readiness to continue cooperation with Afghanistan in fighting against terrorism and the drug threat both on the bilateral basis and in cooperation with foreign partners and international organizations," the Russian Foreign Ministry said ...
 
From Stratfor

hqdefault.jpg
(Not Stratfor's photo of Putin and Lesin; theirs was too big)
Controversy is brewing between the United States and Russia over the mysterious death of a one-time Kremlin heavyweight in Washington. Mikhail Lesin, Russia's former press minister, died in the U.S. capital in November 2015. At the time, Lesin's family reported that he had suffered a fatal heart attack. But on March 10, Washington's medical examiner and police department announced that Lesin was killed by blunt force injuries to his head, neck and upper and lower torso.

At this point, it is too soon to definitively label Lesin's death an assassination ordered by the Kremlin. However, with tension once again rising between the United States and Russia, it is possible that Moscow is seeking to remind Washington of its long reach while also silencing a defector.

Heart attack -- blunt force trauma....I always mix up the signs & symptoms!
 
A joint European-Russian mission to Mars to search for life:

Yahoo News video

What Is The ExoMars Mission? Everything You Need To Know
Yahoo News
March 14, 2016

A Russian rocket blasted off from Baikonur Cosmodrome Kazakhstan on Monday to launch Europe’s ExoMars mission searching for life on Mars.

A joint effort between the European Space Agency (ESA) and Russia’s Roscosmos, the mission comprises the Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO) and Schiaparelli landing module, both of which are designed to sniff out signs of life on the red planet.

The space modules will travel for seven months before reaching Mars in October.

(...SNIPPED)
 
Putin has cut out from the Interior Ministry its elite troops to be under his personal command.Curious move.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-04-10/putin-gets-his-own-army?cmpid=yhoo.headline

President Vladimir Putin has overhauled Russia's law-enforcement operations to create a domestic army that ultimately would answer to him personally, not to one of the government ministers. It was the clearest demonstration in years of the Russian leader's concern about preserving his power.
 
tomahawk6 said:
Putin has cut out from the Interior Ministry its elite troops to be under his personal command.Curious move.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-04-10/putin-gets-his-own-army?cmpid=yhoo.headline

President Vladimir Putin has overhauled Russia's law-enforcement operations to create a domestic army that ultimately would answer to him personally, not to one of the government ministers. It was the clearest demonstration in years of the Russian leader's concern about preserving his power.

The Praetorians’ may have been tasked with protecting the Roman Emperor, but they were also the single greatest threat to his life. The unit was a major player in the webs of deceit that characterized imperial Rome, and they were willing to slaughter and install new emperors when tempted by promises of money or power. Disgruntled Praetorians famously engineered the assassination of Caligula and the selection of Claudius as his successor in A.D. 41. Among others, the Guard or their prefect also played a part in the murder of Commodus in 192, Caracalla in 217, Elagabalus in 222 and Pupienus and Balbinus in 238. In some cases, the Praetorians were partially responsible for both installing andmurdering a would-be emperor. Galba ascended the throne in A.D. 68 after winning the support of the Guard, only to be killed at their hands the following year after he neglected to properly reward them. Likewise, Emperor Pertinax was confirmed by the Praetorians in 193 and then slain just three months later when he tried to force them to accept new disciplinary measures.

http://www.history.com/news/history-lists/8-things-you-may-not-know-about-the-praetorian-guard

Risky move? 
 
Putin evidently felt the need for a unit more robust than the Kremlin Guard.The Nazi's did the same with their SS/Waffen SS.This force will compete for funding with the Interior Ministry and Army which may cause hard feelings.
 
Journeyman said:
Heart attack -- blunt force trauma....I always mix up the signs & symptoms!

Maybe he had a heart attack poisoned shot himself suicide shot died of old age hanged himself and then was pushed tripped thrown fell down the stairs... 
 
Looks like Гусь & инакомыслящий* have been busy over the Baltic ...
The Russians must have thought they were on a 1950s-1960s set of a Cold War movie being filmed about the building political tensions between two superpowers.

Instead of a film, what happened Monday and Tuesday in the Baltic Sea was only too real. Russian Su-24 attack planes buzzed the USS Donald Cook multiple times getting as close as 30 feet to the Navy destroyer. The Russian jets appeared unarmed on Tuesday, but the commander of the USS Donald Cook said the planes flew a simulated attack profile, The Associated Press reports ...

