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Rae won't say so out loud, but he aches to be PM

G2G:  With the majority of the 10% growth of the House occuring in Tory friendy territories, the Toris have no need to seek out any growth.

Which may well be their downfall.  An election in 2015 with another majority; and it's suddenly 2019 with a party that's largely unchanged from 2011.  That sort of stagnation can be deadly - particularly since The Rt Hon Mr Harper will be only 60 and still spoiling for a fight.

On further reflection, Stephen Harper may well be the Tories Achilles heel; he's doing precious little to groom successors.  That can result in a party with no viable leaders once he retires, or with open warfare in the caucus (See Martin, Paul Jr).
 
I agree with G2G re: Brison being the qualitatively better choice, but the Liberals have a tradition of alternating French/English leaders - and Ignatieff and Rae are filling the English slot. Of the available Francos LeBlanc is the only choice if the Liberals do not want to commit ritual suicide.
 
Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act.

Rae won’t rule out bid for permanent Liberal leadership

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/rae-wont-rule-out-bid-for-permanent-liberal-leadership/article2287550/

Interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae says he’ll stay at the helm of his party until it selects his successor – he just won’t say whether that successor could be him.

Banned from running under current party rules, Mr. Rae won’t be pinned down on whether he thinks a change in those rules is in order.

“Now you’re asking what President [Franklin] Roosevelt used to call iffy questions,” said Mr. Rae at a news conference Friday. “And I don’t answer iffy questions.”

“The party made a decision with respect to the choice of the interim leader,” he said. “They have made rules, and I’ve said all the way through that I’d live by those rules.”

Mr. Rae, at an end-of-year news conference in downtown Toronto, attacked the Conservatives on the economy. He said Stephen Harper’s government is out to protect the interests of the rich at the expense of the working class.

Payroll taxes, including employment-insurance premiums, are due to rise Jan. 1, at the same time that Tories are mulling a cut in corporate taxes, he said. Such measures will set back Canada’s economic recovery and take “money right out of the pockets of low-income people,” he added.

Mr. Rae was appointed interim Liberal leader this spring after Michael Ignatieff led the party to a third-place finish for the first time in its modern history. The Tories garnered a majority government as the NDP took over the Official Opposition.

“The lesson is you pick yourself up, you dust yourself off and you start all over again,” Mr. Rae said. “The key word is resilience.”

Last summer Mr. Rae took over the party on the condition that he not use his heightened profile to seek the job permanently. Yet some Liberals feel he has done such a good job filling the role that they are suggesting that rules change before the party holds a leadership convention slated for 2013.

Having never shut the door on a leadership run, Mr. Rae, a former Ontario Premier, certainly sounds comfortable in his job.

“We’re an effective opposition party. I’ve been in a lot of three-party contests before. I did that in another life, in another movie, and we can do it again,” Mr. Rae said Friday.

“It’s just a matter of being relevant, being focused, having something to say and saying it a way people will remember.”

He said the Liberals will be stumping in Quebec in early 2012 to pick up votes that now appear to be up for grabs. “I’m going to be spending quite a bit of time there in the new year and doing what I can to have an impact.”
 
With Rae at the helm Ont and the Prairies are all but locked up for the Torries. The Liberals will have to continue to campaign from the left if they hope to pick up any seats in Quebec.
 
recceguy said:
Rae won’t rule out bid for permanent Liberal leadership

Mr. Rae, at an end-of-year news conference in downtown Toronto, attacked the Conservatives on the economy. He said Stephen Harper’s government is out to protect the interests of the rich at the expense of the working class.
Not much progress on shaking his NDP mantra.....
 
As the Harper government continues to not be the band of evil trolls depicted by their opposition, the Liberals may be forced to actually have a real, believable and economically viable vision for this country rather than simply pandering to special interest groups.  It sure would be nice to have some real debate from strong if different views. 
Unfortunately, what i'm hearing from Rae so far is more of the same make the rich pay crap that did such wonders for Ontario.  What ever happened to the fiscally responsible Liberals???
 
GAP said:
:rofl:  When was that?

Mackenzie King (1921 to 1948) and Louis St. Laurent (1948-1957). I'm pretty sure Lester Pearson didn't run a ruinous deficit either, although my Google Fu isn't helping today...

These boots are too big for Bob Rae to fill...
 
I can't recall the size or indeed if there were any deficits in the Pearson years. However he started the development of the welfare state and I do recall all sorts of tax hikes including a surcharge called a "social development tax." Pearson also began the process of buying "labour peace" with large settlements.
 
So, let's step back in time a tad and compare then to the article above.


Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act.

http://www.cp24.com/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110519/110519_rae_leadership?hub=CP24Home

Bob Rae will not run for Liberal leadership

OTTAWA — Bob Rae is shelving his long-term leadership ambitions in order to become interim leader of the devastated federal Liberal party.

The Toronto MP wrote his caucus colleagues Thursday to advise he's willing to let his name stand for the position of interim leader.

And Rae acknowledged that means he'll have to give up thoughts of one day running to become the permanent successor to Michael Ignatieff, who resigned after leading the once-mighty party to a historic defeat in the May 2 election.

"I shall abide by any rules about the interim leadership, agreed to by the caucus and by the (the party's) board (of directors)," he says in the letter.

"I have made it a watchword of my time in public life to practise the politics of unity and principled compromise. I shall continue to do so."

The party's directors have the authority to appoint an interim leader, based on the recommendation of the parliamentary caucus which appears to overwhelmingly favour Rae.

The board served notice last week that the interim leader must be bilingual and must promise not to seek the permanent leadership or engage in any discussions about a possible merger with the NDP.

There remains some dissension over precluding the interim leader from seeking the permanent post. But party president Alf Apps, who's been consulting with caucus, riding presidents and other Liberals, has said there appears to be a broad consensus in favour of imposing the condition.

On Friday, the board is expected to issue final rules for the interim leadership and for delaying the vote for a permanent leader, most likely until the fall of 2012.

Should Rae be chosen and perform well as interim leader, it's conceivable Liberal party brass could eventually choose to relax the prohibition on running for the permanent leadership.

But sources close to Rae say he's genuinely relinquishing his long-term ambitions in order to focus on the immediate and urgent task of rebuilding the party.
Rae, a one-time NDP premier of Ontario, flatly told The Canadian Press: "I'm not planning to run for the long-term leadership."
Many Liberals believe the party will have to slowly rebuild its base through the next two elections before it can hope to be in position to contend for power again. At 62, Rae suggested he's simply too long in the tooth to take on that challenge.

"I think it's just being realistic. I mean the fact is we're down to 19 per cent (of the popular vote), we're down to 34 seats," he said in an interview.

A permanent leader has "got to be prepared to commit to a decade and it's a decade of work. I think that's obviously a factor in my decision, as it would be in anybody's decision."

In his letter to caucus members, Rae laid down a condition of his own. He said he's only interested in being interim leader if the vote for permanent leader is put off for 18 to 24 months.

Under the party's constitution, the leadership vote should be held in October. However, the party's board is proposing to hold a special "virtual" convention on June 18, at which delegates will be asked to amend the constitution to allow the leadership vote to be postponed for up to two years.

Apps has said a broad consensus has emerged in favour of choosing a permanent successor to Ignatieff in the fall of 2012.

Rae said the party must put aside its seemingly perpetual leadership politics if it is to recover from the May 2 thrashing.

"At some point, people are going to have to say, 'Is this rebuild serious?' Because if it is, then this exclusive focus on leadership politics has got to come to an end for a while."

Until now, Montreal MP Marc Garneau was the only Liberal to express interest in the interim leadership. Given Rae's decision, Garneau said he wants to consult with his supporters before determining whether he should withdraw from the race.

"Obviously, when someone like Bob Rae comes into the picture, that is pause for thought," Garneau told CBC-TV.

In his letter to caucus colleagues, Rae wrote: "After the worst election defeat in our history, it is vital that we come together as a party and engage directly with Canadians about what matters to them.

"The pursuit of social justice and a sustainable prosperity in a united Canada has to remain our focus. We cannot afford to get caught up in internal wrangling."