* - Russian for Goose & Maverick

Su-24-buzzing-2-706x470.jpg

(Photo source)
 
Estonia's report on Russia's Hybrid Warfare threat to Europe. I'm personally not convinced that a breakup of the EU might not be as devastating as suggested; there are already indications that Poland is cementing a leadership position among the Eastern European nations, and it is possible that the "German Zone" might do a lot better if they shed the "Latin Zone". The Nordic nations can do well on their own, and the UK has options like maintaining the balance of power from the outside, or join a NAFTA (North Atlantic Free Trade Zone), among other things:

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/estonian-report-russia-hybrid-threat/

Estonian Report Details Russia’s ‘Hybrid Threat’ to Europe
Combating Russian propaganda increasingly important front in information war
BY: Molly McKew  
April 18, 2016 4:00 pm

A new report by the Estonian Internal Security Service emphasizes the danger a resurgent Russia and a weakening European Union poses to stability and democracy in the region, highlighting Russian propaganda efforts in recent years.

The service, known in Estonia as Kaitsepolitseiamet or “Kapo,” produces an Annual Review summarizing trends and internal threats to Estonia. The 2015 Annual Review, released last week, includes sections on cyber security, preventing international terrorism, and fighting corruption, among other issues.

However, the first page of the report makes it clear what the service considers the top threat to Estonian and European security: “In the context of Russian aggression, the security threat arising from a weakening of the European Union is many times greater than that arising from the refugees settling in Estonia.”

“This is the most important point,” Martin Arpo, Kapo’s deputy director general, told the Washington Free Beacon. “For Estonia, the report is a reminder: let’s think about real security threats, and not imaginary ones. The migration crisis is bringing focus away from real threats not only in Estonia but in Europe, as well. The only hope for Putin to fulfill his ambitions is that Europe and NATO are split or have controversies inside. The refugee crisis is really the only serious topic that can bring these controversies.”

The first page of the report references the Gerasimov Doctrine, a vision of war through non-military means published by Russian Chief of General Staff Valeriy Gerasimov in early 2013.

The doctrine stipulates that the purpose of modern war is to erode the “readiness, will, and values” of the enemy. This concept drives how Estonia evaluates the internal threat from Russia.

Propaganda and other Russian activities in Estonia are tools, Arpo says, “for possibilities to create instability. The Russians won’t do anything militarily without creating an internal threat—the impression of an internal threat, if not a real one.”

One front in the information battle has been the debate over Syrian refugees.

Estonia, like the rest of Europe, has hosted fierce public debate about immigration due to the influx of refugees from Syria and other conflicts zones. Arpo said fear of the refugees is misplaced.

“Thousands of immigrants come to Estonia and integrate, create no problems,” said Arpo. “The number of refugees coming to Estonia is marginal compared to this number. These are ungrounded fears.”

Arpo said Russia is exploiting the immigration debate to sow dissent and bolster opposition movements within European countries.

“Populists have gained a lot of ground by bringing the refugee topic to the public,” he said. “Russian propaganda picks up the populist comments. The prevailing message is that governments in Europe are unable to address the migration crisis, so populists now represent ‘the people’ more than their governments.”

Asked how Estonia tries to fight the Russian propaganda campaigns against it, Arpo laughed. “The best you can achieve with Russian outlets is that they don’t use what you give them.”

If the facts are good enough, he says, the Russians can’t spin them, so they end up on the cutting-room floor. Often this process is seen as wasted effort.

“You have to tell your own story. Don’t get trapped into their story. If there are lies, we have to say it is a lie, and what is the truth. But we can’t lose ourselves on this Russian battlefield, reproducing their narrative for them.

“Propaganda is for the Western audience as much as the Russian one, and the West should not forget this. It is the electorates of NATO countries who will ultimately decide if NATO protects us or not, if sanctions continue or not.”

Arpo compared the information campaigns of Russia with those of ISIS.

“Russia wants to show itself as the last fortress of the Christian world and conservative values. ISIS propaganda also tries to offer an alternative to the liberal world and Western values,” he said. “Both use anti-liberal, anti-Western rhetoric. This is the common ground. But more important is the synergy between them. The big, distorted picture of the West as weak, and decadent.

“Maybe Russian propaganda is not a direct threat for western European countries,” Arpo said. “But it is a threat to the integrity of Europe.”

When Estonia regained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, it embraced a national policy of rapid integration into the EU and NATO to provide political and security guarantees for its sovereignty. Estonia is now one of the few NATO countries spending the target 2 percent of GDP on national defense.

Estonia’s recent history of Soviet occupation, as well as attempted Russian disruption of its internal affairs since, means it keeps a wary eye on its neighbor to the east.

The review provides detailed examples of what Arpo describes as the “hybrid threat” that Russia presents to Estonia. Arpo emphasizes that the threat is about far more than espionage.

“Information is not a goal, but a tool. The goal is not information, but to influence,” Arpo said.

Previously seen as an outlier in its fear about Russian aggression in its near abroad, Estonia is now at the center of conversations about countering the Russian threat.

“It’s not Russia that has changed,” Arpo said. “It’s the perception of Russia that has changed.”