Rae said he's a "glass-half-full person" who believes the centrist party can come back from near oblivion, provided all Liberals pull together.

"There is a strong need for a party that is not caught in the trap of ideological excess. We need to use the talents of every member of the Liberal team right across the country."

So, say one thing while planning on making it happen another way? He didn't outright lie, I suppose, technically. He is allowed, I suppose, to change his mind. However, I wonder if this isn't just another version of the shell game the liberals have been playing on the Canadian public for so many years. The Chretian Red Book has numerous cases of "What I said, is not what I meant" and 'No, no, you didn't understand properly what you read' and "I will get rid of the GST" (great untruthful mileage on that one). Is he so sure that the public's political attention span is so small that they wouldn't remember back to May? People are distrustful enough of what our politicians say, this won't help things change that notion or help increase his chances of tumbling Harper.

I can almost guarantee it'll get worked into counter ads put out by the CPC.

In a way, I hope he does clench the brass ring. It'll probably help give the CPC another four year run at no cost to themselves.

My  :2c:



 
More, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, about Bob Rae, would be Liberal leader:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/jeffrey-simpson/the-last-man-standing-will-be-bob-rae/article2302152/
The last man standing will be … Bob Rae

JEFFREY SIMPSON

From Saturday's Globe and Mail
Published Saturday, Jan. 14, 2012

In the next federal election, perhaps in 2015, Bob Rae will have been gone from being the NDP premier of Ontario for two decades. By that time, a large swath of the Canadian voting public, especially those under 40, will remember nothing of those tumultuous times. Outside Ontario, chances are that voters would know nothing about those years, just as Ontarians wouldn’t have clear opinions about Mike Harcourt’s years as premier of B.C. or Don Getty’s as premier of Alberta.

Of course, the Harper Conservatives will try to remind people of Mr. Rae’s time as premier and paint it with the blackest of colours. That’s how the Conservatives do politics: Tear down opposition leaders. The Conservative campaign against Mr. Rae has already begun. It will continue through the next election because, barring unexpected developments, Mr. Rae will lead the Liberals in that campaign.

Mr. Rae is the “interim” Liberal leader. In theory, the leadership race is supposed to start late next winter; in practice, it has begun with only one candidate, Mr. Rae. There is, frankly, no one else. If there were, Mr. Rae could leave.

Liberals can dream of Justin Trudeau, except he has ruled out a leadership bid. They can think of New Brunswick MP Dominic LeBlanc, who might be ready for prime time some years from now. They can ponder Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty. But the more they ponder, the more they’ll realize that the last man standing will be Bob Rae.

Twice, the Liberal Party passed over Mr. Rae – once for Stéphane Dion, once for Michael Ignatieff. Mr. Rae was the most experienced, the best speaker, the more natural politician – yet, he lost twice.

Yes, his time as NDP premier counted against him with some Liberals, either because they couldn’t forget his lacerating attacks on their party before he switched sides, or because they feared those years would be used against him to telling effect.

There were other, deeper reasons. Mr. Rae never gave the Liberals a clear enough narrative why he wanted to be leader and where he wanted to go. He offered the party himself and his talents, and they weren’t enough.

When dealing with his time as NDP premier, Mr. Rae can’t find the right narrative even now. Being a proud man, he defends those years, talking correctly about the difficulties of the recession Ontario faced, the challenges he overcame, the progress he made – although the generalized historical view is that of a buffeted and unsuccessful government. Ontarians apparently thought so. They decisively dumped the NDP at the first opportunity.

Having poured his reflections into books and speeches, Mr. Rae left the NDP. Here’s where the narrative failed. In appealing to Liberals for their votes, he never explained why he and the Liberal Party could achieve objectives (other than taking power) that the NDP couldn’t.

Mr. Rae never told Canadians why liberalism trumped social democracy, or why the Liberals reflected better than the NDP what he came to believe in. Now, the party desperately needs that narrative to bring at least some of those former Liberals back.

Mr. Rae can seek the leadership again as a way of personal vindication: At his age, and with his innate love of politics, it’s hard to imagine him preferring a law firm to leading the Liberal Party. Politics was injected into his blood early – first at university, then as a young NDP MP. It still courses in his veins. He’s a man of many interests beyond family, but one trumps all: politics.

Beleaguered Liberals could have fallen into factional infighting, as shattered parties often do. Under Mr. Rae, harmony has reigned in caucus, fundraising has picked up, media exposure has been won, and Mr. Rae has earned the highest badge of partisan honour: personal attacks from the Conservatives.

He pledged when becoming “interim” leader not to seek the job thereafter. A way will be found around that inconvenient, but not insuperable, impediment.


Simpson makes an uncharacteristically serious political misjudgement: it doesn't matter all that much what the "under 30s" think - they don't vote. The "over 50s" vote in disproportionately large numbers and they will either remember Rae or the Conservative "attack" campaign, which will be vicious, will remind them of why he is a poor choice for Canada.

I have met Bob Rae on a few occasions, I rather like him, as a person; he is thoughtful, well spoken and, generally, likable - but he will be none of those things to most Canadian voters when the Tory attack machine gets through with him.

I'll repeat what I've said elsewhere: we all have an interest in the Liberal Party of Canada doing a good job of rebuilding: they, not the NDP, are the "government in waiting" we want and need. The Liberals need to pick a good leader for 2015 ~ maybe Rae can serve for 2012 and 2013, but someone else will be needed to lead the party back to official opposition status.
 
If Paul Martin and the 'Blue Liberals' are backing Sheila Copps like it appeared on this morning's news, the Liberals will have a better chance challenging the CPC in '15, than they would with Rae.

When the Tory machine kicks into high gear, no doubt the record of all time for proroguement will be exposed as Bob Rae as Ontario Premier.


Regards
G2G
 
Good2Golf said:
If Paul Martin and the 'Blue Liberals' are backing Sheila Copps like it appeared on this morning's news, the Liberals will have a better chance challenging the CPC in '15, than they would with Rae.

When the Tory machine kicks into high gear, no doubt the record of all time for proroguement will be exposed as Bob Rae as Ontario Premier.


Regards
G2G


The contest this weekend, at this convention, is for Party President, the organizational manager of the Liberal Party of Canada, and Ms. Copps is one of the front-runners.

Rae is likely to contest for Party Leader, the leader of the party in parliament and prime minister in waiting, when that brave soul is, eventually elected.

I'm not sure Ms. Copps will make life as easy for Mr. Rae as outgoing Party President Alf Apps (not a close relation, as far as I know, to the great Syl Apps) is doing/has done.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
More, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, about Bob Rae, would be Liberal leader:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/jeffrey-simpson/the-last-man-standing-will-be-bob-rae/article2302152/

Simpson makes an uncharacteristically serious political misjudgement: it doesn't matter all that much what the "under 30s" think - they don't vote. The "over 50s" vote in disproportionately large numbers and they will either remember Rae or the Conservative "attack" campaign, which will be vicious, will remind them of why he is a poor choice for Canada.
...


I've mentioned before that I follow a regular poll done by CARP - a seniors' advocacy organization; the latest result are:

Conservative     45.0 %
Liberal            21.5 %
NDP                 13.3 %
Green Party          3.4 %
Bloc Quebecois      0 %
OTHER                  0.5 %
UNDECIDED      16.4 %

The poll is not scientific and it is skewed towards Men (67.4% of respondents) living in Ontario (61.2% of respondents) but it matters because, statistically, people over ago 50 vote in disproportionately high numbers so national, scientific polls are usually wrong because they count the preferences of young Canadians, under 30s, as having equal "value" as those of older Canadians. While their opinions have equal merit their "voting intentions" do not predict outcomes because those young people do not vote. Thus, if the current polls show e.g. The Conservatives at 35% and the NDP at 25% we ought to guess that the real, voting booth, outcome is something like Conservatives 37.5% and NDP 20% because the young voters are, disproportionately pro-NDP but their unwillingness to "get out and vote" will cost the NDP and the disproportionate voting of the seniors will benefit the Tories.
 
Good2Golf said:
If Paul Martin and the 'Blue Liberals' are backing Sheila Copps like it appeared on this morning's news, the Liberals will have a better chance challenging the CPC in '15, than they would with Rae.