Arpo said Baltic economies have been impacted far more by sanctions against Russia than the rest of Europe, but that it is a small price to pay. “Europe needs this approach to Russia. So we are accepting the losses. It is cheaper to deal with Russia this way than deal with consequences later from their aggressive policy.”

High-profile examples of Russian aggression, such as the dangerous flyover of the USS Donald Cook and intercept of an American reconnaissance plane, dominate media coverage, but the review said more attention should be paid to the internal subversion being pushed and funded by Russia across Europe.
 
saudi_russia-large_trans++bTl4D02iCM3NuMfK2RT0HVEXq6tqCNahPZurv82LtPU.PNG


Putin vs the Saudis - not so chipper looking.

Hardly any country in the OPEC cartel is capable of producing more oil. Several are failed states, or sliding into political crises.

Russia is milking a final burst of production before the depleting pre-Soviet wells of Western Siberia go into slow run-off. Sanctions have stymied its efforts to develop new fields or kick-start shale fracking in the Bazhenov basin. 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/18/saudis-are-going-for-the-kill-but-the-oil-market-is-turning-anyw/
 
Meanwhile, even as Putin "spars" with OPEC, in another former Soviet satellite, Kazakhstan, next door: 

Yahoo Finance/Oilprice.com

Why Chevron Is Investing $37B In The World’s ‘’Most Difficult Oil’’
By Dave Forest | Oilprice.com – Fri, 27 May, 2016 11:28 AM EDT

I wrote Wednesday about Australia’s Oil Search making a major $2.2 billion investment in Papua New Guinea natural gas. Noting this as a sign the right projects are still getting financed in the global oil and gas space.

And later that day, we got news of a new mega-deal in the petroleum investment space. One that comes at a ten-fold larger scale.

That came from U.S. major Chevron. Which the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday will lead a consortium investing a stunning $37 billion in one single project — located in a completely unexpected part of the world.

Offshore Kazakhstan.

The Journal cited Kazakhstan’s energy minister, Kanat Bozumbayev, as saying the massive investment will come from Chevron and partners ExxonMobil, Lukoil and Kazakhstan state firm KazMunaiGas. With the target being an expansion of the Tengiz oil field, located in the Kazakh Caspian Sea.

Energy minister Bozumbayev said that recent meetings with Chevron had confirmed the investment at Tengiz. Which is already producing 500,000 barrels per day of oil under the Chevron-led consortium.

The fresh $37 billion program will be aimed at expanding that output. With production now expected to rise to 760,000 barrels per day by 2021.

The move is surprising for a number of reasons. First for its shear size — at a time when most E&Ps are cutting back capital expenses.

The deal is also surprising given the extreme challenges involved with Tengiz. As the figure below shows, the field (circled in white) lies at the remote northern reaches of the Caspian Sea — where conditions like cold weather and ice flows make development extremely challenging.

(...SNIPPED)
 
This had me laughing.  Is Edward wanting to get kicked out of the country and turned over to the Americans... :)

"Edward Snowden decries Russian surveillance bill as dangerous, urges Putin not to sign

By Andrew Blake - The Washington Times - Saturday, June 25, 2016

Sweeping new surveillance measures approved by lawmakers in Russia this week were denounced Saturday by one of the country’s most well-known residents: former NSA contractor Edward Snowden.

Responding to an expansive package of legislative proposals passed Friday in the State Duma, Mr. Snowden took to Twitter early Saturday to urge President Vladimir Putin to not sign the measures into law.

“Russia’s new Big Brother law is an unworkable, unjustifiable violation of rights that should never be signed,” Mr. Snowdentweeted...
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jun/25/edward-snowden-decries-russian-surveillance-bill-d/"
 
Is this guy's 15 minutes of fame up yet? He's lucky Putin doesn't just lock him up, like he does with other opponents. If you thought the NSA surveillance was bad domestically, Russia must seem like hell on earth.
 
PuckChaser said:
Is this guy's 15 minutes of fame up yet? He's lucky Putin doesn't just lock him up, like he does with other opponents. If you thought the NSA surveillance was bad domestically, Russia must seem like hell on earth.

PC - you forget.  Russia is trying hard but it just isn't up to its old standards.  Much of their territory is a lawless wild west where it is pretty hard to find a jack to plug a wifi into.

I'm guessing the poor little bugger is just getting tired of the long download times.
 
jollyjacktar said:
Responding to an expansive package of legislative proposals passed Friday in the State Duma, Mr. Snowden took to Twitter early Saturday to urge President Vladimir Putin to not sign the measures into law.

He knows that nothing gets through the Russian Parliament without Putin's say so right?

Dude, how did you manage to get recruited by US intelligence without knowing that basic concept.

Russian Democracy. See below.
 

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