When the Tory machine kicks into high gear, no doubt the record of all time for proroguement will be exposed as Bob Rae as Ontario Premier.


Regards
G2G

In that case, i'm cheering for Rae!  Go Rae!!!  ;D
 
A report from the Liberal convention. I would be interested to discover what exactly the DNC operatives told the Liberal Party (and of course will any Canadian news organization outside of Sun TV even report the LPC has invited American political operatives to instruct them on how to win elections):

http://www.atory01.com/blog/2012/1/14/based-on-today-the-conservatives-will-have-a-long-reign.html

Based on today, the Conservatives will have a long reign
Saturday, January 14, 2012 at 7:26PM

Earlier today I said I thought I was in a time warp with the present Liberal convention reminding me of some of our PC Party ones from the 1990s. As the sessions wrapped up today, I haven’t changed my position. Even a few Liberals thought I made a good point.

Today they had some very informative sessions. One that stands out for me was led by two of Obama’s operatives who played a large role in both rebuilding the Democratic Party and in getting Obama elected. A lot of cutting edge stuff, well thought out and explained. If Liberals thought this was the magic bullet that would lead them back to government, it probably won’t. It was clear that even using their tools, any rebuilding would take years, certainly not months. It wasn’t a quick fix for an ailing party.

At the same time what they suggested implementing requires a lot of money in the initial stages, something the Grits are quite short of right now. It also requires a large volunteer base, I would suggest even the Tories would have a tough time implementing the measures they suggested. But for a political junkie such as myself, it was fascinating to see how they put it all together against strong opposition from the party establishment.

Speaking of which, we are down to the wire in the race for the presidency of the party. Sheila Copps versus Mike Crawley has been an interesting fight to watch. Some Liberals I spoke to thought it was Copps’ to lose and feel she did with her press conference. Others think the old guard of the party will rally to her in the end. I tend to think Copps will still pull it off, but wouldn’t it be something if the membership rallies around Crawley in an attempt to force change on the party?

In the end though does it really matter? The public couldn’t care less about who is the President of the Liberal Party. The only people they see are the leader and the MPs. They judge their performance and look for a party that can deliver on their promises and which can bring forward realistic policies that mean something to Canadians. The Liberals are a long way from doing that.

With merger with the NDP being the forbidden topic at this convention I expect that my feeling of being in a time warp will continue. The Liberals will still prefer to talk about how they are different to the NDP as opposed to how they are similar.

Back in 2002 when Harper first sat down with Joe Clark to talk about a potential merger, as a party researcher, I made a chart (later updated in 2003) of all of our PC and Reform/Canadian Alliance election platforms and matched them up word for word. I did the same for the party constitutions. We agreed on something like 75-80% of the items. I wonder if anyone has done this for the Liberal and NDP platforms. Just how different are they?

Liberals will come out of this convention invigorated. They will have policy conventions that will convince themselves that they have found the way into voters’ hearts. They will wait for the NDP to collapse, they will wait for the NDP to fall into 3rd place in the next election and maybe the one after that too, and even the one after that. All of that sounds all too familiar for me, but it will keep the Conservatives in power.

Ipolitics.ca has excellent coverage of Convention 2012. Be sure to check out their coverage at

http://www.ipolitics.ca/liberalconvention2012/
 
They can spin it any way they want. Hold their conventions and end up anointing the most likely suspect.

Ontario knows Sheila Copps as a shill shrieking harpy bent on making people become liberals, whether they want to be or not.

Ontario remembers Bob Rae as the Premier that killed Ontario, created Rae Days and chased industry out of the Province for ten years. He's also playing word games with his Interim Leader\ no Premier bullshit. People can see his power play as plain as day and aren't willing to give him a government, while he's playing the same con artist games he used so effectively when he was elected Premier.

Both need Ontario to win. Whether it's the convention or the government.

Neither has Ontario, and won't get it anytime soon.

Once burnt, twice shy.

 
That was more a slap to Mr. Hudak's sorry miserable campaign than anything Mr. McGuinty earned.............................
 
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